Earnings Labs

Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 4, 2016

$27.66

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome and thank you all for standing by. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session of today's conference begins. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I'd like to introduce, Mrs. Martie Zakas, you may begin.

Marietta Edmunds Zakas - SVP, Strategy, Corporate Development and Communications

Management

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Mueller Water Products' 2016 Third Quarter Conference Call. We issued our press release reporting results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 yesterday afternoon. A copy of it is available on our website, muellerwaterproducts.com. Discussing the third quarter's results this morning are Greg Hyland, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Evan Hart, our CFO. This morning's call is being recorded and webcast live on the Internet. We have also posted slides on our website to help illustrate the quarter's results, as well as to address forward-looking statements and our non-GAAP disclosure requirement. At this time, please refer to Slide 2. This slide identifies certain non-GAAP financial measures referenced in our press release, on our slides and on this call, and discloses the reasons why we believe that these measures provide useful information to investors. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are included in the supplemental information within our press release and on our website. Slide 3 addresses forward-looking statements made on this call. This slide includes cautionary information identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in forward-looking statements, as well as specific examples of forward-looking statements. Please review Slides 2 and 3 in their entirety. During this call, all references to a specific year or quarter, unless specified otherwise, refer to our fiscal year. Our fiscal year ends on September 30. A replay of this morning's call will be available for 30 days after the call at 1-866-439-3740. The archived webcast and corresponding slides will be available for at least 90 days in the Investor Relations section of our website. In addition, we will furnish a copy of our prepared remarks on Form 8-K later this morning. After the prepared remarks, we will open the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Seth Weber, RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Seth. Evan L. Hart - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Good morning.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

I think first I just wanted to clarify some of the numbers that I think I heard. Echologics sales up 33% in the quarter, but orders were up 45% year-to-date. Was that correct? Evan L. Hart - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes, that's correct, Seth.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

And I guess, so my question there is – at these types of levels is that a critical mass? Is that big enough for that business to start to turn profitable as well, I guess maybe in the early part of next year? Where do you see sort of the threshold for the Echologics business now turning the corner as well, I guess is my first question? Evan L. Hart - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, Seth, we're still not quite there. Echologics, certainly as we've talked in the past, we've added fixed costs to the business on the selling side, on R&D and we're not obviously quite at the volume level to be able to cover that fixed cost. We're seeing very nice gross margin and when we do get to that level, we will have very high conversion rates. We think we're still probably – we could get there in 2017. It obviously depends on the continued adoption of our fixed leak detection. We've seen a nice growth in our fixed leak detection. That is different than our field work. Our field work is profitable, but it's lumpy. Fixed leak detection is more predictable, a more steady flow of -- more steady flow of income. So we would think that we probably need to see another overall 20% growth in sales and revenues to get to that breakeven point. We're not sure if we're going to get there – when we'll see that and if we see that in 2017 or not.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Perfect. That's very helpful. Thank you. And then I guess as a follow up question – just conceptually your net debt leverage is down 1.7. It's come down materially over the years, and your free cash flow is going up. So can you just update us on your current thoughts on capital allocation? I mean you have a small buyback in place. You did raise the dividend a little bit earlier this year. But what's your thinking here, given the improvement in the capital structure and the free cash flow look outlook? Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. Seth, good question. I know that a number of you have been following us a while, and know that several years ago, our balance sheet was constrained. More specifically, our net debt leverage was approaching 7 times. As you mentioned – as you know and Evan mentioned, at the quarter we just ended, it's 1.7 times. And given the confidence I think in our outlook and our expected free cash flow, we expect to have an even stronger balance sheet and to have more flexibility. And as you would expect, we're having a lot more detailed capital allocation discussions with our board. As you pointed out, during the last 12 months, we have increased dividends twice, repurchased some shares as part of a $50 million share buyback that has been approved by the board. We've also evaluated acquisition strategies. So at this point I can assure you that we are very thoughtfully looking at all capital allocation options that we believe will best drive shareholder value. But I think it's – when we talk about lead capital allocation at this point, I think it's also important to note that we still remember the days when our net debt leverage approached 7 times. So I think that we're taking this all into account when we look at possibilities. So we do think we have – we were at the point now where we can drive shareholder value with a very focused capital allocation plan. And I would say that where we are right now, we're not ready to comment on exactly what that plan will be, but I think, again, we have a lot more flexibility, we have a very positive outlook, and we think we have some real opportunity to drive shareholder value with the right capital allocation plan.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. As you think about M&A, is it primarily on the – just on the technologies, kind of smaller technology type tuck-in stuff or would you be thinking something a little bit more transformational, either from a product perspective or regionally? Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think we are certainly – we'd consider a look at both. It depends – I think it depends on the opportunity. I think we would look at a transformational acquisition, but I think that we would be very hesitant about – let me put it this way, we would certainly be very, very concerned and watch what our net debt leverage would be. And that's what I meant by the previous comment that, hey, it's still fresh in our minds, where we were.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Sure, sure. Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: So, we would look at something transformational, but I don't think that we would stretch the balance sheet too much beyond our comfort level, and I can never say what it exactly would be because it always depends on the acquisition and how quickly it would de-lever and so on. But I think that we've been pretty consistent to saying that we feel comfortable managing the business with net debt leverage at 3 times, but sort of look at that 4 times as a feeling, but it certainly would depend on the acquisition.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Terrific. I appreciate the thoughts. Thanks guys. Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Seth.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Wood, Macquarie. Your line is now open.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Hi there. This is Drew (27:41) on for Mike. Thanks for taking the questions. Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Absolutely.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Thanks. So, you say that you are on track with expectations. So I just wanted to ask if you could contrast the low double-digit growth for your base business in the second half with the 9% growth in valves, hydrants and brass products this past quarter, with the easy comps that you called out? Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I'm sorry. Would you repeat that again?

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Just on the low double-digit growth expectation for the second half in the base business, the 9% in valves, hydrants and brass products this quarter, despite easy comps. So I just wanted to get a comment on what you were thinking for the fourth quarter? Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. We are – of course, when we talked about double-digit growth, we're talking about our domestic valves, hydrants and brass products. And certainly that's the largest percent of our Mueller Co. business. And as we said, yes, we still expect double-digit growth. In fact, we expect that to grow – valves, hydrants and brass products to grow 10% in the fourth quarter. And in fact, in July, our orders for these products were up between 10% and 11%. So, I do think that we're on track to hit the outlook that we have been providing, I think throughout most of the year, and even one month, obviously doesn't make a quarter, but the order rate that we saw in July certainly supports the outlook that we provided, and again I think further highlights the comments. And I think the comment you just make about an easy comp, last year we were certainly saw a falloff in our orders in the third quarter. They didn't meet our expectations because of the weather, the heavy rains in a good portion of the country and our distributors were sitting with a lot of inventory as we entered the fourth quarter. This year, our distributor inventories look like they're in line where they typically expect them, between 35 days, 40 days. As I said, we saw a nice growth in orders in July and we still look at residential construction and municipal spending as being very solid. So, I think as we sit here today, that the outlook that we've provided the last – we're pretty confident that the outlook that we've given the last several quarters and reaffirm today that we will be able to achieve.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Thanks. And then just on raw materials, if you could comment maybe on any benefit you saw in the quarter and with steel prices going up, if that turns into headwind in the fourth quarter, if you need any additional price actions to recoup that increase in steel prices? Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, yes. Actually when we look at – both in our Mueller business and our Anvil business, on a sequential basis, we saw higher scrap steel costs, but year-over-year, our scrap steel costs are still down. So on a year-over-year basis, going into the fourth quarter, we expect that will be a tailwind. But however, since we did see an increase in the steel scrap prices, we did announce price increases on a number of our Anvil product lines, effective at the end of June. Those went anywhere from 4% to 8%. So we expect that we will start seeing maybe some of the benefits of that price increase in the – later in the fourth quarter. Relative to Mueller Co. we did put a price increase in February that we think more than offsets any impact that we may see on increased scrap steel prices. But again I think it's important to point out, we did see – we are seeing an increase – we did see an increase sequentially, but on a year-over-year basis, what we're paying for scrap and brass ingot is still down.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. Thanks guys. Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Walter Liptak, Seaport Global. Your line is now open.

Walter Scott Liptak - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi, thanks. Good morning, guys. Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Evan L. Hart - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Good morning.

Walter Scott Liptak - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst

I wanted to ask about the Mueller Co. business and that the order growth and backlog have built a little bit more. And basically, it sounds like throughout the quarter the orders were pretty strong, including in July. Why wasn't there – why didn't it flow through the revenue? Why was it still in backlog? Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. A couple of things. A couple of things, Walt. Some of the orders that we saw coming in, in the third quarter were actually for larger valves. Larger valves have a longer delivery lead time, and that's a positive for us too, because generally when we see projects that require larger valves, then pipelines that require smaller valves aren't too far behind. So one, given the mix, we did see a little more of the larger valves with longer lead times. The second thing that actually impacted us is that with most of our distributors, we do have a rebate program and it's based on them purchasing certain number of orders or volume with us throughout the year. And we've had several of our distributors achieve that level, where they move to the next level of rebate and again that's good news, and that gets subtracted from our revenue line. So I think that one, probably, what impacted the most, have seen less in the third quarter and supports our fourth quarter forecast, is we did see a higher mix of large diameter valves, which again as I said are a little longer lead time. And we are seeing that we are getting distributors that are getting to that level of rebate sooner this year than what we even expected, and that's coming a little bit off the top line.

Walter Scott Liptak - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. That sounds great. And are you starting to see the smaller valves come through behind these larger valves or is that something we might be able to look forward to next quarter? Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, the smaller valves have been strong throughout the year, but as I said, generally that we've seen – when we see an uptick in larger valves, that's a good – that's a good omen or a good driver of what we would expect down the road, to see an uptick in smaller valves. Because again, once they put the larger diameter pipeline in, generally smaller diameter pipelines will run off that larger diameter. But I think that that will be a couple of months before we see those projects driving demand for smaller valves.

Walter Scott Liptak - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you. Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ryan Connors, Boenning & Scattergood. Your line is now open. Ryan Michael Connors - Boenning & Scattergood, Inc. (Broker): Great. Thanks for taking my question. I apologize if I'm running over some covered ground here. I've been hopping on a couple of different calls. But I wanted to explore maybe, Evan, the divergence between GAAP and adjusted numbers. And in particular you mentioned in the press release the charge for the idle foundries. I'm just curious which facility that is, and that's a $5 million charge. What exactly was happening there? Evan L. Hart - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes. Several years ago, we shut down an Anvil foundry and plant in Statesboro, Georgia and moved production to our Columbia facility. Since that time, we have worked to take the appropriate steps to manage the site and recently started demolition, decommissioning, and recorded to the related charges that you outlined. We expect future expenses associated with this activity will be minimal. So effectively just in the quarter, we started the process to take down the building in South Georgia, and recorded the associated charges and we think that that's effectively all the charges that we'll need to take. Ryan Michael Connors - Boenning & Scattergood, Inc. (Broker): Got it. Okay. And then again, this has probably been talked about, maybe ad nauseam, but just the scrap steel tailwind and the margins in Mueller Co., Greg, over the last several years, you've talked about – you've kind of maintained that the peak margins that we saw in Mueller Co. in the past peak will probably not be revisited. And yet even if we sort of add-in Mueller Tech and Mueller Co. together to sort of form the synthetic legacy Mueller Co.,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And at this time, we don't have questions in queue. Gregory E. Hyland - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, then, thank you very much for joining us today in our call. Thanks for your interest in the company. And I'm sure we'll see you all soon.