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MSCI Inc. (MSCI)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 4, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MSCI Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Stephen Davidson, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Stephen C. Davidson - Head of Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Katherine. Good day and welcome to the MSCI fourth quarter and full-year 2015 earnings conference call. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release announcing our results for the quarter. A copy of the release and a slide presentation that we have prepared for this call may be viewed at msci.com under the Investor Relations tab. Let me remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, please see the risk factors and forward-looking statements in our most recent Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC. During today's call, in addition to GAAP results, we also refer to non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA expenses, adjusted EPS and free cash flow. We believe our non-GAAP measures facilitate meaningful period-to-period comparisons and provide a baseline for the evolution of results. You'll find a reconciliation of the equivalent GAAP terms in the earnings materials and an explanation of why we deem this information to be meaningful, as well as how management uses these measures on pages 26 to 29 of the earnings presentation. On the call today are Henry Fernandez, Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Qutub, Chief Financial Officer. With that, let me now turn the call over to Mr. Henry Fernandez. Henry? Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. I am very pleased to share our strong fourth quarter and full-year 2015 financial results with you. In my opening remarks, I will provide an update on how we are executing our strategy by focusing on the levers that will grow revenues,…

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Thanks, Henry, for the kind words. It's been a tremendous pleasure to work with MSCI teams, the board and our investors, but let's get into the results here. So, let's turn to slide 11 where I'll begin my overview of our financial results. Our results this quarter were strong with a 9% increase in revenue and a 1% decline in adjusted EBITDA expenses, driving a 22% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a 500 basis point increase in our adjusted EBITDA margin, 46.5%, including the impact of foreign currency exchange fluctuations. Just a quick couple comments on the results. We closed the acquisition of Insignis in the fourth quarter and the contribution to revenues and expenses was negligible. So we're not adjusting our numbers to derive an underlying organic growth. Our results also include higher interest cost from our bond offerings in November 2014 and August of 2015. As we stated last quarter, we're in the process of aligning our tax profile with our global operating footprint. And I am pleased to report that we're already seeing benefits, which are reflected in the decline of our operating tax rate for the full-year 2015. On that note, tax benefits in the quarter contributed $0.04 to adjusted EPS, which includes the impact of discrete items from prior periods, as well as a positive impact on our 2015 operating rate, which was 34.8%. The 9% decline in the weighted average shares outstanding year-over-year added about $0.06 to our adjusted EPS. Again, as a reminder in the slides that follow, we provide the impact of foreign currency fluctuations on our subscription revenue and costs, but we do not provide the impact of foreign currency fluctuations on our asset-based fees tied to average AUM, of which approximately two-thirds are invested in securities denominated in currencies other…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our first question comes from Alex Kramm from UBS.

Alex Kramm - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Can you – I guess both of you made some quick comments on the sales environment. So, maybe you can go back that a little bit and provide a little bit more detail, and clearly, your core customer base is probably suffering a little bit so far this year over the last few months. So, what are your hearing from clients in terms of willingness to buy new products. And also pricing I believe is going to be a big component on the Analytics side this year. So, what's the push back you're hearing on that in particular? Thanks. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: So, Alex, first of all, the market volatility that we've seen has not had any impact on our pipeline. Our pipeline continues to be healthy and solid and no impact on that. Secondly is that we have started rolling out price increases on Analytics and it's gone fairly well. So, we do not anticipate for now any kind of pushback by our clients. We did have very strong sales quarter both in one-time sales and also in recurring sales in the fourth quarter, which are focus there of that range of sales that we have had for quite a few quarters. And it's too early to tell whether that break is sustainable. We did well, but it's too early to tell and therefore, we feel good about the quarter. But we got to execute this quarter and the future quarters to see if we can break out of that range-bound that we have had for some time. In an environment of significant volatility, it's actually sometimes a positive environment for us, even though our clients are not feeling well because there's a lot of focus on risk, there is a lot of focus on understanding the performance of portfolios, there is a meaningful amount of money that flows into passive investments from active that we benefit and the like. And obviously, on the other side, budget gets a little more tight, approvals get longer and the like, but on balance, it has not affected us. And the last thing that I will say, Alex, is that we are typically a very a light indicator of any of this. It typically takes several quarters before any meaningful market volatility affects us on the subscription business. We obviously have seen the decline in values in ABF, but fortunately, not any meaningful amount of outflows.

Alex Kramm - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. That's helpful. Then I guess maybe secondly, just for Bob real quick on the tax rates, obviously, a nice guide down on the year-over-year perspective. Is that a good – at the midpoint, is that a good point to use for the full quarter – I'm sorry, for the full year every quarter? Or do you think it's actually going to trickle down throughout the year as you get, I guess, smarter with the tax rate? And then, related to that, what are your current thinking as we exit 2016 and look forward to 2017, 2018, 2019, as you probably do a little bit more aggressive tax planning?

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

We have been focused on the operating rate, Alex. And we did see some benefits, as I talked in my comment. We did also get some benefits from discrete items that we went back and actually got some deductions from prior periods and that got all reflected here, so it magnified the effect on the effective tax rate. But we are guiding down, it's safe to say generally, when we give you a range, we like to look at the midpoint. And that's what we expect our rate to be next year plus or minus discrete items if they come through. We have more certainty in our planning this year than we did last year. For example, the R&D credit is now permanent, so that helps us a lot. So, I feel that's a pretty sustainable rate throughout the year. There are things that can change it, Alex, the mix of international profits and things like that. But right now based on what we're seeing, we will look at 33% to 34% and if things change, we'll let you know appropriately, but we feel comfortable at this point right now.

Alex Kramm - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

And no comments on ongoing work to reduce it even further beyond 2016?

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

We'll always – we're going to continue to focus. We see more upside out there, but as some of the work that we need to is more extensive and requires a lot more work with our advisors, but we continue to press on. It's not something we're going to take our eye off the ball. And if we have positive surprises – positive developments not surprises, we'll update you accordingly.

Alex Kramm - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. Fair enough. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Warmington with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Good morning, everyone. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

I wanted to ask about the Index business, specifically. It looked like the sales had been strong on a year-over-year basis, but also the cancellations were up. You had mentioned this in your comments. I just wanted to see if we could get a little bit more color there. Fortunately, it was offset by some improvement in Analytics, but I thought we should start out with Index. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, Bill, there is – with respect to cancels, right, there is absolutely nothing to read into these numbers in the fourth quarter. There are times in which you pick up a little, cancel here and there and it exacerbates the numbers. So, we are not concerned about it. We don't think this is a trend. We think these are just sort of quarter-to-quarter variations and the like. And we continue to be positive about the continued growth of the subscription business on, what we call, the market data, the market capitalization indexes and are very focused on the incremental growth of the franchise into new areas such as the factor indexes, the ESG indexes, the thematic indexes, the custom indexes. We're also very focused on the expansion of the futures and options franchise linked to MSCI indexes that we did well. We think we're going to continue to do well given the market volatility that is happening and the like. So, the franchise is – continues to be very strong, and I would not read too much into those numbers.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Well, you really touched on my second question, which was going to be about the futures and options opportunity for you. I know that, with some other indexes, some of your competitors, they have a higher percentage of revenue coming in from these types of products. And the challenge, it seemed to be, at least initially, that it was a more complex product, meaning that you were going across multiple currencies. And so maybe you could talk a little bit about how you solved that problem and what you think the opportunity is. How big is it now in terms of what you are doing, and how fast is it growing? Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. So the – most listed futures and options in equity indexes around the world are national, so meaning single-country, single-currency or multi-country, but single-currency like in continental Europe with the EURO STOXX 50. So, I think – so that has been the nature of the listed futures and options industry. And you require typically a very healthy amount of listed futures and options to develop a large structure of product, structure-derivative product business because related products are the ones that are used to hedge the positions in the structured products. So, that's a business that many – some of our competitors who are more – who have developed more into national Index businesses have benefited from. We have been hard at work on developing with our partners, the industry of multi-country, multi-currency futures. We started with the New York Stock Exchange life exchange that was acquired by ICE, so we're working pretty close with ICE now in the U.S. to develop that. The volumes on the MSCI emerging market Index futures and the MCSCI EAFE futures trading in New York have been increasing rapidly and steadily. So, we like that. We're trying to see if we can do the same in Europe and Asia as well. So, this is an area of good growth in double digits, but it is from a very small base at the moment. And it's not going to be a huge growth driver immediately, but it's a steady – it will be a steady build. And as I said in the past, there are always three big legs that you can build on equity index franchise around, there is the active leg, which is what we call subscription. There's the passive leg, which is institutional passive and ETF, and then there is the hedging or exposure leg, which is futures and options and other forms of structured products. So, we've been very good in the first two, and we're now really attacking with a hard drive, the third leg, to see if we can capitalize on the breakthroughs that have been made in the creation of multi-currency futures.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Okay. Well, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Toni M. Kaplan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Good morning. Analytics margins, the margins in Analytics were extremely strong in this quarter and, I think, above what you had previously been guiding to. It sounds like FX was a contributor. But is there anything else to call out? And, really, if I look at that segment, the first half and second half were so different in terms of the margin profile. So how should we think about 2016 for Analytics margins?

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. I'll try to – that's a good question, Toni. We tried to address that, and we were fully cognizant of the margin came in a little different than we had guided in the third quarter. Two things, on a top line, sales again were very strong in the fourth quarter as you saw both recurring and non-recurring totaling $40 million in aggregate. So, we did have one-time sales came in, in Q4 that helped the Analytics that we weren't anticipating, which is – that's a good thing. Secondly, I did refer to the reversal of an incentive compensation have closed significant for senior executive that left in the fourth quarter after our call. And then we did file an 8-K on that in Q4. Those were two of the principal drivers, there were a few one-times in there. But we knew about most of them. But I would say, those two items really steered the margin the other way. Having said that, I tried to give you the normalization of around 25% as we enter into 2016, for Q1, adjusted for some tax inflationary costs related to compensation. Hopefully that helps a little bit, Toni. Toni M. Kaplan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Yes. It does. Thank you. And you have been doing a number of repurchases, especially in the second half of last year. How should we think about pacing of buybacks in 2016? And if you could just remind us, how should we think about repurchases as a percentage of free cash flow, just on a normal sort of policy basis? Thanks. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I think the way to think about it, Toni, one is, we are not in the mood or desire to restore excess capital in the company or in the balance sheet, right? So, to begin with. Secondly, we want to be opportunistic with our repurchases, which – at higher share prices we do less but we still do – we'll do some and at lower share prices, we do more, the volume. And therefore, every quarter is going to be different, depending on where our share price is trading, and what the volumes are because, obviously, we want to do this in a way that we're not impacting the natural demand-supply and price discovery in the stock. So that's kind of the balancing act that we have, but we've done well so far, right? We've done really well in the last six, nine months or so with this strategy. And we definitely intend to continue to do that if we can. Toni M. Kaplan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Shutler with William Blair. Your line is open. Chris C. Shutler - William Blair & Co. LLC: Hey, guys. Good morning. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Hi, Chris. Chris C. Shutler - William Blair & Co. LLC: On the EBITDA expense guidance for 2016, what exchange rates have you used for the pound and euro and what would cause you guys to be at the low end versus the high end?

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

We used the – same as last year, we use the spot rates of December 31 to convert all of our currencies. So, we're really starting out fresh. That was the basis for $610 million to $625 million. So, that's something you can get pretty easily. I don't have it here in front of me, but we've got those for you. And regarding the – I think as Henry talked about, we remain vigorously addressing our cost base, making sure we're as efficient as we can to provide ourselves opportunities that are out there. And as with all the years, Chris, we're going to one times, but we still want to stay whole and true to our 5% to 7% and 4% is guiding to our midpoint. That gives us room if need be, but we're going keep our eye on the markets along with a question that Alex dropped in the first part of his call here. So, again, right now, $610 million to $625 million as we move through the year, similar to last year, we'll definitely steer you on a tighter path. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: The other thing is, if you sit back and look at the totality of the company, right, in terms of cash flows and balance sheet and all of that, if you put aside for a minute the ABF, which I'll comment on in a second, but if you put aside the ABF, our revenues are largely in the hard currencies. Obviously, most of them are in dollars, in euros, in pounds, and in yens, right? And our cost is also in those hard currencies, but is also a meaningful amount of the cost is in the soft currencies of various emerging markets. So, on a net-net basis, a stronger dollar ends up being mildly positive for us. And particularly the way it has evolved, which has become strong relative to the hard currencies, but not as strong as comparing to the appreciation relative to the weaker currencies, the soft currencies. So...

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. And maybe just on that point, just to give you something concrete, in terms of subscription revenues, our billable in dollars for our revenues is 83% in dollars, so that leaves 17% for non-dollars. And those exposures are euro, yen and sterling on an absolute basis. On expenses, our billable currency other than the U.S. dollar has increased slightly to 44%. We've talked about that being 40% in the past. And our larger exposures are sterling, but then again that gets offset by the revenue. So, really our net exposure on EBITDA and revenues for subscription revenues would be – mainly euro would be our biggest one out there. Having said that, we don't factor in the AUM, although two-thirds of those are denominated in other currencies than the U.S. dollar. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: And that's kind of clearly the issue that's always hard, right, because a lot of the AUM is in non-dollar in the passive products. And so when the dollar strengthen against that, you see an immediate weakening of those AUM levels, but typically more assets flow into those because of the exchange rate and, over time, they kind of come back up to prior levels. So, that's always harder to do that. But net-net, we're not worried at all about the strength of the dollar because it's a mild positive and we're not worried of a reversal of the strength of the dollar because it's not a big impact on us. We're largely hedged, not totally, but we're largely hedged. Chris C. Shutler - William Blair & Co. LLC: All right. Great. Then can I just ask a question on Analytics. Maybe – you've talked a lot about this in the past, but can you just flesh out some…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Joseph Foresi with Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open.

Joseph Foresi - Cantor Fitzgerald Securities

Analyst · Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning. I was wondering if you could tell us or maybe give us some detail around how the increase in custom indexes is impacting the business. Is there a different go-to-market for it and how you sort of see that playing out? Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: This is an area of double-digit growth for us and has always been from a couple of decades and what it is, is that we have the off-the-shelf market capitalization indexes or factor indexes or the other ones and therefore, people come to us and say we want to be benchmarked with something that is worth targeting to what our investment objectives are. Can you help us with that? And the easy part, which is we repackage the countries in a different way or repackage industries in a different way or exclude a number of industries that they're concerned about or, in the case of ESG, exclude a different number of companies that are not compliant to what they believe to be a secret area. So, this is an area that we have created an industrial strength organization from the understanding of the client needs to looking at the methodology, to the production environment, which is pretty critical because you cannot have thousands of these indexes and all in a manual way. So, we are very well set to continue to grow here. And we see this as a way of the future in which clients will want to rifle-shoot their investment goals and have a benchmark that is tailoring to them.

Joseph Foresi - Cantor Fitzgerald Securities

Analyst · Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open.

Okay. And maybe you could just talk about if you've seen any changes at all in the competitive environment either on custom indexes or in other areas. And any updates you could provide on sort of sales force additions would be great as well. Thanks. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Not a lot competitive changes from last year at all. If anything, some of the types of acquisitions and mergers that have taken place have created openings for us to go out and insert ourselves, and that's been beneficial to our business. And now, the factor investing area is an area that we're leading, but is – we're very subject to clearly more competition at this moment. Quite a lot of the competition is not coming from traditional sources but more from asset managers that have fund teams that build these factor models. For example – and therefore, they don't make them available to everyone like we do, but they go to the client and offer the product sometimes in competition with our indexes. But we believe that given the huge expertise that we have on equity risk models, the Barra risk models, and the know-how that we have, Barra practically invented equity risk models and factor investing starting from the mid-1970s, so we have huge competitive advantage in having leadership in this area.

Joseph Foresi - Cantor Fitzgerald Securities

Analyst · Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Doug Doucette with KBW. Your line is open. Douglas Doucette - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Good morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. Just one question, wondering if you could give us any sense of the timeline on reaching the 15% to 20% margin target for the Other segment in light of your commentary about the real estate segment reaching breakeven this year. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, these are longer-term targets, right, but we clearly are intent on getting there sooner than later, right? We feel pretty good about the ESG product line. If anything, that's a product line that we can accelerate dramatically, higher profits, but it's a huge growth area, huge. It's at a $40 million-plus run rate and quite a lot of demand. So, we are balancing out the increasing of profit relative to investments that we want to make, so that we are – we continue to be the leader there. And, as we said, in real estate, we hope to breakeven next year, or maybe single-digit margins, and then we want to accelerate from there. But we can't tell you yet what the trajectory is, but we are fully intent on achieving those margins over a few years. Douglas Doucette - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: All right. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Hugh Miller with Macquarie. Your line is open. Hugh M. Miller - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: ...for squeezing me in as well. Just had one question on the Index retention. I know you guys had mentioned that some closures and strategy changes had weighed on 4Q and that it was kind of more of an anomaly. How comfortable are you guys with kind of the historical retention of 95%-ish as we think about 2016? Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: For the full year, we're comfortable. We don't – there is no evidence of any meaningful change to that at this point. I know there would always be variations from quarter-to-quarter. So, there is no – we were not thinking about it any differently.

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

And Q4 is always one – you got to put that in context. It tends to be seasonally, where a lot of clients will renew their contracts. We see it drop a little bit in Q4. Hugh M. Miller - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Understood. Thank you. And then the other was just I appreciate the insight on the Analytics margins and stuff like that and you guys mentioning the potential to raise prices and not getting a lot of pushback from clients on that. Can you just help us – give us a sense of what type of level of price increases are you guys striving for, for 2016?

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Well, we've pushed in 2015, in our repriceable portfolio on Index, we did 5% to 7%. And we look at that as the opportunity for 2016. Again, on Analytics, the emphasis there is it was really just starting in late 2015 and we were starting to push the price increases on that portfolio. We expect that to be a good piece of the growth that we're going to see in 2016 over 2015. And we'll update you more each quarter as we get into the year and we start realizing those price increases. Hugh M. Miller - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. That's helpful. I mean – but do you still also feel confident about your ability to maybe take share and grow the client base as well or is it more a function of just kind of adding value to the current client base and being able to charge more for that? Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: All of the above.

Robert Qutub - Chief Financial Officer

Management

All of the above. Yeah. Hugh M. Miller - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we have a question from Keith Housum with Northcoast Research. Your line is open.

Keith M. Housum - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Thanks, gentlemen. One question for you in terms of the Indexes and the asset-based fees. The pressure that ETFs are getting just from competitive stance in terms of lower – having to lower their fees, how tied is their reduction fees to what you guys recognize for under your fees for assets under management? Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. So, the way a lot of our fees are structured is that our fee is a percentage of the management fee but (70:17) and it has a cap. So, if we're operating at the high end of that range and the manager lowers their fee, we come down with that lowering of the fee. But if we're at the lower end of the cap, which is where the largest of our funds are, then any lowering of the fee hits the floor.

Keith M. Housum - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I am showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back to Steve Davidson for any closing remarks.

Stephen C. Davidson - Head of Investor Relations

Management

Thanks for your time this morning and we look forward to speaking with you all soon. Henry A. Fernandez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.