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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Sun, Nov 9, 2014

$41.03

+0.42%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Natural Gas Services Group Third Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode, (Operator Instructions) Your call leaders for today's call are Alicia Dada, IR Coordinator; and Steve Taylor, Chairman, President and CEO. I would now hand the call over to Ms. Dada. You may begin.

Alicia Dada

Management

Thank you, Erica, and good morning listeners. Please allow me to take a moment to read the following forward-looking statement prior to commencing our earnings call. Except for the historical information contained herein, the statements in this morning's conference call are forward-looking and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions as outlined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements, as you may know, involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause Natural Gas Services Group's actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. Those risks include, among other things, the loss of market share through competition or otherwise; the introduction of competing technologies by other companies; and new governmental safety, health or environmental regulations, which could require Natural Gas Services Group to make significant capital expenditures. The forward-looking statements included in this conference call are made as of the date of this call, and Natural Gas Services undertakes no obligation to publicly update such forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, factors described in our recent press release and also under the caption Risk Factors in the Company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Having all of that stated, I will turn the call over to Steve Taylor, who is President, Chairman and CEO of Natural Gas Services Group. Steve.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Thank you, Alicia, and good morning, and welcome to Natural Gas Services Group's third quarter 2014 earnings review. I’m happy to report that our total revenues grew by 17% on a year-over-year and sequential quarterly basis and we continue to achieve overall gross margins in the mid to high 50% range. When compared to the year-ago quarter rental revenues grew 13% in the current quarter and were up 4% from the last quarter. Additionally compressor sales volumes were appreciatively higher this quarter. We are well pleased with our performance, our business has grown vigorously and we continue to achieve cost savings and efficiencies. I'll detail these comments as we go through the narrative. In the year-over-year quarters, our total revenues increased 17% or $3.7 million from $21.9 million in the third quarter of 2013 to $25.6 million in the third quarter of this year. Rental revenues increased 13% this quarter compared to the same quarter last year and sales revenues were 34% higher. Revenues in each of our reported segments were up year-over-year. The sequential quarters of the second quarter 2014 compared to the third quarter of this year, total revenues were up 17% or $3.6 million to $25.6 million. Compressor sales was a large driver of this quarterly improvement, but rental revenues also grew. Comparing the third quarter of 2013 to this current quarter, total gross margin was 17% from $11.9 million to $13.9 million, clocking in at 54% of revenue. Sequentially, total gross margin increased 7% to $13.9 million which was 54% of revenue. This compared to last quarter’s gross margin of 59% with the difference being driven by the mix shift between lower margin sales and higher margin rentals. SG&A expense was down 6% from the second quarter of 2014 when it was 12% of revenue, and…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Rob Brown from Lake Street Capital. Please state your question. Robert D. Brown – Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC: Good morning.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Hi Rob. Robert D. Brown – Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC: On kind of the visibility on a downturn, sort of what have you seen at least at October placements, but have you seen any slowdown yet and I guess how soon would you see these things do start to look?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

: And as I mentioned, I think any potential decline that might be seen in the rig counts and I think we need to be a little realistic if the oil price is down 20% there is probably going to be some impact of that but again with our production orientation, I think any impact we might see would be delayed and mitigated somewhat versus the drilling pieces of business. Now as far as you know how we would see it, how quick we would see it and things like that of course there is numerous ways we could catch window of things, number one even customers just tells what they are going to do or come back on programs and things like that certainly watching utilization more closer, we’ve started to go on and I think I mentioned in the past we typically will order equipment on a about every two months, we will sit down and look at it and take of you as to what we’ve got going through the plans, what sales force is saying they need and what our bill schedule is and we are going to a 30-day stock client now. So we’ve shortened the review period to be in every month versus every couple of months. So just a few things there that we can kind of do that and then if I start waking through middle of night cold sweat that’s an indicator too. : And as I mentioned, I think any potential decline that might be seen in the rig counts and I think we need to be a little realistic if the oil price is down 20% there is probably going to be some impact of that but again with our production orientation, I think any impact we might see…

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

I didn’t hear the last part what you said, I know you said about the build schedule. Robert D. Brown – Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC: Yes, the Q4 build schedule, what's kind of the number you are looking at in Q4 and [indiscernible] talk through kind of what's driving that build schedule in Q4?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Well, we knew that the Q4 is going to be a little light on the [indiscernible] build, because their sales – I assume these compressor sales that we’ve had scheduled have been pushed back and back as everybody knows, so we are starting to see some of those move to the plant. So knowing that Tulsa would generally be pretty well consumed on a sales basis that’s why we wrapped up the Q3 build to a much higher level than normal. So we anticipate Midland carrying the load for that build and probably the average number units been in the probably 50 or 60 unit range for Q4. One of the other things also going into Q4 is that holidays tend to cut out approximately a couple of weeks of real build time too. So some of that mitigates that also. Robert D. Brown – Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC: Great, thank you I’ll turn it over.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Okay. Thanks Rob.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Wrangler from Wunderlich Capital. Please state your question. Jason A. Wangler – Wunderlich Securities Inc.: Hey, good morning.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Hey, Jason. Jason A. Wangler – Wunderlich Securities Inc.: Steve, you kind of mentioned that there was the slower fourth quarter as far as the build. Do you have an idea on the CapEx side, I mean I think if I’m not mistaken it was kind of around the $50 million range was what you are looking at for the year, but do you have an update kind of on that?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Yes, we spend $18 million in Q3, so the highest of the year, so we’ll be down to about half of that because the build would be about half of that for Q4. And on a year-to-date or a full year basis by the end of the year we will be in that low to mid-50s range on capitals and that about what we had projected coming into the year and then about 320, 330 compressors. So both of those are still on track to what we anticipate and we just had to accelerate Q3 a little more. Jason A. Wangler – Wunderlich Securities Inc.: That’s helpful. Thank you. And I guess just you mentioned it a lot and obviously you are all talking about the 2015 side, but have you seen maybe even it’s from competitors or anything any discussions on pricing and obviously you guys are kind of a leader on price, are you hearing anything coming back as we starting to hear kind of the E&Ps leaning on some of the service providers?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

We haven’t heard anything, that doesn’t mean a whole lot, if you go back and now saying this is an important year the same, we could go back to 2008, 2009 and last time we had a downturn, that stuff can deteriorate pretty quick certainly activity can and then pricing falls behind that, if you look back in there we saw utilization come off much faster than pricing. So I would expect the same thing if we saw it, now we have – again based on the numbers I mentioned we are showing on new sets going out 7% higher price than last year, so we are still able to drive pricing through and that actually sets us up well for any events probably in 2015, because if we do go into a downturn of sorts and we start to see some of that pressure, at least we’ve got what I would consider a 7% head start on the market to get through it, which is about same sort of thing we had back in 2008. But now, we are not seeing any over indications of any price we can guess at this point, but again it can – if the customers and all the competitors gets spooked it can happen pretty quick. Jason A. Wangler – Wunderlich Securities Inc.: I appreciate it. Thanks Steve.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Yes. Thanks Jason.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Veny Aleksandrov from FIG Partners. Please state your question. Veny Aleksandrov – FIG Partners, LLC: Good morning Steve.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Hi, Veny. Veny Aleksandrov – FIG Partners, LLC: My first question, you talked a little bit about the defensive measures. Can you talk a little bit about the growth of measures expanding the sales force volume, hiring people in sales, do you want to go out here and promote new products, new technologies, what's the reasoning behind this?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Well, it’s probably a little above. We want to put some additional sales in combination of some areas that are grown well that we're already in, that we think we can use a little more coverage in and maybe a couple of newer areas that we are high and to get a little stronger into. So kind of a two pronged approach there, so that’s obviously just trying to take our existing products into some of that, and that a primary reason we want to do it, just we still see some opportunities in some of the places, but we are working on a couple of products that we think we’ll see come to fruition in 2015 additional compression products and things like that that certainly will go into the product mix that existing and any new sales guys could offer. Veny Aleksandrov – FIG Partners, LLC: Lot’s of our opportunities – tied up in Q4, it’s not going to be the effect, it’s not going to come until 2015 right on new products and…

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Oh no, no. Any of this stuff and kind of addition I mentioned what it is because we don’t want to be button hold too much on any specific timing, but yes, the one or two products we are looking at 2015 would be more of an introduction sort of period and then if we’ve guessed right and these products are popular and a good fit and good for the markets then we think we would start seeing full contributions starting in 2016. Veny Aleksandrov – FIG Partners, LLC: Thank you. I appreciate that.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Gibney from Capital One. Please state your question. Joseph D. Gibney – Capital One Securities, Inc.: Hi Steve, how are you?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Good Joe, how are you doing? Joseph D. Gibney – Capital One Securities, Inc.: Doing all right. Juts a couple of quick question. Was curious on G&A, I know you’d kind of alluded that it pitched up a little bit higher with a bit more engineering and sales costs associated with the Midland capacity expansion in growing at a few targeted markets, it sounds like that sales piece is still there and growing. But 10% is your sweet spot, and you’re settling on more at the lower end of that range versus migrating higher 10% to 11%, just curious on the modeling standpoint there.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Well and I mentioned 10% to 11% last call and I think we probably still need to kind of leave that as a rough estimate there. Some of the advantages we are getting is as I mentioned last time, some of the larger driver this year was non-cash equity compensation for employees and so that tends to mitigate itself overtime, so we’re seeing some of that, but we’re still want to ramp up a bit, so I would still keep that 10% to 11% intact. Joseph D. Gibney – Capital One Securities, Inc.: Okay. I apologize if I missed this in your prepared remarks, but the gross margin run rate on compressor sales alone is high 20s still, is it nudging a little bit higher, just curious as you go a little bit more throughput.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Yes. This quarter was in the mid-20s, but yes I think for the year we are in that mid to high-20s, now I guess I would – since we are kind of in this transition phase of something-to-something with this crude oil price, I don’t know how much more I would press that going forward, but let's see, I’m just here looking on a year-to-date basis, here we are about 28%, so I think mid-20s is a good number to use. Joseph D. Gibney – Capital One Securities, Inc.: Okay. And last one just only alluding to new compression products, I understand if you don’t know lift the – but I’m just trying to understand what are you targeting just moving a little bit higher in terms of the horsepower offering that you bring the table or is it something more packaged even lower horsepower to begin to serve some aspects of the VRU market. I’m just trying to understand what you’re alluding to there.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Yes. Well you know we're still trying to figure out this VRU market from the point of exactly how it’s going to play out, because obviously the [indiscernible] steps in it in effect and there is just not as much movement there in our horsepower range that we thought. We're seeing a lot of little bitty things go out playing 20 or 30 horsepower stuff and we are frankly not real interested in that, I mean we are looking that a little from the point of – its really not a good rental product, its more of a sales for the products that it’s a really a pretty low revenue contribution. But so we’re looking at that little but probably what I was alluding to more so was moving more into that 300 to 500 horsepower range. Joseph D. Gibney – Capital One Securities, Inc.: Got you. Okay, I appreciate Steve. Keep hold on.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Okay. Thanks Joe. Joseph D. Gibney – Capital One Securities, Inc.: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Van Roden from Spitfire Capital. Please state your question. Peter Van Roden – Spitfire Capital LLC: Hey Steve.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

HI Peter. Peter Van Roden – Spitfire Capital LLC: First question. So listening to some of the E&P earnings calls and it sounds like if this oil price continues to kind of struggle, they want to focus on kind of their core plays and so I guess the pain is going to felt disproportion ally across the bad shales and maybe a little less pain in the good shales. Can you talk a little bit about how your exposure varies by kind of those different areas?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Yes. We think we are in the good shales and looking at 2015, if you go back what we were saying a few months ago before the oil price started to soften, we still see the same areas growing now, maybe the rates change is little, but we still think that Utica is going to be a growing area this year and we think the Permian will be a growing area this year I mean 2015, be grown in 2015, we think we’re starting to put more equipment into Oklahoma, we think that will probably be a good area for us. So we think those are the three larger growth areas that we see out of our portfolio and I’ve looked and tried to keep track of all these breakeven points that are published out there on the different basis and everything else and I’m sure you guys do a better job than I do, but its all over the place too. And a lot of this depends on the operator and besides just the basin how efficient they are, but we typically work for the larger operators in these areas so number one they are more active, number they got more infrastructure. So really a lot of their cost or already sunk cost, they are already in there. So going forward, they can tend to concentrate maybe more so on drilling and certainly more so on production. So you know long answer to a short question, but we think the shales we are in are good, will provide some growth opportunities going next tear too. Peter Van Roden – Spitfire Capital LLC: Got it. And then can you go back over to the utilization numbers for the quarter, I think you said its 76%, 77% on the total fleet.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Yes, 76% to 77% out earning 79% to 80% earning revenue plus contracted. Peter Van Roden – Spitfire Capital LLC: Got it. And in general how did the natural gas units hold up this quarter. Was it kind of – do you see an increase in things being sent back?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

No, no increase. It’s just still weak, which is what we’ve seen all year and that’s why I kind of mentioned the October. October was a pretty strong month, so I don’t know – one point is not a trend make obviously, so I don’t really know what that means yet that’s we are getting closer to cooler weather and people are going to hold on to a gas stoves or what it is, but yes we’re certainly hoping for to mitigate some point and I think it will, typically Q4 and Q1 you will get some help on the gas side, we will need a couple of months to prove up what we saw on October. Peter Van Roden – Spitfire Capital LLC: Got it. And then final question, as you kind of start your CapEx planning for 2015 what are you thinking about in terms of getting your engines ordered and think about that – is it going to be in the same level that it has been in 2014 from what you see now?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Well I’m going to hesitate to answer this question too much yet. Like I say what I really want to see is by December timeframe what our customers coming out and saying and we are always market driven, customer pull on that stuff we tend to build according to what we think we can put it out there. And we don’t build a whole lot on just the whole speculation. So I mean at a minimum I wouldn’t – I hesitate to give you a number now Peter, because I just don’t know, I just got to see what the customers are going to start saying. Right now as I mentioned and I think you listened all the big service company’s calls and everybody is saying no change, no issue, no nothing and maybe that’s what's going to happen, but I’m just not smart enough to figure out what some of the customers are going to do. So I’ll let them tell me. Peter Van Roden – Spitfire Capital LLC: Got it. Well thanks Steve.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Okay. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Brown from Global Hunter Securities. Please state your question. Mark Brown – Global Hunter Securities, LLC: Hey, Steve good morning.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Hey Mark. Mark Brown – Global Hunter Securities, LLC: Hey, we just wanted to ask about the flaring sales in the quarter and what's your expectation for flaring going forward. You have talked about the regulations in North Dakota in the past the flaring reduction and wanted to know if that kind of – if you think that’s going to spread to other parts of the country.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Well flares are running around $1 million to $1.25 million a quarter right now, and we’ve always said this and everybody knows this, I’m sure our pages to make sure that flare business has grown quite vigorously last especially three years and we’ve always said its open and closing window, it will get to the point where it will start closing off because of you know number one, pipeline is being laid in, you don’t need flares and or regulation and both are happening. So we expect that business to come back down, but probably half to a third of what it peaked at last year which was around $5 million or $6 million, get back down to the dollar order of a couple of million dollars. Its coming off somewhat now, it’s not all the way down yet, probably in 2015 I would guess we would bottom on that. So I think some of that impact is from that regulation and again pipeline is getting laid so this you don’t even need a flare, so we will get back down to the typical thing if you have a flare out there you know it’s a product that people buy and they never want to use and I think that’s where we will go to once you start getting some of the regulations and the path lines in there, you just have it out there essentially on an emergency or shutdown for a basis. Mark Brown – Global Hunter Securities, LLC: Okay. And just curious on your rental fleet if you still see the trend progressing more on conventional oil, less dry gas and if you still think we are going to see about a 50/50 split between those two in your overall rental fleet maybe by the end of the year.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

: A lot of these gas suppliers come from Associated Gas now. So it would be interesting to see what impact that will have on the gas supply and certainly if its not replaced we will be having dry gas continue to fall, and now wet gas falls so you might actually have a balanced supply demand picture on the gas side which might drive the gas price a little higher. So you know a lot of dynamics to it right now, but I think generally its still going to be an oil driven market the next year. Mark Brown – Global Hunter Securities, LLC: Okay. And just was curious if we do see a downturn due to persistently low oil prices, would that have more of an impact on your rental side of your business or the compressor sales side?

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Yes. Typically in a downturn sales is the one that typically gets hit and we saw that – I mean that’s been the case solved all my career that’s just the case in the industry. NGS experienced that obviously back in 2009 when sales just dried out very quickly and we had a strategy after that point of shifting more towards the rental and we were doing that, But obviously the market shifted us very quickly towards the rental when sales went away. And so now we are in that 75%, 25% roughly versus that quarter depending on sales, but we could go to 75% rental, 25% total sales and of that compressor sales were 10% to 15%. We could conceivably go to zero compressor sales, 10% or 15% hit maybe on the top line overall, but a very minimal impact on the bottom line, because number one sales are that small of a piece or top line now. And then the margin difference were being about a third of rental just didn’t have as much impact on bottom lines that once did. Mark Brown – Global Hunter Securities, LLC: Okay. Well thank you very much. And very much appreciate it.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Okay, appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) At this time, we have no further questions.

Stephen C. Taylor

Management

Okay, well I appreciate everybody joining in for the call. Thanks for your time and look forward to visiting with you again next quarter. Thanks.