David Rose - Wedbush Securities
Management
Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA)
Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 4, 2015
$27.66
-1.64%
Same-Day
+2.47%
1 Week
+0.56%
1 Month
+4.04%
vs S&P
+1.93%
David Rose - Wedbush Securities
Management
Operator
Operator
Welcome, and thank you all for standing by. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time point. Now I’ll turn the meeting over to your host Ms. Martie Zakas. Ma’am you may begin.
Martie Zakas
Analyst
Thank you. Good morning everyone. Welcome to Mueller Water Products 2015 first quarter conference call. We issued our press release reporting results of operations for the quarter ended December 31, 2014 yesterday afternoon. A copy of it is available on our website muellerwaterproducts.com. Mueller Water Products had 160.6 million shares of common stock outstanding at December 31, 2014. Discussing the first quarter's results this morning are Greg Hyland, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Evan Hart, our CFO. This morning's call is being recorded and webcast live on the Internet. We have also posted slides on our website to help illustrate the quarter's results as well as to address forward-looking statements and our non-GAAP disclosure requirements. At this time, please refer to slide 2. This slide identifies certain non-GAAP financial measures referenced in our press release on our slides and on this call, and discloses the reasons why we believe that these measures provide useful information to investors. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are included in the supplemental information within our press release and on our website. Slide 3 addresses our forward-looking statements made on this call. This slide includes cautionary information identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in forward-looking statements, as well as specific examples of forward-looking statements. Please review slides 2 and 3 in their entirety. During this call all references to a specific year or quarter, unless specified otherwise refer to our fiscal year. Our fiscal year ends on September 30. A replay of this morning's call will be available for 30 days after the call at 1-800-396-1242. The archived webcast and corresponding slides will be available for at least 90 days in the Investor Relations section of our website. In addition, we will furnish a copy of our prepared remarks on Form 8-K later this morning. After the prepared remarks we will open the call to questions. I will now turn the call over to Greg.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Macquarie Securities Group. Sir, your line is open
Thanks Martie. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our results for the 2015 first quarter. I'll begin with a brief overview of the quarter, followed by Evan's detailed financial report. I will then provide additional comments on the quarter's results and developments in our end markets, as well as our outlook for the 2015-second quarter and the full year. Mueller Company’s adjusted operating income increased 10%, primarily attributable to the 11% increase in domestic shipments of valves and hydrants. We believe this growth came from solid demand from the municipal market, as well as from growth in some residential markets. Anvil's net sales grew 5.1% in the first quarter with growth across its end markets. During the quarter we prepaid our long-term debt, entered into a new $500 million senior secured term loan and reduced our debt outstanding, thereby lowering our interest rates and improving our financial flexibility. We continue to believe consolidated operating results for the full year will improve year-over-year due to expected growth in most of our key end markets, lower interest expense and the benefits of operating leverage. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Evan.
Evan Hart
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Thanks Greg and good morning everyone. I'll first review our first quarter consolidated financial results and then discuss segment performance. Net sales for the 2015 first quarter of $261.8 million increased $4.4 million or 1.7% from the 2014 first quarter net sales of $257.4 million due to higher shipment volumes and improved pricing, partially offset by un-favorable Canadian currency translation effects. Gross profit increased 6.3% to $71.3 million for the 2015 first quarter compared to $67.1 million for the 2014 first quarter. This increase was due to a higher margin product mix at Mueller Company and higher sales pricing. Gross margin of 27.2% in the 2015 first quarter increased 110 basis points from 26.1% in the 2014 first quarter. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $55 million in the 2015 first quarter or 21% of net sales. Adjusted operating income for the 2015 first quarter increased 15.6% to $16.3 million as compared with $14.1 million for the 2014 first quarter. This increase was due to a higher margin product mix at Mueller Company and higher sales pricing. Adjusted operating margin also improved 70 basis points to 6.2%. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2015 first quarter increased 6.3% to $30.6 million as compared with $28.8 million for the 2014 first quarter. Trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA was $185.7 million. I will note that this quarter’s reported results include additional expenses primarily associated with our debt re-financing and the closure of a manufacturing facility in Canada. These expenses totaled $39.5 million pre tax or $0.16 per share. In November, we prepaid our long-term debt; entered into a new $500 million senior secured term loan maturing in 2021 and reduced our debt outstanding. These actions improved our financial flexibility and lowered our interest rates. The pre-tax refinancing expenses of $31.3 million included the premium…
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Macquarie Securities Group. Sir, your line is open
Thanks Evan. I'll now elaborate on our 2015 first quarter results and end markets, review our outlook for the second quarter, and provide an update to our general overview for the full year. I'll begin with Mueller Company. There were a number of moving parts at Mueller Company this quarter, both relative to year-over-year comparisons and to the outlook we provided last quarter. Net sales at our base which excludes metering products and leak detection were up 5%. Domestic shipments of valves and hydrants however were up about 11% year-over-year or shipments of brass products were essentially flat. We also saw growth in valves and hydrants shipments in Canada, although we were affected by unfavorable Canadian currency exchange rates. We saw a decline in export shipment of approximately $2.5 million. Sales of our water treatment valves were up slightly year-over-year. Turning to our metering products, year-over-year net sales declined $7.6 million. This business had a difficult comparison in the first quarter, since we shipped the majority of the large Jackson Mississippi project in the first two quarters of 2014. In addition we were unable to ship about $2 million of meters and radios this quarter due to a delay in receiving components from the supplier. When we look at net sales this quarter relative to our expectations, we had a shortfall on two additional areas. Even though Mueller Company’s domestic valves, hydrants and brass products increased about 9% year-over-year, the growth was less than we expected, particularly in our western region. While shipments in this region grew roughly 5%, the growth rate was well below our expectations in what we have recently experienced. We think the slow-down in growth in our western region was primarily due to a decline in the growth rate of residential construction. In addition we had…
Operator
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question coming from the line of Mike Wood of Macquarie Securities Group. Sir, your line is open.
Mike Wood - Macquarie Securities Group
Analyst · Macquarie Securities Group. Sir, your line is open
Hi, thanks so much for all the detail. You actually got to most of my questions in your prepared remarks. First let me ask about the $5 million investment that you were talking about in the Systems business. Is that primarily related to leak detection and can you give us any update in terms of progress on penetrating the U.K. market there?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Macquarie Securities Group. Sir, your line is open
Yes Mike, that is all related to leak detection and we said on our last call that as our – the technology that we introduces last year in the U.S. and the results from the pilots, we got very, very excited certainly about the fixed leak detection that we have been working on and our customers have been excited about it, and so we are continuing to invest to expand our capabilities in that area, to really to go after the U.S. markets, to be able to offer it not only over RS Systems, but over cellular systems. If the utility decides to buy our fixed leak detection only and not couple the decisions with a RF AMI system. We have in the last several weeks actually submitted several quotations in the U.K. We would expect some decisions to be made probably over the next three or four months, but we have had indications that they will start piloting our technology probably within the next several months and as I said the quotations put us in a position to potentially benefit from much larger orders down the road.
Mike Wood - Macquarie Securities Group
Analyst · Macquarie Securities Group. Sir, your line is open
Great and then with the oil and gas headwinds in Anvil, and just general currency headwinds. Do you have any sort of contingency planning or additional restructuring that you may embark on if the headwind increases?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Macquarie Securities Group. Sir, your line is open
That’s a difficult one, because when we look at our SG&A at our oil and gas business, we really have limited sales force there. Our products go 100% through distributors and located in the oil patch, I think our sales people do a good job of not only interacting with our distributors, but the end users and we wouldn’t want to lose that touch point. From a manufacturing standpoint, those products are manufactured at facilities where we manufacture other products, so we don’t have an opportunity to actually close any manufacturing facility. So we’ll have the opportunity probably to reduce some manufacturing overhead, obviously direct costs will be reduced, but relative to what I would call any real restructuring activity I think we are really limited.
Mike Wood - Macquarie Securities Group
Analyst · Macquarie Securities Group. Sir, your line is open
Great, thanks so much.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Macquarie Securities Group. Sir, your line is open
Thank you, Mike.
Operator
Operator
Thank you our next question coming from Kevin Maczka of BB&T Capital Markets. Sir your line is open. Kevin Maczka - BB&T Capital Markets: Thanks, good morning.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets
Good morning, Kevin. Kevin Maczka - BB&T Capital Markets: I guess can we just touch on Mueller Co. So we had a couple of things surprise us here in a quarter with the Mid East refinery delays and the resi business out West. And it looks like from your guide, we are shaping up in terms of total Mueller Co. to be flat in the first half, but Greg if I heard you right you are still thinking may be 7% plus for the year, so really back end loaded strong second half. I’m just wondering, can you say a little bit more about your confidence level, your visibility, your forecasting ability. What gives you the confidence to keep that kind of a target after a flat first half?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets
Yes, Kevin, excellent question. And let me break it down into components. We look at our valves and the hydrants and brass products. For the first half of the year we think that on a year-over-year basis they are going to grow close to 9%. When we look at the second half of the year, then we think that that will grow. We would expect that to grow at really greater amounts driven by our expectations for growth in residential construction and our expectations that we are going to continue to see a solid municipal market. I think our expectations relative to the residential construction market are really driven by, I would say the consensus or the midpoint of housing forecast of a 15% growth year-over-year and as we said in our prepared remarks, in 2014 that grew less than 9% and in the quarter just ended in December, that grew about 6%. So in order to have calendar year 2015 to be at a 15% rate, we’re would have to see a pick up in residential construction and certainly that expected pick up is built into the outlook that we just presented. So I would say that where could we be vulnerable, where could we be vulnerable in our current outlook that if we don’t see residential construction growing at or near that 15%, we could certainly have some vulnerability in our most profitable products at Mueller. If we look at the macro environment relative to residential construction, it certainly looks like those variables support the expectation of the 15% growth rate. Job growth is accelerating. There seems to be higher consumer confidence, household formation has increased dramatically in the recent months and interest rates remain historically low. So that would certainly support an expectation of higher residential growth.…
Greg Hyland
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets
Sure. Kevin Maczka - BB&T Capital Markets: More price increases coming in February, presumably the input cost side is under control and maybe even increasingly favorable. Can you just address that and how does that affect your guidance?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets
Yes, I think relative to input costs, Kevin, I think under control is a good way to put it. I think that when we look at our overhead costs per unit sale, we expect that to come down as our capacity utilization and our manufacturing increases. I think we still have a little bit of the mix – we’re little mixed on the raw material side. I think when we look at brass ingot and when we look at our scrap steel purchases, we think that we will get a tailwind from those components, but we are seeing an increase in components that we source, especially those from China, given where they were 12 months ago, and so when we look at the price increase of Pratt, that price increase is very important to offset the higher component costs that we’re seeing from China that a lot of our components and even machining of our valve bodies is done in China and then come to Pratt for assembly. So all in all, I would say it should tend to be a bit of a tailwind, but we are seeing on the material side there is offset from the lower scrap steel and brass ingot costs relative to source components, especially those coming from China versus what our costs were a year ago. Kevin Maczka - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay great. Thank you.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets
Yes, thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question coming from Brent Thielman of D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open.
Brent Thielman - D.A. Davidson
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
Hi, good morning.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
Good morning Brent.
Brent Thielman - D.A. Davidson
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
Good, good. Greg is there anything specifically your kind of looking at as it relates to infrastructure proposals out of Washington that you think might be significant to the company?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
You know Brent, certainly what’s coming out of Washington, what we’ll have to classify as very positive. I think the question is timing and the overall bureaucracy. Certainly I think that when you look at the state revolving funds, that I think that over $2.3 billion was allocated by the federal government, which is up from where it has been and that seems that a majority of that – I mean well, less than half of that for drinking water, but almost $1.5 billion allocated for clean water. So certainly I think rebuild America. The discussion there to invest $1 trillion over five years; who knows where that will go, but I think even out of Washington as you mentioned there is bipartisan support for the Sustainable Water Infrastructure Investment Act, So I would say that what we are seeing out of Washington is positive. I can’t say that we’ll see much of an impact in 2015 other than I think the increase in state revolving funds. I think that that increase should flow through into the market.
Brent Thielman - D.A. Davidson
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
Sure. Okay, that’s helpful. And then what do you expect your overall kind of sales exposure is going to be in Canada going forward, since it sounds like you kind of scaled back the business?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
Yes, actually we only scaled back – as we said, we had I think last year it was somewhere around $11 million of sales of municipal casting. So we are talking a real commodity product. It has been a legacy business for us and I’d say up until a couple of years ago it was a pretty reasonable business for us, because there was a tendency to buy locally. Over the last couple of years we’ve seen to trend the exports take some of that market, so as we discussed we elected to exit that business. We lost about $2 million at the OI line last year and the sale of those products are completely unrelated to our valve, hydrants and brass products and any of our other products; different buyers, different distribution, so relative to our cutting back our investment in Canada. We don’t believe it really will have any impact on the rest of our business. Now was that your question?
Brent Thielman - D.A. Davidson
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
No, I think that hits it Greg. I guess one more on that. I mean, are you continuing to sort of focus on pushing some of the technology products up into that region as well?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
Yes, we are. We have pilots ongoing with several of the major water systems there, but it’s more on the leak protection side, really not on the metering side.
Brent Thielman - D.A. Davidson
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
Okay great, thank you.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Sir, your line is open
Thanks.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from Kevin Bennett of Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open.
Kevin Bennett - Sterne Agee
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Thanks, good morning everybody.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Good morning Kevin.
Evan Hart
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Good morning.
Kevin Bennett - Sterne Agee
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Two questions Greg. First, if we can talk housing for a second. You know you mentioned some of the headwinds out west that you saw late in the quarter. I’m wondering if you could talk about the other regions and I guess more specifically in terms of kind of new community development, what your seeing on that front?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Yes, when we made our comments about the west, as we said, we were surprised, because for the last four quarters we were seeing very, very nice growth out of the west and this quarter we only saw a 5% growth. So we really did a deep dive and said, okay on a year-over-year basis where are we seeing the real difference and we were able to identify over a year ago some pretty nice shipments that we’ve made to our distributors that was specifically earmarked for different housing developments that were going through the development process at that time. So Kevin that is why we were saying that hey, we think this downturn on a year-over-year basis from our expectations has been a slowdown from residential constructions. Relative to community accounts, I think the community counts continue to grow and move in a positive direction. We continue to see I think the statistics would indicate that land development continues to grow, albeit at a slower growth rate than what maybe we were seeing several quarters ago, and I think that’s what’s supporting our outlook of why we think in the second half of the year we are going to see the up-tick and further growth coming from residential constructions. But when I answered all of your questions that Kevin asked, if one were to ask us right now what’s the vulnerability in our forecast, it maybe are we going to see that kind of growth rate.
Kevin Bennett - Sterne Agee
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Certainly that makes sense. Thanks for that and then lastly Greg and I guess Evan, now that you guys have some financial flexibility, can you talk about your capital allocation plans going forward. I mean should we look for a dividend hike or a buyback or M&A or what are you thinking about on that front.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Again Kevin, good question. We do have the flexibility. When we look at our board. With our board we look at all the different options. I would say right now that our first priority would be is there an opportunity for us to grow our business, and we’ve said in the past and when we look on the acquisition side, it was acquisitions that have strengthened our position while our infrastructure will add to our technology that we would look very seriously. So we have flexibility, I say we looked at all options. I would say, as we look to the immediate future our priority would be either growth or other opportunities for us to grow the business.
Kevin Bennett - Sterne Agee
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Okay. Thanks Greg, I appreciate it.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Sterne Agee. Sir, your line is open
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And our next question is from Seth Weber of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Daniel Politzer - RBC Capital Markets
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Hey, good morning. This is actually Daniel Politzer on for Seth. So I guess going to your revised guidance for 2015, what’s your level of comfort with the incremental expectation. You guys have talked in the past about Anvil around 25% and Mueller around 35%. Should we still expect that for this year or kind of what are you thinking?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Sure, I’ll have Evan’s take that.
Evan Hart
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Certainly. When you look at our conversion margins, for the base business, which excludes metering products, and leak detection, we saw conversion margins of about 38% for our first quarter. And one variable that negatively impacted that conversion margin was about 800-basis point related to higher cost of components sourced from China by our Henry Pratt business. We have included that in the guidance we provided last quarter. So if you take that into effect, excluding this Mueller Co. base business conversion margin in the first quarter, it would have been around 46%, 47%. As you mentioned, we typical expect total Mueller Company conversion margins around 35% to-date; that’s on average and can fluctuate from quarter to quarter based on the mix and specifically the mix of a higher margin valves and hydrants. So certainly a base conversion margin fairly solid in around 46%. And then taking a look at Anvil conversion margins for the quarter, if you look at the volume, we saw conversion margins of around 30%, however I sighted in the prepared remarks that we negatively impacted some higher manufacturing costs due to a shut down. Excluding those costs and just taking a look at the business we saw conversion margins a little over 20% in the Anvil business, which is pretty close to our overall stated average of around 25%.
Daniel Politzer - RBC Capital Markets
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
So for the year would you still say 35%, around 25% for each of the business is…
Evan Hart
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
That’s right. When we look at full year, I would say that those conversion margins that we provide, we would see those and certainly that’s dependent upon the mix as we go forward, but we would expect conversion margins in that level.
Daniel Politzer - RBC Capital Markets
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Okay thanks. And another one, on the FX impact from the Canadian dollar, could you give an approximation of what the impact was on operating income from that?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Yes. Our currency exposure is primarily in Canada and just a little bit on sizing. If you look for the quarter, our consolidated net sales growth would have been about 55 basis points higher or 2.25% excluding the unfavorable exchange rates and adjusted operating income growth would have been 19% compared with 15.6%. And at Mueller Company our adjusted operating income would have improve about 12.5%, excluding the unfavorable exchange rates. So it’s all in Canada and I would say on the whole for the business from the revenue perspective, it impacted us a little under a $1.5 million and about $0.5 million on the operating income side.
Daniel Politzer - RBC Capital Markets
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Okay, great, thanks. I’ll leave it there.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question coming from Noah Kaye of Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Noah Kaye - Northland Capital Markets
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Yes, good morning. The capacity utilization, you’ve given data on that in the past. Can you tell us what it was this past quarter?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Yes. We signed found increase in both Anvil and Mueller Co. on a year-over-year. Mueller Co., we are estimating moved from about 62% overall a year ago up to about 67% this year in the first quarter and Anvil about 70%.
Noah Kaye - Northland Capital Markets
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Okay. And for Anvil you know, I imagine you have some pretty good visibility to the non-residential business, especially for large products. How much are you expecting the non-residential construction portion of Anvil to grow this year?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Yes, that’s a great question. And right now as we look at it, its pretty consistent with the guidance we gave last quarter. We are looking for around mid-single digit growth. If we look at our first quarter, we saw about 3% to 4% of growth of our products going into fire protection and mechanical systems in non-res construction spending. As we look, we think that should maybe and continue to increase slightly throughout the year. But as we look at where we fall in the construction cycle, that I would say now it would be difficult for us to guide any growth greater than that mid-single digit.
Noah Kaye - Northland Capital Markets
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
And just a follow-up on that, when you fall in the construction cycle. By that you mean you have some limit on visibility into the out quarters or are you suggesting that sort of fully baked into the year?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Yes, I think that’s fully baked into our year. As we said, we expect that the construction, we start seeing I think positive movement about 12 months, 14 months ago, but we have to see foundations in place, structural seal and some progress before our products get in. probably about I would say mid cycle of the construction project depending on specifically what it is. So I think that we are certainly are little more backend weighted and possibly when you look at non-construction and what appears to be happening in that market. We may even see some of that increase, flowing into our first quarter of our fiscal year 2016, even though it would still be in calendar year ’15.
Noah Kaye - Northland Capital Markets
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Great. And you mentioned I think a very substantial increase in the Mueller Systems backlog. I think you said 80%. Could you repeat that?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Yes, it was up 80%. Albeit its on smaller numbers for Mueller Systems. But we saw a nice continued growth in our order and as we said our orders were up on a year-over-year basis; 24% in the first quarter, the backlog growing. We said in the last call and we reiterated on this call that in the last six months we have seen request for proposal from larger cities that I don’t think have been around for the last couple of years. We continued to make I think real progress on those in the past quarter and we expect to win some of that business over the next several quarters. But yes, we are seeing positive activity both in our order rates, our closure rate, the growth of our backlog and that supports our expectation that on a year-over-year basis our sales will growth about 20% year-over-year over year in the second half of the year.
Noah Kaye - Northland Capital Markets
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Okay great. And would you be able to give us a backlog number?
Evan Hart
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Yes. Our backlog is between, but right now its about $16 million and $17 million.
Noah Kaye - Northland Capital Markets
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Okay great. Thank you so much.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Yes. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you and our next question is from Jo Giordano of Cowen. Your line is open. Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co.: Hi guys. How are you doing? I’m just curious, how much could mix in terms of residential construction. help offset growth in the overall numbers that if it fails to meet up to 15%. I guess if it was shifted more towards single family than it was last year, but the overall growth rate was not as much. How much can be offset by mix?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Cowen
You know Joe, certainly if we see a transition to more single family homes, that’s a plus for demand for our products and so if you are saying that mix in terms of hey overall housing starts may not reach the 15% growth, but we see a greater percent of growth coming from single family. That’s certainly could offset a short fall you know from the overall growth rate. But ask the question again, because I’m not sure that I just addressed the question you asked. Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co.: No, that did address it, thank you. How large is your export business? Like you mentioned you were talking about the mid-east components stuff like that?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Cowen
Yes. When you look at Mueller Co. in total, it’s about 5%. I think it becomes probably more impactful when you are discussion perhaps year-over-year movement in a particular quarter, but it trends around 5%. Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co.: Okay, and then just last for me, how would you kind of gauge your overall confidence level here versus where you were three months ago in terms of your outlook and I see what you said with the guidance, but how do you feel about your level of comfort now?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Cowen
I would say we are just as comfortable with demand for municipal spending as we were last quarter. I would say that our outlook for Mueller Systems, we feel just as comfortable given the order increase that we saw in the first quarter and the increase in our backlog. I would say that the fact that housing starts for the quarter ended December were less than 7% gives us maybe a little bit of pause saying gee, exiting the year at 7% and having a full year of 15% growth, that certainly could be a little concerning. But again, when we go through the macro actor that we did, it certainly could support that type of growth. We announced our price increase on valves and the hydrant in mid-February. We’ll know exactly to what extent this has been accepted by the marketplace based on the number orders that we put forward, but our competitors certainly appear to have followed. I would say the other area that when you look at total Mueller Water Products, certainly it has been the fall off in energy, in the oil and gas markets and that’s why we made the comments that we did and that we say if you look at the last six months. I mean we are sitting here and I imaging a lot of people who are sitting and saying what’s really going to happen over the next nine to 12 months in the oil and gas business. In a very short time, it changed pretty dramatically. So all we can do is provide an outlook based on what we are seeing and in the short term, as I said for the last six weeks, we saw a downturn on a year-over-year basis of about a 25% erosion in our fall off in our orders from oil and gas. So that certainly has changed from a quarter ago and probably makes us as we guided, feeling that Anvil’s overall performance will be less than what we though it would be a year ago. So Joe, I don’t know if that captures it all, but I’d say for the bulk of our business we feel very comfortable of both of our markets. Certainly maybe a little question mark on the growth rate in residential construction and oil and gas markets will negatively impact us. Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co.: Okay great. Thanks for the color guys.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Cowen
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from David Rose of Wedbush Securities. Sir your line is open.
David Rose - Wedbush Securities
Management
Good morning and thank you for taking my call. I have a couple of follow-ups and I maybe repetitive and then I was dropped, but if I may ask, in terms of the oil and gas exposure, can you break down down-stream, mid-stream and up-stream for us and provide us a little bit more color on what you’ve seen historically and maybe in terms of what’s MRO versus what’s related to CapEx.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Wedbush Securities. Sir your line is open
Yes. Our products are production related and we’re up-stream and we don’t typically see a lot of the MRO opportunity, because our products, they go into a process that don’t wear out. We are providing couplings for piping systems, for tank batteries and in gathering fields and so on. We have always found a good indicator for demand for our products as tied to the rig count, because I think that certainly is a probably good indicator of new production and we follow very closely. So we are really tied into that sector of the oil and gas market.
David Rose - Wedbush Securities
Management
And then in terms of your guidance for Canada released FX, have you baked in this guidance as the stronger dollar I’m assuming just to be clear?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Wedbush Securities. Sir your line is open
Yes. We would have baked in the guidance on the stronger dollar, but we also baked in – if you look at it last year for the full year, we shipped about $3 million of Mueller valves to the oil sands, we go and fire protection systems and right now we don’t think that business will repeat in 2015 given what’s going on in the oil and gas business.
David Rose - Wedbush Securities
Management
Okay, that’s helpful and then just a couple of quick ones is on the SG&A bump, was some of that from the leak detection business. How much of it was from the investment leak detection this quarter?
Evan Hart
Analyst · Wedbush Securities. Sir your line is open
Yes, when you take a look at SG&A, I would say that it was a small amount from some personal related expenses, just inflationary impacts, some costs associated with a small acquisition, a line above acquisition and then we also had SG&A associated with the write off of assets of a mirrored building, in our Anvil building that we indicated on the prepared remarks and just a bit on the investments related to our leak detection.
David Rose - Wedbush Securities
Management
Okay. And then last one is, your comments have been pretty clear about, you need a potential risk for your numbers in resi. Can you quantify a little bit what that would mean if resi grew at 7 or 10, versus 15, on a dollar basis? And then provide color as why not just assume a lower residential growth rate?
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Wedbush Securities. Sir your line is open
Yes, that will be something that we would really – obviously if we saw a decline from a growth with half of expectations it would impact us. Right now I really can’t quantify what that impact would be, but certainly it would be a follow-up in our valve and hydrant business and which we’ve discussed a number of times as our most profitable business.
David Rose - Wedbush Securities
Management
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Greg Hyland
Analyst · Wedbush Securities. Sir your line is open
Thanks David.
A - Greg Hyland
Analyst · Wedbush Securities. Sir your line is open
Well, seeing that there are no additional questions, that concludes today’s call. Thank you for your interest in Mueller Water Products and for joining us this morning.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And that concludes today’s conference. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.