Gary Heminger
Analyst · Macquarie Capital
Sure, Chi. And I think we've chatted about this in the past. As we look at the crude going from North to South and West to East, first of all, the Canadian crude and we all know the dynamics in the system is trying to expand the crude systems into the Gulf Coast for Canadian supply. Then you look at the Bakken come down to the Niobrara, eventually to the Permian and Eagle Ford. The Canadian and Bakken and Permian crude as well, all finds its way to the Cushing hub. The initial pipeline that, I understand midmonth here, will be started up. That will be reversed from Cushing to the Gulf Coast, is around 150,000 barrels per day or so, of output. But when you look at the Bakken, and I'm understanding 20,000 to 30,000 barrels per calendar month are being added each month, and you look at the take away capacity from the Bakken, the take away capacity from Canada and then the Cushing barrels, excuse me, the Permian barrels coming into Cushing, we still find that there's going to be a substantial amount of supply available vis-à-vis the amount of export capacity you have out of that Cushing market. And then the other point that I want to make is as you take a look at, at those crudes that eventually may want to find their way to the Gulf Coast, and I think you have a very, very strong competitive force being the Eagle Ford's crude that is continuing to grow each month, and in order to be able to get those crudes and transport those crudes through the Gulf Coast, I see it that you have to go through the Eagle Ford to get there. Therefore, I think it's going to allow differentials to be wider back in those refiners in the Mid-Continent and Midwest that have the ability to take those crudes into the marketplace. They're going to have a transportation differential, a timing differential, and I think you are going to find more competition in the Gulf Coast. And where that competition is really going to play out I believe, is the imported barrel that is coming in as well as some offshore barrels that could come in into the Gulf Coast, either Louisiana corridor or the Houston corridor. I just see for some time that the friction of those barrels that are trying to pass through to the Gulf Coast is still going to be a very, very competitive market, therefore it's going to, as I said before, allow benefits back to Midwest, Mid-Continent refiners.