NewtekOne, Inc. 8.50% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2029 (NEWTG)
Q1 2024 Earnings Call· Tue, May 7, 2024
$25.32
-0.12%
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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NewtekOne, Inc. 2024 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker for today, Barry Sloane, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Thank you very much, and welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2024 financial results conference call. We're very pleased to present our results to you today. Joining me on the call is Scott Price, our Chief Financial Officer of NewtekOne Inc., the publicly traded company, as well as Newtek Bank National Association; in addition, Frank DeMaria, the Chief Accounting Officer, EVP for Newtek Bank -- NewtekOne Inc. And I also have Nick Young, the President and Chief Operating Officer of NewtekOne -- Newtek Bank joining me today. For all of you that want to follow along with the PowerPoint presentation, you could do so by going to our website, newtekone.com, n-e-w-t-e-k-o-n-e dot com. While you're there, you may want to take a look at newtekbank.com and the Newtek Advantage, all valuable information to understanding our organization. We'd also like to welcome the analyst coverage, from KBW, Tim Switzer; from Raymond James, Steve Moss; from Compass Point, Merrill Ross; from Ladenburg, Chris Nolan; from B. Riley, Bryce Rowe; and last but not least, Crispin Love from Piper Sandler. This call today should illuminate a management company that is building a business. That's important to note. Take a look at all the building blocks that we put in our presentation, from growing the accounting and finance department to growing our ability to take deposits in Newtek Bank, N.A., to our ability to move our lending operation into the bank, and making a growing high quality group of loans that have generous risk reward provisions, as well as to being compliant. NewtekOne is clearly a long-term opportunity to invest in a technology-enabled business that provides business solutions and financial solutions and depository services to the 30 million independent business owners across the United States. I'd like to call everyone's attention to Slide #1…
SP
Scott Price
Analyst
Thanks, Barry. Good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 6, our net interest income expanded 16 basis points during the quarter despite higher deposit costs. Average earning assets increased $31.1 million, and we experienced a sizable mix shift with average cash balances declining $45 million and average loans increasing $73 million. A higher percentage of the loan portfolio in the SBA 7(a) product versus last quarter drove the increase in yields on loans. On the funding side, our cost of deposits on a consolidated basis increased 20 basis points as the acquired CD portfolio continues to mature at lower costs. Separately, our interest expense on borrowings was lower as we experienced swift prepays on the NSBF 7(a) portfolio, which led to reductions in notes payable to securitization trusts. Slide 7 is a graphical representation of the ins and outs of net interest income, most of which I've already covered. To summarize, we were able to increase our balance sheet efficiency by deploying excess funds to originate loans. I do expect higher levels of leverage at the bank as we roll out our business checking products and continue our retail deposit gathering. Shifting to Slide 8, our deposit mix was relatively unchanged, sans our high-yield savings balances staying relatively stable and CD portfolio balances increasing. We expect our business checking account product and business money market product to increase at lower balances, to increase at lower rates, as we move into the last 3 quarters of the year, the maturing digital CDs during the quarter largely relevant to the same product at similar rates. Important to note, our retention that we've experienced on CDs maturing in the last few months, March and April, have been above industry standards at 90%. Barry, I'll turn the call back to you.
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Thank you, Scott. Slide #9, the Newtek Advantage. This is our advantage in the marketplace. We believe that the Newtek Advantage will become a marketplace destination for our clients. We offer customers more than just taking their deposits with the hope that they can get a loan. When a client opens up an Advantage account, they get free unlimited document storage, they get free real-time updated web traffic analytics. If they're processing payments with us, they're going to receive real-time chargeback and batch information. They can get same-day funding. If they're a payroll client, they can make payroll directly from the business portal, the New Tech Advantage. Extremely valuable. We believe this technology that we've developed is also something that we can package white label and resell to other financial institutions within their marketplace. We are very excited about the Newtek Advantage. We believe it gives us the ability to gather more deposits from verticals like payroll, insurance and payment processes. Slide #10, artificial intelligence. AI is going to change all companies in the United States and across the world. Where businesses have the opportunity to utilize AI, it's going to be extremely beneficial. It's in NewtekOne's DNA. We're disruptors, we're entrepreneurial, but important we're prudent, but not afraid to use these types of technologies when they could really provide tremendous efficiencies. And the way the company is positioned, we're in a unique position to take advantage of these opportunities. The process of gathering data without the use of brokers, bankers, branches and BDOs is inherent to our model, utilizing that data to futuristically be able to mine the data and make decisions about which clients we should contact for various opportunities with an e-mail message or a phone call to provide additional services. To use AI to manage our…
SP
Scott Price
Analyst
Sure, Barry. Slide 22 outlines our updated guidance for the remainder of 2024. Many of the KPIs that we assumed and disclosed in our call in March remain unchanged. Our forecast assumes no change in interest rates, consistent with prior quarter, and we expect loan demand to hold in. We did widen the ranges for Q3 and Q4 in light of the soft landing the Fed is trying to pull off, again the future of interest rates being data dependent. There are 2 items I want to point out regarding our results relative to our March forecast. First, our net interest income and provision expense came in on top of our expectations. And second, our noninterest expenses for the quarter came in slightly better than we forecasted. Barry, I'll turn it over to you.
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Thank you. Slide #23. I did make some comments about the 2023 calendar year and the investments that we made. I think I've covered most of this. Once again, against a lot of headwinds in 2023, we are very pleased and proud of our performance and the fact that we could now, with a little bit less on the headwinds, be able to continue to grow the business with a forecast of $1.85 to $2.05, which we think is conservative for calendar year 2024. 2024 initiatives, to continue to grow the Newtek Advantage and increased impressions. That's going to go along with our ability to bring in commercial transaction deposits. We added about 17 heads in the commercial deposit area in Q1 2024 with another 2 coming in in April. Most of those heads are used for the back office of accepting transactional deposits, customer service, teaching people how to use the technology, making sure we're compliant, making sure we can surveil, all that stuff. So a major investment, all of these expenses are part of it. What will that lead to? Future growth in 1% commercial DDA and 3.5% commercial money market, which will come in from our payroll businesses, our merchant businesses, our lending business, which we started to get some traction towards the tail end of the first quarter 2024. You can't just be in that business without having the people, process and the technology in order to make sure we were able to do this in a compliant manner because you don't want to make a mistake in this particular early stages. I know financial people, and I happen to be one of them, so now, why can't you bring in more of this cheaper deposit money? Well, we will be. It will be. And it's…
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you, Mr. Sloane. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Crispin Love of Piper Sandler.
UA
Unknown Analyst
Analyst
This is Brad [indiscernible] for Crispin Love. Can you just remind us some of the economics on the nonconforming loans that you're earning on day 1 in terms of fees you are generating there? And how much CECL reserves are you putting up as well on these loans?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
On the alternative loan program, we historically called it nonconforming, we changed it to alternative loan program to make sure it's just better understood. Yes, you know what, I forgot to do the MD&A. I apologize. Let me answer this question, then we'll go back to Scott's MD&A. Sorry about that. So let me answer this -- your questions, and we'll go to the MD&A. So on the ALP loans, basically we're on the street today at about 3.5 points gross. We service for 100 basis points, and the loans are net to the joint venture at a price of 12%. So we're about 13% gross. We have A, B and C credits. We're 12%, 13% and 14% gross. Now regarding CECL reserves, they've done up at the holding company. So we have an estimated charge-off historically on those loans over that 3%. So given the profitability of the fees, the servicing and the funding from our joint venture partners, it does provide a generous return to NewtekOne.
UA
Unknown Analyst
Analyst
And then just following up, I know you guys mentioned on the call, but on the SBA gain on sale margins, can you speak a little more on what is cap gain on sale margins elevating even north of 11% in the first quarter, which is higher than most peers? And how is the demand for your paper? How would you expect margin to trend through 2024 in the current rate environment?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
So if you look at, say, primary competitor Live Oak who doesn't have the gain on sale margins, when you're basically originating loans through brokers and bankers, they work for the borrower. And it's much more competitive. It's much more manual. And because we're incredibly efficient, work closely with our borrowers, we're able to get better margins. We've been matching rate for 12 years. We don't cut it. We get to the borrower quickly. We get the data processed quickly. We make them an offer, and that's why our margins are better. Operator, I've got to apologize to the group. I messed up my order. So Scott was supposed to do his MD&A, and I'd like to revert back to Scott Price, if I can, before I do any more questions.
SP
Scott Price
Analyst
Yes, Barry, thanks. Real quick, I just wanted to head off the potential question. I just wanted to cover the changes in provision expense for the quarter. The provision expense is higher -- excuse me, lower as a result of the 7(a) production at the bank. We did have some first quarter charge-offs that we covered in our provision expense, but the majority of the provision expense, at least almost $3 million, was driven by higher loan balances. The remainder between provision for balances and charge-offs was some specific reserves. We feel like we're prudently reserved and are not concerned about the nonaccrual loans that we have in the portfolio. Operator, we'll turn it back to you for the next question.
OP
Operator
Operator
Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Switzer of KBW.
TS
Timothy Switzer
Analyst
My first question is, could you expand on your comments about the gain on sale premiums here? And were there certain trends in Q1 that may be elevated the premiums and margins you guys are able to receive as the forward rate expectations moved lower earlier in the quarter? And did that cause you to maybe sell more loans than you typically would to take advantage of that? And should we expect to kind of step back down a little bit in Q2 since rate expectations have moved back up?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Yes. I do appreciate the question. I think that we check the markets fairly frequently. And at the moment, I would say they're fairly stable. You could take a look at what we have for cash premium. Now cash premium is also a function of, do you have longer-dated paper or shorter-dated paper. And if you notice, despite the fact that rates have risen, prices of the SBA 7(a) paper has gone higher. And that's because there is a tremendous demand right now for floating rate coming down to favor off the short end of the curve. So forecasting the prices of the premium is not an easy task. The question that came in earlier I think is important relative to on a competitive basis, we do this business in a more efficient, quicker, frictionless manner that allows us to get a wholesome price from our client and get the business close relative to the volatility of pricing. As I mentioned previously, we're kind of in the midpoint of the 10-year range of where prices can be. And that can fluctuate from one side to another, depending upon whether you're doing 10-year paper, which trades anywhere from 109 to 112 to the 30 -- to the 25-year paper backed by commercial real estate, which could trade at 113, 114, 115 or higher. And then you're splitting a premium. So hopefully, that helps answer your question. I would just strongly suggest that you use the guidance that Scott has given on a going-forward basis to get to where you need to be.
SP
Scott Price
Analyst
Yes. And Tim, just to tack on to what Barry said, we sold in excess of what we anticipated because we generated more production. It's not a function of the market, but for production. So we are continuing to work on our business model, our operations, to put more units through the pipe, and we expect that number -- the pipe to grow so that we can produce more units. But the production this quarter is a function of demand and a function of the improvements we continue to make in efficiencies and had nothing to do with the marketplace or the pricing dynamics that you mentioned.
TS
Timothy Switzer
Analyst
And could you guys also expand on your comments around the credit performance of the portfolio? And could you maybe review how like the seasoning of an SBA portfolio trends over time as the portfolio matures? How should we expect delinquencies and NPAs to trend for the bank portfolio that has more recently originated versus the NSBF portfolio that's currently held for sale?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Yes. I think that the loss curve on a 7(a) portfolio, which we have 2 decades of experience, is at its highest point between 18 months and 40 months. You probably have -- and I used the word loss curve. That's probably the point where most of the loans would go into the fold. Based upon our accounting at the bank, you would then be marking that to market in an unrealized loss. So it's fairly current and up-to-date depending upon whether we believe these loans are noncollectible based upon the collateral or they can't come back and re-perform. I think it's important to note that when we -- and I'll let Scott talk about how we do our CECL calculation. First of all, it's a -- on the 7(a) portfolio, it's a current value provision for a future event. So we're using approximately 8% that gets discounted back. I'll let Scott go into this. But that's reevaluated every same quarter based on what we see, complicated processes, models and third-party consultants that evaluate that. That's relative to the bank's CECL reserves and where we are. And I would tell you that our CECL reserves are much higher than our competitors in this space. Scott, do you have anything to add or subtract to that?
SP
Scott Price
Analyst
No. I think you -- the only thing I'd add is that as we project out our losses, we do have probabilities of default and losses given default that we expect, right? And that curve is based on, as Barry referenced, the 20 years of history. The bank portfolio is coming up on one year old. And so to connect the dots for everybody, with credit kind of peaking for a loan at between months 24 and 40, you can expect that nonaccruals, nonperformers, past dues, have the opportunity to increase from here. That's expected and we're prudently reserved for those. So if you contrast that in the bank with more of a traditional bank accounting model versus the fair value accounting model that we have, we project out losses. So we basically -- when we fair value our loans, we project losses, we reduce cash flows for those and then we discount those back. So the losses are essentially already captured in the fair value marks, as Barry pointed out, particularly on the nonaccrual loans. And our loss rates that we're assuming on the performing portfolio are in line with the same loss rates that we use for our CECL reserves.
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Yes. And I want to give you an example of the situation. Borrower takes a loan in 2021 or 2022. It's a floating rate loan. They've now experienced several hundred basis points of what I'm going to call a rate shock. And they necessarily haven't been able to adjust to it. It may be in current months, higher for longer has put stress on this. But I got to remind you, this business owner has personally guaranteed joint and several every 20% owners. There's multiple guarantors on many of these loans. In certain cases, they've got personal assets might as well as business assets. So even though they fall behind and they're delinquent, as we work with borrowers, we have a very smart and aggressive servicing group. We'll encourage people to liquidate collateral, stay current because it's the business that's a form of repayment. It's very different than a CRE loan that's not recoursed, where if it goes upside down, okay, unless my equity come flipping the keys. Or, for that matter, a consumer loan on a car with the value of car is upside down, I'm unemployed, I have no way of coming back. So I think our 20 years' worth of experience in managing the portfolios, understanding that these are businesses with personal assets behind it, extremely important. And we do anticipate -- and I'm glad Scott brought this up. First of all, it's a brand new portfolio. So the fact that we finally have some delinquencies and some bad loans, well, we started off, they're all new loans. So of course, they're going to get worse. But this is not something that we don't have experience managing. We've managed it for 20 years, and our loan loss reserves are for the next year or 2 for the term of the loan. And we have done securitizations 12x, 13x in this particular space that are modeled on Intex that give us the data to be able to understand the scenarios of performance in this particular space. So hopefully that is also helpful. I won't argue that it's very hard for you and others to figure out what is this going to project to. You do have a management team that is very much aligned with the interest of the shareholders. Take a look at our proxy, our bonuses were for last year, see what our stock ownership is. It is important to us, it is something we've done building a business over 2 decades.
UA
Unknown Analyst
Analyst
Are you able to quantify maybe the pace of increase over the next -- I mean, if your loan portfolio, the weighted average life is less than 12 months, charge-offs don't peak until at least 24 months or so. Can you project that the pace of increase, the charge-offs, as we move over the next few years? And where does it peak? Is it at that 350 ACL mark you talked about in the press release? Or how should we think about that?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
I think you'll have approximately 70% of the charge-offs within 18 months to 40 months. Now if I would have said that prior to COVID, I would have been dead wrong. Because COVID created PPP, tax credit programs, EIDL loan. So -- but on the loss curve, the new business typically does not default early, okay? And that's when from a seasoning perspective, you're going to get -- holding everything else constant, that's when you're going to get most of the write-downs.
SP
Scott Price
Analyst
And just to tack on to that, Tim, we would expect the charge-offs to kind of level out and stop increasing if all economic conditions are equal.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Bryce Rowe of B. Riley.
BR
Bryce Rowe
Analyst
Sorry to belabor the call here, but I do want to try to get a couple of questions in. Number one, I mean, I think you guys alluded to this in some of the prepared remarks, but expenses have gone up as you kind of built out the infrastructure. Is there any maybe like nonrecurring in this level of expenses, whether it be in the salary and benefits line or in that professional services line? Just trying to get a good feel for how the expense -- the operating expenses are going to run obviously acknowledging that the balance sheet is going to continue to grow. But just trying to kind of calibrate what the expense growth might look like.
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
I think price -- and I'll let Scott finish up on this. This year, as a percentage of revenue, we're probably going to have the peak amount -- well, we hope this will be the peak amount of expenses as we continue to build our processes, continue to make sure that we've got all the right things required for a scalable technology-enabled bank to compete in a different way in the marketplace. So we're hopeful that we start to get the benefits of operating leverage in 2025 and beyond. But we think if you look at all the bodies we're bringing in here, the software, the consultants to help us make sure we're doing exactly what we need to do, we -- I talked about headwinds in 2023. They're a little less, but still fairly strong in 2024. That's factored into our EPS forecast. And we think we'll get better margins next year in 2025. Scott, anything to add or subtract to that?
SP
Scott Price
Analyst
Yes. Bryce, it's a good question, and I want to reiterate what Barry just said in that we do have an expense forecast, and it is included in our guidance. And so we assure you that the forecast includes the current quarter and future quarter expenses. I will say, just to add on to what Barry said and maybe slightly modify it, we will have increased expenses from here. But the returns that we're going to be earning are going to definitely outweigh any expense increases we have. So I don't want you to think that this was a surprise to us. As I said earlier, we're slightly better than where we forecasted. I'd point out that -- and reiterate what Barry said, we are continuing to invest in our operations teams, whether that be in lending, whether that be in deposit operations, whether that be in some of our fee generating businesses. We had headcount increases across all of those. And we're investing for the future. We're investing for higher margins in the way of rolling out our business deposit products so that we can ensure that we comply and we keep in the middle of the road with respect to regulation. And then I'd point out that there are some seasonal aspects to this. We did have payroll tax resets this quarter. We had one month of merit increases that went in. So we'll -- you'll see a follow-through increase in the future. And then we also are looking at a pretty outsized performance year in terms of EPS growth. And we're -- in order to be able to keep this institution operating like a much larger institution than it is, we're going to have to make sure that we are competing in the talent work. And so we factored all that into the forecast. This is not a surprise to me. It's not a surprise to Berry. And I think we're on top of it. As it relates to one-time items, I would say that there was a slight bump quarter-over-quarter in professional. Most of that was due to our annual audit. But we're rationalizing our expenses as it pertains to audits, financial accounting, compliance, and expect that we will not have a repeat going forward.
BR
Bryce Rowe
Analyst
And then maybe a question about kind of capital structure on a consolidated basis. I mean you all were talking about nice deposit growth at the bank. Just -- and you're also talking about increases in the alternative loan program and assume those will kind of make their way over to the holding company's balance sheet as opposed to sitting at the bank when it's all said and done. Can you talk about how you're going to fund that at the holding company level because I assume the deposits have to stay at the bank?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Yes, they do. And I think, Bryce, that we have expectations of being able to use debt up at the holding company. We do have room to be able to do that and that's where we'll be able to fund our growth in addition to creating new joint ventures to be able to fund the alternative loan program business. The capital is primarily needed for that and not much else at this point in time.
BR
Bryce Rowe
Analyst
And then, Barry, when I look at the balance sheet that you lay out on a consolidated basis, and you've got several different buckets of loans, a couple of which are held for sale, I think we can all identify what is held at the bank and held for investment bucket, amortized cost. But will those migrate eventually into the balance sheet of the joint venture? Just trying to identify what each of those buckets actually are.
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Yes. And Bryce, it's a good question. I think that our goal, sans the alternative loan program, is to have all the lending done in the bank, all right? Very little, we have some legacy loans still at the holding company that will pay off or get sold, or file for construction. But for the most part, the only thing that would be at the holdco in lending would be ALP, and the rest of the activity will be down at the bank where we get lower cost of funding and obviously better leverage.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Nolan at Ladenburg Thalmann.
CN
Christopher Nolan
Analyst
Thank you for including the detail in the asset quality in this quarter. Very helpful information. Barry, from your perspective, where do you see the bank sector going in general?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
It's a tough industry. I'm just going to be frank with you and this is from somebody that just got into it. So I always try to answer honestly and transparently. It's an industry currently that right now, it's feasted on low-cost deposits. And it's far easier to move money today from bank to bank and doing it on your phone. And even corporate treasurers are realizing, I only need to keep a couple of bucks in my checking account and I can move the rest of it into a money market account. I can just get the money back and forth so that the deposit side is where banks have made money, not on the asset side. And what happened in '08, '09 is the regulators in the banking industry said, "Okay, we've just got to really tighten up on the risk profile for credit." So everyone's piled into the small bucket of car loans, residential mortgage loans, CRE loans, C&I loans that don't have a lot of margin. So I think I'm talking about an interest rate I just got into. It's start going to be an easy industry to make a lot of money in.
CN
Christopher Nolan
Analyst
I was thinking more along lines sort of where do you see the healthy industry in terms of asset quality and so forth, given there are a lot of concerns about commercial real estate in general?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Okay. I think that the industry will be able to get its capital. I do not believe short rates are going to remain here for that much longer, and that's going to reduce the pressure on CRE assets, which is really where -- right now, there's the 2 problems with the industry relative to health and that would be CRE, and that's very much rate driven. And the other aspect of it is obviously asset liability management because as long as bills are yielding 5%, there's going to be more pressure to migrate money into government guaranteed money market funds versus bank account.
OP
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Steve Moss of Raymond James.
SM
Stephen Moss
Analyst
Barry, you mentioned -- or maybe it might have been Scott, that with regard to SBA originations here that you were kind of like, I guess, what’s the effect of driving efficiencies. Given your guidance here, holding it steady after a strong quarter in my mind on the SBA origination front, just kind of curious if maybe internally, are you at capacity in the short to intermediate term for your SBA originations? Just kind of curious as to why that number is being revised higher, to put it that way.
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Yes. No, Steve, I'm looking for the loan pipeline for 7(a). And it's up on pre-qual 15%, in underwriting 54%. Now the accrued pending closing is pretty flat. That's because we're becoming more efficient, and we're getting the loans in and out quickly. But no, we are not at capacity. We've gotten more alliance partners that are realizing we could help put them in the business, help them make loans either for their license or ours, and the business model of us using alliance relationships and getting referrals continues to grow and outperform the BDO broker and banker model.
SP
Scott Price
Analyst
The only thing I'd tack on to that, Steve, and it's a good question, the -- where we are in terms of soft landing, no soft landing, what's going to happen, it feels a little bit early to increase our production for the year in light of that uncertainty. So we decided that was the most prudent course of action. Could there be upside? Sure, but depending on where the economy, it could easily go the other way. So that was the thought process.
SM
Stephen Moss
Analyst
And then in terms of -- just circling back to the seasoning of the portfolio, I hear you guys in terms of the 8% loss content discounted back. Maybe just kind of thinking about it, delinquencies, if I look at them here on a trailing 12-month basis from loan balances around roughly 9%, call it, curious how we think about as things season and you hit whether it's the 18- to 40-month time range, what is kind of like that peak delinquency number you guys expect, kind of the peak nonperforming type number in terms of the originations or the portfolio?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
I mean you could see what I'll call, the currency rate on that portion of the portfolio. By the way, that's going to be blended in with the AAA quality loans that banks normally do that have got low margins, et cetera. But I mean, you could see the currency rate at 90 plus or minus. We hope it doesn't get there, but that's not inconceivable. But that's over time. And I would tell you for doing this for 20 years on lower volumes in the earlier phases of our life, we've seen it. That doesn't mean that you're going to have extraordinary charge-offs. I think it's just trying to say that if you do see it, you don't need to head for the balcony or the wind to focus because the loans are purse-guarantee, there's collateral behind it, and it's within the realm of what these charge-offs are. The other thing too, Steve, is when you're looking at the charge-offs, these are spread out. It's a big number, right? But these are spread out. These are not bank loans that are doing 2 years, 3 years or 5 years. These are spread out over fairly lengthy periods of time, and we're actually putting new business on an old business on. Once again, we've got all the models after 20 years of doing this to be able to really analyze the static pool to make sure that we've got the right reserves against these loans.
SM
Stephen Moss
Analyst
And then just one more question on the business check-in and business money market you guys are rolling out here. Just kind of curious did you share any thoughts on internal targets you may have for those products? Or how you're thinking about that performance over the next 12 months?
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Scott, do you want to share some of those numbers if you have them?
SP
Scott Price
Analyst
Yes, Steve. So we expect to roll out in earnest, we have run a pilot with some select customers. We've got $20 million of balances, I believe, as at quarter end. We believe that we can generate $150 million of business deposits and that could be on the low side. The high side could be, $300 million is not inconceivable. What I'd say is the real question that we're going to be grappling with, as we get to know how this product performs with our customer base, is what kind of retention we have on those funds. And that's something that we're going to be learning as we go along. We've certainly put our best foot forward in estimating how much a typical customer will retain in our bank. But we believe that, that is our key to profitability improvement going forward, to Barry's point, offering products and services to small businesses what we do. We invest in America. And we're confident that the innovation of the American business person is going to continue, and we want to offer products and services to enable them as much as possible to succeed. We will have features with our -- with this product that we believe will be competitive, particularly on price. Certainly, we don't have the same budget as some of the big guys do with slick apps and interfaces, et cetera. But we believe price is where we can compete, and we can make -- we can give business owners opportunities to work in their business instead of on their business. So that's what we believe we're going to offer with this product, like I said, anywhere from $150 million to $300 million, plus or minus. And so we're going to see how it plays out, and we'll be updating the market as we move forward.
OP
Operator
Operator
This does now conclude our question-and-answer period. I would like to pass it back over to Barry Sloane for closing remarks.
BS
Barry R. Sloane
Analyst
Well, we certainly appreciate everyone's attendance, the thoroughness of the questions. We've obviously tried to work hard to condense it, but there's a lot of information that, obviously, the marketplace wants. We want to make sure that you have that. And feel free to e-mail or call with any other questions you might have. But once again, thank you for your attention and your thoughtful questions. We appreciate it. Thank you very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect.