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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS) Q4 2011 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 8, 2012

$40.88

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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. Q4 2011 Earnings Call Key Takeaways

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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. Q4 2011 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Natural Gas Services Group announces its fourth quarter 2011 conference call. [Operator Instructions] Your call leaders for today's call are Leann Conner, IR Coordinator; Steve Taylor, Chairman, President and CEO. I will now hand the call over to Ms. Conner. You may begin.

Leann Conner

Analyst

Thank you, Erica, and good morning, listeners. Please allow me to take a moment to read the following forward-looking statement prior to commencing our earnings call. Except for the historical information contained herein, the statements in this morning's conference call are forward-looking and they are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions as outlined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements, as you may know, involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause Natural Gas Services Group's actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. Those risks include, among other things, the loss of market share through competition or otherwise, the introduction of competing technologies by other companies, new governmental safety, health or environmental regulations which could require Natural Gas Services Group to make significant capital expenditures. The forward-looking statements included in this conference call are made as of the date of this call, and Natural Gas Services Group undertakes no obligation to publicly update such forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements include, but they are not limited to, factors described in our recent press release and also under the caption Risk Factors in the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Having all that stated, I will turn the call over to Steve Taylor, who is President, Chairman and CEO of Natural Gas Services Group. Steve?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · CL King

Okay, thanks, Leann, and thanks, Erica, and good morning and welcome to the Natural Gas Services Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2011 Earnings Review. 2011 was a very successful year for NGS. We continue to grow our rental fleet, utilization improved and we gained more exposure to the oil and liquids-oriented plays. Total sales grew as well. And in fact, each of our 3 product lines grew by between 20% to 30% for the year. While our total revenue has declined significantly, our operating income, net income and EBITDA grew at an even faster rate. Look at total revenues, we saw a 21% increase when compared to 2010, with 2011 revenues hitting a little over $65 million. For the sequential quarters of Q3 '11 compared to Q4 '11, total revenues rose almost $1 million or 5% primarily due to increased flare sales and rental revenues. Our gross margin grew from $29.2 million in 2010 to $34.8 million in 2011, a 19% increase. Sequentially, gross margin increased 13% from $8.8 million in the third quarter of 2011 to $9.9 million in the current quarter, with overall margins at 53% of revenue compared to 49% last quarter. In the sequential quarters, all of our product lines increased their gross margins. In comparative full year periods, SG&A increased by less than 1% in 2011 and fell from 11% of revenue in 2010 to 9% in 2011. SG&A decreased 5% in the sequential quarters and moved down to 8% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2011. Operating income for the full year of 2011 was $14.9 million compared to $11.4 million in 2010, a crowd-pleasing 31% increase. As a ratio of revenue, it grew from 21% to 23%. Sequentially, operating income increased almost $1 million or 28% to $4.7 million, and moved from a margin of 21% up to 25% of revenue this quarter. Our improvements in gross margin, SG&A and operating income all reflect the efforts of our employees in controlling expenses. And I want to compliment all of them, field and staff, on those efforts. Full year net income grew 39% to $9.8 million or 15% of revenue in 2011 when compared to $7 million in 2010. Comparing the third quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter, net income increased 36% to $3 million, an increase from 13% of revenue to 16%. EBITDA of $23.4 million in 2010 grew 27% to $29.7 million in 2011, with a corresponding increase from 43% of revenue to 46%. EBITDA grew from $7.2 million in the third quarter of last year to $8.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2011, a 19% increase. This is the fourth year in a row that NGS has delivered EBITDA margins in the 40% to 50% range. Fully diluted earnings per share increased to $0.80 per common share in 2011, a 38% increase when compared to the $0.58 earned in 2010. EPS this quarter was $0.25 per common share, compared to $0.18 in the third quarter of 2011 and $0.16 in the fourth quarter of 2010. I want to point out that revenue, gross margin, operating income, net income and EBITDA were all at their highest levels this quarter than at any quarter since the first quarter of 2009, which was our previous record quarter. Total sales revenue, looking at segment comparisons, increased 25% to $15.4 million for the full year of 2011. Sequential quarterly total sales revenues were flat at $4.8 million, however, margins moved up from 33% to 43%. Compressor sales in the current quarter were $1.8 million with a gross margin of 21%. Our compressor sales segment continued to have limited visibility in this low-priced market, and I think that'll continue to be a variable on a quarterly basis until prices firm. Our backlog, however, was approximately $7.5 million at the end of the fourth quarter of '11. This includes a couple of million dollars in projects that were delayed from the third quarter of 2011. Compressor rental revenue in 2011 increased to $48.6 million with a full year gross margin of 57%. This is a 20% revenue increase compared to 2010. Gross margin last year was 60% with the year-over-year difference being continued cost pressure from lube oils, parts costs and labor costs. Sequentially, rental revenues were up 6% from $12.7 million in the third quarter of 2011 to $13.5 million this quarter. Gross margin also ticked up from 56% to 57% of revenue. Average rental pricing of an active compressor was up about 2% in 2011 compared to 2010. We entered the fourth quarter with a rental fleet utilization rate of 74% on a fleet size of 2,120 compressors. This was a slight increase in the utilization from last quarter and it was on top of a 44-compressor addition to the fleet. Our horsepower utilization is running at 77%. With a rental fleet consisting of 2,120 compressors at year-end, we have built 211 units in 2011 compared to 133 units built in 2010. Rental capital expense for 2011 was $34 million compared to 2010 where we spent $21 million for the full year. Turning to the balance sheet, we are debt free for the first time in almost a decade, and cash in the bank was $16.4 million at the end of the year. Our cash flow from operations this year was $34 million compared to $29 million for the same period in 2010, an increase of 17%. We continue to generate a free flow amounts of cash even in sideways markets. We spent $34 million in CapEx this year, $13 million more than last year, and our cash balance is only $3 million lower. Now looking at current markets, it is apparent that gas pricing isn't where it should be. It's been a very quick turn in the gas market. At the beginning of winter and over the prior year, pricing was stable, storage was balanced and the world was a happier place. But, throw in a little bit of warm weather, not to mention a total lack of cold, and in 2 to 3 months prices have tumbled as fast as storage is built. Lesson here, again, is that is folly to try and predict natural gas prices. I have been under the apparently mistaken impression that if there's one cost in this world, it was that natural gas prices increase in the onset of winter. Always, always, going into winter, prices got better. Not this year. Winter just hasn't happened. We now have the lowest gas prices in 10 years and some are predicting further deterioration. Along with that, the natural rig count is also at a 2-year low. However, that is a positive because it will help reduce the supply issue that has driven the price problem. Our business doesn't direct -- directly depend on the rig count or the price of natural gas, although they both are indications of future activity. Instead, we are interested on how much gas is moving through the system. And even at these low prices, we haven't seen any real shut-ins. That doesn't mean that spring or summer couldn't bring some, but right now we haven't seen any real impact from low prices. There isn't anything we can do about the price, but we can choose the markets we compete in. And we will continue to push into the oilier areas while also maintaining our presence, relationships and service in the existing dry gas areas. This is still a good big business and it will resurface. We now have 20% of our active fleet in liquids-oriented areas, up from 0 in 2009. And our challenge will be to keep liquids-oriented growth high enough to counter any negative impact on the dry gas side. Some recent figures show that weather-adjusted storage has shifted from a 3 Bcf per day oversupply to a 2 Bcf per day undersupply over the past few weeks. This is a huge 5 Bcf per day swing as being attributed to coal-gas switching, some production shut-ins and the falling rig count, which also has a knock-on effect with not replacing depleting wells. So, if you are one of the guys predicting [indiscernible] lowered gas for the next decade, I will refer you back to my comments about trying to predict the price of natural gas. From a macro and longer-term perspective, the consumption of natural gas doesn't have any choice but to grow. For example, LNG liquefaction plants are being destructed from natural gas imports here in the U.S. And not only are they being built, but they're securing long-term export contracts and favorable financing and investment. Natural gas vehicle, NGV trucks, have been announced this past week by Chevy and Chrysler. This should kickstart some fuel intakes and buildout. These are also biofuel vehicles, so the risk of running out of fuel is no greater than a standard gasoline-powered vehicle, and that should mitigate the present lack of infrastructure issues. The low price of natural gas has called a -- has caused a minor renaissance in the billing and reopening of petrochemical plants. The Northeast region of the U.S. has 1.5 Bcf per day of new gas-fired power plants proposed to come online within the next 2 years. And a cross-border pollution rule that would have driven the retirement of many coal plants over time has been held up by the courts recently, but I expect it will go into effect in the next year or 2. These are all natural gas issues that are structural. Once you have them in place, they're not easily displaced. Exxon's recently issued annual energy report noted that in 2040, coal, oil and natural gas will supply nearly 80% of the world's energy. Renewable fuels will be the fastest growing energy sources, but they remain a minor slice of the global energy supply, increasing from 1% today to 4% in 2040. Natural gas will continue to be the fastest-growing major fuel, and demand will increase by about 60% from 2010 to 2040. After 2030, they see global coal demand declining for the first time in modern history, and coal is the most direct competitor to natural gas. So we continue with the short-term gas price issue, but the future looks all the brighter. Now let's address the oil and energy policy recently announced by the administration. This was described as, among other things, a strategy to expand and expedite the production of fossil fuels on federal lands while ensuring their safe and responsible development. Sounds like a good policy. Who couldn't agree to that? Not surprisingly, this tribute to the development of our own safe, secure, domestic resources seems to be again more hype than hope. Instead of listening to what is said on the campaign trail, let's look at the facts as inconvenient as they may be. The administration says they want to expand U.S. production of fossil fuels on federal land but in fact, the opposite has happened. Oil and gas production from federal acreage is 40% lower today than 10 years ago. Under this administration, 2010 had the lowest number of onshore leases issued since 1984. The administration had only one offshore lease sale and narrowly avoided making 2011 the first year since 1953 without an offshore lease sale. The administration wants to raise federal royalties to "market rates." This is increased taxation under another name. They want safe and responsible development, but as an example and outside of all the noise, frac-ing is actually safe and responsible. There has been no tie to groundwork contamination ever proven. But there are those trying to shut it down and causing delays in the development of some of our resources. Safe and responsible can be a cover for stop and resist, too. This administration has recently taken a position that all the increase in oil and gas production in this country has been due to their positive actions. Nice try. But U.S. oil and gas production has increased only because of increased production from private and estate lands. Our restrictive federal policies have resulted in the declines in oil and gas production from federally held lands. Do these sound like effective methods, as the policy purports, to increase production of our own oil and gas resources? No. In my opinion, these are the guys who retired domestic production of [indiscernible] higher levies [ph] on oil and gas industry and redirect them to renewables in the title of an all-in energy policy. When applied to the oil and gas industry, it's actually all-out of our pocket plan. There are couple of other interesting actions recommended by the policy. Cafe [ph] regulations are set to increase the mileage in cars by 25% to 30% in the next 10 to 15 years. A noble endeavor, and this is entirely [ph] as a way to energy independence, but again, the economics of it are left behind. The added cost per car gained, there is about $5,000, and that was never mentioned. I love this one: Have the government by more hybrids. How in the world does that do anything for anybody? It is fitting though. The government can start buying Volts, the GM electric car, that they had to stop building because no one is buying them. People in the government gave $7,500 towards the purchase of one. This week, the administration announced that the rising prices of gasoline has to be the actions of nefarious traders and manipulators and announced another investigation of price manipulation. There have been at least 10 to 12 investigations by the government over the last decade and never was any manipulation found. Never. The primary reasons for the higher price of crude and gasoline is our lack of a real domestic oil and gas policy, which begets the instability of our supply chain of crude, and the inflationary effect of a dollar-based barrel of crude due to the tremendous [indiscernible] that have weakened the value of our dollar. This administration pleads innocence when it comes to high gasoline prices, but there are real actions that can be taken to minimize the impact. Let's take this a bit further to the administration's other great passion besides the production of oil and gas of course, and that is higher taxes on the oil and gas industry. I'll call them tax hikes, but the administration characterizes them as elimination of subsidies. These subsidies, however, are available to all manufacturing industries, but they want to eliminate them only for the oil and gas industry. This is nothing less than discriminatory and selective taxation for an industry that is out of favor with the present administration. Speaking of subsidies, according to a July 2011 Energy Department study, oil, natural gas and coal received tax preferences that amount to $0.64 per megawatt hour in 2010, while wind energy received 100x more or $56.29 per megawatt hour. And their subsidies were tax preferences and direct cash infusions. At least the oil, natural gas and coal industries were net taxpayers to the tune of billions of dollars. I'm not even going to go into the cancellation of the Excel [ph] pipeline. Apparently, 4 years of study wasn't enough. If it isn't already obvious that this was a political payback, then nothing I say will make any difference. So the all-in energy policy is no such thing. It's the same rhetoric cloaked in a different cover. The intent is not to increase domestic oil and gas production, but to increase the taxes on it and redistribute its income towards energy industries that have no chance of standalone profitability, and by default, a real secured supply for at least 20 years. That's the end of my prepared remarks, and I'll turn the call back to Erica for questions that anybody might have.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Gary Farber from CL King.

Gary Farber

Analyst · CL King

Just a question, given the environment you described that you're operating in, you said the low gas prices weren't really impacting at this point. Could you talk about what the competitive environment is right now? And are there opportunities on your pricing or anything like that? Where do you see opportunities, I guess, in light of what the competitive environment is?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · CL King

Well obviously the main opportunity's in the liquids plays that we've been moving into and [indiscernible] couple of years. So maybe the first thing because there's -- number one, there's a lot of activity there. Utilization tends to be relatively high on that type of equipment, and pricing pressures tend to be relatively less because obviously, there's very good economics for everybody in those projects. So that's the first thing. We have been able to -- as I mentioned, our average price is up 2% over the year. So we have been able to get some pricing in. And we do it selectively where we can do it in certain areas or certain -- if we have equipment that's highly utilized, it tends to carry a -- more of a market price than equipment isn't. So we're pretty cognizant about the opportunities where we can and can't push price and we do that as quick we can. From a competitive standpoint, we -- there seems to have been some mitigation of some of the I guess what I might call, predatory pricing last year, although I haven't -- we're still sleeping with the one eye open because every once in a while something pops up that just surprises you. But hopefully there's -- everybody's kind of come to the conclusion that just lower and lower pricing isn't the answer to things, and we're not seeing as much of it, I don't think.

Gary Farber

Analyst · CL King

Then just also on the liquids side, if you would have -- if we would go back like a year ago compared to where we are today, I mean how much different is it playing out? How -- is it playing out faster than you would have thought a year ago, the opportunities are there? Is the market more robust than you might have thought a year ago? How do you see it?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · CL King

No. I think it's about what we expected. I mean it's going to keep, keep growing I think. Certainly, what we're -- as I mentioned, our challenge is to keep it growing faster than any potential down side on the dry gas. Again we haven't seen anything, but you always have to look at the margin, any price change effects something somewhere. So we've been able to keep up or stay ahead of anything. So, I think the development has been about what we thought. We think it will continue certainly as long as oil stays $100 or more. And I think that's going to be a pretty standard price going forward. We may be able -- we're obviously always -- we're moving stuff into this -- in some of the oily areas, we're already in. We're always looking at getting in, in new ones. So I think as we do that, we may be able to push the growth a little quicker, but it's about what we're thinking. The rate of growth is about what we've thought.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Ian Breusch from Private Capital Management.

Ian Breusch

Analyst · Private Capital Management

A quick question on utilization. I know that -- I think the last time we talked, you had talked about it may be ticking up by 1% or so over the next couple of quarters and maybe getting closer to 80% by the end of next year. I assume that maybe those projections have come down a bit just in light of where natural gas is right now and maybe looking at a flat utilization rate going forward for the next year or so?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Private Capital Management

Well, it could be. Besides just utilization -- we've talked about this probably more so last year where we were actually growing the fleet and growing revenues, but utilization was kind of stuck at a certain number because we were adding a lot of new equipment to the fleet. And although that new equipment was 100% utilized, it wasn't moving -- with over 2,000 units, it just wasn't moving the needle very much. We may get into a little of that this year, too. I think we can keep the fleet growing, but I think we want to keep an eye on utilization. Because certainly, we look at that very closely but I think everybody else will need to keep an eye on the other factors that matter like what our revenue's doing and how many units are we adding to the fleet and stuff like that. So there's some other factors now besides just pure utilization as a good indicator of growth that has to be looked at also as we're adding equipment in. As I mentioned, utilization on a unit basis, 74%; utilization on a horsepower basis is higher, about 77%. And usually, we run with that within a point of each other. So that's really expanded here over the last year, and that's because the oilier plays are taking higher horsepower equipment and we're putting our stuff out there on a 100% utilization basis. We don't build anything in that realm with that -- signed contracts. So that stuff's already committed when we start building. So we're seeing some -- that's certainly a positive indication, too, because that's driven by the oil plays and you get a small incrementally better margin on all that stuff now. You're not going to see it in 10, 20 or 50 units, but over time as you start building this in the 200, 300, 400 unit component of a fleet, it becomes a little more appreciable. So, utilization, a good indicator. We want to watch it, but yes, it could flatten a bit. But when you see it out, I think, I'd direct everybody to certainly look at what the revenue's doing, what are we adding to the fleet and things like that.

Ian Breusch

Analyst · Private Capital Management

Okay, great. And one other quick question, it's somewhat related. Roughly $35 million in CapEx for 2011. Obviously, there's growth related to oil. Do you kind of foresee that same number for 2012? Or is that ratcheted back just with what's going on? Has that increased at all? Where are you at on sort of CapEx budget maybe going out another year or so?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Private Capital Management

Yes. That's -- all I care of them is pretty much of a moving target especially with the -- that column [ph] we've got between the oil plays and the gas plays. I'm certainly not -- I think last call, I probably mentioned we were -- we would think in the $25 million to $30 million range just from the point of pricing taking such a dive, gas pricing. I'm not -- I'm not uncomfortable with that number, and I don't want everybody saying, "Oh my gosh, capital's down 25%, things are going south." That's not the point. What we're trying -- what we've got to try to balance is certainly we think there's going to be increases in capital required to build equipment for the oil plays. But just trying to figure out what the gas plays might do is a wildcard, and if we get any deterioration there, actually some of that equipment might be moved into the oil plays. So we could still grow in the oil side, but we wouldn't need to build as much equipment as we have in the past. So that's why the big variation in what we think the capital might be going forward. It's just going to have to play out.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Gibney from Capital One.

Joseph Gibney

Analyst · Capital One

Just a couple of questions on the sales side, you referenced some delay that had carried over from 3Q out of your $1.8 million in revs and you're sitting on $7.5 million in backlog. Just curious what kind of visibility you have on pull-through of revenues there out of your backlogs, say in the first quarter?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Capital One

Well, yes. Probably the majority of that backlog is going to be a Q1, Q2 thing and kind, as a backlog would do, kind of decline over that period. Visibility, like I've said and have been saying for 2 years, absolutely none because I think this is probably the third quarter in a row that projects have been pushed back or delayed only because customers have added equipment or changes or stuff like that. We always want to try to book those things as quick as we can. But -- so there's always some of that, and we just don't have that visibility anymore on some of these things. And some of it's been -- we've moved into doing some larger horsepower builds on the sales side and that stuff always takes -- it's got a little longer build time to start with. So you're tending to spend in quarters to begin with and if you get any changes in that, it kind of moves it around. And then we've had some relatively good international work here lately and that didn't stretch out, too. So there's, again, factors in that, that's just hard to identify right now.

Joseph Gibney

Analyst · Capital One

Okay, fair enough. And just on the non-compressor sales portion. Continues to be pretty strong, as you've referenced, flares sales. I mean on average, you can do over $10 million in revenues on the sort of flares parts and rebuild side of your business, on the sales front. I mean '11's a strong year. But do you think you can maintain at current levels? Just curious. Your outlook on the flare business has been strong.

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Capital One

Yes. I think so. The inquiry level is still running well and that business still didn't look like it had any fall off at all. A lot of that stuff has been going up to the Bakken. I think that's going to continue for a little bit, but we've also seen just much as some of the other plays, too. And there's quite a bit going here in the Permian. So, yes, there's flaring in some other places just because they can't get the gas connections. So that seems like it will hold in for this year, and that's what's driven -- we had a pretty good jump from that gross margin on the sales side. And although the revenues were flat across, it's -- we had that mix shift in there being more flare sales and compressor sales and flare sales being the higher margin.

Joseph Gibney

Analyst · Capital One

Sure, understood. All right last one for me and I'll turn it back. Just on your 20% liquids-driven of your rental fleet, just -- I know predominantly they've been more Barnett combo focused. So I'm just curious amongst the different plays how that 20% is dispersed roughly?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Capital One

Yes. Well it's starting to get -- to distribute it out. So the Barnett was the first one we got in to. The Granite Wash is now providing pretty good growth. We're starting to see -- I think we've mentioned in the past, the Utica Shale is starting to pick up some stuff. The ones we haven't seen a whole lot in yet are Marcellus and Eagle Ford and those are probably run a little slower than what we anticipated. There's bigger equipment going on in those plays, but down to wellhead yet, we haven't seen a whole lot. We anticipate that, and that's where I think if get -- we think we can continue to grow in the places I mentioned that we're going into now, but we think these others are still out there. Hopefully this year, or probably certainly next, that we'll start seeing some growth there, too.

Operator

Operator

Then our next question comes from Dick Kindig from Keeley Asset Management.

William Kindig

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

You mentioned a little earlier about a rate of growth expected, but you didn't mention that rate of growth.

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

Now in the oil plays?

William Kindig

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

Well I think -- I thought you were just talking about your general overall growth rate but...

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

Okay, from a top line perspective?

William Kindig

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

Right, yes. Yes.

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

Yes. We don't normally venture too much into that. I might have been -- I don't know what I was referring to actually, but...

William Kindig

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

Maybe you were talking about the oily plays. I don't...

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

Yes. It's probably more of the oily plays.

William Kindig

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

Then what rate did I miss?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Keeley Asset Management

Yes, well if you look at our growth last '09, '10, and '11, of course oil's been the main driver. Dry gas has shown a little of an uptick, but since it's been 0 to 5% growth, essentially flat in the whole scheme of things. I imagine dry gas will stay about the same. It's not going to move a whole lot until we get a little better -- a little firmer pricing. But we've -- 20% of the active fleet in oil plays now. So that's going to calculate out to I think around -- at around 300 or 400 units that's taking place over the next couple of years. So I think if you just take that, maybe the rate of growth isn't going to be as high, but I think if you add in maybe another 100, 150 this year, maybe the same next year, you get roughly the same amount of units in there somewhat. So I think you can -- from the oil side, you can probably see a doubling of that in 2 to 3 years. Now that's -- I hate to go out on a limb like that and say that stuff because oil will go to $50 tomorrow just like washing your car when it rains. But just roughly looking at what it's been, that's not unreasonable.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Haithum Nokta from Global Hunter Securities.

Haithum Nokta

Analyst · Global Hunter Securities

You highlighted -- you said just 20% of your fleet is currently working in like liquids plays. I was wondering kind of where you expect, or where do you think like the potential is for that number to be by the end of 2012?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Global Hunter Securities

Well, it could be in the 25% to 30% range and I would say maybe conservatively. Again we've come from 0 in '09, so couple of years we've gone to 20%. So that's an average 10% per year. I'm not going to say that'll -- when you first get into a play, you kind of get some flush activity. But I think you could -- we could see a 25%, 30%. So, 25% to 50% more units in the oily plays as we go.

Haithum Nokta

Analyst · Global Hunter Securities

Okay. And what do you think would be like the biggest issues in like moving into those plays?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Global Hunter Securities

Of what? Moving into them or...

Haithum Nokta

Analyst · Global Hunter Securities

Yes, yes.

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Global Hunter Securities

Not really any big issues to us and we're actually looking at some others. We've -- obviously we've moved into the Utica brand-new last year, moved in to the Barnett brand-new 2 years ago. I mean the Barnett combo, we are in the Barnett. Moved into Granite Wash last year. So we're pretty adept at moving in to places where we see the market and taking advantage of it and getting a fairly good footprint. So I don't see any issues to it. Probably the biggest thing you always have any time you're doing that if it takes new equipment is just getting the equipment in a timely fashion and building it and stuff like that. But I don't think that's going to be a bottleneck necessarily. I think it's just something we have to plan for.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Dustyn Owen from Sidoti & Company.

Dustyn Owen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

I know you talked a little bit about the utilization and on the revenues and the rental, but can you go over the numbers quickly again on total numbers -- total units there?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

Well, on the 74% number?

Dustyn Owen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

Yes.

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

Yes. Well, we've got 2,120 units at the end of the year, so 74% of those are -- so, what, 1,500, 1,600, 1,600 are operating, the balance there are not. And then of those is a 20% that are in the liquids plays right now. So that would equate to around 250, 300 or so in there. And then again, the horsepower being about 300 basis points higher. So we've got just little more -- we have -- and that reflects the higher utilization of that higher horsepower range that we've been putting in those oil plays.

Dustyn Owen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

Perfect. And the -- quick just maybe number on what the total growth for '12 might be?

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

It was mentioned to Dick, I don't -- we don't put out guidance per se in that respect. Again, we don't -- the sales visibility is pretty tough and as I mentioned in the past, that's going to be a up-and-down, quarter-by-quarter number. And if we tend to have a higher-than-expected revenue or lower-than-expected revenue, you need a certain quarter, undoubtedly it's going to be on the sales side. From the rental piece, as I mentioned if we get into a $25 million to $30 million capital build, you can ration that with what we spent last year in the number of units, $35 million in 227 units. So it kind of maybe give you a rough idea of what we think the rental side would be.

Operator

Operator

At this time, we have no further questions.

Stephen Taylor

Analyst · CL King

Okay. Erica, thanks for your help. I appreciate everybody joining in, and we will talk to you next quarter. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending.