Scott Hall
Analyst · Boenning & Scattergood. Ryan your line is now open
Yeah, I mean so to be clear when I say the dynamics are good, I think that land development dynamics are even better than housing stocks. And that's why I remain bullish for the year. I think that if you look the land development numbers you can see that they could realistically be in that kind of double slope, low double digit kind of 10% number. I think right now, before cash already went 9. And, we really need land development for hydrants and valves. I mean if you think about it a house gets started, there's already cold and sore in when the house gets started. So, we are kind of in the front end of the cycle. And that number you know, I think looks like 10%. On top of that home inventories are low, and house formations are running right around 1.2, 1.3 million a year and so if you think about all of those factors, I think that the fundamentals are 30%, 35% of the business, are really, really good for continued growth. But, on the other side, we have seen the census data would indicate right and I know you watch this, that the waterline business and the pseudo line business is actually been shrinking, spending. Even the water spending has been up, Infrastructure in water line and pseudo line has actually shrunk through November. And, this pause is really because too much of municipalities money has been spent on pumping stations, disaster recovery, de-watering pumps; you know things associated with Erma and Harvey, the California flooding. And, so we saw a lot of increase in spending but not all of it, kind of in our power alley. We are starting to see that term has been neglected, those areas will start to see owing up dollars, come back in especially in December and I think again in January. We are seeing good O&M activity, so I think we had a pause last year, you know when I'm spending, and it's returning. And, at the same time, we see it fairly favorable land development in number along the housing starts, along with home formations, which would indicate that the houses will be taken off the market. So, I feel pretty bush about demand.