Earnings Labs

NewMarket Corporation (NEU)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 2, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the NewMarket Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2015 Financial Results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Mr. Brian Paliotti. Thank you, Mr. Paliotti. You may begin.

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Michelle, and thanks everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Teddy Gottwald, our Chairman and CEO. As a reminder, some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking. Relevant factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements are contained in our earnings release and our SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K. During this call, we may also discuss non-GAAP financial measures included in our earnings release. The earnings release, which can be found on our website, includes a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP financial measures. We intend to file our 2015 10-K towards the middle of February. It will contain significantly more details on the operations and the performance of our company. Please take the time to review it. I will be referring to the data that was included in last night’s release. All comparisons I mentioned will be the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2014, unless I indicate otherwise. Now into the fourth quarter results, our net income was $53.9 million, which calculates to earnings of $4.50 per share. Net income for the fourth quarter of 2014 was $52.1 million or $4.17 per share. Excluding the special items detailed in the release from all periods, earnings for this year's fourth quarter were $52.3 million or $4.44 per share, an increase of $0.14 compared to last year. Petroleum additives operating profit for the quarter was $75.3 million versus [ph] a record in 2014 fourth quarter of $85.5 million. Sales for the quarter were $476.7 million, down compared to the sales for the same period of last year of $547.9 million, due to lower shipments, foreign currency exchange and changes in selling price and mix. Shipments were down…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Eugene Fedotoff with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Good morning.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Could you provide some color on where was FX in the quarter impact both, on revenue and operating profit line and also the price mix impact?

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

On a revenue basis in the fourth quarter, the currency impact was $17 million and the price impact was $29 million.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

What was the FX impact on operating profit?

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

The impact of those two on the operating profit, I do not have those right here, but the impact of the currency and the shipment for the revenue was as I stated.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Also, can you give us breakdown between lube additives and fuel additives - growth - actually decline in the quarter?

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

As far as the breakdown between lubes and fuels for shipments in the quarter, we do not share that information.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Are you seeing pickup in customer activity in the first quarter? Did you think de-stocking that you saw in the fourth quarter, is it mostly over?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

This is Teddy. We do not have any way to really firmly determine the amount of de-stocking or how long it goes on. We just know that when oil prices drop 40% in a two-month like they did in the fourth quarter, it is very likely that some of our customers chose to run their tanks down in anticipation, in particular of lower base oil prices, but that impact normally is a short-term impact and does not last beyond a month or six weeks period, so our anticipation would be that it would not continue.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Thank you. I guess a question on sort of do you think you owe to any market share and lubricant additives in 2015. If that is the case, do you expect to regain that market share in '16, or the market overall is - in '15?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

I do not think we lost any share in 2015. I think the market was flat to maybe slightly down in 2015. Too early to get any outside viewpoint on that, but if we peal back and look at our business and where the changes occur, we do not believe we lost any market share. We did not gain any either, which is disappointing to us.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Just a last question on gross margin should grow material, stay at current levels, do you expect gross margin to stay 32% level through 2016?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

We would expect the gross margin to be near to what we had in 2015.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed.

Todd Vencil

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Thanks. Good morning, guys.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Good morning.

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Good morning.

Todd Vencil

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Brian and Teddy, do you guys feel like that 15.8%, which really matters operating margin in the fourth quarter, I mean, was there any kind of cost price benefit in there? I know your crisis tend to react to the same things that your costs do, but I mean if you catch a little temporary tailwind in there or was it basically neutral?

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

That was basically neutral, Todd. We did not see any bumps or declines.

Todd Vencil

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Okay, all right. Just thinking about how product prices have moved kind of through the year, if prices stay where they are now, how deep into 2016 would we be looking at negative year-over-year comps?

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

I do not know if we can answer that at this point. I can tell you that if you look at the fourth quarter petroleum additive margins over the last few years and then what happen in the first quarter in the subsequent quarters over the course of last few years that we normally see that the fourth quarter has a deepening affect on overall operating margins and we expect to seeing the similar profile going into '16.

Todd Vencil

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Okay. That is helpful. I guess, I am not sure you said that loud, you might have - and I think so I am thinking about it, but if long-term outlooks for operating margins in petroleum additives still the mid to high teens?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

That is correct.

Todd Vencil

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Given what is going on and what is going and whatever you think is going to go on with prices and volumes and cost this year, is there any reason to think that 2015 would be any different than that long-term expectation?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

No. Same expectation mid to high teens for the business.

Todd Vencil

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Okay. Final one from me, you mentioned that you are going to keep spending on R&D, which is as anticipated, is that recent run rate of about $40 million a quarter. Is it a reasonable assumption to use?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

I think that is a reasonable assumption to use going forward.

Todd Vencil

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Okay. Thanks a lot guys.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee CRT. Please proceed

Thanks, Todd.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question.

Dmitry Silversteyn

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. A lot have been handled by the first two of people asking, but I want to follow-up on a couple of things. The lube additives business looked like for pretty the much the full year, volumes they were down 1% to 2% and some of the growth happened in fuel additives during those quarters. Was this decline sort of accelerated in the fourth quarter to give you 4.2% down or was it entirely the fuel additives that declined after growing in the quarter and you still had lubes sort of declining to the normal 1% to 2% we saw in the previous three quarters?

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Dmitry, this is Brian. They both accelerated a little bit. As you stated accurately, we saw a fuels kind of grow across the first three and lubes has been down. They both accelerated versus those paces in the fourth quarter, so lubes was down a little bit more and fuels was down more than the first three had grown.

Dmitry Silversteyn

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. In each instance [ph] your customers apparently sort of worked off their inventories in the fourth quarter. Would it be fair to assume that you guys took down your inventories to slog on kind of maybe short inventory heading into the first quarter expecting lower base oil prices?

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

No. Actually, we did not run ours down. We are prepared for 2016. Again, this is a normal quarterly variation. We do not really manage it quarter-to-quarter like that. I mean, we are looking across what the needs are for 2016 and manage the inventories that way.

Dmitry Silversteyn

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

I mean, I understand those normally do it - and as you pointed out, got a 40% decline in oil in one quarter, so I thought maybe this was abnormal enough. Okay. I am looking at the Singapore plants you talked about the - the extension of Phase 1 coming on stream this spring. What would they sort of entail in terms of additional capacity either in the region or for yourselves on a corporate level and that sort of outlook would you expect to fill the capacity before opening up to next year. I am assuming Phase 2 is more of additional product rather than extension of production of existing products?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Yes. Phase 2 is a different slate of products than Phase 1.

Dmitry Silversteyn

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Right.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Both of them combined along with de-bottlenecking and some additional projects are designed to give us the growth capacity we need to meet our goals and our goals are to exceed the market growth rate by a few percentage points, so we are talking about mid-single digit volume growth over a five-year period is what we are gunning for and the capacity additions allow that to happen.

Dmitry Silversteyn

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. I guess my question was for the price for the products that have been made in Phase 1 and will be Phase 2 that this capacity addition sounds like; we will increase both - [ph] for those products will increase by about 50%. Would that be the right takeaway from what you just said or 25%, something like that?

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

No. Dmitry, I think, what we are trying to articulate is that the capacity that we are bringing on-stream is part of the components tree of the world [ph] plan. As far as what we are looking at as far as the long-term, this is just reinforcing us to grow to that few points better, higher than the market over the long-term. That is what we are bringing the capacity on to do.

Dmitry Silversteyn

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Right. I guess, Brian, what I was getting at is, if you are going to be growing at 4% to 5% and I am sure you do not want to be extending plans every year, if you have a five year, let us say timeline built into the extension, it sounds like it was about 25% addition for your production for those particular products. That is what I wanted to confirm. You mentioned a couple of times both, in the press released and the call today that you were somewhat disappointed in the volumes and the performance in 2015-2016. Can you talk about sort of more specifically what disappointed versus your expectation and why you think the results were not up to your expectation a year ago and what are you doing to sort of make sure that you are growing that above market rate in 2016 and for the next five years?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

I think, the market softness was a bit disappointing. We were a successful as I would have like to have seen us and picking up additional business at the rate that we set our goals for. Mostly though I would have said our business performance was very solid. We were please with most of the business performance in of course the 2015. The biggest disappointed was the impact of FX, and our inability or our delays and dealing with that.

Dmitry Silversteyn

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Teddy. Do you think the stronger dollar and therefore product competitive position perhaps by some of your international competitors was one of the reasons you were not unsuccessful in picking up business while you stay disciplined in pricing?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

I do not think it is FX-related, but I am not going get into pricing or our strategy.

Dmitry Silversteyn

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. All right, thank you very much.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Paliotti, I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Brian Paliotti

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, everyone for calling in. We will talk to you next quarter.