Earnings Labs

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 2, 2023

$41.60

+3.88%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Murphy Oil Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly Whitley, Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead.

Kelly Whitley

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our third quarter earnings call today. Joining us is Roger Jenkins, President and Chief Executive Officer; along with Tom Mireles, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Eric Hambly, Executive Vice President, Operations. Please refer to the informational slides we placed on the Investor Relations section of our website as you follow along with our webcast today. Throughout today's call, production numbers, reserves and financial amounts are adjusted to exclude non-controlling interest in the Gulf of Mexico. Please keep in mind that some of the comments made during this call will be considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. As such, no assurances can be given that these events will occur or that the projections will be attained. A variety of factors exist that may cause actual results to differ. For further discussions of risk factors, please see Murphy's 2022 annual report on Form 10-K on file with the SEC. Murphy takes no duty to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Roger Jenkins.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Thank you, Kelly. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for listening in to our call today. As we turn to slide 3, I'd like to highlight Murphy's strong value proposition. We're a long-term sustainable company with decades of future drilling in our onshore business and significant running room offshore with exploration upside and low carbon intensity. Offshore Murphy holds a competitive advantage with our execution capabilities. Murphy continues to generate strong cash flow. We've been able to more than double our long-standing dividend since 2021 as well as significantly reduced debt. Since the end of 2020, we reduced debt by approximately $1.4 billion and paid more than $330 million of dividends. And within the past quarter, we purchased $75 million of stock, all while maintaining our cash balances and replacing reserves. As we move to slide 4, Murphy has remained focused on our priorities to delever, execute, explore and return. I'm excited to say we advanced Murphy 2.0 of our capital allocation framework in the third quarter through share repurchases and redemption of $249 million of 2025 senior notes, and we remain on track to achieve our $500 million debt reduction goal for the year. Third quarter production of 202,000 barrels equivalent per day, again exceeded the upper end of our guidance range with oil production averaging 103,000 barrels per day. Our 2023 onshore program delivered strong well performance improvements with over 50% of our new wells, achieving all-time highs well performance for their respective areas. I'm pleased to announce today that our Board has sanctioned the Lac Da Vang field development project in Block 15 105, Vitenam. The first oil forecast in 2026. Also during the quarter, as previously announced, Murphy closed the divestiture of certain noncore assets in Canada and a portion of those proceeds redirected to fund…

Tom Mireles

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Thank you, Roger, and good morning, everyone. Slide six. Murphy reported $255 million of net income or $1.63 per diluted share in the third quarter and adjusted net income of $249 million or $1.59 per diluted share. Operations remained strong in the quarter, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $597 million, with minimal accrued CapEx of $162 million, excluding noncontrolling interest. Slide seven. As Roger said earlier, we are excited to have executed on Murphy 2.0 of our capital allocation framework. During the quarter, we redeemed $249 million of debt and repurchased $75 million of shares outstanding, as well as paid our quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share. Overall, we returned 106% of our adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter. To further support the framework, our Board has approved an additional $300 million share repurchase program, and we currently have $525 million remaining under that total authorization. As of September 30, we had total debt of $1.6 billion, so we will continue to allocate adjusted free cash flow funds as prescribed in Murphy 2.0, until we reach Murphy 3.0 with $1 billion of total debt. With that, I'll hand the call over to Eric Hambly, our Executive Vice President of Operations, to discuss our operational update.

Eric Hambly

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. Slide nine. Murphy’s Eagle Ford Shale assets produced 38,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day with 88% liquids in the third quarter, exceeding guidance by 1,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day. As planned, we brought online seven operated wells with four wells in Catarina and 3 wells in Tilden. Three non-operated Tilden wells are planned for the fourth quarter. We've seen great results from our wells this year, particularly as we return to the Tilden area for the first time, since 2019 and applied the revised completion design. Overall, more than 40% of our 2023 new wells are top 30 performers in our portfolio on a 100 to 180-day cumulative oil basis. In particular, the Jambers wells in Tilden that came on line midyear continue to significantly outperform at twice our predrill forecast, while our third quarter wells have produced in line with plan after adjusting for lateral length. Slide 10. In the Tupper Montney, Murphy achieved record quarterly production of 414 million cubic feet per day in the third quarter. There was no new well activity as all 2023 planned wells came online in the first half of the year. We continue to see record production levels, and Murphy was recently highlighted as having two of the top 10 and four of the top 15 natural gas wells in all of Canada in an external report. Internally, eight wells had each achieved an average IP30 of more than 18 million cubic feet per day in 2022 and 2023 and two wells have each achieved a new company record IP30 of more than 21 million cubic feet per day. Additionally, 80% of our 2023 wells are top 15 all-time performers in Murphy history based on their IP30s. Needless to say, we are…

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Thank you, Eric. On Slide 15, we're pleased to announce today that our Board has sanctioned the loan field development Block 15-1/05 in Vietnam, the first oil forecast in 2026. And the field will be developed in phases through 2029 to ensure capital efficiency targeting 100 million barrels of oil equivalent on an estimated gross recoverable resource basis. Overall, we forecast to fill to achieve gross production of 30,000 to 40,000 barrels equivalent per day or 10,000 to 15,000 barrels equivalent net to Murphy. The field is 96% oil-weighted and is currently receiving a premium to Brent oil pricing in that region. On Slide 16, during the quarter, Murphy reviewing commerciality and field development concepts for the PON discovery Block CI-103, which is appraised with multiple wells by a previous operator. As per the agreement on this light, we committed to submitting a viable field development plan by the end of 2025. We move on to Slide 18 and talk about Vietnam. Look forward to additional upside possibilities that near-field exploration provides us with two planned wells in Vietnam next year. The Lac Da Hong exploration well is located in Block 15-1/05, just to the southwest of our Lac Da Trang field development project. The well will target a mean to upward gross resource potential of 65 million to 135 million barrels of oil equivalent. In Block 15-2/17, we're planning to drill the Hai Su Vang exploration well, which will target a mean to upward gross resource potential of 170 million to 430 million barrels equivalent. These two outstanding prospects will be advantaged by the infrastructure provided by the nearby Lac Da Trang field. On Slide 19, we're excited to have commenced initial work during the third quarter on our newest country entry Côte d’Ivoire, by initiating seismic reprocessing across…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Bert Barnes from Truist. Your line is open.

Bert Barnes

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Hey. Good morning, Roger.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Good morning, Bert.

Bert Barnes

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Good to see you and I hope to see at [indiscernible] this year.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Yes.

Bert Barnes

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

It looks like your Gulf of Mexico volumes kind of helped drive part of that 3Q beat and outperformed your guidance. I was just wondering if you could talk about maybe your future exploration prospects that you have in the field maybe after those so well and maybe if you also plan to participate in future lease sales as well?

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Thank you for that question. I really appreciate that about our Gulf business, a real solid part of our company where we've been in this business since 1950. We, of course, will be active in all these sales going forward. We're in the middle of that right now. We are participating primarily next year in two very significant wells in Vietnam now that we have our Vietnam field development plan approved at the LDV field, and these are very large prospects and very nice and lower risk and lower cost wells. While participating in we haven't had our budget finalized, but we're likely -- highly likely to participate in a non-op well with one of our partners in the Gulf, and we're viewing another opportunity on some of our prospects at this time. So we will be active in exploration, active in lease sales, but also we bring to the table a long level of experience working internationally. Murphy is a sought after company to work internationally because we move faster, we -- it's very critical to us where we enter a country, and we bring a competitive advantage and countries want Murphy. And we have two real nice positions now internationally. And so doing really well and well positioned in the Gulf and internationally right now, which is a differentiator for Murphy Oil Corporation. And then thank you for that question.

Bert Barnes

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Yes. That's great. Look forward to the updates. And then just the second part, I just wanted to make sure I understood the Murphy 2.0 payout. What percentage did you target in 3Q? And maybe is that supposed to be every quarter or is that more of an annual target for that 25%. And I’ve follow-up. Thanks.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

I'm going to let have our CFO, Tom walk you through that, gentlemen.

Tom Mireles

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Sure. Thanks, Bert. Yes, we're really excited about actually moving into this phase of our framework and the way we think about it, there is a timing part of this, and there's an execution strategy part of this. And on the timing side, we aren't trying to be precise on a quarter-to-quarter basis. It is more of an annual basis. And that gives us a little bit of flexibility to see if we see any disconnect between our share price and our intrinsic value. So while we generally stay to the framework, you may see some differences there. And it's really -- we focus on this as being an annual target for us.

Tom Mireles

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

But Bert, one more thing we've got to get this debt down and that we're really focusing in on that $500 million goal and where we are today, I feel real good about that. Just to close out this year, but trying to be down the line on the formula how best we can and go on from there.

Bert Barnes

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

That makes perfect sense. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open.

Tom Mireles

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Good morning, Leo. How you doing?

Leo Mariani

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Hey. Good morning. Question on fourth quarter CapEx here. Wanted to see if you could kind of help us out in terms of what the ballpark number should be there in 4Q. And you also talked about this $49 million of acquisition kind of related costs you've had of late. Have those kind of already hit in terms of the balance sheet and the numbers here? Or are those kind of on the come here into 4Q?

Tom Mireles

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

What was that last part of your question again? The first is CapEx is both up just a second. One more time, Leo, I'm sorry.

Leo Mariani

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Yes. You mentioned $49 million of kind of acquisition related costs with some of these new areas where you're entering. Just curious, have those already been incurred? Or are those kind of on the come into the fourth quarter?

Tom Mireles

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

So those have been behind us primarily. We do have some seismic work that's covered in exploration expense in Cote d'Ivoire pretty much that's over here. So you have the CapEx Eric?

Eric Hambly

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

CapEx for the fourth quarter ought to come in under $200 million.

Tom Mireles

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

It maintains our guidance. So we don't have that number right handy with us. It adds up to midpoint of our guidance, and we're in good shape on all that. Our CapEx is lower and we're in really good shape on free cash flow for the fourth quarter.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Yes. Just Leo, just restating, I mean, we're comfortable with the range of CapEx that we've expressed. Obviously, we give a range because we have uncertainty of outcomes primarily in our non-operated business where we have major projects ongoing with fields we don't operate. There's a bit of uncertainty, and that's why we give the CapEx range. But again, we feel really good about our full year CapEx range.

Leo Mariani

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Okay. And can you provide a little bit more color in terms of the activity in the fourth quarter? Because I know that a handful of kind of non-op Eagle Ford wells, but it sounds like that's de minimis spending. There's nothing really onshore. So what kind of comprises the bulk of those expenditures here in 4Q?

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

I have a fair account for you, Leo. Yes. As you pointed out, our onshore business, we're essentially done with our program there. We have a little bit of activity from nonoperated to Eagle Ford. That doesn't drive our CapEx too much. We do have a little bit of facility spending. We're doing a number of projects to get ready for our drilling activity in the Eagle Ford and in the Montney in 2024. That's kind of normal for our business. In offshore, we have quite a bit of activity picking up here in the fourth quarter with two rigs working in the St. Malo non-operated project. and our resumption of drilling OSO, as well as our ongoing development work that we highlighted at the Marmalard number three well.

Leo Mariani

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Okay. That's helpful, guys. And then just -- yeah. No, I appreciate that. And just on the share buyback, obviously, you kicked it off this quarter. It was kind of great to see. Can you maybe just kind of talk a little bit about how you're sort of balancing that with debt reduction as we go forward here?

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

I'll let Tom go through that, but it's our formula, Leo. We're trying to stay to the formula for the rest of the year, 75-25 split. I don't see coming off that with a little more bias towards getting the debt down at year-end is how we're working it.

Leo Mariani

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Yeah, any further colour to that.

Tom Mireles

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

No. I think that -- I think Roger covered it. We have a stated goal of debt reduction this year. And it fits with our priorities for the year of de-levering.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Just to be clear though, Leo, we do anticipate stock repurchase in the fourth quarter.

Leo Mariani

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

Okay. Great.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

…along with the conduction

Leo Mariani

Analyst · Leo Mariani from ROTH MKM. Your line is open

I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open.

Charles Meade

Analyst · Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open

Good morning, Roger, to you in the whole Murphy team there.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open

Oh, good morning Charles, good to hear from you.

Charles Meade

Analyst · Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open

Roger, you touched on Vietnam just briefly earlier in your Q&A. And I want to see if I could get you to talk a little bit more about that. Can you characterize these two exploration prospects for us? And my understanding is that that's going to be your first activity over there. So can you characterize what those prospects are like? I think you said the relatively low risk, but you put some numbers to that? And then also clarify for us that $10,000 to $15,000 BOE a day, net to you guys in -- I think it's already 2026. Does that include any risk exploration success from these two prospects? Or is that just the -- is that just lack of any moment?

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open

No, that is 100% just from the project. Nothing to do with exploration in any number, any forecast, anything with Murphy Oil, I appreciate that question. Vietnam it’s been a sleeping giant for us. We had it held back for a while, also held back by them. It's come to life with this approval of the field development plan, meaning they're ready to put their money in with us here, PetroVietnam. We've had these nice prospects, one of the prospects. These are great fractured sands over carbonate in a very simple geologic setting. One of the wells resembling that which is similar to how the field has laid out and there's a large stratigraphic trap that has some level of structure to it, also nearby as the room or some very good success by one of our partners. In Vietnam that recently drilled a very nice well targeting the same zone, as a very large prospect, can change our world there and make this a very 30,000, 40,000, 50,000 barrel a day business for us long-term, and we can have some exploration success. As to the risk component, it's not low-risk, but its lower risk than big sub-salt $100 million wells in the Gulf of Mexico. And you're talking about wells type cost with lower risk. And also in Vietnam, which most people are not familiar, this is the basin of Vietnam, the multiple platforms, pipelines, infrastructure, FPSOs, FSOs everywhere here. This would look like a segment of South Louisiana 30 years ago, a lot of production here in shallow water. So this is not like we're in a ranked wildcat country here. So that kind of frames what we're doing in Vietnam, Tom, unless you had follow-on to that, Charles.

Charles Meade

Analyst · Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open

No, that's it. That's great detail. Thank you, Roger. And then my second question is kind of about your Murphy 2.0 and really by my modeling, it kind of -- it's obviously an achievement to get to Murphy 2.0. But for me, it looks like a rolling stop in the sense that you guys are going to be in 3.0 territory by the time you report 4Q 2023, if not on an absolute debt basis, certainly on a net debt basis. And you guys you just had a board but you guys must see the same thing. And so I'm curious if you --if you -- to what extent that you guys have discussed that with your Board and if there's -- as you roll forward 2024, you guys are going to be it's possible that you could exit the year with a zero net debt position without giving the effect to any share repurchases. So has that -- can you characterize the conversation that you're having at the Board level? And if there's any -- is it any shifts on what you guys are thinking about for 2024?

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open

No. Obviously, we are discussing us. We have a finance committee for our Board, where we review our modeling in great detail. We're in the middle of our budget and putting things into our new plan, like I said in my comments, overall strategy over time, there would be very similar returns. We can get to the 3.0 of next year, depending on oil price, as you know, we'll go to 50-50. I would say we just keep it down the fairway honor and the framework, get to the Murphy 3.0, 50-50. And we have -- opening up there, we can go to more returns and there could be more opportunities come our way. So we're very, very well positioned. We're also, we're still in the oil business. We're not orderly depleting our assets. We picked up two incredible assets here to do with our offshore competitive advantage on execution. The countries want us there because of that because it's important to us and we move quickly. So we have opportunities in front of us. We're doing extremely well. And with higher oil prices above 85 or so, we can move to this 3.0, as you said very quickly. We want to probably at least execute one quarter of each of the numbers before we change. But we're -- it is -- I haven't heard that comment rolling stop, but it sort of is that way, Charles, I appreciate you coining a great line for me this morning.

Charles Meade

Analyst · Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open

All right. Well, thank you for the detail, Roger.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is open

Well, thank you and good to hear from you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Roger Jenkins for closing remarks.

Roger Jenkins

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open

Thank you, everyone, for attending our call today. We appreciate we had a really good quarter, one of the best in a long time, and we're looking forward to another one, and we'll talk to you in late January. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, presenters. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.