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Noodles & Company (NDLS)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 6, 2013

$11.84

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to today's Noodles & Company Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call. All participants are now in a listen only mode. After the presenters' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I will now introduce Noodles & Company’s Chief Financial Officer, Dave Boennighausen. Please go ahead, sir.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Thank you, Jamie. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter 2013 earnings call. Here with me this afternoon are Kevin Reddy, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Keith Kinsey, President and Chief Operating Officer. Let me start by going over a few regulatory matters. I would like to note that during our opening remarks and responses to your questions, we may make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. Any such items including targeted results for 2013 and 2014 and details relating to our future performance should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are only projections and actual events or results could differ materially from those projections due to a number of risks and uncertainties. I refer you to the documents the Company files from time-to-time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Company's final prospectus for its initial public offering, which was filed on June 28, 2013. This document contains identifies important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. Now, I would like to turn it over to Kevin.

Kevin Reddy

Management

Thanks, Dave. Good afternoon and welcome everyone. I want to begin by saying that I’m please with our Q3 2013 performance, which was highlighted by 45% increased in adjusted income. And more importantly the initiatives that we will discuss on this call are connecting with our guest and generating an excellent start to the fourth quarter positioning us to finish the year strong. Our teams’ commitment are bringing our Your World Kitchen positioning to life in our restaurants continues to resonate with our guest and I remain confident we are creating a completely unique dinning experience that will allow us to continue our long track record of exceptional growth. Our total revenue increased 15% in the third quarter and the strength of new restaurant openings as well as an increase in company-owned comparable sales of 2.4%. The company was able to achieve our sixteenth consecutive quarter of positive comparable restaurant sales growth, which was driven primarily by an increase in traffic and menu mix as we only carried 1% price through the quarter. The underlying consumers spend in frequency. Without new marketing initiatives or limited time offer and less price in Q3 is another indicator of our strong fundamental and guest royalty. I’m particularly please with our earnings growth in Q3, given the investment that occurred in the quarter in support of initiatives for the fourth quarter and beyond as well as the increase in pre-opening cost related to additional new restaurants. Turning to those initiatives, I would next like to discuss our World Tour limited time offering, which has been in our restaurants since early October. One of the key differentiators of Noodles & Company is our ability to serve a world of flavors under one roof by being the only national chain that brings together cuisines from throughout…

Keith Kinsey

Management

Thanks Kevin. Kevin gave you a window into the work we’ve been doing to capitalize on the employee engagement aspect of our operations team. While we fill this initiative we have a particularly impact on the dinner day part, which is roughly 50% of our business. We are also focused on ensuring that we meet to guest needs for a speed service particularly during the lunch rush. Our design is engineered in such a way that we have plenty of capacity and can – continue to execute major order meals in a shelved amount of time at a very high level. That said, we are always looking for areas of improvement. Some of those areas we’re particularly focused in on right now are optimizing the deployment of our labor during our heaviest hours, ensuring that we have the right number of registers opened at all times and looking at different preparation methodologies to reduce the number of stations that a certain Item must reach during production. The early results of these initiatives are encouraging. In quarter three along we set nearly 200 different throughput records at our restaurants for numbers all orders executed during 15 minute revenue periods. As we continue to improve our operational efficiencies we are also leveraging our online in mobile ordering platform that was launched earlier this year. Aside from increasing the flexibility for our guest, online and mobile ordering reduces the wait time at the restaurant. Eliminates many of the time consuming phone in orders and when necessary allows us to shift some of our business to times just prior to or after the main rush of revenue period. The amount of orders we are receiving through online and mobile platforms has almost doubled over the past year and we expect it to continue to…

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Thanks Keith. For the third quarter of 2013, we reported adjusted net income of $3.3 million a 45% increase over adjusted net income in the third quarter of 2012. This equates to diluted earnings per share of $0.11 for the fiscal year-to-date adjusted net income stands at $8.6 million at 21% increase. While there were no adjustments to reported net income for the third quarter, both year-to-date as well as prior year figures incorporated adjustments related to normalizing expenses and changes in our capital structure related to the initial public offering this June. Our total revenue was up 15.4% in the third quarter as we saw an increase in company-owned sales and franchise revenue due to a larger number of restaurants as well as increasing comparable restaurants sales. Our comparable restaurants sales were up 2.1% system-wide in the second quarter which company-owned restaurants up 2.4% and franchise restaurants up 0.5% respectively. Our company-owned quarterly comp contained only 1% of price as Kevin mentioned, with the balance being driven almost equally by traffic and menu mix shift related to our appetizers and the introduction of our higher price gluten-free noodle option. We feel our continued positive menu mix shift is a testament to our overall value proposition in pricing flexibility. The price increase that was rolled out at the beginning of the fourth quarter was around 1.5% to 2%, as a point of reference in December we began to lap last year’s price increase from the roll out of internal merchandising. This is a phase rollout, so our effective pricing will roll off overtime barring any unexpected changes though, you can anticipate price of approximately 2.5% for the fourth quarter and gradually declining to that 1.5% to 2% range from this current price increase as we enter the second quarter of…

Kevin Reddy

Management

While we’ve covered a lot of numbers in commentary over the last 20 minutes or so together and I would like to just emphasize a few important thoughts before we go to the Q&A. First our third quarter results were led by an exceptional 45% EPS growth and our comparable sales were quality driven and gaining momentum. And our real estate pipeline is robust and then our limited time offers continue to be relevant to our guests and deliver inside the box. Our guest, our royal and brand awareness is growing everyday. And may be most importantly for the future we have the people, operational and coronary initiatives to support long runways of growth. So thanks for your time today. And I would now like Jamie to open up the lines to answer any questions that you may have.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). The first question comes from John Glass from Morgan Stanley. John Glass – Morgan Stanley: Thanks very much. I got some sample questions in your comp store sales momentum. First you implied guidance in the fourth quarter implies a pick up, are you seeing that in the traffic part of the business as well as the price increase which would lead to better comps and then, kind of could you talk a little bit about the success of the LTO, you talked about being most successful series of LTOs you brought in with your comp store sales where than they had been in prior quarter, part of that was macro, part of that maybe is comparisons, but how do you think about the success and the context to driving comps, did you drive incremental traffic in your mind, did you drive just existing us to trade out for example?

Kevin Reddy

Management

Let me, I’ll just take the second part of that first and then let Dave address the first part John. Actually our limited time offer started in Q4, so it wasn’t in place in Q3 which is why one of the reasons I feel good about the quality of our same-store sales growth in Q3, because it was primarily driven buy our guests choosing to spend more and participate more within the brand. So I like that because really when you look at Q3, it started out if you guys remember looking at Black Box and Navtrak, those facts show the industry start to ring out slower and as I mentioned in my remarks we didn’t have a new LTO in the third quarter, we actually dropped off about 70 basis points of price and at the end of the quarter we had that flooding in Colorado and we have a substantial amount of restaurants here. So in the context of that, I’m pleased that we continue to grow real transaction count and frequency in the core part of our business, and when we switch to the fourth quarter which is when we began the LTO, we definitely saw a pickup in spend and traffic which is what has given us the confidence John of what we are seeing happening in Q4.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

And John in relation to the increase that we’ve seen a momentum from Q3 to Q4, really we are seeing across the board and price menu mix as well as in traffic, certainly the 1.75% price is a significant portion of that but we are actually seeing all three of those moving in the right direction. John Glass – Morgan Stanley: Okay and just one other question, you talked about the store openings sort of back loaded in the quarter, but how did they perform a sales perspectives you know you confirm to maybe your plan and maybe any highlights in terms of specific new market entries in those openings.

Keith Kinsey

Management

Yes, and so this is Keith, from a standpoint of some of the openings that ended up at the end of the quarter and it’s a little early, we are seeing some good momentum, we opened up our first restaurant in Houston at the Woodlands and its doing very nicely above our expectation. So we are starting to see some of that traction from those later opening restaurants, but in looking at those it’s a little bit early just to tell as far as where they are going to come up by the end of the year.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

And I wish maybe – this is Dave, add one quick thing to that. Yes those restaurants it is definitely a little bit early but they are meeting where our projections are. As we look at 2011 and 2012 classes which as we discussed in the past we have a little bit more of a skew towards more markets in those classes, they tend to be closer to that 85% to 90% of our company average. Well we are seeing some nice momentum as they are kind of continuing and ramping up on that glide path. We think the LTO also is a nice opportunity and we have seen some nice upticks since we introduced the LTO in those newer classes.

Kevin Reddy

Management

This is Kevin. Just to add to that we travel and visit a lot of these restaurants. And what and I’m pleased with is that what we want the guests to connect with within the brand voice, global flavors, the variety, everything being a slightly little nicer than other fast casual places. I’m pleased with what we are seeing and hearing from the guests in our new restaurants, other things that are important to our future, because they are getting it. John Glass – Morgan Stanley: Sorry. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Joe Buckley from bank of America. Joseph Buckley – Bank of America: Thank you. Carried on a couple of things that you’ve talk about, first you raised in Colorado and as your strength on sales, can you quantify that in any way whether actual store closures involved for any period of time?

Kevin Reddy

Management

Yes we did have a handful days of closure Joe and it is roughly 10 to 20 basis points in terms of the comp. Joseph Buckley – Bank of America: Okay. And then question on the marketing both for the third quarter and the fourth quarter with the lack of a new LTO in the third quarter was marketing spend down and is market spend up here in the fourth quarter as cant get that well to LTO?

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Sure so you’ll see and other is to kind of filer though that press release, but in general the restaurant marketing costs we have that hit the restaurants are roughly about 1% of sales on total average. As we look at Q3 versus Q4, I think Q3 was close to that 80 basis points, 90 basis points range, but there will be a little bit of an uptick in Q4, but so much of our marketing is at the local relationship level ends up actually hitting the discount line through COGS. You are not going to see a very meaningful uptick there.

Keith Kinsey

Management

No Joe this is Keith and I do think to kind of dub tail with what Dave says getting and what Kevin has seen and we’ve all seen in the new restaurants is really getting the food off to the guests is really our strength in getting the Alfredo and Hot Pot out there in different opportunities to get that food in front of our guests, is really the way we drive it. And particularly with LTOs we really think that’s a strong way to get people to understand the breath of our taste inside of our restaurants. Joseph Buckley – Bank of America: Okay thank you.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Thanks Joe.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Lasser from UBS. Michael Lasser – UBS: Good evening and thanks for taking my question. First on the cadence of the quarter, there is a lot of macro distraction, maybe you could talk a little bit more about how you started to flow and whether or not you felt like some of the issues in a border economy might have impacted the business as well?

Dave Boennighausen

Management

You know I don’t – I think Mike I know you a lot of days you know as well. We don’t really go spend a whole lot of time on macro environment. But yes maybe clearly we’ll step it and there is a lot going on that are on a lot of people’s minds. But that’s okay. I mean what we saw momentum building and I think that one of the strengths of the brand and one of the believes of management our team is that we have the right strategy, the right food and if we execute at the restaurant level, our guests are loyal. Then they stay with us because of that combination of food, people, place and value. And so that was building and when we focus on that and deliver our own slightly unreasonable expectations, we win. And we were seeing that grow through the third quarter and certainly into the beginning of the fourth-quarter Michael Lasser – UBS: Okay and my other question is this year you have had a lot of various test under you about what the dinning room construct, the menu with time offers. What have you learned that could influence any changes that might – the customer might see and that we might see within your financials over the next year or two? Thank you.

Kevin Reddy

Management

You know I think, a lot of the focus we have is just improving the guest experience. Our limited time offers are really focused on building a broader message about the brand. They are focused on the world flavors in a variety and choice that we put in the guest hand, so I think the limited time offers combined with a new merchandising are really changing how people think about us in a very positive way. And those investments really have already been done so I don’t really any – we can continue to do that, its in our core DNA, you are going to see much financial impact on the expense side of those, but I do expect you will continue to see us build top line sales. As the one where we require some investment is that all of our initiatives on the dinner day part and that is one I think is very unique within the restaurants space and its one of the strengths that we believe we can capitalize on in terms of an opportunity in building the dinner day part. That one requires training, we added few menu items, its really great cost of entry for what we are doing, but I think you will see us – you want see massive impact on the company just because of how disciplined we are and measured in rolling us things out, but I think overtime that one is going to pay huge dividends just because of our ability to steal market share from casual dinning.

Keith Kinsey

Management

And I think piece to Kevin has talk about is, is from an operational perspective I think as we think about how we use our teams, how we deploy our labor and with the success of the rollout of some of the merchandising within the restaurant it allows us to better talk to our guest and educate the guest in the breath of our menu, it also helps us operation as we talked a little bit about this last time is how it helps us execute better, gets a flow through the ordering process easier. Getting the guest to understand the breath and ability that we do just from our same system in customized dishes and I think that’s another piece as we continue to educate both side both the team and our guest is going to very powerful for us in the future. Michael Lasser – UBS: Okay thank you very much for the color.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays. Jeffrey Bernstein – Barclays Capital: Great thank you very much. A couple of question just one on the throughput you talked about obviously with neat order of type product and what seems to be demand high. Throughput would seem like bottleneck with the biggest opportunity. I’m just wondering I think you mentioned some records in terms of 15 period of whatnot wondering any color you can provide in terms of one, how you just measure you throughout and maybe some ranges of fast versus slow and where you think the opportunity to improve whether it be like you said that dinning room team member or something else to allow for faster speeder service and obviously more customers through the line.

Keith Kinsey

Management

Great question, great question. There two elements that we can mathematically do it and we do on the system and the operations team looks at it very diligently, one we look at order time so the time that the person comes up and register and we go through the process of getting that individual’s order down. The second piece that we track and that’s anywhere – we target between 25 and 35 seconds on that and I wouldn’t tell you that with the new menu boards the pre-boards that has really helped to speed that process up because people come up and they know what they want, they know the combinations they can deal with that and they can easily articulate that to our guest, to our ambassador and they can bring that up. The second thing is that we focus the time on, and it literally helps from a standpoint of being and we think that detail order of that fast and then our systems are set up to rifle back to the back of the restaurant at different stations, different ingredients that need to come together to be able to put that dish together. And we track that time that is kind of preparation time or food time that we take the dish out. That is any wherever from 4.5minutes to 5.5 minutes, but typically more in that five range and it gives that dish up to the guests and that the commented that Kevin made in about 5.5 minutes. But what we’ve done with that system again going back to is, each one of our different areas in the back of the restaurant are set up as stations. So what you do is, one piece might fire over for the sandwich over to our protein section. If we are doing a noodle dish and might fire over to the noodle station, on South Carolina might over to the Sauté line. We have what we call the severable [ph] that helps us break down the dish and customize. So all those elements are built not only from a standpoint of people and position and deployment, but also from the systems really the IT systems that the teams have put together. So what has been part of our focus is making the complex easy and execute that at the restaurant level. Jeffrey Bernstein – Barclays Capital: Got it. And just on the…

Keith Kinsey

Management

The other thing I would add, because I think it’s an insightful question is that, the efforts that we’re putting in there are really making a successful capable system better. At lunch time, focusing on throughput and making sure the human element is in place, the system is well engineered to deliver as Keith said the complex, simple and fast. The evening day part, I guess are going to linger a little bit longer then they opt into little broader range of offerings and a little higher average tax. So but I’m really pleased with how the teams are responding and focusing on capitalizing on those opportunities. Jeffrey Bernstein – Barclays Capital: Great and then just from the real estate pipeline perspective, it sounds like we should expect an uptick in terms of opening. I’m just wondering what you are seeing in terms of the availability of real estate or competition whether it’s getting more or less intense, whether you are seeing increased real estate construction costs. So other things are well managed, the things that get fairly happy with the pipeline, just wondering some color there?

Keith Kinsey

Management

Yes and a great question again. What you are definitely seeing is a lot of the two or three tenant types of buildings that are going up. The nice thing about the that they are in a lot of the already existing trade areas that have been developed already, so you’re not going into green part of the city or skirt of a suburb. There’s definitely competition looking for that there’s still some of the 2,500 square foot operators out there that are looking at and looking for that kind of space. But in general though if you look at some of our most significant competitors, they are already in the lot of these places, or there might be something like them already in a place that we are looking at. Because we have such a unique variety of foods, there’s not a lot of people that can exclude us. So there is a lot more opportunities for us to go into established trade areas where there is a multitude of fast casuals there, but not a casual diner, a fast casuals like us. Overall we are very high because of the strength of our balance sheet to go into some of these two and three tenant type of buildings cross the country. So and there is a little bit of inflation there, but I think it’s by different areas of geography depending on what has developed and again the strength of the real estate market there are the construction market, but not a big number. Jeffrey Bernstein – Barclays Capital: Got it and just lastly Dave if I could just qualify what you mentioned in terms of 2014 guidance. I think if I got it correctly, I mean, it sounds like revenues you are thinking up mid teens driven by the unit growth primarily. But on the cost side of things if food costs are in the mid-26s and I think you said the rest of the restaurant level expenses are consistent with 2013, I’m assuming that was as a percentage of sales, we should think about the restaurant margins being modest compression driven maybe just by the food component, but then the G&A leverage, growing less than sales should be – really make up some of the difference to our earnings growth.

Kevin Reddy

Management

Yes, we would expect that as the new restaurants mature, you know is a pretty consistent margins overall across the board maybe a little bit of leverage there and then we should be able to get significant leverage on the balance of the items and throughout the statement of operations. Jeffrey Bernstein – Barclays Capital: Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). The next question comes from David Tarantino from Robert W. Baird. David Tarantino – Robert W. Baird: Hi, good afternoon. I have a question about the 2013 guidance; you raised the comps guidance, but held the earnings guidance, so I was wondering Dave if you could tell us what maybe some of the offsets are that might not let the increased comps flow through to the earnings line?

Dave Boennighausen

Management

A couple of things David, and one would be a little bit of the decrease in that revenue, based on its primarily the timing of new restaurant opening s and the second thing would be that COGS number going a little bit up. David Tarantino – Robert W. Baird: Okay. Great that’s helpful and then I guess on the new unit performance I think Dave you mentioned that you are opening or at least that line includes a lot more openings in some developing markets and I was wondering if you can maybe map out how you expect that to work as you look at next years opening. So you are expecting more on developed markets or as its going to be a continuing pattern of new markets dominating the mix.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

So yes, in general just I mean somewhat level set. Our new market they always end up getting to maturity, but they do have a bit more volatility and I think most growth concepts when they have been our last cycle had the same phenomenon. When we look at 2011 and 2012 and a little bit in 2013, but not nearly as much, there was a skew where we actually had a higher percentage of our market that we are in developing a new – I’m sorry new restaurants. So we are in developing our new markets, but when you look at the 2014 pipeline that one is going to be dominated more by the mature markets as well as kind of the filling of some of the new markets that we introduced in 2011 and 2012, so there is definitely a little bit less volatility that we would expect from the 2014 class. David Tarantino – Robert W. Baird: Great. That’s helpful, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Nick Setyan from Wedbush Securities. Nick Setyan – Wedbush Securities: Hi, thank you. I want to just horn a little bit more on the leverage within the four walls. So holding the cost itself constant with the comps in the sort of low single-digit given the past you have done a good job of keeping some of the other cost items there, but pretty consistent year-to-year. So I just wanted to kind of understand what is unique about Noodles & Company that you are able to – I mean with some of your competitors aren’t able to do that they do have accounts to do that and I always think the occupancy on the restaurant operating cost is more variable than fixed. So maybe you can talk about sort of what some of those moving parts are that you are able to keep those expenses on line, even with low-single digit type of comps.

Keith Kinsey

Management

To me there is a couple of piece, this is Keith and I’ll talk about our ability to effectively leverage labor and utilize that deployment, because I think we have a very sophisticated labor scheduling process that allows us to make sure we add people when we need to add them and deploy them on as volumes grow. But only add them to the extent that we need them as the sales and during the certain date parts when we get. We get those different pushes on sales. Same thing on the costs I think as we look at some of the dishes and as we try to maximize the type of limited time offers that we have in our system. We’re very, very thoughtful as to what that cost might be and also from the standpoint of execution within the restaurants which keeps your waste down and some of the other elements down that we think about that when we roll those different types of LTOs. Go ahead Kevin.

Kevin Reddy

Management

Well I’m just going to jump in and add something in. We have a lot of experienced excellent operators. And over the years together, we’ve learned what’s important, we have the data to understand it quickly and we react quickly. So I think having a good finger pulse on your business throughout that entire P&L than being able to quickly communicate through our operating infrastructure and help coach folks that may need help and to anticipate that is a big reason, while our P&L numbers and other restaurant contributions are so strong that our AUVs. And again it’s short I think we know it’s supporting we have the data to get to it. We study it and we will add to it as operator should.

Keith Kinsey

Management

One other thing I would just add I think also Kevin is when you look at the whole new restaurant the cadence of our new restaurant timing, doesn’t have an influence overall in our margins. Those restaurants tend to be a little bit lower in margin out of the gate and then they continue to grow margin as they mature. If you look at the last 12 months from the beginning of Q4 of last year, to the end of Q3 of this year, we opened up 49 restaurants and that’s, we had a lot of restaurants opened in Q4 of last year, Q3 of this year. So what you see is kind of as those restaurants mature there will be a little bit of influence on the overall margin in a favorable line, as they hit that glide path. Nick Setyan – Wedbush Securities: Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Paul Westra from Stifel.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi this is Chris signing in for Paul Westra. Can you hear me?

Kevin Reddy

Management

Yes Paul.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay thanks. I just wanted to follow-up on one more quick question about the unit development which for correcting and implying 40 or less next year, a little bit for this year. Is that a function of a strong, with your real estate backlog being strong is that a function of delays in the sites you are seeing already, or just being a little bit more conservative?

Kevin Reddy

Management

Yes actually, we might have miss spelt that. It should be 13% to 15% unit growth rate on the company side which should equate to a kind of mid 40s number.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Right.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay great. That actually helps, I’m cleared up. And then it just one more quick one, on the enhanced service model, which you mention now and in 15% of the stores, can you provide any commentary and what you are seeing in terms of results there, is it dinner only thing, just any, really any further clarity you can find there?

Kevin Reddy

Management

I think, still early, but I think what’s very encouraging is but we’re seeing increase in sales across our day parts, across all dates and all day parts. So it something that is resonating with the guest just in terms of the overall just brand perception. So yes we are seeing a little bit more growth at the dinner side, we do see a larger percentage of those items being sold at the dinner day part, but we are seeing all day parts go up and I think what’s also encouraging as we are seeing a lot of those sales in the mid and that timeframe between two and five.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay great. Thanks.

Kevin Reddy

Management

Thanks Paul.

Operator

Operator

I am showing no further question. I would now like to turn the call back over to the management team for closing remarks.

Kevin Reddy

Management

I think we covered everything. I really appreciate your time and attention and listening to our Q3 or excited how we started Q4 in ready to get – get back to work. So wish you everyone the best we will talk to you soon. Bye, bye.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference for today. Again, thank you for your participation. You may all disconnect. Have a good day.