James L. Herbert
Analyst · Craig-Hallum Capital Group
Well, thanks, Lon. Though, I guess I might be likely branded as an eternal optimist, I always get a bit more of an optimistic buzz each time I hear Lon talk about where we're going in the future. Let me take the next few minutes and give you some feel of what we think we're seeing in the markets and what we may be giving you an idea of how they may impact our business over the next 3 quarters. First of all, let's look at weather conditions. I mentioned and Lon in his comments then, that parts of the European grain areas were hit by cold, wet weather in the late spring to early summer. This brought on an increase in the instance of one of the natural toxins deoxynivalenol, or DON. This problem helped to bolster a part of the Neogen Europe revenues that I talked about earlier. This was evident when I was over there in June. It was -- we could already begin to see some incidents of these toxins forming in the field. And though that crop will continue to be tested in the U.K. and Germany and France, as it find its way through the marketplace, it's out of the field now. So the harvest is completed. And probably the big surge in test kit sales will slow down. A bigger weather-related surge is now underway as a result of the drought-stricken areas across the U.S. and the impact on the nation's corn crop. This has been particularly critical since the major grain states across the central Midwest were the hardest hit by the high temperatures and inadequate rainfall. This kind of weather gives rise to another of the mycotoxins that come from molds that grow on corn kernels during a hot wet -- hot, dry seasons and puts them under stress -- this toxin is known as aflatoxin. Aflatoxin is the most potent of the naturally occurring carcinogens and has maximum tolerable levels now in over 100 countries. Though testing in the U.S. is not mandatory, selling in the U.S. any grain with over 20 parts per billion is a violation of the U.S. Food and Drug regulations. Neogen began to see the impact of this problem as our sales of tests of aflatoxin begin to increase strongly at the end of the first quarter and now continuing into the second quarter, which we're in today. Good news, I think, has developed over the past month that indicates the damage is not as bad as we had earlier feared as far as overall damage to the crop. In most places, damage seems to be spotty. There's plenty of damage, but it's spotty, and not across in the entire state. However, this means that more testing will likely have to be done in order to segment the crop, the good grain from the bad grain. As of last week, 26% of the nation's corn crop has already been harvested, which is considerably earlier than the 5-year average when we only used to have about 9% of that crop out of the field. We'll have a little bit better idea what the corn crop situation looks like on Thursday when USDA issues its next grain stocks report. Our folks are continually on the line with customers scattered all across the U.S., both producers as well as processors. They told me -- the group out of our milling and grain division told me yesterday morning that they had worked straight through the weekend working with grain elevators and with companies from areas like the pet food industry, they're trying to find places to be able to buy clean corn already at this point. I think it's kind of interesting to look at corn in light of the food security issues that we talked about. Though this year's corn crop of approximately 10.7 billion bushels has pushed the cash price up to over $8, it's still a very big crop. 20 years ago, the U.S. produced about 5 billion bushels compared to the 10.7 billion bushels that we had produced this year. This is just one indication, I think, of the pressures that were going to be -- there's going to be placed on food security. As our population grows and the corn requirement for human consumption for ethanol, fuel production, as well as for animal feeding, will likely continue to grow at the kind of pace that we've seen over the last 20 years. So corn prices will continue to be higher than in recent years. As I said earlier, many believe that the crop is a little bit better than we expected and therefore, we expect to see -- some expect to see some prices -- some price drop, which would make it more compelling to increase production of animal proteins. There is an indication now -- we look at what may be impacting our business, there is an indication that there's some liquidation in hog numbers occurring especially across the Midwest. While pork supplies go down and feed costs go up, we should see some decent equilibrium beginning to aid profitability in pork production. The reduction in hog numbers may have some impact on a few of Neogen's Food Safety or Animal Safety products, but certainly not going to be disastrous. There's also some movement in dairy cattle numbers. But due to the intensity of milk production, we do not expect to see those economics to have much impact at all on our second quarter. The beef cattle business is problematic. We have the smallest beef cattle herd we've had since the 1950s. This fall and next spring's calf crops will likewise be smaller. Our Animal Safety group could feel the impact of this, even though the cow calf business will be financially rewarding to cattlemen. Let me shift away a little bit. We've talked a good bit about the grain and the drought and the weather. Let me shift away and talk here in conclusion about some other things that are happening. A new report which just came out from the Centers for Disease Control at the FDA last month shows that the instances of food-borne illnesses last year are about the same or have increased as compared to earlier years. The Salmonella, E. coli and Campylobacter all showed increases. A report from another group that came out last week shows that the number of food recalls in the U.S. increased 19% in just the second quarter of the year as compared to the first quarter of the year. Undeclared allergens were, again, the primary cause of the second quarter recalls and accounted, I think, for about 40% of the total recalls. There were 156 companies that had recalls during the second quarter, with 12 of those companies having more than 1 recall. Over 1/3 of those recalls were on a nationwide basis as compared to a more confined single or multi-state level. And now meanwhile, more groups are calling on the Obama administration to move ahead on regulations to implement the FDA Food Safety Modernization Act that was signed into law in January of 2011. However, here we are 18 months later, much of that law has not been implemented and the deadlines that were set by the Congress for publishing final rules have long since passed. The law puts into place regulations concerning pathogen control in fruits and vegetables, preventative controls for most human foods and animal feeds, and perhaps, most important, regulations to govern the safety of food that's imported into the U.S. So I guess, drawing all this together, the next several months promise to be most interesting for a company dedicated to food safety and food security. As we produce more food faster in order to keep up with the world demand, the problems of Food Safety get more complex. By design, Neogen is a leader in the continued development in marketing of products to help with those concerns. Our balance sheet, if you noticed the press release this morning, continues to strengthen with adequate cash reserves, and roughly a 5% increase in shareholder equity already at the end of the first quarter as compared to May 31. But we continue to look at several interesting acquisitions that could be synergistic to our business. Even though I don't have any announcements for you today, it is possible that we could get something done in the current quarter. However, they're just no big deals seemingly to be done right now. Having said that, smaller acquisitions have proven successful for Neogen as we've made now, I think 21 acquisitions in the last 12 years, all of which were accretive at both the top line and the bottom line and are all still revenue and profit producers for the company. This -- in conclusion of our prepared comments this morning, let me remind you that the Annual Meeting of Shareholders will be held here in Lansing, Michigan on October 4. If you have proxies that you have not yet voted, we'd appreciate you doing so just as soon as possible. And along with 750 other Neogen employees, let me once, again, say thank you for your support as we strive to make this an even bigger and better world-class company. Now this concludes, operator, our prepared comments this morning. And we'll now open the call for any questions from participants.