Earnings Labs

MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 23, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the MSA Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lorene and I will be your operator for today’s call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Ken Krause. Mr. Krause, you may begin.

Kenneth Krause

Management

Good morning everyone and welcome to our third quarter earnings conference call for 2014. I am Ken Krause, Executive Director of Global Finance and Assistant Treasurer for MSA. Joining me on the call this morning are Bill Lambert, President and Chief Executive Officer; Stacy McMahan, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Ron Herring, President of MSA Europe; Nish Vartanian, President of MSA North America; Kerry Bove, President of MSA International. Our third quarter press release was issued last night and is available on our website at www.msasafety.com. This morning, Bill Lambert will provide his commentary on our quarter. Stacy will then review our financials and then Bill will conclude with his closing comments. After that, we will open up the call for your questions. Before we begin, I need to remind everyone that the matters discussed on this call, excluding historical information, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include but are not limited to, all projections and anticipated levels of future performance, and timing of new product approvals and related shipments. Forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. These risks, uncertainties, and other factors are detailed in our filings with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K which was filed on February 24, 2014. You are strongly urged to review all such filings for a more detailed discussion of such risks. Our SEC filings can be obtained at no charge at www.sec.gov, and on our Investor Relations website. MSA undertakes no duty to publicly update any forward-looking statements made on this call except as required by law. In addition, we have included certain non-GAAP financial measures as part of our discussion today. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered replacements for GAAP results. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our Investor Relations website at investors.msasafety.com within the financial information section. And with that, let me introduce MSA’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Bill Lambert.

William M. Lambert

Management

Thank you very much Ken and good morning everyone. As always, I want to begin by saying thank you for joining us this morning on this conference call and for your continued interest in MSA. Presumably, all of you have seen our third quarter press release which was issued last night and you have our financial figures with all comparisons corresponding to the equivalent period in 2013. I will begin this morning by reviewing the highlights of our third quarter, and I will give you an update on the G1 SCBA certification process. I also will share with you further details about some of our other exciting new core product offerings and give you more detail on a strategic initiative that will soon reach an inflection point. After that I will turn the call over to Stacy for a review of our financial results and then we'll open up the call for your questions. So why don’t we begin. Sales in the third quarter were $275 million, which, as you know, includes continuing operations only and excludes $15 million of discontinued operations revenue from our South African distribution business and our Zambian operations. Revenue of $275 million reflects a 4% increase from a year ago on a reported basis and 5% increase in local currency terms. Generating profitable growth in our five core product areas is a key pillar of our overall strategy. As a quick reminder, core products includes fixed gas and flame detection systems what we refer to as FGFD, portable gas detection instruments, industrial head protection products, fall protection products, and supplied air respirators where self-contained breathing apparatus or SCBA, is the principal product. In the third quarter sales of these products represented 74% of total revenue. We were able to grow our core sales by 6%…

Stacy McMahan

Management

Thank you, Bill and good morning to you. I will now share some further insight into our third quarter financial performance. Additional information will be available when we file our Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission later today. As Bill mentioned, sales from continuing operations in the third quarter were $275 million, up $10 million or 4% from the prior year on a reported basis and up 5% on a local currency basis. Looking at the sequential quarter comparison, local currency sales have decreased by 2% compared to the second quarter. Across core products revenue was flat when compared to the second quarter with stronger shipments of FGFD being offset by a lower level of SCBA sales in North America and weaker head protection results across our emerging markets. Within the non-core portfolio, a lower level of fire helmets failed across Europe and North America drove a 6% sequential to quarter decline. Order activity was healthy in the quarter primarily driven by G1 SCBA orders and additional amounts received on our large ballistic helmet contracts in Western Europe. But we see an opportunity to clear a meaningful amount of backlog in the quarter. Shipping activity is highly dependent on the timing of final approval for the G1 SCBA. Additionally business conditions had become uneven in certain key emerging market geographies. As a result we are cautious in our outlook for the end of this year and early next year. As you may have noticed in our earnings release last night, we have provided an additional exhibit that highlights sales growth in the quarter and year by segment and by product. While I will give a high level review of our sales by product and segment here today, please refer to that table for additional detail. As Bill already…

William M. Lambert

Management

Thank you, Stacy. While challenges associated with SCBA approval delays continued to weigh on us in the third quarter, the progress we are making at driving a higher level of core product sales throughout the world continues to generate value for our shareholders. As we near the end of our historic 100th year in business we remain committed to the pillars of our corporate strategy that have provided value to our shareholders over the past several years even as we battle through various challenges. While our company has evolved in many different ways over the past 100 years, our spirit of innovation and our mission of protecting people's health and safety have remain unchanged. Thank you for your attention and your interest in our company this morning. At this time Nish Vartanian, Kerry Bove, and Ron Herring have joined Stacy, Ken, and me and we will be happy to take any questions you may have. Please remember that MSA does not give what is referred to as guidance and that precludes most discussion related to our expectations for future sales and earnings. Having said that, we will now open the call up to your questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). And our first question comes from Edward Marshall from Sidoti & Company. Please go ahead. Edward Marshall - Sidoti & Company: Good morning guys.

William M. Lambert

Management

Hi, good morning Ed. Edward Marshall - Sidoti & Company: So, I guess I wanted to start with Europe because I thought that was a pretty good result there on the top line. And I think I caught it, but I just wanted to confirm did you say that was related to sales to say the Middle East and Africa due to energy?

William M. Lambert

Management

That's right Ed. Core products really drove the results in the quarter over in Europe specifically gas detection and SCBA. And a big piece of that was the Middle East as you heard. In fact the Middle East continued to be a success story for us this year up nearly 40% year-to-date and lot of that is FGFD business but plus supplied air respirator business SCBA. Edward Marshall - Sidoti & Company: And then I wanted to talk about if I could, the R&D expense which in the quarter was probably the highest, I think I have ever seen from you guys but really our pace kind of the last 12 months. Is that one time in nature, was that related to the SCBA, what might be driving that, I know you are working on several new products but it seemed a little bit high?

William M. Lambert

Management

Well that was a 9% increase over the quarter a year ago. If you look at it on a year-to-date basis we are running about 4.4% of sales versus 4.2% of sales a year ago. So it is not that out of line but it was definitely an indication of the increased emphasis we are putting on getting some new products out the door. Also related to that Ed as we have more of our focus on those core areas of the business be it fixed gas and flame detection, portable gas detection, supplied air respirators, fall protection, or head protection, those are the areas of the business that require more R&D and are more technology related, require us to have greater investments in those types of technologies to gain advantage. So, I think yes, to answer your question the third quarter was high on a standalone basis. But year-to-date it is only moderately higher and I think on an ongoing you would expect to see MSA probably in that 4% to 4.5% of sales range for R&D expense. Edward Marshall - Sidoti & Company: Okay, and then finally I wanted to talk about the SCBA test and I am not sure what the relevant measure that is meaningful for us to kind of understand where we are in the process. Obviously we are in extra innings here. We anticipate it was going to be out here already, but I am just curious is it one test, is it two test that might be coming up the pipeline and you put 400 hours in, how much more hours do you anticipate or actually necessary for the approvals to kind of happen. Whatever you think maybe they might be meaningful kind of measure for us to kind of really understand exactly where we are in the process?

William M. Lambert

Management

Ed what I tried to indicate in my commentary was that there are no more tests to be run. We have completed in the past all the necessary testing by the various approval agencies. And I indicated we are in that final review stage with the agencies and what I mean by that is that they look over the quality assurance package that we provide, they look over the drawings, they look over the instructions for use, the warnings, the limitations of use that we provide to our customers. Most recently last week they asked us for a revision to one of our instructions. So, we are kind of going through that paperwork stage now where they are looking at our warnings, looking at our limitations of use, looking at our instructions to operators, and they provide commentary in that regard. So, that's that final review process. All the heavy lifting so to speak, all the testing that I described on those 55 SCBA that’s behind us and we have passed all of that testing. Edward Marshall - Sidoti & Company: Okay, so it is just a matter of the editing the document at this point I guess is essentially the way to look at it?

William M. Lambert

Management

Well, they approved the entire SCBA which is inclusive of not just the product itself and how it performs but also the instructions that we provide users, the limitations of use that we provide and the warnings that we provide. Edward Marshall - Sidoti & Company: Okay. Great, thanks guys, I appreciate it.

William M. Lambert

Management

Thank you Ed.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Shivangi Tipnis from Global Hunter. Please go ahead.

Shivangi Tipnis - Global Hunter Securities

Analyst

Hi guys, my first question is on the SCBA, you mentioned that you had the order increased $70 million between Q2 and Q3, can you just talk about how the orders trended between since pre the list of being asked that as getting into Q4 and what were the cost impacts on the inventory since then?

William M. Lambert

Management

Let me just -- let me correct you. We indicated that our total backlog for supplied air respirators was $70 million. That was up about $30 million from same quarter. So the sequential increase was about $30 million. And a big portion of that was G1 SCBA related here in North America and to a lesser degree G1 related in Europe, primarily in the Middle East. And then your question is what might be the backlog as we look at the Q4. We don’t provide guidance in that regard. I will say that our continuing order book for the G1 SCBA is quite healthy and quite strong. We are very pleased by that. We will have an impact on the balance sheet certainly as we ramp up production. We are bringing inventory in, we are producing product at a sub assembly level so that we can as quickly as possible convert those sub assemblies in the final assembly and see shipments during the fourth quarter.

Shivangi Tipnis - Global Hunter Securities

Analyst

Okay, thank you. And on the 2.0 platform, you talked about some financial implications in the FG and you also detailed as to the headcounts and move and all that, so is it possible that you can actually quantify these measures for us?

William M. Lambert

Management

Ken, I look to you.

Kenneth Krause

Management

What I would say Shivangi, Bill spoke a little bit about exit charges that we might incur in the first quarter. What I would like to say on that is one of those exit charges are dependent upon how we finish 2014. So a lot of those charges are yet to be determined but we will know much better, we will have much better information as we close out the year and we report the year end results in February. So, I would say maybe stay tuned on that front but right now we do expect some short-term increases in the effective tax rate associated with the effective -- associated with the exit charges. But we still remain confident in our ability to go after that 200 basis points 1to 300 basis points of improvement longer-term in the effective rate.

Shivangi Tipnis - Global Hunter Securities

Analyst

Sounds good, thank you guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Stanley Elliot from Stifel. Please go ahead. Stanley Elliot - Stifel Nicolaus & Company: Good morning everyone, thank you for taking my call. Quick question on the oil and gas businesses so it was prevalent through most of your products but with oil kind of really taking a step down, kind of hovering near 80 is there a price where your customers have started saying that they would be willing to delay projects in terms of some of their capital spending which might impact some of your fixed gas or even portable gas or head protection business?

William M. Lambert

Management

Yes, it is a very good question Stan and I don’t think there is a -- there is not a clear answer one way or other but let me give you a sense of what we are thinking here. Certainly as crude prices fall that is going to crimp oil producers profit margins and eventually it is going to deter them from making the necessary investments in exploration and production upstream. So, depending on just how low oil gets it is going to impact the oil producers view of their capital spend. Now to put it in context, we estimate our total -- from our total sales about one third to 40% of our sales are related to oil and gas, the oil and gas industry, upstream, midstream, downstream. The biggest impact really then would be on the fixed gas and flame detection side of our business and yet two thirds of that fixed gas and flame detection business is really day to day operations and maintenance and repair of and replacement of sensors and the instruments. So we are really looking at about one third of our FGFD business and how might it be impacted as capital spending might slow down or be pushed out. It is really on a project-by-project basis with the oil producers. We have seen some projects be delayed or be pushed out into 2015 but, is it so meaningful or material to us. We are not seeing that as of yet. I would say that our fixed gas and flame detection business year-to-date is right at plan. It is growing at about mid single digits over a year ago. We don’t believe that the head protection side or the portable gas protection side is really going to be impacted here. Those are primarily related to downstream activities and what goes on in the plants or refineries during a turnaround operation and so we see less of an impact on portable gas detection and in head protection. Probably the area of risk we have is related to FGFD and I will try to give you kind of a sense of what we see and what kind of an impact we might feel there. Stanley Elliot - Stifel Nicolaus & Company: Well, that’s such a nice replacement business and good margins, it should continue regardless would be my guess. For the product liability and the quarter on the FG has that changed anything or is this just kind more of a timing type of event?

Stacy McMahan

Management

It is timing Stanley. It is related to the progress of our insurance litigation. And we essentially just didn’t have anything on the docket that generated expense but we do expect that expense will return. Stanley Elliot - Stifel Nicolaus & Company: And I hate to ask for anything relating to guidance but when we talk about higher SG&A spend in the next year there you are talking about your percentage points of difference as a percent of sales or is there a dollar number that we should gauge just to trying to get a better feel for the guidance?

Stacy McMahan

Management

You know, I think you will see something very similar to what you have seen in the last couple of quarters. So I would just use history as a bit of a guide because we have had some strategic initiatives already baked into the SG&A. Stanley Elliot - Stifel Nicolaus & Company: And would that be history at like the FPIC and centennial anniversary type expenses?

Stacy McMahan

Management

I would look at the last couple of quarters. Stanley Elliot - Stifel Nicolaus & Company: Okay, and then one last question, as far as tax rate, when we look at 200 to 300 basis points of improvement in the 2016 and beyond, will that be off of the higher effective tax rate that we are looking at for 2015 or would that be kind of more historical and normalized numbers?

Stacy McMahan

Management

Historical normalized numbers. Stanley Elliot - Stifel Nicolaus & Company: Perfect, congratulations guys.

Stacy McMahan

Management

Thanks so much.

William M. Lambert

Management

Thanks Stan.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Richard Eastman from Robert W. Baird. Please go ahead. Richard Eastman – Robert W. Baird & Co: Yes, good morning.

William M. Lambert

Management

Hi, good morning Rick. Richard Eastman – Robert W. Baird & Co: Maybe speak of who has got the backlog -- a really good feel for the backlog on the GI. You had mentioned you have largely replaced your military helmet shipments regarding the backlog and orders. But how does the FGFD backlog look and maybe even kind of SCBA backlog non-G1, both of those businesses can be subject to some lumpy shipments and backlog timing, how do they look relative to your sales here in this quarter which were quite good?

William M. Lambert

Management

Rick I will ask Ken Krause. I think Ken has a better understanding there.

Kenneth Krause

Management

Yes, sure. I would say without going into too much detail that overall the backlog is healthy. We specifically pointed out the backlog in the SCBA but outside of the SCBA and we look at fixed gas and flame detection, I would classify it as healthy levels going into the fourth quarter 2014 here. Richard Eastman – Robert W. Baird & Co: Okay, and the -- again timing wise when we look at larger shipments year-over-year fourth quarter over fourth quarter are we going to hold up okay there, I mean will we be able to match that, or we have any really tough comparisons from fourth quarter last year?

William M. Lambert

Management

Stacy do you want to take that.

Stacy McMahan

Management

I think in Q4 quarter last year we did have a lump of larger orders that shipped. So -- but overall the quarter was a fairly a lower quarter historically. So you are going to have two things moving. We have the SCBA being kind of at a lower level because we were deep into sort of our waiting period for the G1. But then you also see that there were some larger orders that shipped in the fourth quarter are mainly project business related to FGFD. So it is going to be a mixed bag. And our order book indicates again we should have a fairly healthy fourth quarter totally dependent on that SCBA G1 shipping.

Kenneth Krause

Management

You know the only thing I would add Stacy is related to the emerging markets and our finish last year in the emerging markets. It was extremely strong point for us to finish the year and as Bill had indicated in his comments, those emerging markets are bit concerning in certain areas. So, that might be a challenging comp as we finish the year Rick. Richard Eastman – Robert W. Baird & Co: Okay, and then could you just kind of leading me right into my second question here but just regarding the emerging markets, Bill you threw out a couple of warning flags on Brazil and I think we have all kind of being tracking their economy, tracking it down I guess. Asia, you took some incremental restructuring, it sounds like in international does that marketplace stay with some positive growth, I mean low single digit. Ken you mentioned a tough compare in the fourth quarter and it was 20% compare. But over the next maybe 12 months, should our caution start with a negative sign or can we at least feel like we have got enough new product momentum and to at least grow the international piece?

William M. Lambert

Management

Yeah, let me take a stab at it and then I will ask Stacy or Ken or Kerry or Ron to jump in here. Rick as you know our emerging markets include both those areas that are in the European segment as well as what we consider the international segment. And while we saw growth in our emerging markets we look at all of those. In the third quarter we saw growth of almost 11% I think, maybe little bit higher. Ken is looking at me like it was maybe 13% in the third quarter. I think the caution flag is out. You know when we look at Europe I will try to break this apart a little bit for us, when I look at Europe, the European emerging markets were up 39% in the third quarter and that was related to as I indicated earlier, the fixed gas and flame detection project business across the region but most notably in the Middle East. And we had large order of SCBA shipments in the Middle East. But when we also consider Europe we look at Russia which is a part of that, our emerging market there. The economic outlook is quite poor there and it is very, very difficult for us to predict what the future may hold there. That then spills over into the Eastern European markets. And so that is why we have got the warning flag out in the European emerging markets. When we look at international which consists of Africa and Latin America, Southeast Asia, and China they were up combined 3% in the quarter. But China was up on large order shipments in SCBA and fixed gas and flame detection. But it was against a weaker comp. And we can't, we don’t expect to see…

Stacy McMahan

Management

It was 31%. Richard Eastman – Robert W. Baird & Co: 31 okay, and then Stacy just last follow on I promise, all of this is kind of local currency commentary but presumably currency as an impact on sales strengthening dollar certainly becomes bigger issue in the fourth quarter and into 2015, correct?

Stacy McMahan

Management

Yes, it certainly does. That’s our -- and that are flagged. Richard Eastman – Robert W. Baird & Co: Okay, thank you.

Stacy McMahan

Management

You are welcome.

William M. Lambert

Management

Thanks Rick.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brian Rafn from Morgan Dempsey. Please go ahead. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: Good morning everybody.

Stacy McMahan

Management

Hi Brian. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: A question for you, well you talked a little bit about some of the weakness in the emerging markets and I am assuming you are talking from a sales revenue standpoint. In those areas like Brazil and like Argentina where you may be having some more difficulty, are the follow on big core activities also finding kind of maxed erosion with the decline in sales?

William M. Lambert

Management

Are you referring specifically to Brazil and Argentina. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: Maybe I am just opening it up in emerging markets, where you are seeing difficulties in markets maybe from the standpoint of sales revenue. Are you also seeing the follow-on where it is applicable, a weakness kind of in the long-term we are seeing fall off in sales, we are also seeing less big core activity in the business?

Stacy McMahan

Management

Well our emerging market orders have been sort of mixed for the quarter. So we see a good pace in the Middle East as we talked about. But we have seen a pull back in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America due to the conditions we cited earlier. And the relatively flat order pace excluding any large one time shipments in Southeast Asia and China. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: Okay, alright. Let me ask on G1, you guys had a great presentation at your Analyst Day. Bill and I know this is tough question, is there any possibility that that could be delayed beyond the fourth quarter or is there any communications back and forth with some of the regulatory that it might go into 2015 before a decision is made?

William M. Lambert

Management

Brian, that is such a hard question to answer. Is there any possibility based on what we have been through over the last 18 months I would say yes, there is a possibility. I feel that it is unlikely but there is always that possibility. But it is out of our control at this point, at this moment. I know that the product that we have submitted, the products we have submitted have performed really, really well in all of the testing, and all of the testing is behind it. It is now a matter of paperwork review and assurances and I really feel based on our history, based on all the decades we have been in business and we have been having product approved NIOSH and by the SCI that we feel pretty confident we will have this in the fourth quarter. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: Yeah, good answer. Let me ask you Bill from the standpoint of the new G1 SCBA, with the $70 million backlog do you get the sense where you are on the threshold of a new product launch that you may see many or a few years in the front end of that product, have fairly substantial sales growth, or is the backlog such that it is kind of onetime $70 million and then you will be more at normal. I am just trying to get a sense of what pent up demand with this new G1 might be over multiple years?

William M. Lambert

Management

Yeah, let me try to clarify something first Brian. The $70 million is for all of our supplied air respirator products that’s inclusive of more than the G1. Now most of that third quarter ramp up in backlog was related to the G1. But of the $70 million I would say maybe a little bit more than half to two thirds is related to the G1 SCBA which is still very, very healthy. Now is that sustainable or I guess what you are asking really is the growth sustainable in the SCBA business. We think that it is. There are only two manufacturers in the industry right now who have approvals to the new NFPA standard. Both of those products are older generation products. The G1 is an entirely new generation of product. Two major manufacturers don’t have approval and so we believe there is great opportunity to gain market share with this product, with this platform. We are seeing it and I think it is reflective of the large backlog that we have of our ability to convert competitive accounts with this new platform product. So we feel very optimistic looking forward and we think it has got a pretty long runway. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: Okay, let me ask you on, I think you guys call the M7 that the self contained breathing apparatus that you still can sell, is that -- maybe not have a perpetual life span but once you get into active production delivery of the G1, is that phased out or is that kind of a second tier price point SCBA?

William M. Lambert

Management

Well I think what you will see is, you will see both of those things happening. It is definitely at a different price point than G1 SCBA. At a lower price point than the G1 SCBA. But overtime we would expect to see the M7XT phase out. That is just a natural attrition on that product. We will continue to have it in our product lines for likely the next five years to support those customers that are committed to the M7XT and are happy with it. But new SCBA sales will likely move towards, shift towards the G1 SCBA without question. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: Yeah, okay, anecdotally Bill any fire departments that just couldn’t wait any longer and may have purchased that for the G1 or is that really not applicable to that channel?

William M. Lambert

Management

No, I think it is applicable to that channel. I think there are a number of instances where fire departments who really believed in the G1, they were competitive accounts but for various reasons just could not wait any longer. So, there is a small percentage of our business that we actually lost because we did not have the G1 SCBA. And that is really unfortunate and we feel horrible about that but I think it is a little bit inevitable because the fire departments have got to move on and they have got to continue to do their work. They have issues like expiring cylinders in their inventories, expiring in a sense that their cylinders have gone to their full lifecycle of 15 years. They need to buy new SCBA, they need to buy new cylinders. And because we don’t have -- did not have the G1 SCBA they had to just commit to the current product line that they had which happened to be a competitive product line. So, we have lost a little bit of business, no question. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: Okay, alright. I am going to ask a little more of a strategic question Bill, when you guys get through 2015, 2016 on your Europe 2.0 kind of restructuring, you look at Europe from the standpoint of cost structure, productivity, efficiency, best practices, does Europe then move to parity with your operations in the United States or North America or will Europe be ahead and then causing maybe a restructure on the North American side?

William M. Lambert

Management

Well, I think that over the horizon that you have indicated Brian, it is aspirational that Europe would achieve operating margins similar to North America. I don’t foresee over the horizon you are indicating where Europe would actually have better operating margins than North America. And that is fundamentally driven quite honestly by top line growth and the ability to leverage those operating expenses. We don’t have any expectation that Europe is going to be able to grow at double digit growth over the next three to five years as you are indicating there. I just don’t think that is possible. Europe will be a much more efficient operation with a much lower tax base so they will be much more profitable and value generating. But to really expect them to get into kind of a leadership pace among all of our segments, I think that's -- I don’t think that's in the cards for the next three to five years. Albeit, I would be very happy if our European operations achieves operating margins similar to what we see today in North America. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: Okay, and just one final question, guys on the raw materials feed stocks, commodity inflation are you seeing anything in raw materials, inflation or deflation?

William M. Lambert

Management

We saw inflation and cost increases associated with high density polyethylene. There is something happening within the supply chain market, global supply chain market on high density polyethylene which we use in our hard hats. But we think that is only temporary. We think that the falling price of crude oil will ultimately result in lower costs for feed stocks. So we see that as a benefit and certainly an offset to whatever we see and the slight increases we have seen in high density polyethylene. So, a bit of a mix story there but I think that with oil prices now down around $80 a barrel we should ultimately see lower cost feed stocks. Brian Rafn – Morgan Dempsey Capital Management LLC: Thanks Bill, appreciate it.

William M. Lambert

Management

Thank you Brian.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Rudi Hokanson from Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Rudolph Hokanson - Barrington Research Associates

Analyst

Thank you. A lot of good questions have already been asked. Very quickly if it is possible to answer this, in terms of looking at the emerging markets and expected orders and areas as in the fixed gas detection, what kind of visibility do you have where you can see an order coming in the turnaround time where it becomes an actual sale?

William M. Lambert

Management

We have fairly good but not great visibility into that Rudi. The fixed gas and flame detection side of our business was a very long sales cycle part of our business. And what I mean by that is that we are working with the engineering and procurement contractors, early stages of projects in that business, and those are years in the making. Now the two thirds of our FGFD business which is maintenance related, which is replacement related, that is -- that has a little bit better clarity on it but again not great. Not great clarity for us. So, it is mixed.

Rudolph Hokanson - Barrington Research Associates

Analyst

As we look at emerging markets right now and you are talking about their volatility or the current economic conditions, it is more related to smaller individual units that would be sold such as head protection or something like that that you are not sure on the timing of when things may and may not come in rather than whether or not somebody would be making an order or placing an order through something related to fixed gas and fire detection?

William M. Lambert

Management

That means it is a very complex question because our emerging markets are made up of quite a few different areas and regions in the world. In the Latin American area I think you are absolutely right, it is related to the smaller orders or order pace associated with things like head protection or even supplied air respirators that we have seen. In some other large parts of the world like Southeast Asia and in China we have seen it is related to the fixed gas and flame detection, the larger orders. Those that are more related to capital spending.

Rudolph Hokanson - Barrington Research Associates

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I would now like turn to call over to Mr. Ken Krause for closing remarks.

Kenneth Krause

Management

Great, thank you so much. Seeing that we have no more questions, that concludes this morning's call. If you missed a portion of the conference, an audio replay will be available on our website for the next 90 days, as will a transcript of the call. On behalf of our entire team here, I want to thank you again for joining us. And we look forward to talking with you again soon. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.