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Newmont Corporation (NEM)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 24, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Goldcorp Inc. 2013 Third Quarter Results Conference Call for Thursday, October 24, 2013. Please be advised this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Jeff Wilhoit, Vice President, Investor Relations of Goldcorp. Please go ahead.

Jeff Wilhoit

President

Thank you and welcome everyone to the Goldcorp third quarter conference call. Among the senior management in the room with me today are Chuck Jeannes, President and Chief Executive Officer; Lindsay Hall, Chief Financial Officer; George Burns, Chief Operating Officer; and Russell Ball, Executive Vice President, Capital Management. For those of you participating on the webcast we’ve included a number of slides to support this morning’s discussion. These slides are available on our website at www.goldcorp.com. As a reminder we will be discussing forward-looking information that involves unique risks concerning the business, operations, and financial performance and condition of Goldcorp. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to future metal prices, the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, and cost and timing of the development of new deposits. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Accordingly you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. With that, I will now turn the call over to Chuck Jeannes, President and Chief Executive Officer.

Charles Jeannes

Management

Thanks Jeff and thanks everyone for joining us today. I am pleased that we were able to report solid third quarter results for Goldcorp this morning with gold production on track with our original guidance for the year. More importantly nearly every mine delivered decrease in costs quarter-over-quarter as our productivity and cost reduction programs continued to take hold throughout the organization. For the quarter gold production totaled 637,100 ounces, while all-in sustaining costs decreased to $992 per ounce. This contributed to adjusted net earnings for the quarter of $190 million or $0.23 per share, while adjusted operating cash flow totaled $375 million or $0.46 per share. As we’ve discussed previously grades and production at Peñasquito increased in the third quarter as we expected and we also saw improved recoveries and throughput in the quarter. We are positioned for a strong fourth quarter at Peñasquito as mining has moved into a higher grade portion of the pit. Water availability was as expected and the team has continued to advance the Northern Well Field project to help meet our longer term water needs at Peñasquito. Looking ahead production remains on track to meet 2013 guidance with continued cost reduction a key priority for the balance of the year and beyond. Porcupine in Ontario is a mine that deserves special mention for their recent and dramatic success in reducing costs. As most of you are aware the porcupine complex is one of Goldcorp’s higher cost operations and they have responded to our operating for Operating for Excellence or ore for – challenge with initiatives designed to position the mine for free cash flow on a sustained basis. These types of porphyry stories about throughout the organization and we look forward to seeing that momentum building and manifesting itself directly in our financial…

George Burns

Chief Operating Officer

Thanks Chuck. Gold in the third quarter was largely as expected across the mine portfolio while all-in sustaining cost decreased at 9 of the 11 operations compared to the second quarter. We continue to see wins from our Operating for Excellence program that translated into direct cost reductions in the third quarter. Turning to the operations and beginning with Peñasquito, third quarter gold production totaled a 113,900 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $830 per ounce. Mill throughput in the quarter averaged approximately a 109,900 tons per day with water availability in line with our expectations. We continue to make progress in our efforts to secure the water requirements for Penasquito. Northern Well Field land access agreements continue to be completed throughout the quarter and we are finalizing the pipeline routing. Final engineering designs are essentially complete. Construction activities are expected to commence during the fourth quarter of this year. Production at Porcupine for the quarter totaled 76,000 ounces at all-in sustaining cost of $920 per ounce, the lowest cost at Porcupine since the fourth quarter of 2011. Increased production over the second quarter of this year was a result of optimization of long-hole sequencing at the Hoyle Pond to remove marginal production, higher grades at the Dome Underground and higher tonnage from stockpile. At Hollinger project the environmental compliance approval for Hollinger is expected to be issued by the Ontario Minister of Environment before year-end. A new optimized mine plan has been developed to support a much stronger economic project at lower gold prices and accomplishes reclamation of historic mining activities. At Red Lake, gold production totaled 97,000 ounces at all-in sustaining cost of $986 per ounce. Production decreased as compared to the second quarter as mining took place in the lower grade blocks in the 41 and…

Russell Ball

Management

Thanks, George and good day everyone. Turning to slide 14, you can see we made significant progress in Cerro Negro in Argentina despite a challenging external environment. As I mentioned on the second quarter call we made a conscious decision not to change schedule at any cost and that has resulted in our revised schedule and capital cost information. We now expect to produce first gold in mid-2014 with commercial production expected in the fourth quarter of 2014 and gold production for the year 2014 between 130,000 and 180,000 ounces. Our revised capital cost estimate is expected to be between 1.6 billion and 1.8 billion, up from the previous 1.35 billion. At the end of the third quarter we had spent approximately $933 million so we have about another $800 million to be spent in the fourth quarter of this year and next year through commercial production. At the process plant the EPCM scope is approximately 66% complete with engineering in excess of 96%. The ore stockpile at quarter end was approximately 157,500 tons at an average grade of 12.4 grams gold and 253 grams per ton silver. Due to the delay in plant startup we expect the stockpile to be approaching 450,000 tons by the middle of 214 increasing to approximately 550,000 tons by the time we expect to reach commercial production. Consequently and in order to be disciplined with our capital we have temporarily suspended development at Mariana Norte. As previously discussed due to recently enacted resource tax in Santacruz province all exploration activities were suspended in the third quarter. Cerro Negro remains one of our highest exploration priorities and we look forward to resumption of exploration activities following resolution of the resource tax issue. Slide 15 provides more detail on our revised schedule and updated capital cost…

Lindsay Hall

Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Russell. We sold over 652,000 ounces of gold at an average realized price per ounce of $1,339 versus 624,000 in the second quarter at an average realized price of $1,358. By product cash cost also improved to $551 per gold ounce compared to the prior quarter of 646 primarily due to higher byproduct credits and higher sales volume for gold as well as a 2% decrease in production cost as the company continues to focus on implementing cost savings and productivity gains as part of its Operating for Excellence initiatives across the organization. On the co-product basis cash cost decreased to $706 per ounce in Q3 compared to $713 in the prior quarter. The increase in sales volume and reduction in production cost resulted in an increase to our earnings from mine operations of some $68 million from the prior quarter. As well our Q3 all-in sustaining cost decreased to $992 and remained in line with our narrowed 2013 guidance range between the $1,050 and $1,100 per ounce. This decrease as compared to our Q2 cost of $1,279 is primarily a result of company’s management of the sustaining capital program to maximize returns on capital employed. The details of this calculation are disclosed on page 38 of our MD&A. Net earnings for the third quarter amounted to $5 million or $0.01 per share compared to a net loss of $1,934 million per share of 238 in the prior quarter. The third quarter results were impacted negatively by the cumulative tax adjustments arising from the amendments for the Pueblo Viejo Special Lease Agreement or SLA which was ratified just prior to the close of the quarter. The cumulative negative impact which is included in the share of net losses and associates line of the GAAP statement amounted to $187 million…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our first question is from Andrew Quail from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Andrew Quail – Goldmand Sachs: Hi, guys congratulations on a good quarter and thanks for the update. My question is on Peñasquito, I got two, one is good guide and obviously as per the mine year plan do you see that continuing for the next sort of few quarters and even sort of into 2015 or is it going to go higher? Can you give some guidance on that?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Sure. We are moving in phase four in a better grade throughout the year and that’s why the production profile is ramping up and we continue to look for a really strong fourth quarter at Penasquito. In terms of looking at the five year plan, yes our pushback sequences are looking to be in better grade material for the next five years so we are looking for a strong continuation of production improvements at Penasquito. Andrew Quail – Goldmand Sachs: And second question just on the Well Field obviously starting construction in Q4 this year, when do you guys see that being completed?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Yeah we are projecting it to be completed fourth quarter of 2014. Andrew Quail – Goldmand Sachs: Yeah, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you.

Charles Jeannes

Management

Thanks, Andrew.

Operator

Operator

The following question is from David Haughton from BMO Capital Markets, please go ahead. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: Hi yes, thank you Chuck and guys. You have got [inaudible] by the sounds of it. Just back to the Penasquito we had seen some time ago a detail on the grade profile and it had been anticipated to get into much better grade but we have to change really to the rate at which material has been moved because you have not been able to run at full capacity. We have been at some stage expecting to get out to the 0.7 grams level around 2015. Is that still the way that you are looking at things?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Yeah, we are working on our new budget for next year and five year plan but more comfortable with the strong increase in grade and therefore production profile will happen. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: Okay, but that kind of grade that we were provided with sometime ago is still something that we should be thinking about that, that’s a realistic target for you?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Yes. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: And it’s good to see the throughput getting up by round about 110,000 tons a day level. Now I presume that you have got access to additional water, there has been floods and rains et cetera in there on a seasonal impact. Is that pretty much what’s driving this or are you just finding better ways to work with what you have got?

George Burns

Chief Operating Officer

So we have been expanding the current Well Field that we have been running the plant on since startup and that’s enabled us to meet our roughly 110,000 ton a day guidance that we have given. The Northern Well Field once constructed will add on top of that water enable, and sustained capability of ramping up production further. So the rain obviously was a good thing but it really didn’t have a direct impact on the quarter or next quarter. It’s really expanding, existing infrastructure about 50 watering in existing Well Field that’s enabled us to run these sort of production numbers. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: So George would you feel comfortable with the 110 to 115 thousand tons a day through balance of the year and into 2014 or is that too high in your mind?

George Burns

Chief Operating Officer

No, that’s consistent with our belief. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: Okay, now slipping back if I may to Cerro Negro. The production numbers that were provided in the guidance and also in Russell’s talk was 130 to 180 thousand ounces for 2014, is that inclusive of pre-commercial material or would you consider that commercial material?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Yeah that includes preproduction. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: Okay, so if we would just take a half that number size as you guess would that be a reasonable way of thinking what you could get for commercial production?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Yeah, at this stage, David I think that’s within any error of any estimate. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: Alright, and also noticed slower spend at Cerro Negro you’ve said you’ve been slowing down some of your development, you’re pulling back on your exploration et cetera but we still got a target of the CapEx at 2.6 built for 2013 had that 2.6 been adjusted for those kinds of slippages if you like into 2014 out of ‘13?

George Burns

Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, I think the 2.6 number had the 745 in there and we will be slightly below that but in the neighborhood I’d say somewhere around the 720 is my expectation for the year and those cost are then obviously when we don’t spent this year will roll into next year. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: Okay, so quite a big spend really for the fourth quarter?

George Burns

Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, and we are seeing that for the last couple of months we have seen spending jump from the roughly 40 to 50 range to those 70 to 80 range. So we are seeing the spend and consequently we are seeing the progress on the ground and you saw some of that in the quarter. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: Okay. I guess second about the pressure that you have had on the capital cost saving completely understandable given the circumstances. We haven’t really had an update on the operating cost guidance for some time, are you in a position where you can give us an indication where that might be heading at Cerro Negro?

George Burns

Chief Operating Officer

David, we are in the process. The ore body as you know is one that is extremely robust. The exchange rate is obviously a challenge or the exchange rate is a challenge with the disconnect with the inflation rate and so we are working that through. Our assumptions going in are on the operating cost are going to be similar to what you have seen on the capital six to one exchange rate and that 20% to 25% to 30% exchange rate. So we don’t have those numbers we are looking at opportunities and we will get those to you in really in the first quarter it’s just too early with the construction schedule moving we have had to go and essentially go back to a zero base budget and so a lot of work going on the ground.

Charles Jeannes

Management

Yeah, David if I can just add to that we have talked about this before but it’s certainly our expectation and I think the expectation of a lot of commentators and those who spend time looking at Argentina that there will be continued devaluation potentially as soon as following the elections coming up and it’s just next week. So we look at that as a very significant moving part that hopefully we have more clarity on as we get into next year and get closer to production and that will be very important in terms of our expectations on operating cost. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: All right, I just haven’t quite got over Cerro Negro but if you could let me have another question on this one. Having looked at your stockpile build up you have got some quite a lot of material there already some good grade, how did those grades compare to your book model, have you had an opportunity to test what’s coming out compared to what you would have predicted?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Yeah, David, good question. Obviously not a huge amount of material but what we have seen today has been positive and no indication that, that trend won’t continue. And we are stockpiling the material as you would expect and quite frankly my longer term concern is that the mill may accelerate throughput and we will have the ramp up at the mine which is a great problem to have but the mine is doing an outstanding job. We are seeing what we expected to see and it’s not exactly what we had in our budget as far as what we are moving but while we are moving versus the block model is slightly positive. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: Okay, and last question might also be in your area too Russell is Alumbrera so you have had a win there from the permitting side of things. What does that mean now, where does it stand in your pipeline and how it’s compared to other projects that you have got, have you have a chance to think about it little bit?

Russell Ball

Management

Yeah, David, maybe I will take that one, first I just want to say that we are very pleased to have been able to get through the RCA reinstatement process, lot of hard work, lot of people on our team down in Chile. Having said that we now find ourselves with a feasibility study that’s quite stale in terms of capital and operating cost estimates that we need to get back to the drawing board and update that feasibility study and the problem that we have with respect to a lack of power supply solution still remains and so we’ll be working on that and as we learn more and have the better sense as things going forward there we will let you know. David Haughton – BMO Capital Markets: Okay. Thank you very much and good luck.

Charles Jeannes

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our following question is from Tony Lesiak from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead. Tony Lesiak – Canaccord Genuity: Good afternoon. I was hoping you could speak to the optimized mine plan of Hollinger, timing, production levels cost?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Sure. Well, timing wise we’re expecting probably in the quarter it will get started. Meanwhile we’re drilling to better understanding of ore body and to get set up for mining. It is more robust and it’s smaller production is going to be a bit less than half a million ounces total, the mine life looks to be about five years, about 10 million tonnes or little less than 1.5 gram per tonne and we’ll get a good return on investment on this one that will support, lower operating cost that we’re attacking with their old reprogram.

George Burns

Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, Tony if I can just add down, Hollinger is one of those that I think is a good example, what we all need to do in lower gold price environment. We’ve looked at this compared to the original feasibility plan and gone back in and made a smaller and much higher return and lower cost. So we’re not moving as many tonnes, we’re many not making as many ounces but we’re making better returns on our investment and that’s the kind of thing that we’re trying to do around the organization and it’s a good example of it. Tony Lesiak – Canaccord Genuity: And how would that fit with the Porcupine camp in terms of incremental production lift?

Charles Jeannes

Management

So bringing Hollinger on allows us to be less reliant on the low grade stock piles that enable us to keep that mill built. So it’s basically going to offset some of the low grade stockpile production with a bit better grade coming in at Hollinger and therefore helping our operating costs. Tony Lesiak – Canaccord Genuity: So in terms of just looking at the Porcupine cost structure you’d expect further benefits to what you achieved this most recent quarter as Hollinger comes on board?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Yeah, Hollinger’s going to be than the stockpile material we’ve been processing, so yes. Tony Lesiak – Canaccord Genuity: Okay. And then just the final question for you George looking at Penasquito unit cost what’s your goal post optimization?

George Burns

Chief Operating Officer

That’s the tough one, you put a target of there that stretches everybody and I guess what I can tell you is we’re focused on benchmarking against the big mines across the Americas and we see significant opportunity in Penasquito to get those unit cost per tonne down and I can tell you we’ve got a lot of big opportunities teed up and our team focused on. So I don’t want to give you any numbers but I can tell you it’s significant improvement. Tony Lesiak – Canaccord Genuity: Okay. thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from Adam Graf from Cowen. Please go ahead. Adam Graf – Cowen & Co.: Thank you. Congratulations on the quarter. Guys, I was hoping that you guys could talk a bit about the proposed tax royalty legislation in Mexico and how that would potentially impact your operations and effective tax rates?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Thanks Adam. Certainly we’re not happy about the tax proposal that has been made in Mexico. It’s significantly higher than what had been discussed over the last years. So this issue has been on the table in our discussions with government. We think that it’s not well thought out frankly by the government in it would take Mexico from being one of our more competitive jurisdictions from a tax standpoint to being one of our highest tax jurisdictions and necessarily that will hurt foreign investment, or investment period in the mining industry and we got things got in front of us that are very significant like Comino Rojo and Deep Penasquito multi billions of dollars of potential investments in the future that will just have that much higher hurdle rate if this tax goes through as proposed. So certainly those are the kinds of the discussions we are having with government and we hope that they listen. I am not able to give you any specific numbers because there is a lot of moving parts but clearly the additional tax of 7.5% on EBITDA and you can figure that up directly from our financial statements would be an increase, pretty significant increase in the tax stake in Mexico but it’s not going to materially impact our existing assets. What it does, as I said changes that hurdle rate for new investments and it will likely drive our capital elsewhere, if we don’t get the returns we are looking for in Mexico we’ll put it somewhere else. Adam Graf – Cowen & Co.: And just a quick follow up regarding that the current taxes you guys are paying at Penasquito are these still the 17% minimum tax or have you guys moved up to the 30% corporate tax rate and if you haven’t moved up yet what’s the estimated time horizon there?

Lindsay Hall

Chief Financial Officer

Adam it’s Lindsay yeah, that works with 30% . Adam Graf – Cowen & Co.: Okay. Very good thank you guys.

Charles Jeannes

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from Anita Soni from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Anita Soni – Credit Suisse: Good afternoon guys. My questions is regards to the 10% withholding tax that Argentina is proposing on dividends out of the country. Is that different from the resource tax?

Lindsay Hall

Chief Financial Officer

Anita it’s Lindsay, it’s different from resource correct, it’s correct. Anita Soni – Credit Suisse: Alright so we should be modeling 10% additional taxation on Cerro Negro starting when you start to go commercial?

Lindsay Hall

Chief Financial Officer

No because you know that when we pay dividend out of Cerro Negro you can imagine how we finance Cerro Negro is not debt equity. So for the first many years of Cerro Negro we are taking the cash out through repayment of loans so that won’t attract any tax. Anita Soni – Credit Suisse: Okay. And then with respect to the capital cost escalation at Cerro Negro. What do you expect will be the sustaining capital life of mine at this stage given the escalation you’ve had on the capital cost side or preproduction capital cost?

Russell Ball

Management

Yes Anita it’s Russ sustaining capital there is actually product of the budget exercise as you are well aware I think it’s in the range of $40 million to $50 million if memory serves but we are looking at with Mariana Norte not being developed it’s going to change. So 40 to 50 round numbers was my recollection but we can get back to you. Anita Soni – Credit Suisse: 40 to 50 per annum.

Russell Ball

Management

40 million a year, total sustaining capital. Anita Soni – Credit Suisse: Alright, thank you .

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from Brian Yu from Citi. Please go ahead. Brian Yu – Citigroup: Great, thanks. Then my first question is on Penasquito and I had looked at the presentation that you guys had issued when I had done a tour few years back and it looks like your recovery rates are tracking better than the one that were expected. Recognize that there is natural relationship between grade and recovery but if you look at the grades you are running at now are recoveries running as expected or is it better than you thought?

Charles Jeannes

Management

It’s fairly variable to be candid, overall the recoveries are in line with our expectations. But it’s the complex ore body and we get into certain ore blocks the recoveries are significantly below the averages you see in our results and time zone or above. So I guess I describe our complex ore body overall recoveries are doing what we expected. Brian Yu – Citigroup: Okay. and then second one is fact back to Adam’s question on Mexico tax. You say it does go through the Senate as proposed. Do you think that’s going to have an impact on the carrying value of the property on the books?

Lindsay Hall

Chief Financial Officer

No, Brian it’s Lindsay. We build that into our whatever we do it I think you are talking about impairment test and we – we are fine Brian fine. Brian Yu – Citigroup: Okay, great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instruction) The following question is [Harry Metier] from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi. When you guys issued your bond deal earlier this year I think the initial intent is to keep some of the proceeds on the balance sheet to handle the 2014 convert that would necessary return to the bond market. I just want to get an update obviously the near term commodity outlook has changed a bit and higher cost at Cerro Negro. Can you just update us what on your thinking about next year convert and how you might address it?

Lindsay Hall

Chief Financial Officer

Harry, it’s Lindsay I mean obviously we have to – the payment is due in August ‘ 14 so we’ll make that decision but if gold prices stay where they are at today 1,300 or whatever they are settling on today. We do have capital flexibility but probably our intention is if you asked me today what I see doing we’d probably go into the market and finance that in 2014.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from John Bridges from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. John Bridges – JPMorgan: Hi. Good morning everybody.

Charles Jeannes

Management

Good morning John. John Bridges – JPMorgan: Just following up on Hollinger did you say what the current calculated gold price?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Little less than the 1,000 bucks. John Bridges – JPMorgan: Okay. so you don’t have to move the road and some houses?

Charles Jeannes

Management

Yeah there is no infrastructure impacted by the pit design and it still accomplishes reclamation of the historic mining that was also a target of this mine plan. John Bridges – JPMorgan: Okay perfect. The strip ratio for that do you have that?

Charles Jeannes

Management

It’s roughly four to one. John Bridges – JPMorgan: Okay excellent. Thank you very much.

Charles Jeannes

Management

Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I would like to return the meeting to Chuck Jeannes.

Charles Jeannes

Management

Okay. Thanks very much everyone. Just a final note on the gold price the U.S government shut down and weaker than expected labor statistics have further deferred expectations for an end to the fed’s quantitative easing program anytime soon I think. And so we saw the gold price respond positively to this development but regardless of the short term moves based on fed action or inaction we firmly believe that the long term factors supporting the strong gold price remain in place. But we can control the price of gold. So we will continue to focus on those things we can control, delivering on our production forecast, reducing our cost and being careful stewards of our shareholder’s capital. So thanks everyone for joining us today. Have a safe and healthy holiday season and we look forward to talking to you again in the New Year. Bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes today’s conference call. Please disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.