Michael R. Rahm - The Mosaic Co.
Analyst · Don Carson with Susquehanna
All right. Thanks, Joc and good morning, Don. Yeah. Let me just – I think we can treat it in a fairly simple way. In 2018, we expect that global shipments will grow almost 2% or about 1.3 million tonnes. And with the idling of Plant City, if you look at our 10-K, that plant has produced about a 1.5 million tonnes over the last three years or so. So, you have about a 2.8 million tonne hole to fill. And if you look at the new capacity that's scheduled to come on stream next year, we believe Ma'aden will probably produce 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes and the fourth hub that comes up, probably I think OCP has indicated that will not come up until the first quarter, so call that a 0.5 million to 750,000 tonnes. That gives you about 2 million to 2.75 million tonnes of potential new supply to fill that hole. So I think in the best case, there will need to be a few more tonnes coming from the rest of the world. And our plan is to optimize operations, try to squeeze more tons out of our existing plants in Florida. So I think, in short, we talked about – this hopefully shifts this cycle forward or up about a year in terms of the overall supply and demand balance. With respect to China, we certainly admit or recognize that we made an early call on China and jumped the gun a bit. If you go back to our Analyst Day, we had talked about China exports this year dropping into the 7 million to 8 million tonne range and clearly, we were early on that. And part of that is due to the fact that demand has just been so good throughout the world, whether it's been in Pakistan, Indonesia or whatever. If you look at the Chinese Custom Statistics, there are some very, very impressive increases in Chinese exports to the major Asian markets. But we do think that and Corrine can probably comment on some of the trends. We do think there will be significant structural changes that take place in China and over time, we think that industry is going to evolve into one that's a little bit smaller, that's going to be more profitable and operate at a higher and more consistent rate. And the bottom line there in terms of our global long-term supply and demand, we still think China needs to be an exporter or supplier of probably 6 million to 8 million tonnes of high analysis phosphate products to meet global demand.