D.J. Monagle
Analyst · C.L. King. Please go ahead.
So, David, I’m processing and figuring out the best way to answer it. And let me try to distill it down. If I look at the printing and writing grades, we still see some of the secular decline, but what we're seeing in that short term, and it probably continues in that three-year look, is that we saw a spike in North America, but that recently we just saw this destocking that went on. But in North America, some capacity has just recently come out of the market. And in North America, that industry goes back to probably 85% plus operating rates, which seems pretty sustainable for the next three plus years or so. Hard to tell for sure, but that's what it looks like. Europe, we see that being - that has been on a decline, but it has not been in the grades in which we participate. So, Europe seems to be going through a rationalization period that is augmented or offset by continued growth in Asia, particularly China, where, although their growth has slowed down over recent years, it's still a growing region, India as well. So, on balance in that, look, printing and writing grades still come down a little bit, but not a lot. It seems to be a gradual decline. On packaging, we've seen a shift that's gone on as people have converted some of that old capacity into making some packaging. So, the packaging overall consumption, it kind of depends on the type of packaging. The way we look at it is, there's these high-end boxes that hold the iPhone or crate up a box of golf balls. That seems to be pretty steady or growing at a slight rate. The recent shift has been brown boxes have come down slightly since the pandemic era, and there's people taking a pause and seeing how that goes. But long term, that'll probably grow at a GDP plus sort of rate. And then what's been supplementing that or growing at a greater rate than that is this kind of in-between box. It's a white top box. That's where we've had recent applications, both in Europe and North America, where that Amazon box that you're getting is no longer just a brown box. It’s well printed. So, that'll be growing as well. So, it’s overall, packaging still growing. The overall printing and writing probably flat, but that flat is deterioration, especially in Europe, growth in Asia. Does that balance out the thought?