Newmont Corporation (NEM) Q1 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Hello, and welcome to Newmont's First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Newmont's Group Head of Treasury and Investor Relations, Neil Backhouse, Neil, please go ahead.

Thank you, Christine. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Newmont's First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. Joining me today are Natascha Viljoen, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Peter Wexler, our Interim Chief Financial Officer and Chief Legal Officer; and other members of our management team who will be available to answer questions at the end of the call. Before we begin, please take a moment to review our cautionary statements shown here and refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Natascha.

Thank you, Neil, and hello, everyone. Newmont's focus on operational excellence continues to deliver consistent and predictable performance with our first quarter results demonstrating that we are on track to achieve our 2026 guidance. And importantly, this consistency is reflected in our compelling financial results. Our unrivaled portfolio of high-quality operations and projects, combined with our focus on cost discipline and productivity positions us to capture the benefits of higher commodity prices, even amid the operational headwinds we experienced in the first quarter, delivering margin expansion and robust free cash flow generation. The benefits of record free cash flow generation are flowing through our enhanced capital allocation framework, resulting in continuous reinvestment in our business, a predictable quarterly dividend and ongoing share repurchases, supplemented by new $6 billion dollar share repurchase authorization. But before we review our quarterly results in more detail, I want to begin with an update on Cadia, following the magnitude 4.5 earthquake that occurred near the operation on April 14. As mentioned in our released statements, our immediate priority was the safety of our people. Our safety protocols operated as designed and within minutes of the event, all personnel working underground were moved to safe locations before being brought to surface in the subsequent hours following the event. And I'm really pleased to share that there were no injuries. Based on our initial findings, the damage appears limited, reflecting the strength of our ground control systems. I'm pleased to report that the underground power and dewatering systems have been restored and we received approval from the regulator earlier this week to begin repairs. Importantly, all surface infrastructure was inspected immediately following the event and sustained no damage. This includes our tailings facilities. From an operational standpoint, we are currently processing surface stockpiles and expect underground rehabilitation to be completed in the next 5 weeks, enabling return to 80% operating capacity with full recovery expected by the end of the second quarter. As a result, second quarter production is expected to be lower due to this short gap in mill feed with operations returning to normal levels beginning the third quarter. I want to recognize and personally thank the team at Cadia, who responded quickly and effectively, implementing established emergency procedures to ensure the safety of all personnel and positioning the operation for the best possible recovery. Turning now to our operational performance. In the first quarter, we produced 1.3 million ounces of gold, 30,000 tonnes of copper and 9 million ounces of silver, with both copper and silver volumes supporting a favorable by-product cost profile for the quarter. As the third largest silver producer in the world, we also benefited from a favorable silver price environment, further supporting our free cash flow generation and unit cost management. The performance translated into strong financial results, including $3.8 billion in cash flow from operations after working capital and $3.1 billion in free cash flow, marking another all-time quarterly record, which is especially notable given the seasonal working capital headwinds typically experienced in the first quarter of each year. During the quarter, we also received approximately $321 million in after-tax proceeds from the sale of equity investments in SolGold and Greatland resources, along with contingent payments related to the divestments of Musselwhite and Cripple Creek & Victor last year, bringing total after-tax proceeds received from our noncore divestiture program to over $4.6 billion. Touching briefly on cost performance, which Peter will cover in a little bit more detail shortly. Over the last few weeks, the world has experienced a notable increase in energy prices and impacts to global supply chain dynamics as a result of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. We continue to monitor the geopolitical environment and its potential impact on costs closely, but remain encouraged by our demonstrated ability to effectively manage cost and improve productivity, and are, therefore, maintaining our full year cost guidance at this time. Taking our strong first quarter operational and financial performance into account, we expect to remain well positioned to continue executing on the enhanced capital allocation framework that we have announced in February. Since our last earnings call, we have reduced debt by an additional $42 million and are pleased to share that we have returned $2.7 billion to shareholders through both regular dividends and ongoing share repurchases. Fully exhausting our previous repurchase authorization. In line with our established approach, our Board has approved another $6 billion share repurchase program, reinforcing our enhanced capital allocation framework and disciplined approach to returning excess cash to shareholders. This framework is designed to systematically reduce Newmont's share count and in doing so, driving sustainable per share dividend growth and improved across other key per-share metrics. Building on our strong first quarter performance and looking ahead to the rest of the year, we remain on track to achieve our 2026 guidance, continue generating robust free cash flow from our world-class portfolio and return capital to shareholders in a consistent manner. Operationally, we delivered a stronger-than-expected quarter, especially considering challenging conditions faced by several of our sites, including the bush fires at Boddington, we have since made a full recovery with full throughput capacity back to normal levels for the second quarter. We've had extreme snowfall at Brucejack and record levels of rainfall at Tanami. This performance underscores the strength and resilience of our world-class portfolio build around high-quality long-life assets that are intentionally diversified, both operationally and jurisdictionally to deliver consistent performance across a range of operating conditions. Not only withstanding volatility as it arises, but also capturing value from it. Given this strong start to the year, we believe it is appropriate to maintain our existing production weighting. Our first quarter outperformance provides prudent flexibility to absorb any impact from temporary interruptions to mill feed at Cadia in the second quarter, as we progress recovery efforts following the earthquake. First quarter production was driven by several key factors. At Cadia, we saw a step up in gold and copper production compared to the fourth quarter, supported by improved throughput and favorable grades from the current panel cave. At Merian, production also increased compared to the fourth quarter as we begin to access higher grades from Merian 2 pit as planned. At Ahafo South, production increased due to higher mining rates and improved underground draw point availability. At Yanacocha, we delivered stronger leach production performance from high grades out of Quecher Main. And as we discussed last quarter, we have begun executing on a highly capital-efficient plan to continue mining operations through 2026 and into 2027, adding low-cost ounces that are expected to benefit our production profile in 2027 with further potential upside. Penasquito delivered strong co-product production in the quarter, particularly silver and zinc, as we continue to process stockpiles during the transition phase between Phase 7 and Phase 8. And finally, the ramp-up at Ahafo North continues to progress very well and in line with the plan -- in line with plan in its first full year of commercial production. We also achieved several notable milestones in our projects in execution during the quarter. At our Tanami Expansion 2 project work has now fully resumed following the temporary pause earlier in the quarter with the underground primary crusher now commissioned and the materials handling system on track for completion by the end of the second quarter. We have also completed the investigation into the fatality that occurred at Tanami earlier this year and are committed to ensuring the learnings are shared across our organization and with the broader industry. At Cadia, both PC2-3 and PC1-2 are progressing well and is tracking to plan as they move through key phases of development. Newmont's first quarter performance continues to highlight the strength and resilience of our portfolio as well as the progress we have made to stabilize and improve our operations, positioning us to deliver consistent performance and achieve our full year commitments. I will now turn the call over to Peter to walk through our financial results for the quarter. Peter?

Thank you, Natascha. And hello, everyone. Newmont delivered outstanding financial results in the first quarter, driven by strong operational performance that Natascha just outlined and the supportive metal price environment. Our continued focus on disciplined execution resulted in adjusted EBITDA of $5.2 billion and adjusted net income of $2.90 per diluted share for the quarter. But most notably, Newmont generated $3.8 billion in cash flow from operations after working capital and a record $3.1 billion of free cash flow even after making approximately $1.3 billion in cash tax payments during the quarter. Gold all-in sustaining costs were below our full year guidance at $1,029 per ounce for the first quarter on a byproduct basis. Our cost profile benefited meaningfully from stronger-than-expected co-product pricing and sales volumes, lower cost applicable to sales as a result of disciplined capital spending and the timing of sustaining capital. As Natascha noted earlier, we are maintaining our cost guidance and while higher oil prices may create incremental pressure, we view this as manageable at this time and are actively working to mitigate the impact rather than viewing it as a risk to our operating plans. And as a reminder, the guidance we provided in February was based on a $70 per barrel Brent assumption with diesel making up approximately 6% of our direct operating costs. For every $10 per barrel change in oil prices, we expect approximate $60 million impact on cost, which equates to roughly, a $12 per ounce impact on all-in sustaining costs. We are not currently experiencing any disruption to fuel availability and continue to maintain business continuity by leveraging our scale and strong supply chain team, which is working closely with suppliers to proactively identify and manage risks. While higher fuel prices began to materialize in March, we remain focused on offsetting these pressures through continued cost and productivity improvements across our operations. In addition, in February, we quantified the potential annual impact of the newly introduced Ghana sliding scale royalty on our cost profile. While this will represent an incremental cost headwind of approximately $25 per ounce in 2026. Our goal is to mitigate the impact through disciplined cost management and productivity initiatives. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect production to be slightly below the first quarter, keeping us on track to deliver our full year production guidance of 5.3 million ounces. Sustaining capital is expected to increase in the second quarter as we move into the summer season at Brucejack and Red Chris, take delivery of mobile equipment at multiple sites and continue progressing tailings work, primarily at Cadia and Boddington. Similarly, development capital is expected to increase beginning in the second quarter as we progress the expansion at Cerro Negro, advance the feasibility study work at Red Chris, and begin spending on the Lihir nearshore barrier project later this year with our full year guidance of $1.4 billion remaining weighted to the second half. All-in sustaining costs are expected to be notably higher in the second quarter and more in line with the guidance we provided in February, driven by the ramp-up in sustaining capital, higher cost applicable to sales and lower silver production than we saw in the first quarter as planned. Turning to capital allocation. Last quarter, we introduced our enhanced capital allocation framework, which is underpinned by net cash from operations and prioritizes cash flow in a clear and disciplined manner. This framework is designed to be sustainable through the cycle, maximize shareholder returns and maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet, and we are already seeing the positive benefits of this framework in action through our first quarter results. Within this framework, excess cash is first allocated to sustaining capital spend and our dividend, priorities that are intended to remain consistent through the cycle. We continue to invest in sustaining capital to strengthen the longevity and integrity of our portfolio, with $381 million spent in the first quarter. Next, cash is allocated to our sustainable total cash dividend of $1.1 billion per year, which is paid quarterly. In the first quarter, we declared a dividend of $0.26 per share which is consistent with the last quarter and aligned with this approach. Following these commitments, our development capital spend and balance sheet position may flex over time to reflect portfolio needs and broader market conditions. We continue to invest in development capital to advance our highest return opportunities from our deep organic pipeline with $239 million deployed in the first quarter. At the same time, we remain committed to maintaining a resilient balance sheet, anchored by our net cash target of $1 billion plus or minus $2 billion over the course of the year. The target is managed on an annual basis and may vary quarter-to-quarter due to macroeconomic conditions, including the recent volatility in gold price. Once these priorities are met, excess cash is allocated to share repurchases. Since our last earnings call, we have repurchased $2.4 billion in shares, fully completing our previous authorization and bringing the total repurchases to $6 billion since we began repurchasing shares over 24 months ago. As a result, our Board has doubled the size of our share repurchase program with an additional $6 billion authorization, representing our fourth authorization since February 2024. We intend to execute this program consistently in line with our capital allocation framework, reflecting our confidence in the intrinsic value of our shares and benefits of these repurchases and the benefits these repurchases deliver over time. As we approach completion of this authorization, we expect to seek additional approval from our Board, consistent with our disciplined and repeatable approach to returning excess cash to shareholders. Both our share repurchase program and the resulting per share dividend growth are formulaic outputs of our capital allocation framework with repurchases systematically reducing our share count, driving higher per share metrics and increasing shareholder exposure to the free -- to the strong free cash flow generated by our portfolio. In fact, on a per share basis, our free cash flow is already 6% higher than it would have been prior to initiating our share repurchase program. At its core, this framework is designed to deliver sustained per share growth, maintain balance sheet strength and provide shareholders with consistent and growing exposure to the value generated by our world-class portfolio. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Natascha for closing remarks.

Thank you, Peter. In closing, Newmont has had a very strong start to this year, reflecting the deliberate progress we have made to strengthen our operations and enhance the capabilities of our teams and systems, driven by disciplined execution and a clear focus on our commitments. We remain on track to achieve our 2026 guidance, supported by solid operational and financial performance in the first quarter and are well positioned to drive margin expansion and generate strong free cash flow through continued cost discipline and productivity improvements across our world-class portfolio, which continues to deliver stable and consistent results. Our enhanced capital allocation framework is translating that performance into shareholder returns through a predictable dividend and ongoing share repurchases, supported by a new $6 billion authorization. Looking ahead, we will continue to leverage our industry-leading portfolio and deep bench strength of expertise across all functions to build a stable and resilient future for Newmont, positioning us to generate growing free cash flow and deliver increasing returns on a per share basis even in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. Before turning to questions, I want to briefly address that we continue to engage constructively with our Nevada Gold Mines joint venture partner with a clear focus on improving the performance of our shared assets and delivering long-term value for Newmont shareholders. With that, we look forward to addressing your questions. And I will now hand it back to Christine, our operator, to open the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank.

Great. Natascha, can you comment on the -- where we are on the whole process with the default that was issued on February of this year with respect to Nevada Gold Mines?

Yes. Thank you, Tanya. Good question. I'll start, and then I'll hand over to Peter to get into a little bit more detail. I think Tanya for starters, as we said in our prepared remarks, our focus remained, firstly, on improving the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture performance. And then we are continuously working with our joint venture partner to gain more information around Fourmile and the work that we need to do there. And then for the notice of default, specifically, I'll hand over to Peter Wexler.

Thank you, Tanya, for the question. The period of the notice of default is open ended, and we're working with them. As Natascha said earlier, to work on the operations, and we work through an orderly process on the notice of default, including exercising our audit rights, reviewing those findings. So it's really just an ongoing process at this point in time.

Okay. So my follow-up question is that I'm just trying to understand how long this process is going to take. So I'm assuming that you had meetings with them, you've got the information or Barrick has handed over the information that you've asked for, and now you're in the process of reviewing this. And talking to Barrick on how we move forward. I'm just trying to understand the procedure and what to expect on the time?

Actually, if you -- while you may see time lines in the agreements, it's more of an iterative process between the 2 companies. So we have questions and follow-up questions on information. And as you correctly assumed, they respond to us and we work productively through those answers. There's no set time line for bringing it to resolution but we hope to do so in the near term and make sure that Nevada Gold Mines is operating at the highest level possible.

Our next question comes from Matthew Murphy with BMO Markets.

Congratulations on a strong first quarter. Can you take us through where operations were beating your expectations? And it sounds like Q2 may be a little bit down quarter-on-quarter. Should we think about Q2 as sort of the lowest production quarter for the business and then progressive sort of momentum from there.

Yes, Matthew, and thank you for that question. I think if we look at quarter 1, the improved performance that we have seen was across, firstly, Yanacocha, where we saw beat after the last Quecher Main ore that we have mined that we see the benefit of that coming through. We have also seen an improved throughput and grade from Cadia coming through, and that was certainly the basis of that improvement. Then the solar production at Penasquito higher than what we have delivered at any quarter last year, and that's just a phasing on where we are in the pit. And I think importantly, also strongly supported by really high silver prices. We have also treated the last -- well, the last remaining stockpile from our Subika open pit material at Ahafo South, and we started to see Ahafo North, obviously, continuing well with its production ramp-up. As we look into the second quarter, and we've depleted the Subika open pit stocks at Ahafo South, we do see lower grades coming from Apensu and Awonsu open pits. For Penasquito in this quarter, we will have some months that we are treating organic carbon. And therefore, we will also see lower silver production. And then, of course, as we've touched on earlier, we will see the recovery proceeds that we are working through at Cadia. So therefore, a slightly lower quarter as expected, and we'll see that -- we'll see the third quarter coming back stronger.

Okay. And as a second question, slightly different topic, but related to the CFO recruitment process. Peter, certainly, Newmont's delivering results with you in the CFO chair, but there is the interim in the title. So Natascha, any update on how that recruitment process is going?

That recruitment process is going well, Matthew, and we trust that we'll be able to share more information soon.

Our next question comes from Anita Soni with CIBC.

I just wanted to ask, when it comes to the discussions around Fourmile. Have you had any discussions with Barrick on bringing that into the joint venture partnership at this stage?

Anita, we continue to collect information on Fourmile and to do our technical evaluation as I think, as we've touched on before.

Okay. Sorry, I missed that. And then just in terms of some of the mine sequencing, I think you touched upon the stockpile processing that you would be doing at Cadia. Can you give us an indication, I guess, stockpile to bridge gap between pulling ore from the underground. But could you give us an indication of what grade those stockpiles are at right now?

Anita, we'll have to come back to you. I can't give you an indication, but I'll ask Neil to just give you the feedback on the grade.

Our next question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.

Thank you, operator. Hello Natascha and team, nice quarterly results. And thank you for today's update. Can I ask about the cost pressures? I mean, I think it's notable, the impressive unit cost results in Q1, considering what have been relatively significant cost pressures on energy. Could you speak to some of the levers that Newmont can pull in order to ensure that input cost inflation doesn't drive 2026 unit cost guidance above the range. And then to what extent might Newmont be insulated from cost pressures across the supply chain.

Lawson, thank you for that question. And indeed, we were very pleased with quarter 1's all-in sustaining cost on a byproduct basis. Firstly, we know that the -- we have seen the work that we've done last year, both on productivity improvement and cost reduction and now going into cost discipline. We've seen that benefit flow through in various aspects of our CAS. Our CAS was impacted in the first quarter by elements like Tanami that where we saw a period of stoppage due to the fatality. We have also had lower production in 2 areas, predominantly Lihir and Cerro Negro due to shutdowns that we've had that impacted CAS. And then we've seen just a seasonal lower sustaining capital for quarter 1. With the discipline that we've established last year, the levers sits in 2 areas. The one is in productivity where the best way for us to offset the increased cost pressures that we see from input costs through higher productivity. We have seen through the last quarter and going into this year, as an example, we have parked a high number of pieces of equipment drive across all of our operations to help us to reduce consumption. That's certainly the first area that we will be focusing on. We will also continue to do that cost discipline work to offset high -- the impact of higher gold price and the impact that it has in royalties and worker participation. As we think going forward, we have not seen the full impact coming through on increased fuel cost. And the same levers that I've touched on just now, will continue to be the levers that we will pull both in terms of fuel cost, but also the second and third-order consequences that might come through on the back of as we see higher energy costs flowing through. In the meantime, we have a really strong supply chain team that works closely with our suppliers, and we're certainly leveraging across the different jurisdictions, the benefits that we have with the geographical spread to pull all of the levers we can to both sustain supply and manage cost.

Okay. That's extremely helpful. If I could ask what might not be a quick follow-up, but could be.

Yes. Sorry, Lawson, yes?

We will go to our next question while Lawson gets back on. Our next question in the meantime will be from Josh Wolfson with RBC.

I'll follow on Lawson's questions. Hopefully, I'm not taking them before he gets the chance to redial in. Thank you for providing some of that disclosure on energy price or oil price impacts and the diesel overall exposure. You mentioned some of the secondary factors there. Is there any way the company can quantify the impact of sensitivity to some of these overall primary and secondary impacts based on current prices?

Josh, not at this stage. I think the sensitivities that we supply both firstly, on fuel and then also just our cost mix is what we have available at this stage.

Okay. And then just following on that theme of costs. Beyond the energy side of things, is there any commentary the company can provide in terms of broader trends in terms of costs and that would include labor or reagents. And then alongside that, regionally, is there any perspective the team can provide maybe where there's higher pressures or lower pressures?

Josh, I think, if I think through the various elements of our cost, labor, materials and services and energy, I think we've spoken at length about energy. Labor is always a continuous conversation, and we do see our agreements with labor coming up for renewal on a continuous basis across all of the jurisdictions we operate in. So far, we have been able to get agreements in place with every -- in all of the areas that we were negotiating new agreements. So nothing more than what we have planned for and has been included in our guidance. And then, of course, the last one is what we've just discussed on services and materials. Nothing else.

Okay. And then maybe your perspective, regionally there, if there's any specific areas where you see inflation higher or lower?

No. I think, Lawson (sic) [ Joshua ], not on the inflation cost due to higher cost, due to higher gold prices and royalties and workers' participation, but not the inflation more in specific areas, no.

The next question we have comes from Lawson Winder again from Bank of America Securities.

Just wanted to -- before I ask my question, I want to double check, you can hear me?

Yes, we can hear you.

I think Josh actually covered a lot of the questions, but something else that I've had on my mind is just the M&A outlook. We've seen some activity from one of your peers already this week. And I mean, based on the work we've done, it's a pretty conducive environment for M&A. What's Newmont's appetite for acquisitions at the current moment.

Thanks, Lawson and Josh. I do apologize if you're still on the line. I believe I've just called you Lawson because Lawson and I thought we're still talking to you. So Lawson, just from disciplined capital allocation point of view. Our focus remains firmly firstly, on continuing to drive our own operations to be the best operators of these operations and to get them to operate in the way that they should. Then we have a number of brownfield opportunities, firstly, that we believe would be very value accretive for us. And then, of course, by the time we get to greenfields projects and any, what could be acquisition opportunities, it will have to compete for capital within the broader portfolio. So our focus at this stage remains firmly internally on our own operations.

Our next question comes from Fahad Tariq with Jefferies.

There was a headline yesterday that Ghana is asking Newmont among other companies to shift mining operations to local firms by the end of this year. Maybe just any color you can provide on thoughts around that and whether that timing is feasible, what that could mean for costs, et cetera?

Fahad, very, very relevant topic for us. I think, firstly, I need to start by saying that we all know that we've got a long history in Ghana and we have been over this period of time, invested, I think, responsibly and we've built good relationships. The contractor mining issue is not new for us. We have been working with the Minerals Commission on this matter over a period of time and also on our approach to this matter. And it's important to note that we will -- we are following a process that is commercially and technically disciplined. Because what we want to do is to ensure that what we develop here has long-term options for our investments in Ghana and also in support of government's objectives here. We are in active engagement, not only with the Minerals Commission. But I had an opportunity last week to meet with President Mahama. And I think these relationships and conversations are very constructive and in the best interest of all parties.

And then maybe just as a follow-up, based on the work that you've done or the team has done, would it be possible to use local contractors for all the mining operations if the deadline doesn't change? In other words, is that something that's even feasible?

It depends on how you define mining operations, and there are certainly certain mining operations that there is good capacity and capability in Ghana. But other areas that's more technically complex we -- that will both impact the productivity of our operations, the safety of our operations. We hold a very firm view on how we approach any of those areas. So I think it is a combination, if we think about some of the more bulk kind of operations across mining, there's definitely capability, but not in all aspects.

Our next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey.

Natascha, just on the supply chain. My question is not on cost, but on availability. So with regard to diesel and everything else that you need to run your business, is there anything in the supply chain you can identify that you might face shortages on that could impact your business outcomes at all?

Daniel, no, at this stage, there's nothing that we have identified. We do, however, keep a very close eye on all of our supply chain, not only the primary supply, but also how this primary impact on energy, for instance, will impact some of the second and third order consequences of that is any potential disruptions. And at this -- and we're working very closely with the suppliers, industry partners and governments to support our operations.

And just on Cadia, not -- my question is not related to the other bits. It continues to outperform expectations with regard to grade -- is that positive grade reconciliation? Or is it higher grade ore presenting itself earlier than thought? Basically, I'm just wondering if this win we've had in recent times means we see lower production in future periods.

Daniel, it's -- what we're seeing is coming through the existing caves, PC2 specifically. So it is higher grade reconciliation. And we continue to expect this grade to decrease as we get to the end of this cave's life.

Our next question comes from Daniel Major with UBS.

Natascha, questions. First one, just thinking about the business beyond the current year. You've not been guiding on a 3-year basis. Do you intend to reinstate medium-term guidance at some point in the future? And then the kind of second part of that question, if you're looking at an asset level, at least directionally, what we should be expecting for the major moving parts into 2027 if you can give any steer at this point?

Daniel, we know that there is a keen interest for us to give multiyear guidance. And as we work through this year, we will -- we're all keeping that in mind to consider that for 2027 guidance. If I think about 2027 and key movements as we see this portfolio getting back to, growing back to the 6 million ounces. The areas that's of interest for us is if I just think through the various jurisdictions. Lihir, we're starting to get into high-grade areas. That's part of the mine plan and part of work that we've been doing there. Cadia, we see the new caves come on. Boddington as we complete the pushbacks and getting into high-grade areas. Ahafo North, getting -- fully ramping up. Cerro Negro as we continue to drive really hard on the productivity work there, and we have some other shorter-term options that will come online. Yanacocha as we see this. The shorter-term additional production from mining coming on as well. So those are some of the early movers that will help us to. You will remember, we said that in 2026, we run a trough, and those are the big movers that will start to build up on the other side of the trough.

Okay. So the message is that very much this is the trough year and there should be meaningful improvement in the subsequent years. Is that how I read on that?

Yes. No, that's it. Thanks, Daniel.

Okay. And then maybe if I could ask my follow-up question just on a similar growth trajectory. You've indicated the intention to FID the Red Chris project in the second half of this year. Can you give us any idea on the magnitude of kind of increase relative to the previous CapEx estimates provided by Newcrest?

Daniel, the process that we're following is a very structured process. We have taken on board the lessons from the fall of ground that we've had last year. We're progressing really well with that work. We also are progressing well with the engagements with our Tahltan, the Tahltan community to progress our permits. So all of that is tracking well. And we will be able to give you a proper estimate that you all hopefully know by now, we want to say what we do and do what we say. So by the time when we give you an estimate on capital. It will be an estimate that we will hold ourselves accountable for.

Our last question comes from Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research. This will be our last question.

I had a follow-up related to the notice of default. If I understand it properly, there was an identified event of default related to evidence of mismanagement, diversion of resources at the JV. You filed the notice of default. And there could be a range of remedies, something as simple that Barrick offers a cure related to that event of default up to much more consequential remedies. Can you talk about the range of remedies? And what are your rights under the JV related to those?

Bob, I'm going to ask Peter Wexler to respond to that.

Sure, Bob. And I think you captured it accurately in your statement, there are a range of possibilities. And discussing each and every range probably is not practicable. I think at the end of the day, if -- the best way to look at it is we're working through the process, as I told one of the other analysts. And we are going back and forth in this iterative process to try and understand exactly each other's viewpoint on what transpired and how things were working. Once we've gone through that process, then either there's a potential meeting of the minds or another avenue would have to be followed. We hope it's the former because that is part of getting NGM back on track. But like you said, there's a range of possibilities, and we are working through the structured process in the JV agreement and where that takes us. Well, hopefully, hopefully, we'll work that out between us and not need to resort to any third parties intervening and viewpoints.

Very good. A quick follow-up, third-party intervention, would that be arbitration or litigation?

It depends. We hope that there's a wide variety of ways we could pursue that path if and when it became necessary, we certainly hope it doesn't.

This concludes the question-and-answer session. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.