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MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 30, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to MasTec's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call, initially broadcast on October 30, 2020. Let me remind participants that today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Marc Lewis, MasTec's Vice President of Investor Relations. Marc?

Marc Lewis

Management

Thanks Kevin. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to MasTec's third quarter call. The following statements made pursuant to the safe harbor for forward-looking statements described in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In these communications, we may make certain statements that are forward-looking, such as statements regarding MasTec future results, plans and anticipated trends in the industries where we operate. These forward-looking statements are the company's expectations on the day of initial broadcast of this conference call, and the company does not undertake to update these expectations based on subsequent events or knowledge. Various risks, uncertainties and assumptions are detailed in our press releases and filings with the SEC. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties prove incorrect or should be this information would be changing the results may differ significantly from results expressed or implied in these communications. In today's remarks by management, we will be discussing adjusted financial metrics as discussed and reconciled in yesterday's press release and supporting schedules. In addition, we may use certain non-GAAP financial measures in this conference call. A reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures not reconciled in these comments to the most comparable GAAP financial measure can be found in our earnings release or our 10-Q located in investors section of our website located at mastec.com. With us today, we have Jose Mas, our Chief Executive Officer; and George Pita, our Executive VP and Chief Financial Officer. The format of the call will be opening remarks announces by Jose, followed by a financial review from George. These discussions will be followed by a Q&A period, and we expect the call to last about 60 minutes. We had another great quarter and a lot of things to talk about today, so I'll now turn it over to Jose. Jose?

Jose Mas

Management

Thanks, Marc. Good morning, and welcome to the MasTec's 2020 third quarter call. I'd like to thank you for joining us today. And I hope and pray that you and your loved ones are healthy and safe. MasTec continues to excel during these challenging and unprecedented times as we manage through the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time, the safety of our team members has been our top priority. I have to say, I'm so proud of the men and women of MasTec. Their sacrifices, resilience, creativity, and commitment have been inspiring. Millions of families throughout the United States rely on the power, communications, entertainment, and other services we help our customers provide. Our team has delivered. And I'd like to thank the men and women of MasTec for their sacrifices and hard work. First some third quarter highlights. Revenue for the quarter was $1.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA was 265 million, adjusted earnings per share was a $1.83, year-to-date, cash flow from operations is $712 million, and backlog at quarter end was 7.7 billion. In summary, we had another excellent quarter and are on track for another great year. I believe the third quarter demonstrated the strength of MasTec's business diversification. To me, the highlight of the quarter was the growth of our non oil and gas segments. Revenue for these segments grew at 19%. And EBITDA for these segments grew at 83% on a year-over-year basis. We expect continued growth of these segments in both revenue and earnings driven by a number of growth catalysts in both communication and clean energy. Catalysts in communication include the continued rollout of 5G and the ever-increasing fiber opportunities tied to it the growing focus on increasing consumer broadband speed by both the telecom and cable TV carriers and the launch and growth of…

George Pita

Management

Thanks, Jose and good morning everyone. Today I'll cover third quarter results, our current guidance expectation for the balance of 2020 including the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as our strong cash flow performance, capital structure and liquidity. As Marc indicated at the beginning of the call, our discussion of financial results and guidance will include non-GAAP adjusted earnings and adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliation and details of non-GAAP measures can be found on our press release, on our website, or on our SEC filings. In summary, our third quarter earnings results were better than expected with adjusted EBITDA beating our guidance expectation by $11 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share, exceeding our guidance expectation by $0.16. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $265 million represents a record level for MasTec and was achieved despite lower than expected oil and gas segment performance, which was impacted by delays in large project startups that have now initiated in the fourth quarter. As Jose noted, it is important to note that year-over-year strength in our non oil and gas segments, namely the communications, clean energy and infrastructure and electrical transmission segments, which on a combined basis, despite COVID-19 impacts showed third quarter year-over-year revenue growth of 19% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 83%. This performance highlights the strength, diversity and growth potential of MasTec. Third quarter 2020 results also continued our strong cash flow performance, generating $216 million in cash flow from operations and reducing sequential net debt levels by approximately $129 million. On a year-to-date basis, 2020 cash flow from operations of $712 million represented another record performance level for MasTec and we have reduced net debt levels by almost $300 million since year end 2019 despite approximately $150 million in share repurchases and other strategic investments. As indicated in…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Steven Fisher of UBS.

Steven Fisher

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Just wanted to start off asking some questions about the clean energy business, one of you can just talk a little bit about kind of the projects you're working on today and how you see that changing into 2021 and '22 to get to the targets that you have there. And I assume that would cover what size of projects you're bidding on and really kind of what the competitive landscape looks like for these new types of projects that that you need to book in order to achieve your targets, so just kind of wondering how should investors think about the size of the opportunities, the competitive landscape and how confident we can be that you'll get to that target over the next couple of years?

Jose Mas

Management

Yeah, Steve, so I think the most important part, right is as you think about where we brought the business from. So just a few short years ago, we were a $300 million business and this year, we should exceed $1.05 billion. And we're talking about approximating 2 billion next year and eventually growing that business to 3 plus. So I think that the comfort should come in what we've been able to deliver over the last couple of years, right. So I think we've proven our ability to grow the business. Now the question becomes what is the market look like? And as the market afforded us the opportunity to continue to grow with the growth rates that we've enjoyed and seen over the last few years, I think that's the most important piece, right. When you look at the market, I don't think there's any question that there's a significant increase in the level of activity. I mean, quite frankly, the number of opportunities that we're looking at and as we look at our bid schedules and the potential projects that are out there, I mean, it's never even been close, right. It's worse any number we've ever seen in the past. So just with us winning our fair share of that we feel relatively comfortable that we can get to those levels in short order. Historically, as you may remember, we were wind business, right. We started this business as being a large wind contractor. Today, we're a much more diversified entity. Our wind business is still a really good business and a business that's going to continue to grow, especially with the added focus that we're seeing in wind. But the reality is the other portions of the business are growing much faster, right. We've got a solar business that we started about a year ago, maybe just slightly over a year ago, that business will probably exceed the size of our wind business in the coming years. It's going to have a fantastic year in 2021 and that's a big growth driver for us for '21 versus '20. We've significantly grown our biomass capabilities, our back bone supplying capabilities, which we think is going to open a whole slew of new technologies on the clean energy side for us. We've worked on battery storage projects. We've worked on the associated transmission lines and substations that come with them. So it's just a very robust market. I think you see every one of the large utilities talking about their focus on clean energy and their move to clean energy. And as that continues to happen, we're going to be a big beneficiary of that.

Steven Fisher

Analyst

That's very helpful, and clearly, as you lay out, there are some really robust opportunities for your businesses, particularly outside of oil and gas, but it still seems like the backlog in these segments are still drifting a bit lower. So why do you think that is? And when could we see that inflect more positively? Is there a COVID impacts here, is it kind of permitting this economic confidence, what's holding it back and when can we see this release start to ramp up in the backlog?

Jose Mas

Management

Look, we've always said that backlog isn't going to be a consistent measure of where our business is going, right. Backlog has a lot of timing-based issues with it. The third quarter is a strong quarter for us, especially outside of our oil and gas business. It was a high watermark revenue quarter for us across a number of businesses, which makes it difficult to add backlog at those levels. Historically, if you look at our backlogs, the third quarter isn't generally the peak of our backlog levels, because it's the quarter where we work the most backlog off, so for us it's timing, right. We have the benefit of seeing that you as an investor don't is where we sit on whether it's verbal awards, negotiated projects, what we're seeing from trends, what we're seeing that we're bidding on, and I can tell you that when you think about clean energy, we've never had; A, we've got a bunch of projects that I think we'll be able to announce in the coming quarters that will take us to record backlog levels. I think we said that in our prepared remarks. We expect to have record backlog levels in clean energy and we hope it happens by year end. But we also understand that something slipping it might be Q1, but in the coming quarters, we expect to have record backlog levels. When you see what's happening in communications. And I know there's some frustration because it's been talked about for a long time, but there's no question that that's coming, right. The best of that market is yet to come. And I think we're incredibly well positioned. We know what's happening. We're talking to customers. We know exactly what we expect and what's coming. So I think it's a matter of time before you see it in our numbers. Transmission, a good market, we've got some big awards that are pending, where we've got limited notice to proceed and as soon as those contracts convert into full contracts, you're going to see a pretty big increase in backlog. And quite frankly, as crazy as it sounds, we will probably be up in backlog in our oil and gas business year end, despite what should be a very good quarter. So albeit, the headline may not look as great on backlog, the reality is that as a company, we've never been in a better position than where we are today relative to the opportunities that are in front of us.

Steven Fisher

Analyst

Terrific, thanks very much.

Jose Mas

Management

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz of Citi.

Andrew Kaplowitz

Analyst

Good morning, guys.

Jose Mas

Management

Good morning, Andy.

Andrew Kaplowitz

Analyst

Jose, you just mentioned the frustration in communications and revenue then is somewhat sticky when I made $600 million range for a while. Even its underlying growth has been relatively good. So at what point do you think the drag that you've had, whether it's AT&T permitting, maybe T-Mobile taking longer to ramp up? What's the point you get really high conviction, they can break out of that recent range? Is it really the first half of '21, where you have pretty good conviction that you get sort of unstuck here?

Jose Mas

Management

Look, my conviction is already high, right. So I think it's - I hope that comes clear today, right. I understand the numbers don't necessarily substantiate it from what you're seeing, but my conviction is high. Why is my conviction high? A bunch of reasons, right, first, we're living in a year in 2020 that is not normal, right. We're living through the COVID impacts that have affected all of our customers in different ways. We've got Verizon that is completing its - or getting to the end of its first phase of construction and moving to its second phase, you've got AT&T and both Verizon, that are counting on the spectrum auctions at the end of the year, that are an important part of their wireless growth in the future. You have things that are happening, where I think we're seeing some slight slowdowns as it relates to some customers in the second half of the year, right. With others that are - from our business are doing a lot better, right. So we've got a mixed bag within our communications business. If you look at our Comcast revenues, our Comcast revenues were up 159% year-over-year in the third quarter, they're up 111%, full year. You talked about T-Mobile, although it doesn't make our top 10 customer, a very important customer for us and one, quite frankly, that we're actually pretty happy with what we've been able to accomplish. To put it in perspective, T-Mobile has 64 markets. They break out our work in 64 markets. What makes T-Mobile different is we have to compete at a market-by-market level. They're not national contracts or not like some of our other customers. But we've made it a priority to really compete and fight and win T-Mobile work. When the year…

Andrew Kaplowitz

Analyst

And very helpful, Jose, so maybe kind of a similar question in oil and gas, I think we all kind of would like your perspective here, obviously, you're going to have more large project work in '21 pushed out from '20. If I look at your segment, over the last few quarters, its averaged 400 million is that like a bid of sort of small to mid-size type work, and then you sort of add on large project. And when you talk to your customers are, we sort of bouncing along the bottom, if you may, for a few quarters, and then we can improve as we go out into '21 and '22. Any updated perspective would be helpful.

Jose Mas

Management

Sure. So I do think that the levels in Q3 is a sustainable level for us considering the backdrop that exists in oil and gas today. This is challenging for us and it's challenging for me personally, because I believe in our oil and gas business, I believe in long-term, I believe that it's going to be - that it's going to recover, and be a significant contributor to MasTec for a long period of time. With that said I understand where the market is, right. I understand that I'm not going to convince the market, we'll see it's going to play out, one way or the other it's going to play out. So what are we trying to do as a business? We're trying to tell the market look, let's assume that oil and gas is going to be in a down market, let's assume that it's going to continue to be roughly in the space that it is today, we all know that at some point, demand is going to recover, and there's going to be some improvement in the business. But let's just assume that it stays in a weakened price point - better than it is today, but in a weakened price point. We think levels are sustainable. And what we're trying to do, what we've really been working on this call, and I think over the course of the last few months, is to try to give people a view of what MasTec would look like in a continued depressed oil and gas market, right. And I think we've laid that out. If I'm right, and the oil and gas market turns out to be better than considered option value, right? I think we're still a great brand in that industry. I think we're well…

Andrew Kaplowitz

Analyst

Very helpful, Jose, thank you.

Jose Mas

Management

Thank you, Andy.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today comes from Nicole Dilts, pardon me, Noelle Dilts of Stifel.

Noelle Dilts

Analyst

Hi, gentlemen, good morning.

Jose Mas

Management

Hi, Noelle.

Noelle Dilts

Analyst

So my first question is a little bit specific, but just given the TC energy announcement around Keystone XL and congrats on that award. Just curious how you're kind of thinking about the probability of that job moving forward, given again, more regulatory challenges and if we should expect to see that go into backlog next quarter?

Jose Mas

Management

So look, I think when we talk about oil and gas for 2021, we're going to be up next year, right. Just based on the projects in our current backlog of which that project is not in current backlog, our business will be up. I mean, I find it very difficult to see how our business wouldn't increase on a year-over-year basis. I think there's time to tell as to whether Keystone moves forward or not, we're obviously excited about our participation in the project. I am more bullish than some routed to the project, I think they've done a lot to get to the point where they're going to build it, we don't know for sure. The reality is that if everything that we've got pending and coming, if it all happens in 2021, the reality is, we'd be more like a $3 billion oil and gas business in '21. And we're never going to guide to that, we're never going to think about that. We think there's going to be - we're assuming that a bunch of work is going to slip into 2022. But with any individual project, you could almost take any individual project out of what we're thinking for '21 and we're still going to grow based on 2020 levels.

Noelle Dilts

Analyst

Okay, great. So that and others might represent some upside. And then secondly just given the strength of your cash flow generation, and really where your balance sheet stands today, I know you spoke a bit about potential share repurchase on the call. But could you also give us a little bit more of an update, a little bit more depth on how you're thinking about M&A targets in the market if the current environment is yielding some opportunities to pick up peers who may be struggling a little bit more. Just kind of curious and also which markets you think are most interesting as you look forward?

Jose Mas

Management

Look, I think there's a reason you haven't seen us do share buybacks in the last months. And a lot of it has to do with how we view the business going forward, and the potential opportunities that we see out in the marketplace, I can tell you that we are extremely very active in exploring and analyzing M&A partners, probably as active as we've been in the last 10 years. I can't remember a time where we've been in more discussions and in more negotiations and we are today. So for those reasons, I think we've tried to take our time and deciding what we do with the liquidity that we're sitting on. So I do think you can expect us to be more acquisitive in the coming quarters than you've probably seen us bee in a while. We think there's a lot of really interesting and good targets. We've been talking about it a couple of quarters. Obviously, these deals take time, and we want to make sure we make good decisions around them. We continue to evaluate share repurchases, because, again we've talked about it, we think our valuation and where we're trading at is an extremely attractive entry point to MasTec. But there are really good opportunities for us to continue to grow our business, most of our growth has been organic over the course of the last few years. We do think there's going to - we're going to be able to sprinkle in some M&A activity that's going to help us get to these targets faster. I would say that we're very active in all of the segments, probably with the exception of oil and gas. And we see really good opportunities to further our portfolio, to grow our geographic footprint. And to add and grow the different level of services we can offer to our customers within each of those segments.

Noelle Dilts

Analyst

Thank you.

Jose Mas

Management

Thanks Noelle.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Rygiel of B. Riley.

Alex Rygiel

Analyst

Thank you, nice quarter gentlemen.

Jose Mas

Management

Thank you, Alex. Good morning.

Alex Rygiel

Analyst

Good morning. Jose, I think everybody hears you when you say that you expect sort of growth in 2021. I suspect everybody's assuming that's on the top line. And therefore I think the market is somewhat struggling with how to think about EBITDA in 2021 versus 2020. Can you give us a few areas to focus on to think about what the drivers are to EBITDA growth in 2021 versus maybe a modest EBITDA contraction in 2021?

Jose Mas

Management

Look, so I would say that we don't expect EBITDA to contract in '21. We expect EBITDA growth in '21 versus '20. But there's gives and puts and takes from that right. So I do think oil and gas EBITDA will come down on a full year basis in '21 relative to where it was in '20. We've talked at length about some of the cost plus nature of some of the larger projects and how that's a little bit diluted to margin. So as we think about the business, and we've said this for a long time, we think that w high teens range is the right range to think about our oil and gas business. On a longer-term nature, I think that's achievable for us in '21. I think our communications margins have been really strong, right the last couple quarters. I think we've talked about hitting double digits for the full year in '20. First quarter was a little bit down the further quarters have improved a lot. I think we'll see slight improvement in '21. But we do expect to have to start ramping up back for growth in '21. So I don't know that there's much margin expansion in '21, relative to what we saw in '20. I think we'll see further margin expansion in both our transmission and clean energy businesses on a full year basis in '21, relative to where we are today. And we obviously have a lot of growth coming from those. So I think all that adds up. So we will see from a total company perspective, I would expect our EBITDA margins to decline in '21 versus where they are in '20 still be strong double digits. We're not giving guidance today. But I would expect it to be slightly below where they are in '20 with some growth from '21 to '20. And again, we're not ready to give guidance, but I think that's a pretty darn specific view of what our expectations are as of today.

Alex Rygiel

Analyst

It sounds like you've been shopping around for a number of acquisitions. The process has taken some time here. What do you think some of those hurdles are? Are sellers unwilling to sell at low price points? Is there a lot of competition for acquisitions? Sort of what's the holdup?

Jose Mas

Management

Look, couple of things. I think we have a track record of being very successful in the acquisitions that we've made. I think the reason that we have is because we take our time upfront, right. We understand that to make sense for us, we have to bring something to the table, right. We have to have a plan on how we take that company from where it currently is, to where it can get to and I think that the planning process on the front end is what ultimately makes acquisition successful or not. So for that, I think we've always taken longer than probably others have. It is a competitive market, there's a lot of money out there, there are some companies that are obviously shopping for the highest multiple, and those are companies that for lots of reasons we're not going to be engaged in and we're not going to see those transaction. It's tough for us trading at 5.7 times I think there's very few companies that are willing to sell at those kind of multiples, although there's some, right. And I think we have to sell our vision and how we think we can help operators grow their business and make the potential of the business that they see in front of them. That's what's been successful for us in the past. I think we're getting close, I think, again we're - I don't think it's a function of doing anything wrong or taking too long. I think this is just a customary time that we would take to make sure that the acquisitions that we make are going to work for us long term.

Alex Rygiel

Analyst

Very helpful. Thank you.

Jose Mas

Management

Thanks, Alex.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook of Credit Suisse.

Jamie Cook

Analyst

Hi, good morning and nice quarter. Most of the questions have been asked, but Jose, obviously, you've done a good job strategically with the company identifying growth platforms early and delivering on the margin profile. I guess the next leg is I think about sort of unlocking shareholder value, obviously, people are placing higher valuations on certain parts of your business relative to others. So sort of in that vein, is there any sort of strategic initiatives going to oil and gas does come back for you to somewhat strategically temper the growth of that business, as people put higher valuations on whether it's communications or transmission or clean energy and infrastructure is another way to sort of improve your multiple? Or is it more a story of let the market figure out that oil and gas is in a cyclical that is your ability to manage in an oil and gas downturn, it's better than the market expects. Thanks.

Jose Mas

Management

So Jamie, what my experience has taught me over the years is, don't overreact to the market. And I think that's important, right. With that said, right, we're trying to manage our business and understand our business over a very long period of time. We understand the concern that exists with oil and gas. We understand the potential pitfalls and challenges that are going to be there potentially long-term, right. So I think for us, the first phase is to get people comfortable with the nature of oil and gas business and the recurring component of it and the diversity and strength within it, right. So if we can convince people over time through execution that we can maintain a certain level of revenue in that business irrespective of what's happening in the cycle, we will get a high valuation for that portion of the business, right. If it's sustainable, people will pay more for it right. And we get that. So there is a good portion of that business that falls into that category. I think in the middle of a pandemic, and in the middle of demand issues relative to that industry, it may not be as clear, but I think over time that will prove out. Again, we've got a good brand, a good name in that business, I do think it's going to come back, I think we will evaluate all of our options over a longer period of time, we're not going to react, we're not going to - we're going to take our time and be measured around our approach. Ultimately, we want to increase shareholder value as much as we can. Up to date, right, it's been an important part of our business, it's been a good margin business, it's been a business that we've been able to grow and react to and meet the cycles and meet the challenges within that business very well. I also think there's going to be dramatically less competition in the next couple years in that business, which is going to create further opportunities for companies like ours. So we're watching it, we understand the concerns that exist with it. We want people to understand the portions of the business that we think should be valued - within that business. There's portions of it that should be valued in different ways. And over time, we're going to continue to articulate that. But look, we've seen the story play too often, right. And we know there's macro issues related here, but we can overreact a cycle. And I think it's early. So, time will tell what we ultimately do that.

Jamie Cook

Analyst

I appreciate the color. Great job, thanks.

Jose Mas

Management

Thanks, Jamie.

Operator

Operator

The next question today comes from Andrew Thalhimer of Thompson Davis.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Good morning Jose, nice quarter.

Jose Mas

Management

Good morning Adam.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

I wanted to talk more about diversifying O&G. So the low end of your long-term oil and gas goal of kind of 1.5 billion, how much of that would be recurring or integrity or maintenance work?

Jose Mas

Management

Well, I think the - so I think there's different parts of recurring, right, I would think that when we think about what specific the base in work versus you've got a significant portion of distribution on that, I think we'd see that as like a 50-50 mix, right. We're 50% is more distribution related projects, integrity related projects, pipe - line replacement projects and then the balance would be base in related work. We're going to see happen in the market is, it's just going to be different basins, right. We may see a slowdown in Texas, but we're going to see significant activity in other basins. So we've got to be ready. And I think our business model is well equipped for it to react to the opportunities as they pop up in different basins. That coupled with more of a distribution type model, I think is what make our oil and gas business very successful over a long period of time. We're sprinkled in some larger project activity over time.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Okay, and then I wanted to ask about Comcast, just because the growth was so strong there. Is that a pandemic response from them? Or is that a larger program? And then, as a part of that, I was hoping you could talk about the cable opportunity in general, if you're talking to other cable companies about potential programs as well.

Jose Mas

Management

Yeah, I think for us, as it relates to MasTec its geographic. So today, we're just working in a lot more markets for them than we historically have. So I think it's been our ability to grow with that customer into new areas. So I don't think it's - it's not pandemic related. I think it's really we were - we signed a Tier 1 contract with them a couple years ago. There's been an initiative where we've been trying to grow our business with them. And I think they viewed us as a good partner to help grow. So based on that, I think, is the growth that you're seeing, and hopefully, we're going to continue, maybe not at these levels, because these levels are really high. But I think we're going to continue to grow our business with them at strong double digits for the foreseeable future.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Thanks Jose.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Wittmann of Baird.

Andrew Wittmann

Analyst

Great, thanks for taking my question, guys. I'll lay out kind of bigger picture questions been asked and answered. But I did want to give you a chance to clarify something that I found a little bit confusing here. You mentioned in the oil and gas segment that to the large projects didn't start but now they're starting they're kind of going right now. You also mentioned that the range here in the fourth quarter contemplates further delays. So what's this - hoping you could reconcile it and sounds like it's moving, but then there's a potential for delay a little bit confusing thought I'll give you a chance to clarify that.

Jose Mas

Management

Yeah, so look, I think when you think about those two projects over their life, at peak activity levels will be somewhere between 5000 to 6000 people on those projects. We're currently at about 1500 people on those projects. We're going to grow that number from year-to-year ends, we may grow to 5000, we may grow to 4000, right, it's going to all be dependent on how quick we grow those resources, how quick we put people on the right away. For the most part there's a lot of work available to us to work, there are still some things missing that we need to have full access to the entirety of those projects. That's not a typical, I think it's really important to note that on one of those projects one of the customers self-imposed a stop work order, it wasn't a stop work order that was mandated, it was self-imposed, as they got - they always had the ability to work in certain areas, but they shut the whole project down to try to get as much progress on the full project as they could, which is probably intelligent, right. So now they've lifted that self-imposed off work order, there's a significant amount of work to do. I think that if we could gear up and man the full jobs we'd probably get to the higher end of that range. I think we're all cognizant of what's been happening in these jobs for a long period of time. So both us and our customers we're trying to take it one step at a time. So that's the difference in our range, right, we're at roughly 30% of the people that we need on the project today. That number is going to grow substantially between now and year end. To what level it ultimately grows to is going to be kind of what dictates where we end up in that revenue range.

Andrew Wittmann

Analyst

That makes sense. Thank you. That's all for me.

Operator

Operator

Our final question today comes from Sean Eastman of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Sean Eastman

Analyst

Hi, gents, thanks for taking my questions.

Jose Mas

Management

Hey, Sean, good morning.

Sean Eastman

Analyst

Good morning. This 10 billion in revenue is super interesting, obviously. I just wanted to get a sense relative to where we are today in 2020 what the margin profile on the business looks like in that 10 million in revenue scenario just given oil and gas is the highest margin segment today. But you also have some pretty ambitious margin expansion targets in the non oil and gas revenue stream. So just trying to put that together in my head and sort of understand the EBITDA power in that scenario.

Jose Mas

Management

Yeah, I don't think it's changed over what we've said. Longer term, if you break it in buckets, right, we set our oil and gas business over a long-term we think we can sustain mid to high teens. Our communications business, we've said we expect to be 13 plus over time, right, we hit 13. a while ago, in the last cycle, we think we can exceed it in this cycle. We've talked about clean energy being at double digits, we've talked about transmission being at double digits. So when you add all that up, and you look at a $10 billion plus company, we're comfortable, we can hit a double-digit EBITDA margin rate at those levels, right. Maybe it's not the 12 though we're at today, but it's somewhere between 10 and that and I think that those numbers MasTec is a very compelling story.

Sean Eastman

Analyst

Yeah, that's super helpful. And second one, for me, just a comment around being uniquely positioned in clean energy. Clearly, that's a big important driver of that growth algorithm. So I just wanted to get a little bit more color, just on the differentiation, their competitive positioning just expanding on that unique position that would be great.

Jose Mas

Management

Look, I think when you look at the customer base that we enjoy in that business, right and the customers that we've grown with over the last three years. So again I think the historical context is important, 300 million to $1.05 billion in just three or four years, growing to 2 billion next year, which means when you talk about the target that we've laid out, it's 50% further growth over a number of years past that, and I think it comes from, quite frankly, the growth of spend within the customer base that we already had. So you look at our top 10 list, and we have a lot of those players in it today. But those customers have significant increases in their clean energy spend, right. Much stronger - very, very strong double-digit rates that they're expecting to grow out over time. If we just grew with the levels of which our customers spend by, we achieved that target. When you add into the fact that we keep increasing the types of work that we do related to clean energy, it furthers our ability to grow that market, in addition to what the spend dollars are, right. So you've got a growing market, with substantial dollars being thrown at it. You've got a contracting community that in reality doesn't exist because these type of projects haven't been built in the past. So we come in with a huge advantage in that we've been an early adopter of these businesses for such a long period of time. We're extremely well known to the customer base that spending the dollars. We're trusted by that customer base. So as they spend dollars we'll benefit. So again if we just grow at the level of which those customers are increasing their spends, we think we achieve that target. As we add further services to what we're going to offer overtime, we exceed that target.

Sean Eastman

Analyst

Got you, really helpful. Thanks again for the time.

Jose Mas

Management

All right, thanks Sean.

Operator

Operator

I'd now like to turn the call back to Mr. Mas for any additional or closing remarks.

Jose Mas

Management

Again this concludes our third quarter 2020 call. Once again, I would like to thank all of those who've supported us during the year and for your participation today. We look forward to providing another update on our year end call. We ask everyone to stay safe. Thank you for joining us today.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentleman that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.