Robert Katz
Analyst · JMP Securities.
Well, I think, Will, I guess what I'd say is, we have to make an assessment, right, on 2 different factors or 3 maybe. One is, how many -- what percentage of our pass sales are truly incremental; what percent have been pulled in from the fall; and then 3, even if we do very well in the spring, just because the base is so much larger in the fall, comping the exact same percentage increase in the fall means the numbers have to be much bigger. And I think what our experience tells us, and I think we've also guided the other way, as you probably remember a few years back when pass sales were down in the spring and we said, "Wait a minute, hey, guess what, this is a timing issue," and I think we were on target about that. So what I'd say here as I've said in earlier answers, a portion of this is absolutely people being pulled forward from the fall. A portion of this is we don't think we're going to comp the same percentage on a larger base in the fall. But the good news, though, is that we've got, I'd say the kind of out-of-state segment, but certainly international and Tahoe, which we think are up truly as we mentioned earlier. Incremental sales, we're clearly seeing real growth is that the numbers are too big for us to attribute that just to pulling people forward. That's not what -- that's not the dynamic that we attribute that to. So I -- when we go into the fall, the good news for us is, when we see people buy earlier, we think that's a great indicator, right, for next year regardless. Because what it means is that there's momentum for booking vacation, for thinking about -- for booking their vacation, for thinking about skiing. And so I guess we look at all of these numbers as nothing but an unmitigated positive, big positive, right? A bit 6 months out more than 9 months out from peak season. But we don't want people to think that we're going to report a 17% increase in units in December. And then we guide people down to realize that this is great news, but remember that the overall program is 2/3 bigger than the spring. And as everything flushes through, good news, but let's not just take this number and apply it to the whole program.