Barry Sloane
Analyst · JMP Securities. Your line is now open
Yeah, the behavioral aspect is that we are going into the belly of the default curve on the portfolio, because the overall portfolio is growing. I just give a ballpark number. Chris Towers might be able to help me on this. You're looking at around $400 million, so -- and that's uninsureds.So, even if we do our numbers this year, it only represents call it $125 million-ish of uninsured that you're adding to the whole portfolio. So the portfolio is seasoning. As it seasons, you're going to get more loans that are going to underperform.And as I mentioned on the call, for those that are forecasting losses, without putting an exact finger on it, charge was down the road that will be between 1%, 1.5%. It doesn't bother us, because you've got to look at the chart -- on a static pool basis, you have to look at the charge offs over the life of the loan.So, if you look at what we do when we do the valuation of the loans, we look at it fairly conservative 20% gross cumulative default with a 40% severity. So when you put those two things together, that's over the life of the loan, an 8% charge off.Well, the reality of it is you really don't have charge offs in the first 24 months of a loan. They occur in the belly of the default curve. So, therefore, if you took the 8 number and you said, Jeez. 60% of them are going to happen within this period of time. You can have fairly high charge off numbers.So, once again a very good question. I think it's something for you and other investors to track. But as I mentioned, we're comfortable with higher charge off numbers, which is the better way to follow us going forward as well as looking at the unrealized number, because the unrealized number will be indicative of what will get charged off down the road. The unrealized number however, does come off with a balance sheet and affects our NAV right away.