Eugene Isenberg
Analyst · Raymond James
Thanks again, welcome to the fourth quarter conference call. Again, I want to thank everybody for joining and as usual, we have posted to the Nabors website a series of slides that contain details about the performance of the various units or segments of the company. Please refer to these as we speak. The fourth quarter was a significant beat, with earnings per share increasing, this is sort of non-GAAP from $0.29 to $0.44, an increase of approximately 20% over the first call consensus of $0.37. Our most important metric which we always emphasize is operating income, which rose to $222 million from $164 million in the prior quarter, and this also was substantially above consensus. This was due to the strong performance from our North American land operations, better-than-expected performance from our International unit and a full quarter's contribution from our Superior Well Services business unit. The quarter's results for '10 is a significant improvement in 2011. Despite of not only relative, but absolutely anemic gas price, a protractive period of recovery in our International markets, which we obviously will discuss more later, and continued delays in the resumption of normalized activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Financially, we remain in pretty good shape, as we've previously brought back half of the $2.75 billion convertible debt which is due May 15 of this year. We have adequate liquidity to pay off the remaining $1.4 million while still funding a pretty ambitious capital expenditure requirement. And to do this, we used our current and anticipated cash flow on hand, proceeds from the sale of our Colombian E&P properties, mostly oil, as well as the temporary draw on our revolving line of credit. Our safety record remains one of the best in the industry and we continue to emphasize this along with our program to achieve a zero incidence rate, which we continue to strive for make our goal. Looking ahead to 2011, we're optimistic in factors that there are numbers that are in fact, tracking ahead of the book current consensus. And while there is obviously downside to this projection, the medium is projection. I personally believe there is a lot more potential in sizable upside possibilities. Let me first turn to Superior Well Servicing, this is the largest driver of our performance in the fourth quarter. In its first full quarter with Nabors, the units posted approximately $55 million in operating income, despite a seasonally low December. Demand in average pricing in this unit continue to improve and we are, therefore, in light of the pricing returns, we're converting a significant of amount capital to the expansion of our company capacity and to enter into the coiled tubing business, which is pretty ancillary to our existing businesses. When we first acquired Superior, they were operating 12 large spreads. They now are operating 14, and we expect to hit 23 or 24 by the end of the year. Needless to say, we are quite pleased with the contribution this unit has made in such a short time and we believe initially those incremental capital investments will continue to produce outstanding returns. We expect to receive the first increment of increase in petrol pumping spreads in March and increase thereafter approximately one per month. We also have a number of coiled tubing units on order and we'll start receiving those in May or June at the rate of at least about one month for the first six months, and perhaps thereafter. There has been a logical shift in both rigs and Pressure Pumping so this is delayed from our conventional dry gas areas and towards the oil- and liquids-rich plays, as well as to the premium market which is the Marcellus shale. As a result of this, we expect this unit to continually improve in 2011, even as the industry has substantial tracking capacity. Sooner or later, we accept that there will be a better or a rebalancing of supply and demand in this market. In the meantime, two things: We are doing our best to lock up term contracts so that we can sort of mitigate the potential effects of a balancing of supply and demand; and I think the other thing I should mention is, the quality of our crews and their performance and the relative -- the absolute quality of our equipment in terms of the average age is probably a year and a half and it's the right size, its current size is the ideal size. Anyway, let me switch to Nabors Drilling. Operating income in the U.S. operation increased substantially during the quarter, rising to $85,000 compared to $70,000 in the prior quarter. The recount was flat sequentially, but average margins increased by $800 a day. I think the most important thing about this unit is there's a continued demand for new builds, i.e. fit-for-purpose rigs, specifically for various shales, op works and sites [ph] our customers. Last year, we had 29 new builds, including two that may have crossed into January of this year. That includes 26 AC rigs and three major upgrades of SCR rigs, which will economically be equivalent of the new build AC rigs. I think, let me tell you how this evolved from our viewpoint, the new builds approach. We had sort of spec-ed or agreed to approve an AFE for seven new build rigs for the Lower 48. And we had two in construction against prospective demand in Canada. And before we actually got the AFE approved, one of the U.S. rigs was contracted and the U.S. entity contracted one of the two Canadian rigs. And I think there's a super-high probability that we'll have two more of these locked up in the next week or two, and I'm confident that we'll have many more. And what we'll tend to do, our confidence is, relatively speaking, high enough so that we'll continue to keep a backlog until the environment changes, about seven rigs under construction against the contracts we fully expect to get. And I don't expect that number to decrease anytime in the near future. We continue to move, I think, fully with or perhaps even ahead of the trends by moving rigs from the pure dry gas areas to the liquids-rich areas and measure that as that 85% in 2006, 85% in the U.S.A.'s income was from dry gas units. While this year, we expect it to be 68% to be derived from oil and [indiscernible]. Where this has gone, the 85-15 is probably going to be reversed in the next year or so. Anyway, we're right at the crest of that movement. Nabors Well-Servicing, this unit posted a significant increase in operating income during the quarter, $9 million to $12 million. The results primarily are attributable to an increase in hourly rates and strong trucking activity. This unit probably will comfortably more than double its operating income this year versus last. Among the factors involved are; during the quarter we created the acquisition of Energy Contractors [ph], a well-respected, well-servicing fluid family, rig-moving and construction company in the Appalachian basin. This should add significantly to our penetration of the Marcellus shale and this is really the home ground of our Superior well-servicing operation. We intend to augment this business, this Well-Servicing business, with surplus equipment which we're not using at some previously extended operations in Canada and North Dakota, so that should enhance our operations. We also have pretty significant synergies, potential synergies this unit down in Sweezey. We're spending a bunch of money, probably around $75 million, in additional crew handling, frac tanks, trucks, trailers, which will be facilitated by the synergies with Superior. And as I told this morning we did, how many? 40 tanks? Those are two-year contracts? 100 tanks? So it's even possible that these things will be locked up for a two-year contract at decent rates and these things obviously have -- real depreciation is pretty low. I think it's also worth to add [ph] that we have a very profitable operation with a large market position in Canada and we're taking advantage of that by adding a significant number of 400-plus power Millennium Rigs so that the outfit which we expect to show a good payout. Anyway, we also expect to have further price improvement in this area. The fact that the oil price is pretty good, is not an insignificant factor. And the Fluids Management business is booming everywhere, especially for us, we're gaining synergies so we have inter-business units. Nabors International. Our international operations did pretty well in this quarter, $72 million. It's a [indiscernible] from $64 million in the previous quarter. And this was a substantial reduction in downtime and fewer startup delays than anticipated, and this is across multiple rigs. Of lesser significance was the temporary extension of current rigs at current rates, particularly Jackups, which were originally scheduled to renew early. However, while we expect the overall 2011 results to approach those of 2010, the facts are that we're going to have approximately a $90 million reduction in operating income between the first and second quarters, which will result from scheduled dry docking for regulatory upgrades for probably four Jackups and a re-pricing of three of those Jackups to -- they're going to be employed but the current market for Jackups, as you all know, is a bunch lower than when these rigs were signed. And also, we're going to have downtime for six rigs in Saudi which are being converted from oil to gas. These will good longer-term contracts but the upfront price we'll pay in the second quarter. So the flat forecast in the face of this $90 million hit implies that the business is improving fairly dramatically and should continue to do so after early 2011. I mean, specifically we expect the fourth quarter to exit -- the fourth quarter number will be higher in 2011 than 2010. And longer-term, the fact is, that we are probably among the best, certainly the best-positioned land driller and a lot of the international drilling is land to take advantage of the inevitable increase in CapEx associated with a strong demand for crude relative to the longer-term availability of crude. So sooner or later, and probably demonstrably by the end of last year, the potential of this unit compared to the hickies we've been having in the last couple of years, I think will be manifested. Nabors Offshore, this unit is, or continued to be dramatically adversely impacted by the spill and its consequent results. We lost $5 million in the quarter, which was a little bit more than we expected. And the bottom line is that we probably lost $40 million in operating income compared to what it would have been without the spill. And this year, we'll probably lose $20 million of that anyway. Eventually, either the year after, or maybe at the rate sometime next year, we'll make up the $40 million. In addition to that, I think we've been talking in the last couple of quarters about front-end planning and designing and all that stuff we've had for two big major rigs. Now they've converted into contracts. One of the rigs we will sell. So we're talking on the sale and then it will operate for a long period, five or seven years. That's pretty decent operating. The other one we'll own and operate and that'll -- those two things will enhance our longer-term profitability in this unit. Canada. Results in Canada represents a significant increase, $17 million compared to $1 million in the fourth quarter. These results track the ramp up in its traditional ramp up in winter exploration. We should peak in what promises to be a very good first quarter as well. Activity in this market is pretty similar to what's going on in the U.S., where there's a shift from the dry gas in British Colombia to the more oil-, liquid-rich shales east of that. Here again, we have three rigs under construction in drilling, we probably have a couple of rigs under construction, two or three smaller capital rigs in swift over [ph] and the drilling are against full pay at CapEx. And these rigs are probably going to have an opportunity to be contracted for 360 days here, a full year or calendar year, compared to the typical Canadian year. Nabors Alaska Drilling, you've heard this story before, we've come down pretty dramatically. We're going to be -- 2010 was down pretty good from last year and 2011 is going to be down probably 60% from 2010. So we're still doing pretty well there, and let me tell you the reasons for this. We have the best units on the slope in our coiled tubing units and the first on our facility is only probably still the only operating AC rig out there. As you know, we told you in the past, we've lost it to Acura [ph] and while I wish everybody bluffed, their rigs are going way over capital and they're late. And anyway, we have an opportunity which we haven't talked about yet, so fill the gaps if there were issues there. But even more importantly, there is a ton of work to be done on the slope and for Tibias Oil [ph]. And even if you look at the medium this oil -- the stuff that's not the heavy type of stuff but a much more workable and marketable growth. So almost an infinite number of wells to be drilled. And I think the issue there is if the oil companies initiate the program by the tax hit, the state will react to their [indiscernible]. In the meantime, if the state comes to the oil companies and say, "We'd like to induce you to do some more drilling." That deal is going to, in effect, require a three-year standoff before it's resolved. But ultimately, it will be resolved. Also, biggest operator, BP, there's rumors that they're selling it and CapEx is uncertain, and all that stuff. That is going to be resolved in one way or another. So while Alaska -- we got the bad news here and we've had it for a while. But with bearings [ph] the next year, they won't kill us overall next year, the outlook is surprisingly favorable. Our other segments are doing pretty well. Not important, but doing well, including technology from our outfit [ph] and equipment sales which are doing well. Oil and Gas business, as you know, we're selling our Colombian assets and their oil. And what's happened de facto is that we had hoped to sell -- there are two entities, joint venture entity with First Reserved and 100% entity we hope to sell. And one contract for the joint venture and one contract with our own rent-on stuff. And it's going into sections, acres, individual gaps. And so what that means is, while I still think we'll get really the low end, which I said was approximately $400 million, I think it's going to be in blocs. It might even be multiple sales and it might be multiple closings. But I think we'll net-net get that by the end of the first quarter. By the end of the next quarter, excuse me. Our Canadian properties other than Columbia, includes our Canadian gas operations and our 50% interest in NFR. And these are essentially gas-related. And I think we've said before, say again, the crude price at end month was actually below four bucks when I came down here this morning. There's no chance of commercially realizing us either going public or NFR sale of gas, things probably [ph] for this year. But likely, we don't need to do it. We also had in our GAAP results, I point out another impairment in the carrying value of various gas-related holdings. And as you know, those things go down when gas goes down, i.e. the write-off goes up. And if gas prices go up, when they [indiscernible] if they get reversed or non-GAAP those out. And in summary, let me remind you that at the end of last quarter, I was pretty bullish and I said so, and I think that was justified by the fact that our stock price is up, I guess, approximately 50% since the timing of our last presentation. And I remain, I still remain very bullish, because I think there's a lot of value yet to be realized in our open units. And without being redundant, I base this on the increasing strength of our domestic operation with all of its components. And the fact that internationally, we're ideal-suited for the ultimate upturn in international demand, based on the fact that it's oil-based drilling and I think [ph] we are needed. I think that concludes my comments. Denny?