Dave Ciesinski
Analyst · Consumer Edge. Your line is open.
I'm glad you asked this, Connor. It's an important question. So we subscribe to a range of different syndicated data sources. And when you look at the whole industry broadly and you look at it 52 weeks, 12 weeks, four weeks, you can see a very modest slowdown and it's across the board. You see full-service restaurants have pulled back modestly, QSR has pulled back modestly, these are our single digit pull backs that we're looking at here. And it's really impacting all of our customers. Everybody in the mix is being impacted by this. It's kind of step back and say, what is it that's driving this? Our view is that, consumers are continuing to work their way through a period of transition. Not an inflection, but a period of transition, driven by the combined effects of higher interest rates, but importantly, inflation, which is continuing to bite. And whether you're talking retail or food service, what really happens in these times is, consumers are really -- they go off autopilot instead of just going to the store and grabbing what they've always bought because they've always bought that or pulling into the restaurant because that's the place that they've always gone, they start to think about these choices. And consequently, sometimes they might buy, and sometimes they might consider buying somebody else. So if you look at it very, very broadly, we are seeing that modest single-digit slowdown across the portfolio. Foods -- full service impacted more than quick service, but across the board. Now as far as our view, what we've seen in these times is our business has really two hedges built in. One is, as consumers become concerned about away from home dining and they eat at home, it typically endures to the benefit of our portfolio. As we look at what's happening away from home though, importantly, as traffic starts to moderate at any one of our concepts, or really any operator's concept period, they typically will back off and say, what do we need to do to drive traffic back into these stores? And it really creates an intense period of innovation for a lot of these operators. And if passed this prologue, we get those calls, and we work with them on signature items, signature sauces that they can advertise to drive traffic back into the store. What I would share with you, Connor, is that, we're already starting to see that activity happen and we're already engaged in those sorts of discussions with our operators. So what I would tell you, our view on the business is, we believe that we're always going to be positioned to have the chance to perform in the top quartile of our peer group. And we continue to believe that that's true a year and a half ago, and we believe that it's true going forward.