Earnings Labs

Nordic American Tankers Limited (NAT)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 20, 2019

$5.68

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. And welcome to today’s Nordic American Tankers conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-answer-session. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today, Wednesday, February 20, 2019. Please be aware that in the following remarks, statements made with respect to Nordic American Tankers current plans, estimate, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements about the future performance of NAT. These statements are based on management’s assumptions in light of the information currently available to it. And therefore, you should not place undue reliance on them. NAT cautions you that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements. For additional information as to risks and uncertainties as well as other factors that could cause actual results to differ. Please refer to today’s press release, which you can access by visiting the Company’s website. And I would like to hand over the conference to your speaker today Herbjørn Hansson, Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead, sir. Herbjørn Hansson: Good morning and good afternoon, good friends. It gives me great pleasure to address you today and to talk about pertinent features as regards Nordic American Tankers Limited. We feel it little bit at home when discussing with you. As you know, we have the American flag in our logo and we have the Norwegian flag in our logo. This company has 100,000 – about 100,000 shareholders in America, in the United States above all, also a few in other places in the world. But we indeed, as I mentioned the feel at home here, we have…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of Greg Lewis from BTIG. Please ask your question.

Greg Lewis

Analyst

Yes. Hi, Herbjørn and Bjørn, this is Greg Lewis. I guess, what I would say is, first, congratulations on the new credit facility. Quarterly, that puts you guys in a better position today than you were saying a month ago. But I mean, just as we think about it, big picture, what is sort of – Herbjørn, how were you thinking about trying to position NAT, what’s your sort of vision for this company now as we think about the next two to three years, which is looking like it’s going to be an improving tanker market? Herbjørn Hansson: I’ll come back to my introductory remarks, either we go upwards, sidewards or down. This company is on its way. There is one question that we had not discussed, Greg, at all. And that is the market itself. We could make $100 million, $120 million cash-wise in 2019. And therefore, I foresee – expansion of the company that expansion will primarily come via the market. And this company will grow. No question. This company will build on our relationship with Big Oil, Shell, ExxonMobil, British Petroleum, Chinese oil companies. And this company will build on dividend. We have had some tough times recently in the industry. And we are now – we have $0.04 as a dividend this time. And obviously, even a blind man can see that, yes, let’s go for more dividend, if the tanker market improves. And then essentially, and then we can speculate and discuss whether the tanker markets that will improve or not. We are not in the guessing business better there is no question that it looks fine the prospects for the tanker market in my judgment and in our judgment, looks very, very fine. And the numbers show that we have now achieved a much more efficient financing and we are moving “moving things to America”, because that is in America that we belong. We are not a Norwegian company at all. We are a Bermuda-based company listed in America, many places. NYSE is a big place for us of course, having about 20% of all the stuff being trade is on NYSE. And then we had the so-called [indiscernible] all over the America. And we have the locations that we visit. And all our friends, Bjørn and I and my colleagues, we had met 1,000 analysts and investors all over America over these many years. And we are not Americans, but to be foreigners, we understand very much what’s going on in your country, Greg. Back to the vision, that is to say it very, very in a summarizing way, we will reap money from the market, because we essentially have two stopping points when it comes to this vision. Either the world goes on or the world does not go on. And then our judgment, the world is very promising at this time. Thank you, Greg. Thank you for asking such a good question.

Greg Lewis

Analyst

Okay. And then just one follow-up for me around the dividend, I mean, historically, that has – dollar came in the door and dollar was paid out as dividend. As we think about cash flows and the use of – in the thought around the dividend and the balance sheet. How should we be thinking about the use of cash and how that’s going to translate? What sort of the plan around the dividend? Herbjørn Hansson: What you are really asking, as you know, is a risk management question. And we will not take on too much debt and convert the debt, if you wish to pay dividend. That’s very important. It has to do with this attitude that I mentioned to you on one of my slides to be conservative financially. I’m one of the largest shareholders of this company and I bought that and my family has – we have got tens and tens of millions of dollars in this company. And they can assure you, we are not going to spoil these money, but I’m telling you, we wish to be conservative in this strong market. We will pay more dividends that we had done in the past. No question. But I wouldn’t like to put a figure to it. But what we do see now that I referred to earlier, we are now collecting about $25,000 a day or more in the marketplace. And that you should know is it lot of volume for this company. And we have all our ships with the exception of few in the marketplace in the spot market. And we – if you believe the market, we comment again, and we would then have a much better basis for paying dividend that we – than we had in the past. But I wouldn’t put the number to it, Greg. That would not be right.

Greg Lewis

Analyst

Okay. Perfect, gentlemen. Thank you very much for the time. Herbjørn Hansson: Thank you, Greg.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, gentlemen. And the next question comes from the line of Randy Giveans from Jefferies. Please ask your question.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Hey, great to hear from you Herbjørn. This is Randy Giveans from Houston. So you certainly have good representation here in Texas. Herbjørn Hansson: Thank you, Randy.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Yes, absolutely. So, yes, it’s been a while since your last earnings call and this call certainly did not disappoint. So appreciate all the color on everything. I’ve just had a follow-up question on your plans to comply with IMO 2020. You mentioned in your vessels are able obviously to run on the 0.1% sulfur fuel. I’m assuming they currently run on the 3.5% sulfur fuel when crossing large oceans. But that said, do you have any concerns regarding VLSFO availability or compatibility of new 0.5% sulfur blends? Herbjørn Hansson: Did you get to question Bjørn? Bjørn Giæver: No, I think first I can answer, that our vessels are already running on 0.1% compliant fuel in acre areas that’s been implemented few years ago. So… Herbjørn Hansson: Its mainly the areas are…

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Emission control areas, where is North America and the Europe, Northern Europe. Herbjørn Hansson: Yes.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

So all right, it’s kind of run on the compliant fuel already. So that’s not an issue. Herbjørn Hansson: But if I may just to illustrate or thinking of about 80,000 ships in the world and they of about 3000 or less that have scrubbers. And those who are strong advocate for scrubbers, they are owning companies selling scrubbers you know. I think it is the wrong notion to go for scrubbers. I say it a little bit jokingly, but if you can make profit by selling cookies here in Sandefjord, Norway, we wouldn’t start selling cookies, because that’s outside the scope of our strategic thinking. And we wish to minimize our risk. We don’t wish to make maximize our risk. Why should we? That is my question. And I mentioned the London Beal, why should we take on risks that we don’t have to take on. But this is a big fight if you wish between the Big Oil and governments, it has to do with the Paris Protocol and it has to do with the Kyoto Protocol and international business. We wish to be on the side that is reducing pollution and not on the side of increasing pollution. And today they burn about 100 million barrels a day worldwide in oil. And the dirty oil is so called 380 centistokes. We wish to have the oil companies carry that burden. And the oil companies to reduce it from 100 million to 98 million. And the oil companies would like us, the shipping people to carry the thing you know. And we – there is a little fight going on here. I said that the two top man in an oil company being in charge on Northern Europe. And I said this is how we look at it, the question of scrubbers. And he said to me when you presented it in a very simple way, yes, you are right, I said, but we are simple people, running a simple company and we are very predictable. And in summary, we don’t wish to take on new risks, because we have so many risks. We have risk of currency, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Yes. I guess my question was around the risk of new blends for the 0.5% sulfur. But if you’re just going to buy the 0.1% MGO, there is no risk there, understandable that. So let me move on to another question. So you sold your last two Suezmax’s from the 1990s, you sell at eight vessels, around 15 to 18 years of age. So two questions for those. When do you expect to sell some of these older vessels and then when it comes to fleet renewal, whether it be by ordering additional new buildings or acquiring younger secondhand vessels? Herbjørn Hansson: I – the question is, when you look upon, I have a degree in History, I must tell you, but when you look at history, there is one big thing that has happened in this business. That was in 1989, when captain Hazelwood went ground with the Exxon Valdez in – and that is a big change taking place, big change. Ship owners they have normally orders build new ships and killing themselves that is the history of ship owners over the years. And we don’t wish to join that gang. We believe our thinking, but we have a very good ability to change your mind if that should be warranted. But our thinking at this time is to go for secondhand ships. We don’t wish to go for new buildings now, simply because the financial burden with the secondhand ship is lower than the financial burden of a new ship. That’s point number one. And point number two, we did with the most critical customers in the world Big Oil, and they charted over ships, be there for 10 years or 20 years or 5 years. There was no difference there, because it is the quality that metal. But to be very precise, we wish to buy secondhand ships. I wouldn’t say no to new buildings, but that is not on the cost.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Sure, sure. Okay. And that’s one final question. Yeah, congrats on the new Beal Bank from also here in Texas financing. Just looking at the terms on that, what’s a good interest rate range for that for modeling purposes? Herbjørn Hansson: 6% to 8% they say. Yes, but it doesn’t – I wouldn’t go into the details, but I’m very pleased with the cooperation with Beal Bank, because they are very much, I believe very much like ourselves. When somebody runs in one direction, they run in the opposite direction. And that is exactly the same with Nordic American Tankers. But somebody runs in this direction, Nordic American Tankers is running in the opposite direction. And my previous, I used to be have many years ago, number two man in one of the biggest groups in Norway and then we always said when we had a good idea, the question is not whether it is a percentage for down, that is not the question. The question is whether we do it and I happen to believe and I believe based upon our relationship with Texas where you are living around it and our approach to America, I believe that this is one of the best transactions strategically that we have done.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Yes, I think you mentioned it was better terms than the old revolving credit facility. Herbjørn Hansson: Yes, absolutely.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Nice. Excellent. Hey, I’ll jump off. Thank you again. Good to catch up. Herbjørn Hansson: Thank you, Randy.

Operator

Operator

Thanks a lot, sir. And the next question comes from the line of Liam Burke from B.Riley FBR. Please ask your question.

Liam Burke

Analyst

Yes, thank you, and good afternoon. You talked about early or the quarter-to-date for 2019, where we’re seeing nice, strong, bouncing of the TCE rates. Can you give us any indication on how much momentum you see to the balance of the year with a strong start to 2019? Herbjørn Hansson: Yes. Are you calling in from Los Angeles?

Liam Burke

Analyst

No, I’m calling in from Washington, D.C. Herbjørn Hansson: Okay. That’s good, a great day. I know very well Washington, D.C., but I shall not talk about that now. I think strategically we are in a very good position now, not many ships on order, world economy is strong. Trump will find the solution in the Far East. Political uncertainty is good for the tanker business. And I feel good about this. And of course, if I gave you a number, you would put it down in your notebook and you will come back in end December and say where you were wrong or right. It was right. I think that the overall scene stage looks fine. Just to say as we had last year, we predicted and we said in writing that the tanker market would turn last year and it did turn last year. We had moved very nicely into 2019, goes a little up, it goes a little down. But when there is volatility, that is a good measure all at balanced market – of a balanced market, when there’s volatility. And as long as we can have our quality stand, we have a quality stand in this company. And I’m very proud of that. All our people assure and on board, who are our good representatives. We have a good quality staff, which is important. As I mentioned during this conversation, people trust us and that trust our ships. And I could give a speech about risk management and about the tanker market for just about an hour. But I wouldn’t spend your time listening to me about this. But I’m encouraged, I’m encouraged and we have generate a lot of cash this year based on the presumption that there were goes on. Because it’s very strange, some people are nervous about the tanker business and then tell that, if you are nervous, you should not be the tanker business. But what I’m saying is – and they are concerned about when it’s up, they are concerned that could fall and when it’s down, they are concerned that will not arise. Generally speaking that tanker business is looking promising for this year. And I could give you directional for that, but that would take a long time and long – much more times than we have on this call by late. Yes, please.

Liam Burke

Analyst

You mentioned that your cash flow generation will be strong this year with higher TCEs. Your balance sheet is a much better shape with the refinancing. Your dividend is what it is. Is it priority for a paying down debt? Is it priority for looking for other assets, as you mentioned in the earlier question. Or how does that cash get allocated, when you’re looking at different alternatives for it. Herbjørn Hansson: As I said to you that the objective is to have no debt in this company. That is the objective. And the next thing, I said, we base ourselves on a conservative financial attitude. The third thing I mentioned, it is a question of risk management, but I and we, our priorities will be the customers and the shareholders. These are the two priorities and dividend will be an important element in this picture. What the future is holding, nobody knows, but we are in the business of making money that is for sure to our shareholders. And we are in the business of heading a good friends in the oil industry, where we – they appreciate our honesty, they appreciate our integrity. And we will focus on the oil industry and on the government. I will tell you one more, one more thing, that I didn’t touch upon in my previous information, exports here. And I said big change taking place in America, now you in America are exporting oil and we are talking about big numbers, 2 million barrels a day. According to the latest statistics, 2 million barrels today, simply because of the shale oil has become much more profitable, even down to a price of $50 per barrel. And this change in the picture in America that you export oil, it’s a new feature…

Operator

Operator

Thanks a lot. And the next question comes from the line of Fotis Giannakoulis from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Yes. Hi, Herbjørn. Hi, Bjørn and thank you for the opportunity. Congratulations for this new financing. This is a new bank that you bring into the picture, I’ve never heard about this bank had done any other shipping financing before. Can you give us a little bit more background of how did you find them? Is this a sign that the more lenders are willing to finance the shipping industry? It seems that there is a drought right now in financing and this is something new that we see here. Herbjørn Hansson: This is the first class bank dominated the first class person, who is one of the richest persons in America I have been told. And it is – we don’t wish to borrow money from anybody, who doesn’t wish to lend us money. And we’re very proudly give them the money back. We are not willing to lend money from our people. Not at all, we wish to come back, Fotis, to where we were few years ago, when we had no debt, when I had search there and esteemed a Greek gentlemen on the phone, it’s Fotis from Morgan Stanley. I must say the first one that the first people I met in the shipping industry was [indiscernible] Assets. You may have heard about. Many years ago, but that’s a different story. We have an excellent relationship with the Greek shipping community. But this is not a new bank, but this is a good bank. And we must think new and we think new and the bank things new and everybody. The day you don’t think in a new way that is a bad day.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you very much, Herbjørn. One more, you mentioned about the U.S. exports, we had a surge in tanker rates last week and it seems that this is because of an increasing U.S. crude exports. Can you give us some color of – what you have seen the last few days? And your estimate, how much crude can the U.S. export? What are the constraints right now over the next couple of years? This 2 million barrels per day, how much it can grow to help the tanker market get even stronger. Herbjørn Hansson: It has of course to do with the price differential between the Brent oil oversea and the so called Western Texas, WTI. And I wouldn’t give you a detail on this. It has to do with Saudi Arabia, it has to do with Iran, it has to do – we carry a lot of oil in that area as well. And it has to do with the difference of the price in America. Price differentiates between the Brent and the WTI now is over $10 a barrel. And therefore it is positive for – and there are arbitrage opportunities. And U.S. export to Europe will mainly be driven by Europe’s demand for gas oil, meaning diesel oil. Europe is short on gas oil particularly now on the advent of the IMO 2020 regulations. Best, it’s difficult to say best. There is a free market and when the [Audio Dip] of change, we see a change in picture right away, right away. And it’s very encouraging that we see this lifted increase from America, because from our perspective, it is good for the tanker industry and that is essentially our main view. But you know, much more than I thought so I rather have to listen to you at the conference call.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

That’s a very kind of you Herbjørn, but you have the experience here. One last question. You know very well Middle Eastern. Right now Saudi Arabia is burning a lot of crude for it’s power generation. Do you think that with IMO 2020 they might instead of burning crude, they may start exporting it and instead started burning fuel oil. Do you see any benefits from this potential suites from burning crude for electricity into fuel oil. Any benefit for the tanker market? Herbjørn Hansson: I haven’t studied that in detail, but if I should venture to give you a little summary of the stage. There is a fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia is bumping in Yemen, our ships goes in that area and we have tough times with people trying to get onto our ships. And what we call it, pirates, pirates. But Saudi is now producing 9.8 million as we mentioned, as compared to 11.3 million. Saudi Arabia is under the wings of America, no question. The big question in that area is the extent to which America will keep their wings at Saudi Arabia, that is the big question. I don’t know the answer to this question. It has to do with Iran. But this I wouldn’t say technical question, but how they will act in the future, I don’t know. I think you don’t know who this. But they do know that there is a strong force in Saudi Arabia for women’s liberation, women’s liberation that is overriding the political scene in Saudi Arabia. But what would happen, I simply don’t know. You are much more, better qualified, to tell us about that. But the whole stage is so important and so changing. We just a few days ago, we fixed a ship…

Operator

Operator

Thanks a lot sir. And the last question comes from the line of Erik Hovi from Clarksons. Please ask your question.

Erik Hovi

Analyst

Hi guys. Congratulations on a good quarter. So just going into the dividends again based on the guidance of $25,000 for the first quarter, cash earnings implies a dividend of approximately $0.14 to $0.15 per share. So how fascinating you guys think dividend level will come back at the operating cash earnings as it has been historically. Is it a fair assumption to estimate that half would be debt repayments and the other half going to shareholders? Herbjørn Hansson: I will not predict the dividend, but $5,000 a day that $5,000 from out of $20,000, how many percentage is that? 25%. And of course in a stronger market there is more room for dividends. There’s no question about it. And how much? I would like to maximize it, then they get dividend on my stock as well. So I wouldn’t allow Erik, he is from one of the top ship brokers in the world, located many places in the world, in London and Oslo and Far East and all over the place. I wouldn’t tell it, we had in the past when we had almost no debt, people told us, your stock prices too high. And then, we said very clearly we can live with that. But we would like to come back to that day when we had no debt and when we can come back to the very high dividend that we pay the deposit. But I couldn’t promise that, I wouldn’t promise, that this year looks fine and 2020, look fine. Our present what we had – the credit facility elapsed in 2020 about October, I believe, October. And now we don’t have that anymore. So what I should summarize, we had come closer to America because it is an America we belong. Herbjørn Hansson: Let that be my closing statement. And I would like to thank you very much, madam organizer and those who listened to you. And if you got something out of it, I’m pleased. And if you think that a lot of things or stupid things have been said, you should call me and tell me why. That is the only request I have. We are optimistic. Now somebody is calling here. Thank you very much. And we keep in touch. Thank you.