Earnings Labs

NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, May 27, 2016

$15.64

+8.01%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2016 NGL Energy Partners LP Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today program is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's program Mike Krimbill, CEO. Please go ahead.

Mike Krimbill

Analyst

Thank you. And thank you everyone for joining us, we delayed a couple of minutes so everyone would have a chance to call in, so I think we've got everyone connected. So this conference call includes forward-looking statements and information, while NGL Energy Partners believes that its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be a no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the projections, anticipated results or other expectations included in the forward-looking statements. These factors include the prices and market demand for natural gas, liquids, crude oil, level of production of crude oil and natural gas, effect of weather conditions on demand for oil, natural gas and to gas liquids, and the ability to successfully identify and consummate strategic acquisitions at purchase prices that are accretive to financial results and to successfully integrate acquired assets and businesses. Other factors that could impact these forward-looking statements are described in risk factors in the Partnership’s annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and other public filings and press releases. NGL Energy Partners undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Please also see the Partnership’s website at www.nglenergypartners.com under Investor Relations for reconciliations of differences between any non-GAAP measures discussed on this conference call to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. So, we'll get down to business. I would like to turn it over to Trey to begin and then will open for questions.

Trey Karlovich

Analyst

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, and thank you all for joining us. Before I dive into our fourth quarter and fiscal 2016 results, I wanted to cover few big picture events and transactions which have occurred over the past several months in relation to NGL. These transactions have strengthened our balance sheet and liquidity position and have improved our platform for growth going forward. Our strategy has been to reduce our committed capital requirements, decrease our debt and leverage, increase liquidity and show to the market that we have access to capital. Our focus has been to reduce the yield on our bonds first, which we believe translates over to our equity price improvement. We execute several transactions over the past several months to accomplish this and we believe we have provided ourselves the ability for the Company to continue to pursue its strategic objectives like the completion of Grand Mesa and other opportunities around our footprint. First I want to cover the TLP ArcLight transactions. I think it is important to remind everyone that the sale of the GP interest to ArcLight for $350 million will have very little, if any, impact to the day-to-day recurring operations of our refined products segment. If anything, we expect to see some additional opportunities through our relationship with ArcLight, TLP and Gulf Oil. ArcLight acquired the general partner of a mature MLP in the high splits with a low yield and excess distribution coverage perfect for their potential drop down strategy. This transaction greatly benefited both companies. We retained all of the customer supply agreements and line space. We will continue to utilize the TransMontaigne LLC name, but we would be completely separated from TLP other than our arrangements to lease terminals and storage from them along the Colonial and Plantation pipelines…

Mike Krimbill

Analyst

Yes, I'd just like to provide a little more clarity on growth is obviously we're very focused on reducing leverage and increasing common unit coverage. We've said previously, we don’t anticipate being in the M&A market any big way, but that said, we've given a range 200 to 300 million on growth capital, the 200 clearly funds Grand Mesa. We have the Houma Terminal in Louisiana in the completion of the Sawtooth fifth cavern. So to go from 200 to 300, we are looking at purchasing additional line space on Colonial. We have recently been successful doing that. We are looking at some retail propane businesses that are in our footprint, and we're also looking at Water Pipelines wherever we can find an opportunity makes a lot of sense to build those. That makes up the other 100 million probably in multiple costs of three to six times and obviously they are all in the $1 million to $45 million, $50 million range. So anything bigger than that we're clearly going to our new JV partner, Oaktree we're very fortunate to have Oaktree as a partner, and things have of the larger value whether that’s a 100 to whatever million dollars, we would pursue those with Oaktree as our partner. So I think, with that, we will open it for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of [Mark Berman from Trident] [ph]. Your question please.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes, sir. Thank you. I was just wondering what the thoughts are over, I would say the mid-term on any increases to the dividend. I understand that in the short term after the dividend cut moneys are used for debt reduction et cetera?

Trey Karlovich

Analyst

So, obviously as we -- when we announced the reduction in our distribution back in April, we did describe that as a temporary reduction in our distribution. We are looking at the current distribution level to be in place for the next couple of quarters until Grand Mesa comes online going into next year. We would observe where we are from a financial perspective where the market is and make -- our Board would make that determination at that point in time. Our guidance and the excess cash flow that I have described in our guidance, assumes our distribution at this level for 12 months.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Lin Shen from HITE. Your question, please.

LinShen

Analyst

So first of the 500 million in guidance for the next fiscal year, what are some of the key assumptions there around commodities and volumes on the system?

Trey Karlovich

Analyst

So we put our guidance together in March of this year as we put together our budget, which was approved by our Board in early April and was submitted to our bank group as well as our rating agency. The price curve that we used at that point in time was based on a curve of - started at about $36 and increased to approximately $43 through the 12 month period. That price assumption was used to generate our various volume assumptions for the businesses that are impacted by crude oil, so specifically our crude oil logistics and our water business. Additionally, we looked at pricing and demand for other products namely propane and butane in our retail propane and our NGL Logistics business and motor fuels, diesel fuel, jet fuel and gasoline for our Refined Products business, those businesses are more driven by demand versus just the absolute price.

LinShen

Analyst

Right, so you are assuming normal winter then for the propane businesses?

Trey Karlovich

Analyst

Yes we are.

Mike Krimbill

Analyst

Lin, this is Mike. Look, I'll put it in another ways. We did the 4.25-ish, we have 50 million there for - included for Grand Mesa, that's 4.75. So there is only a really a 25 increase over this lousy, challenging environment, and that's part of that is just the normal weather for our Liquids and Propane division. But basically it’s, our look at it - kind of assume the crappy environment that we've gone through for the last 12 months continuing. So clearly, we are doing -- I mean crude prices are up. We haven’t seen the rig count go up yet and I think the rig count is the key to seeing increased water and crude volumes.

Lin Shen

Analyst

And then in the water business, are you seeing robust interest in this conversion to pipelines versus trucks that you've been pushing or has that really been kind of pushed out with the commodity environment?

Mike Krimbill

Analyst

I think it's somewhere in between, I wouldn’t call it robust. We've got half a dozen water pipeline projects that we are building. So I think where it isn’t robust is because in this environment it's difficult to get the producers to sign up for a take-or-pay, and of course we're not just building these pipeline out of [spec] [ph]. We've got to have a commitment from the producer. So that's where I think the rub occurs but we do have some of those commitments and we are building those pipelines.

Lin Shen

Analyst

And the competition in that segment, has it been going bankrupt and going away in this environment, I can't imagine smaller players doing very well?

Trey Karlovich

Analyst

We have been asking our water management the same question because we just don’t see numerous bankruptcy filings. There was one I think late last year, which I believe was CJ Energy. Everyone, all the other bigger players seem to be hanging on whatever that means but not going bankrupt. But we are seeing a number of the disposal facilities being shut down although they are not declaring bankruptcy.

LinShen

Analyst

Make sense. And last question, in terms of Crude Logistics, there has been a real positive -- and actually water -- a real positive in the oil strip being far above where it was when you put your guidance together. But then also contango was not what it was and so the net of those two things, can we assume by your reaffirmation of the guidance of those things at this point are sort of netting each other out or is there some upside to the guidance from the commodity price environment?

Mike Krimbill

Analyst

I think it's early to say there is upside, again we really focused on the rig count. The crude price helps on our skim oil, but we are looking for the second half of this year to see completion of these ducts that will lead to a lot of flow-back water, which has a higher percentage of crude oil. So net-net you do, you're correct, the contango -- and we're still waiting to see what's really happened because we've seen contango be less, it's reduced here in the last few weeks. But we're not sure is that because producers are locking in $50 plus strip, which is going to impact the out months temporarily. So we're not sure -- we were not confirmed yet the contango was permanently reduced. But we’re not going to see it increasing in crud volumes until we get the rig count increasing and it seems to have bottomed out.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session at today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Mike Krimbill, CEO.

Mike Krimbill

Analyst

Well, thank you guys very much and we'll probably see you very shortly for the first quarter. All right thanks.