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New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 1, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. And welcome to the NFE Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Brad McGill Management Director and Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Brad McGill

Analyst

Thank you Justin. Good morning everybody and welcome to New Fortress Energy Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded and will be available by replay until March 8. We plan to wrap [Ph] once our Q4 2021 Investor Presentation that we released this morning. The presentation is posted on our website and will remain available after today’s call. The presentation includes a series of important disclosures related to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. We encourage participants to review these important disclosures in addition to the description of risk factors contained in our SEC filings. Joining me here today are Wes Edens, CEO and Chairman of the Board and Chris Guinta, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining today's call our managing directors, Andrew Dete, and Kasciandro Senem, as well as Ken Nicholson, and Patrick Hughes, the Chief Executive and Chief Commercial Officers of our Hydrogen business NFE Zero Parks. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Wes.

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Great. Thanks very much, Brad. And welcome everyone. As usual, we have posted to the website, a deck that we'll be referring to as we flip through. We have a lot of material to go through today. And we'll try and do so quickly and get to questions here in short order. So start with page number four. So first, the results. Obviously, record quarter for us $334 million, and EBITDA for the fourth quarter in 2021. Full year 2021 $605 million. The business has grown and matured dramatically. And this really does mark the end of the beginning of us as a company. Eight years ago, we started the company have been a development company as we've been developing our terminals and portfolio downstream assets. The financial results mirror that, so full year in 2019, adjusted EBITDA negative $115 million, as we were investing in our business, full year 2020 basically, breakeven $33 million, and then $605 million this year. And very importantly, we are poised we believe to be very, very profitable in the future. So our forecast for 2022 is one plus billion dollars. We think there's a substantial amount of upside of that number, roughly 85% of that result is baked essentially already has some of the things worked out as planned. So we're here on March 1, we have 10 months left in the year, we have lots and lots and lots of opportunities in front of us. And so there's lots of growth there. Page number five, the -- as I said we started the business eight years ago from a blank piece of paper. And it's interesting to see how it has really evolved. And now the architecture of the business, to me is actually quite clear. We began the business by beginning…

Andrew Dete

Analyst

Thanks, Wes. Hey, everyone, nice to be talking with you. Again, I'm actually on page nine. So a bit of a scorecard here for our business downstream in 2021. A totally transformational year for us. So on the left side, Acquired Hygo for 3.1 billion in GMLP for $1.9 billion. Both announced in January of last year and closed in April. Mexico terminal came online in July. We started flowing gas to the CFE power plants and our contract with CFE there in Baja California. The Sergipe Power Plant is now fully operational, and we've had almost 4000 plus run hours, consumed almost over 30 TBtu well and [Indiscernible] taking over Sergipe. We signed a 15-year 30 TBtu supply agreement with Alunorte, the refining subsidiary of Norsk Hydro which is co-located with our Barcarena terminal, and is the largest alumina refinery outside of China. And then we've made significant construction progress on our Barcarena and Santa Catarina terminals both are expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022, both with huge associated LNG markets. And so when we think about our progress, as Wes mentioned on the Hygo and GMLP transactions, we took two terminals in Barcarena and Santa Catarina that were not finished permitting. We completed the final permitting. We negotiated and started an EPC contract and kind of nearing the end of construction of the offshore terminal. So we've made great progress on those terminals and we're very excited about the commercial opportunities in both those places. On the right side, we've read a little bit of a scorecard. So in Q4 2.9 million gallons a day up from about 1.8 in the same quarter last year. We have 65 total contracts; 15-year weighted average life and our NPV of the revenue in those contracts is…

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Great, thanks. To leaders of the gas discussion I think it's actually, it's good to give a little bit of context to the bigger picture on the energy transition side. There are two somewhat conflicting themes that are present when you when you think of the world and energy transition. One and one that we are very focused on is that energy poverty in various forms is very real. And so I always use the example because I think it's a meaningful one. People in Jamaica use 10% as much electricity per capita as people in the United States do. People in Kenya use 10%, as much electricity as people in Jamaica do. So, people in East Africa use in a year, what all of us in this room use in about three days. So that's a, that's a very, very real issue. And so you can't really have a discussion about energy transition, without at least first acknowledging that many, many people around the globe are under electrified, and that has significant implications for economic growth, for healthcare for education, all kinds of different aspects. We're very focused about that. And so while we want to talk about a very, very meaningful energy transition to a fossil free future, at the same time, we have to acknowledge that we have real energy poverty that exists and so that, those are the markets that we're focused on. The second main issue, of course, is that climate change is real. And decarbonization is not a good idea. It's a, it's a mandate that we all have. And so we need to manage those two things at the same time. And I think that people that are on extremists on either side of the equation really do miss the point of what…

Kasciandro Senem

Analyst

Thank you Wes. Good morning, everyone. This is a simple chart, which is pretty much what all the traders look at every day to transact. So you can see that LNG prices are not below $30 until the end of the winter 2023. And after that for the rest of the year, it's like close to $20. So it's a severe market dislocation as we see. And by looking at that, we design our strategy for contracting LNG. So going to page 17, we want to show the good news that we successfully executed our strategy contracting LNG to match our client’s needs. We increased our portfolio by more than 200%. Since the beginning of 2021, we now have a portfolio of 2.9 million tons, with 2.2 contracted in the market and 0.7 million tons to be produced by our Fast LNG starting in 2023. We have no need for LNG from the high price to spot market to meet our client’s needs. And all the focus we applied to increase our portfolio in 2021, we also lead us to quickly conclude the Fast LNG 2 which we expect to have taken the full 1.4 million tons of capacity. The efforts also led us to advance negotiations for other long term LNG supply agreements. And we expect that both our initiatives the Fast LNG and the long term contracting from the market will be concluded in Q2 2022. These will allow us to have a base portfolio of around 4 million tons to 5 million tons of LNG per year, and it will be ready to support our downstream airports in the high growth markets that Andrew just presented. On slide 18, now, I want to bring additional color to the Fast LNG commercial arrangements. We believe there are two…

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Great. And thanks, Kasciandro. If you look at page 20, we wanted to put some simple math to what market volumes could mean to us in the market like this. So the production of our first facility creates for us what 63 TBtu is, that’s the units of production that we have. If you use the price of $20 in the market, and actually the price today is north of $30 in the market. We've used a price of $20 in the market, and a cost of $5, you'd have profits of $15 MMBtu times 63 it will be incremental revenue for just one unit of a billion dollars. And so really the way that we think of it, the way you should think of it is the unit that costs us $650 million to $700 million in total, that earns a very, very good return as just a tolling matters. So we earned a very good market return for just leasing our equipment to counterparty like ENI, that's one business model. Of the second business model is, do it for your own account. You have uncommitted volumes, you have market volumes, you can then either sell into your customer businesses on the downstream side, or you can sell them in the marketplace if there's a disruption. When you look back at the last 10 years, there's been a handful of periods of disruption. We believe that these periods are going to perhaps intensify, but are certainly going to continue. There'll be normality, but there will be disruptions, these uncommitted volumes can be incredibly valuable. And so one unit billion dollars billion and a half dollars, actually if it was the market prices up today have huge implications for the upside of the business. With that I'll turn over the hydrogen, Ken.

Kenneth Nicholson

Analyst

Great. Thanks Wes. Good morning, everyone. Happy to provide an update on our Zero Parks business. We think investors will soon appreciate as an industry leader in the clean hydrogen space. Page 22 what set it I mean, the opportunity is huge for Zero Parks. It's a huge problem for the world. 51 billion tons of global CO2 emissions. 75% of those emissions come from three primary sectors and we're talking to customers in all these sectors; industrial power and transportation. I would say the opportunity to NFE is twofold; one, international customers leveraging and fees, logistics and international customer base as well as domestically where we have folks like industrial party steel mills that are looking to replace fossil fuels for heat, power plants looking to blend hydrogen into coal boilers to reduce emissions and transportation companies like railroads looking to use hydrogen fuel cell local motors and shipping companies converting to hydrogen and ammonia as fuel. Shipping to – I’m sorry so turning to page 23. This just gives an update on our business plan and the path that we are pursuing. You know, first and foremost, we’re identifying and securing the best sites in the U.S. to build clean hydrogen production facilities. The key characteristics that we focus on are one, sites that are close to and large and diverse sets of emitters and industrial end users. Two, have access to long term affordable renewable power that's critical when producing green hydrogen. Renewable Power is an essential component to producing hydrogen in a clean manner. And finally, three have access to superior logistics pipelines, railroads, deep water ports for setting up a low cost supply chain for domestic and international markets. We're very close on our first site. I'm going to talk about that in just a…

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Thanks very much, Ken. Good morning, everyone. Before we dive in, let me take a quick moment and orientate everyone to our new and more fitting measure of financial performance, which is adjusted EBITDA. In our earnings release out yesterday and further outlined in our 10K. The adjusted EBITDA measure better reflects the cash flows of our business. In order to arrive at adjusted EBITDA, we use our total segment operating margin less or regular cash SG&A. In using adjusted EBITDA, we can properly reflect the cash flows from our non-controlled subsidiaries, like CELSE and the Golar Hilli FLNG asset. So on our report card on the left side of the page 28; we had record revenues record adjusted EBITDA and record net income for both the fourth quarter and the full year 2021. As we look forward to 2022, these results should increase as we have full year contributions from GMLP and Hygo mergers as well as the new terminals coming online in Brazil and Nicaragua. And this will grow in further in 2023 as we deploy our FLNG assets. An important result of these improving financial measures is the general credit quality of NFE. As most of you know, we were upgraded to the BB minus with stable outlook from S&P in November. This is a major achievement for NFE and is an important step for us on our path to being an investment grade business, which allows us to source cheaper, more efficient forms of capital and provides increased flexibility with suppliers. Turning your attention to slide 29. In our summary financial results, revenue for the quarter was $808 million, and over $1.7 billion for the year ended December 31. Adjusted EBITDA was $334 million for the fourth quarter and over $600 million for the full year.…

Brad McGill

Analyst

Thanks Chris. We’ll go ahead and take it into Q&A Justin from here.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Devin McDermott

Analyst

Hey good morning Thanks for taking my question. So I wanted to ask on Fast LNG. And first on Fast LNG 1. I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how we should think about the economics or potential margin to NFE from these tolling agreements. And then also talk about some of the remaining steps to development, including how much CapEx needs to be spent, how is that split between ENI and NFE?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Sure, so we don't disclose specific terms into our contracts, including with this, but I can just give you a little bit of a brief run through of it. Leasing agreements for this, there's a base level fee that we are charging, which is a tolling fee, which is fairly constant over time. In addition to scouting [ph] under so we actually are taking half of the volumes of the of the production, those two things for us combined, we think gives us a very, very good return. So, our return thresholds as you know are kind of mid-teens, mid-20s, mid-30s depending on what the risk profile is. Obviously given that this is a investment grade counterparty and a very long term contract, it's on the lower end of that, but it's still very meaningful returns and very stable long term returns. What it does for us, in addition to providing returns, it provides great finance ability for the entire program, as we now have long term cash flows to put against our development of other FLNG units. And that helps us to develop these things in a very, very capital efficient way. So I'm sorry if I’m not answering the question directly, but we just don't think that answer they'll be specific about any, any one contract is a good idea, and we're not going to change that here. So…

Devin McDermott

Analyst

Yes, understood And then maybe I can just follow up with the question on the second best LNG, I think in the release, talked about taking it FID on that. And then in the comments just now talked about having the agreements, they're finalized, I think next quarter, what was the message? Are you envisioning a similar tolling structure for that or any additional detail you can talk about for projects and what it looks like?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Yes, we are. The second FLNG is as we said, we're FID. Interesting question so that the marine infrastructure that we're using in the first FLNG are jackup rigs. And so we bought a handful of those for roughly $30 million, so basically a scrap value. And that's what we cleaned off and, and they're just in fact, that process is just about done. And we'll start the installation and the liquefaction modules and that will turn into the units we then ship off to Congo here, run the first year. For the second one, we actually recently agreed to buy two Savant [ph] ships. So they're deep water drilling ships, giant ships, big cylindrical ships that are great for both deep water and shallow water applications, big deck space thing, 100,000 square feet, very, very heavy loads that they can support. And also, at kind of bargain rates, I think we paid for the two of them, $22 million for ships that cost individually, I think north of $600 to build so obviously, we’re repurposing them. So we're about using them for their, their profile, we think it's actually a great utilization of this, because it does give us the flexibility to either be in shallow water or in deep water. So in both cases, it's great. Cost for both of these is roughly the same, nameplate for the second facility, 1.4 million tons, which is what we were looking to achieve, we actually are in the middle of, significant conversations both on the tolling side, because there's a lot of interest in tolling these assets, as well as looking at market opportunities. As Kasciandro mentioned Mauritania, which is a real focus of ours, there's also a handful of other places that we think are, are very interesting that we're deeply in negotiations as well. So, one thing I will say is that I think that the program for us will continue to expand. I believe that FLNG in some form or another will become very much of a standard for offshore production around the world so much as you think of the -- our partners and friends of Golar, they were really the pioneers in converting ships into FSRUs for terminal use. And that was a very novel approach. 15 years ago, it's now the standard approach in the world. I think that repurposed marine infrastructure with modules, such as we're using an FLNG 1, FLNG 2, and then FLNG 3 through 10, or whatever it ends up being will be something that is very, very standard around the world. And so we think the IP that's being developed here for us, will allow us to be a big, big participant in that market, as it grows here substantially over the next few years.

Devin McDermott

Analyst

Great, thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

And thank you. And our next question comes from Sean Morgan from Evercore. Your line is now open.

Sean Morgan

Analyst

Hey, thanks. So just to follow up on because I think investors are pretty excited about the vertical integration [Indiscernible]. I just want to understand a little better than any field off the coast of Africa, that's a proven reserve that are currently completely undeveloped. And also, as part of that, what would it take, what are the next steps to sort of moving this from the HOA category, the heads of agreement category to the firm contract, what needs to happen?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

The Marine 12 field exists is in production right now. It's a very, very substantial find, and production by ENI. ENI is in kind of every spec, the standard bearer for oil and gas production, around Africa. And as Kasciandro said, in addition to being a, an EMP company, they actually are perhaps the most sophisticated offshore LNG producers in the world. They’ve built liquefaction themselves in the ground, they built liquefaction in the forms of a ship. So having them sign up essentially for our technology, our solution we think is a great endorsement and an appropriate one for what we've accomplished. That's, that's great. They will make a substantial incremental investment in the field, they will actually then produce more oil and associated gas, that's the gas that we will be then treating and turning into LNG on the facility and we've had tremendous amounts of interaction with them over the course of the last handful of months to get to a place to sign an HOA which we just announced. Their boards I understand has approved the capital investment they've made in the field. So this is very much of a go-zone for both of us. And now it's just simply a matter of documenting that properly getting to the final definitive documents which we expect to happen in the next 30 days or so, but I would say from our perspective this is a committed transaction. And I think from theirs as well, and we fully expect it to result in a definitive deal done here in the very near term.

Sean Morgan

Analyst

Okay, thanks Wes. And then switching to the Regas side. We talked a lot in the past about Ireland and the volume opportunity from a Regas perspective is large. And I know it's early days. But with all the changes happening and sort of the European energy, I guess, stack related to what's happening with Russia in Ukraine. Have you gotten any feelers from Ireland, about maybe changing appetite or interest in pursuing a little bit more independent natural gas sourcing, as opposed to relying currently on England, as you've talked about in the past?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Yes. Well, I’ll ask Andrew to give you a brief update there. The answer is transfers. There's a tremendous amount of interest. But the project itself is one that we have been pursuing for, a long, long period of time, we are actually in final stages of the Planning Commission, which is the regulatory body that we're dealing with. We are optimistic, very optimistic that we'll get to a successful conclusion and get to one in the short term. What I think was a good idea, several years ago, we started on this is now become kind of a very, very good mandate in effect, because not only is cost of energy, a big issue for people ever, but energy security is a very, very big issue. The bulk of Ireland's gas from outside the country comes from a single pipeline. This will be a second source of supply to the country. And that's obviously very meaningful diversification at this point. And so while we've gone through a very long intensive process to get to this point, we feel like we're very close to the end of the commercial side. Andrew, I know you're lost on.

Andrew Dete

Analyst

Yes, just I'll be brief. Thanks for the question. But the nuts and bolts that I think we've probably underplayed our 600 megawatts of power there as well. I think it's a market that's showed everything. And I think that power plant is going to be kind of extremely valuable to be a real dispatchable resource with LNG. And then I would say, I think has changed as we always had a real advantage on the transport cost and being an LNG terminal, as opposed to gas coming in from the U.K. I think Wes pointed out what's different now, which is the premium for doing kind of long term off-take contracts. So people obviously now are much ours worried about prices, they are about kind of security of supply. And I think that is really going to kind of dictate our strategy in Ireland, which is going to basically, I think show up in all kinds of facets of that long term contract, short term trading. And then of course, power and so very excited to get the planning board approval there and start to talk more about our commercial strategy.

Sean Morgan

Analyst

Okay, thanks, Andrew and thanks, Wes.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Ben Nolan from Stifel. Your line is now open.

Benjamin Nolan

Analyst

Yes, thanks. Hey, good morning and congrats on the result. I wanted to talk a little bit about the open or the net long gas that you have at the moment, obviously, that was very impactful on the fourth quarter. Can maybe talk about sort of think clearly international LNG prices remain elevated. Can you maybe talk about how we should expect that to impact your profitability and your sort of net long positions for the next quarter two, or however long, let's say a quarter or two?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Sure Ben. So well, thanks for the question. The focus of our business is to with respect to the core business and our customer side, is largely match customer demand with our supply on the gas side. And that's what we have done. We did manage to have a modestly long bias as we went into this, and through a lot of actually hard work of Kasciandro and his groups, and there's obviously a lot of logistics involved, and a lot of a lot of moving assets and volumes around. And with a modest amount of long positions, we actually realized some very good returns. And that's, that's part of the good news that we had in the fourth quarter. The -- our forecast for next year, as I said is 1 billion plus and with respect to first the billion, as I said, a large percentage of that is already basically baked. Within that we've got customer volumes, we have our portfolio gas, we have our logistics costs, and so we know with a high degree of certainty that we were going to achieve something very close to that with no incremental growth. And so that is the kind of bond like downside that I would describe of the structure of the business. On the flip side, and this is particularly true, starting in 2023, when we have FLNG volumes, we have then the incremental upside of being able to take open positions and convert them into market cargoes to the extent that the market is favorable, and that's what can lead to these very extraordinary, upsides. I mean, I think it really is a case of we're headed towards a billion plus this year, a billion and a half plus next year, on the base case. And as…

Benjamin Nolan

Analyst

Okay and there should I guess my point is that there should continue to be an element of that in the first and second quarter here. It that very similar to the way it was in the fourth quarter?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Yes, very much so.

Benjamin Nolan

Analyst

Okay. And then for my second question. On the FLNG unit, you guys are tentatively taking half of the off-take here on market base rates. I was wondering if you could just maybe talk to sort of what is the basis for those rates. What's the -- I mean, you're primarily buying everything in Henry Hub. Obviously, this is not anywhere close to Henry Hub. So are you just buying it sort of a TTF or an oil based? How exactly should we think about the math on that?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Yes, it's actually a blend of all these three things. We really constructed with ENI a portfolio approach to actually look at the three men indices with Henry Hub, TTF and JKM, and try to construct a purchase price for us to buy on something that approximates market. Today, those would be at attractive levels, but they're really intended to be market prices in general. So it's not above the market or below the market, it's intended to be at the market. That was the nature of what we're trying to do. The significant aspect of them that I would say is we're buying very long term volumes without posting any incremental credit, right. So that's, that's, that's our goal, by the way, as a company. So we've gone from a single B Company to a BB Company. We think we are well on our way to be an investment grade company. That is very important in a nuanced way in terms of accessing long term supply without posting egregious amounts of credit. And so that's, that's a big, big, you know, component of our strategy. That's why we want to become investment grade, and we will become investment grade, in our view. And that's what gives us the access to supply because one of the nuances of this businesses that as you build this up from scratch, having access to long term supply dictates that you post a lot of credit. And that's not, that's not a great strategy. So we've, we've done, I think, a very good job of kind of bootstrapping our way to a place where we're within line of sight of being investment grade. This is another version of that, where we're basically taking off long term volumes without posting credit at market prices, which we think is a great, great benefit.

Benjamin Nolan

Analyst

Perfect, I appreciate it. Thanks for taking my question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Craig Shere from Tuohy Brothers. Your line is now open.

Craig Shere

Analyst

Good morning, congratulations on a strong quarter and excellent guidance this year. So I want to focus a little on the FLNG some more. So you'd mentioned, who knows, three to 10 projects or whatever may come. So my first question is, how rapid do you think the pace of FIDs could be? Could you because of market conditions not worry at all about your downstream needs for now, and be happy with creating low cost opportunities on the upstream the benefit far exceeds for now your downstream own needs and maybe have three or four FIDs by the end of the year or early next. And then my other question or comment, I'm taken by the point that you just acquired, literally floating assets to put this design on to one of the arguments against your jackup rig approach was that it doesn't fit for every coast in the world. It sounds like what you're doing now can pretty much any location in the world where stranded reserves and get to a coast. Can you implement that at the same pace as whatever 20 months plus as what you're planning on your jackups?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Sure to answer the questions, yes. Right. So and we won't have the view that there were multiple sources of marine infrastructure which were suitable. So the jackup rigs is the first place that we started, we think it's entirely appropriate and the right one for the Congo application. It would be in other shallow water applications. The Savant ships became available, we think that they are tremendous pieces of infrastructure, they're incredibly stable. They're designed to actually be deployed on doing a fairly technical solution, which is drilling in very, very deep water and rough water. So they're entirely capable of actually being hooked up to a gas source and liquefying that same location. So we feel great about that. In terms of the FIDs, so the we won FID on our second FLNG, we've got the Savant rig, which we're going to basically clean up and use that and deploy the equipment in a very similar way to what we're doing on FLNG 1. We do think that there are many, many uses for our products around the world and having flexibility both to be an equipment provider to some of the big oil companies that have got gas reserves; we think that's a good profile. It provides good long term stable cash flows as are great relationships as ENI equivalent and there are others that are there similar to that. And then also looking for motion opportunities. And I said we've identified the one. We did sign the MoUs as Kasciandro said at the end of the year with the Mauritania, folks, and we've been there recently, we're very optimistic about that as a project. But there's a handful of other things that we think are out there as well. I mean, my general, pessimism about the…

Craig Shere

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And thank you. And our next question comes from Greg Lewis from BTIG. Your line is now open. Greg, if your line is on mute, could you please unmute it? Again, Greg if your line is on mute, could you please unmute it?

Brad McGill

Analyst

Justin, I think we might have lost Greg. So I might just go ahead and hand it back over to Wes and make our comments.

Operator

Operator

And I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Wes Edens for closing remarks.

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Great. Thanks everyone for dialing in and say it's great to give you an update on the quarter and the year and the prospects you’ve got for the future. It's a remarkable business that is in the right place at the right time in our view. So it should be a very interesting year. Thanks very much. Look forward to talking to you soon.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.