Wesley Edens
Analyst · Evercore.
It's actually really simple. So, what we're assuming in this is a base cost of gas of $2.50 on an offshore basis, $0.75 to liquefy and operating costs and $0.25 cents for the marine and OpEx. So, it does not take into account the capital expenditure. And so, that's why I quoted as saying, at $3.50, we're basically producing $150 million in margin on a $500 million capital base. Right? So, that's a very simple way of doing. If we then apply financing to it, other things, I like to look at things on an unleveraged basis. I think it makes things simpler, it makes it harder to get confused. And I think, frankly, when you look at those three pieces, $2.50 and $0.75 and $0.25, the $2.50 may well end up being a very high estimate. Remember offshore, where the stranded gas is, a lot of times it is a derivative of oil activity. So, people are drilling for oil, there's a lot of associated gas that comes along with it. And especially when you're in deepwater, that is not an asset, but it's a liability. And so, that gas is reinjected in many cases, or it is flared, which is of course a horrible environmental risk. And of course, they're also just wasting the asset, basically. So, it may well be that we can actually do a lot better than this. And so, we use a range of $3 to $4. But I think that, as we get into this – and for people that are listening on the phone that have gas resources, give us a call. We've already had a number of people call us. But if you've got you know gas in your business and you'd like to talk to us about it, we think would be very interested to do so. I think the jack-up rig is a great tool for shallow water. So, it always wants you to access pre-processed molecules that come through pipelines without additional CapEx, that's great. The offshore, the deepwater is where perhaps the greater opportunities are in the semi-submersible, which are another form of marine infrastructure similar to the jack-up rig, but suitable for kind of deep water solutions. It may really be the tool that goes along with that. So, this is the top of the first inning in terms of the development of this as a business line. I think there are many, many opportunities, but the unit economics are actually really straightforward. So, $2.50, $0.75 and $0.25, that's our base case. And I think we've got a lot of room for improvement beyond that.