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Namib Minerals Ordinary Shares (NAMM)

NASDAQ·Basic Materials·Gold

$2.01

-5.63%

Mkt Cap $116.05M

Q4 2025 Earnings Call

Namib Minerals Ordinary Shares (NAMM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Results

Reported Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Results

Earnings reported

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Revenue

$10.40B

Estimate

$10.40B

Surprise

+0.00%

YoY +8.70%

EPS

$3.00

Estimate

$3.00

Surprise

+0.00%

YoY +12.40%

Share Price Reaction

Same-Day

+0.00%

1-Week

-1.90%

Prior Close

$184.21

Transcript

Operator:

Thank you, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today for Namib Minerals 2025 Earnings Call. Joining me is Tulani Sikwila, Chief Executive and Chief Financial Officer of Namib Minerals. Please note that we will be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements reflect our views only as of today and should not be relied upon as representative of views of any subsequent date. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. A discussion of these factors can be found in our SEC filings, including our Form 20-F filed on April 2, 2026, and the risk factors and forward-looking statements in our public communications. We do not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements. Today's remarks also reference non-IFRS measurements such as adjusted EBITDA and all-in sustaining cost per ounce. These measures are intended to supplement, not substitute IFRS results. Definitions and reconciliations are available in our filings with the SEC, including our Form 20-F. Additionally, mineral resource and reserve estimates are subject to uncertainty and may not convert to reserves or mined gold. Investors should not assume that any resources will be economically or legally minable. Please refer to our public disclosures for complete definitions and cautionary language in accordance with SEC Regulation S-K 1300. With that, let me turn the call over to Tulani. Tulani Sikwila: Thank you, and good day, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Namib Minerals Full Year 2025 Results Call. I will give an overview of our progress over the year as well as some recent developments before going into detail on the financials. 2025 was a year of disciplined progress for Namib Minerals as we continue to execute against our strategy of building a scalable capital-efficient African gold production platform. At a high level, our focus remains unchanged, optimize operations, increase production capacity and expand our resource base in a disciplined manner. During 2025, we made meaningful advances across our operations. At How Mine, the decrease in production was offset by a high gold price. Regarding the 2025 guidance management delivered on production within range and exceeded on group all-in sustaining costs and EBITDA. For the full year, the company produced approximately 25,000 ounces of gold, generated revenue of $82.6 million, reported adjusted EBITDA of $29 million, net earnings of $101 million after taking account $164.5 million change in fair value of earnout liabilities and warrants. Offset by $65.4 million non-recurring listing expenses, resulting in an operating cash flow of $13.5 million before investing activities. Resource expansion represents a critical value creation lever for the company, and we achieved substantial resource growth at How Mine over the course of the year as exploration revealed greater viable deposits in the ore body. At the same time for gold prices lowered the cutoff grades. Both factors strengthened our long-term outlook of the asset and reinforced our confidence in its continued contribution to the business. Cost management remains critical across all our operations, and we successfully maintained operating costs within both budget and prior year ranges. Our mine costs and all-in sustaining costs were below guidance, reflecting continued cost discipline across the operation. Our priority at How Mine remains operational optimization and incremental improvement as well as disciplined approach to cost management. We are focused on increasing throughput, improving equipment availability, maintaining recovery rates and stabilizing the grade. We have put in place several initiatives to improve grade consistency, including tighter grade control, improved mine planning and stronger operating discipline underground that will support more predictable production and costs performance over time. We are also continuing to advance the planned 36% increase in ore milling capacity from 40,500 to 55,000 tonnes per month. The project is progressing well with key equipment procurement and installation underway. It remains on track for commissioning in the second half of 2026. This expansion is an important step in improving the long-term productive capacity of How Mine and supporting lower unit costs through greater operating leverage. Based on our current mine plan and operating expectations, we are guiding to production of 28,000 to 31,500 ounces with an all-in sustaining cost of between $2,400 and $2,700 per ounce and an adjusted EBITDA of between $50 million to $62 million. This guidance is based on a gold price of $4,500 per ounce. Turning to Redwing. This mine remains an important strategic growth project. As previously announced, dewatering activities officially commenced on 29 January, 2026, and I'm pleased to say that progress to date is meeting expectations with a significant volume of water expected to be removed over an approximate 8-month dewatering period with the dewatering process expected to be completed by late 2026. We recognize there has been some investor focus on timing and sequencing, and we want to be clear about the structured approach to development. Dewatering is only the first step. There are 3 phases to the project. First, we complete the dewatering process. Second, and concurrently, we undertake exploration and a definitive feasibility study based on actual underground access, condition assessments and engineering work. Third, we move into the mine development and build-out phase required to support long-term production. So to be clear, we're not planning to dewater the mine and then move immediately into small-scale or early-stage mining. Our objective is to develop a larger sustainable mining operation at Redwing, and that requires a disciplined and technically robust approach. We believe this is the right way to maximize long-term value, reduce execution risk and build an operation with a stronger production and lower cost profile over time. It is important to frame our capital requirements correctly. The current estimated capital requirement for Redwing and Mazowe is approximately between $300 million to $400 million, but that capital is not required all at once in one funding arrangement. It is expected to be phased over life of the development program into various tranches and aligned to key project milestones. Our capital allocation philosophy is straightforward and disciplined. We will prioritize optimizing existing production at How Mine whilst improving the grade, funding high-return growth initiatives and maintaining balance sheet flexibility. We are very aware of the importance of protecting shareholder value and remain disciplined in our approach to capital allocation, including careful consideration of any equity issuance. Accordingly, we are focused on pursuing non-dilutive or minimum dilutive funding solutions wherever possible. In that regard, we have engaged with strategic capital providers, namely development finance institutions as part of a broader process to evaluate and raise the required funding in a phased and systematic manner. Our objective is to finance the Redwing and Mazowe restarts responsibly in a way that aligns capital deployment, lowers risks and preserves as much shareholder value as possible. We have recently strengthened our leadership platform of the company. In March, I assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer following Ibrahima Tall's decision to step down. We are grateful to Ibrahima for his leadership and contributions during an important period of the company's development. This transition provides continuity in strategy and execution while positioning us for further expansion. We also appointed Antonio Nieto as Vice President of Technical Services, which adds further operational and technical depth to support our brownfield restart projects and exploration initiatives. In addition, search processes for a Chief Financial Officer and a Chief Operating Officer are underway. As we continue to strengthen the leadership team, our focus is on ensuring that Namib has the operational, technical and governance capability required to execute the next phase of growth. While short-term share price performance can be influenced by a range of market factors, including trading liquidity and broader market dynamics, our focus remains firmly on executing our strategy. That means delivering operational progress, allocating capital responsibly and advancing the milestones that underpin the long-term value of this business. As we continue to execute across our How and Redwing mines, we believe the underlying value of Namib Minerals will become increasingly visible to the market. In addition to the headline numbers above, I want to discuss the financial results in more detail. I will cover 5 areas. Revenue and production, cost performance and margins, cash flow and the balance sheet. I will then close with our 2026 outlook. Let me start with the tailwind that defined 2025. The average realized gold price of $3,156 per ounce, up 44% from $2,185 per ounce in 2024. This meant the group came in at $82.6 million, broadly in line with 2024's $85.9 million despite a reduction in production volumes. So the gold price effectively absorbed the volume shortfall and the operating leverage becomes considerably more powerful as production recovers. On production, gold output at How Mine was 25,000 ounces with 24,860 ounces sold. This was below 2024's 36,743 ounces produced. This reduction reflects transition between ore bodies as we advance underground development. Mill throughput was flat at 476,000 tonnes and recovery held at 89%. The plant performed well with a head grade average of 1.9 grams per tonne. On costs, production costs were $37 million, down 4% from $38.7 million in the prior year. In absolute dollar terms, we spent less to run the mine -- that reflects disciplined headcount management, controlled mine input consumption and optimized power costs. On a per ounce basis, cash costs rose approximately $1,653 per ounce from $1,150 per ounce. As with other mining companies, our cost base is largely fixed. So fewer ounces across the same fixed base mechanically increase the per unit cost. That is not a cost problem. It's a volume problem. And volume is exactly what our development investment will address at 28,000 ounces to 31,500 ounces, our 2026 target, this same cost base delivers cash costs closer to $1,400 and $1,650 per ounce. For 2025, gross profit was $34.2 million, which translated to a gross margin of 41.4%, maintaining a margin above 40% through reduced production levels speaks to the underlying quality of How Mine and the strength of the current gold price environment. I now want to address 3 large noncash items in our reported profit and loss. None of these affect cash, and I'll take them in turn. First, the earn-out liability. Under our business combination agreement, founding shareholders are entitled to receive additional ordinary shares upon achieving certain operational milestones relating to feasibility studies and commercial production at Mazowe, Redwing and DRC exploration projects. At closing in June 2025, we recognized this earn-out at a fair value of $168.7 million. By the 31st of December 2025, the fair value had declined to $9.9 million, resulting in a gain of $158.8 million in profit and loss. The reduction results from the decline in the share price used to calculate the fair value. Full disclosure on related assumptions can be found in the notes to our audited financial statements, which has been filed. Second, the warrant liability. The public and private warrants assumed through the transaction were classified as derivative liabilities and marked to market at each reporting period. The $5.7 million gain reflects the decline in our warrant price over the period. Third, the listing expense. Because Hennessy Capital VI did not meet the definition of a business under IFRS 3, the transaction was accounted for as a share-based payment, effectively the cost of obtaining a public listing. The $65.4 million listing expense was noncash and will not recur. Stripping out these 3 noncash items and adding back depreciation, amortization, net finance costs and the $10.2 million in nonrecurring transaction expense related to the listing, 2025 adjusted EBITDA came in at $29 million, up 18% from $24.5 million in the prior year. So despite a drop in production, adjusted EBITDA grew, and this is a metric we believe best reflects the underlying cash generating capacity of this business. Cash flow generated from operations was $13.8 million after payment of $11.2 million for interest and tax. That is a strong result given the production headwinds, and it demonstrates the cash generating capacity of How Mine even at low production levels. On investing, total outflows were $12.4 million, up from $10.1 million. This was primarily $11.3 million in property, plant and equipment investments at How Mine, shaft deepening development drives and equipment replacement. This represents what we view as peak capital intensity at How Mine. As these programs complete through 2026, we expect sustaining capital expenditure to normalize to $5 million to $6 million per annum, which has recovered production levels and assuming all else is equal, should generate additional free cash flow. Turning to the balance sheet. I want to highlight 3 points. First, total assets were $62.8 million, up from $51 million, primarily driven by the deployment of development capital into PPE. Then second, net debt was $3.3 million, a very manageable level relative to our cash generation. And we believe our PPE carrying value of $41 million understates the true replacement cost of a full operational underground mine. The shareholders' deficit of $39.3 million is largely influenced by the SPAC transaction mechanics, specifically the earnout liability recognition at closing. We do not believe this reflects the intrinsic value of our mining assets. Let me close this section with our expectations for 2026 because I want to be specific about why we believe this year represents a step change in performance. First, production growth. As discussed earlier, we are expanding our ore milling capacity at How Mine and targeting production approaching 28,000 to 31,500 ounces. That target, combined with strong current gold price translates to material revenue and margin uplift. Second, unit cost normalization. At 28,000 to 31,500 ounces, our current cost base C1 costs move back towards $1,400 per ounce to $1,650 per ounce. And as sustaining capital expenditure normalizes, we see a clear path to all-in sustaining cost of $2,400 an ounce to $2,700 an ounce. Third, Mazowe and Redwing. We have engaged WSP Global to conduct an SEC S-K 1300 compliant definitive feasibility study at both Mazowe and Redwing. With results expected within 12 to 18 months. At Redwing specifically, an 8-month dewatering program commenced in January 2026, the critical first step towards restarting underground mining. On funding, the total expansion program across all assets is estimated at $300 million to $400 million. Our strategy is to pursue nondilutive or minimal dilutive funding solutions wherever possible as well as utilize internally generated cash. In summary, 2025 was a year of disciplined progress and investment. We made the right capital decisions to deliver against our core operating objectives at How Mine. We advanced the next restart phase at Redwing. We managed costs well, and we delivered adjusted EBITDA growth despite production headwinds. The gold price environment validates the asset quality and the development work completed in 2025 sets up what we believe will be a materially stronger 2026. Looking ahead, our priorities are clear: continue stabilizing and optimizing How Mine, advance Redwing through dewatering and into feasibility stage, allocate capital with discipline and position Namib Minerals for sustainable long-term growth. We remain confident in the strategic direction of the company and in the value creation potential of our asset base. I'll now turn to questions that have been submitted by investors. Operator: Our first investor question is as follows. How is the current conflict in the Middle East impacting the business? Tulani Sikwila: It's something we are watching closely. And I think anyone in the gold space would be paying attention right now. What the conflict has really illustrated is just how sensitive the gold price can be to the day's headlines. We've seen that volatility play out in real time. But honestly, that's not new to us. And it doesn't change our view that gold will sustain levels over the long term that keep our operations firmly in profitable territory. On the cost side, the main concern people usually raise is fuel, specifically diesel. And I want to be straightforward on this. It's actually a relatively modest part of our overall cost base. So while we are not dismissing the situation, we don't see any material impact on the business from where we stand today. Operator: Our next question is, is dewatering at Redwing progressing as expected? When do you anticipate the process being completed? Tulani Sikwila: I'm pleased to say that it is going well. Progress has tracked closely with our planned time line. To give you a sense of where we are at the moment, we've pumped roughly 145,000 cubic meters of water, which has brought the water level down to about 7.8 meters. This is a meaningful milestone. And based on everything we are seeing from data that we've gathered, we feel confident we are on track to hit our targets for this phase. I don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but the trajectory is encouraging. Operator: Our next question is, do you have any update on funding for your expansion program, particularly for the Redwing Mine? Tulani Sikwila: I appreciate the question because I know it's front of mind for all investors. What I can tell you is that we are actively working through our financing options, and we're having the right conversations. The thing I want to emphasize though is we are approaching this with real discipline. Our priority is protecting the shareholder value while securing the capital we need, and we won't rush into something that doesn't meet that bar. I don't have anything specific to announce today, but we do expect to be in a position to update investors soon. And we'll communicate as soon as we are able to. Operator: Our next question is, can you provide an update on your plans in the DRC? Is the interest in 13 exploration assets previously mentioned still active? Tulani Sikwila: To be transparent about it, we made a deliberate decision to let those licenses lapse. After a thorough look at each of those properties, we concluded that pursuing exploration there wasn't the best use of our capital or the team's bandwidth at this stage. That's the kind of distinct call we think we have to be willing to make. That decision itself does not reflect our view of the DRC as a whole. We still see it as a genuinely compelling long-term opportunity for Namib, and we are staying engaged in identifying assets that are the right fit for us strategically from a capital allocation standpoint. Operator: And our next and final question is now that you are back in compliance with the minimum market value requirement for publicly held shares, what are you doing on the Investor Relations front to make sure the stock maintains sufficient liquidity and stays comfortably above the minimum threshold going forward? Tulani Sikwila: We are obviously relieved to have that behind us and are focused squarely on keeping it that way. But to be honest, the most sustainable way to address this isn't through any single IR initiative. It's by executing our business plan, optimizing production at How Mine, advancing Redwing in a capital-efficient way and maintaining the financial discipline. That's what drives a broader investor base and ultimately, a valuation that reflects what we believe this company is worth. That said, we do have an active Investor Relations program running in parallel, focused on increasing our visibility and making sure more investors understand our equity story. Both things matter to us, but the fundamentals come first. Operator: Thank you, Tulani, and thank you to everyone for joining us. That concludes today's call.

AI Summary

First 500 words from the call

Operator: Thank you, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today for Namib Minerals 2025 Earnings Call. Joining me is Tulani Sikwila, Chief Executive and Chief Financial Officer of Namib Minerals. Please note that we will be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements reflect our views only as of today and should not be relied upon as representative of views of any subsequent date. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. A discussion of these

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