NHPEF (NHPEF) Q4 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the New Hope Group FY '26 Q4 Quarterly Activities Report and Investor Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Rob Bishop, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. I am Rob Bishop, Chief Executive Officer of New Hope Group. I am joined here by Rebecca Rinaldi, our CFO; and Dom O'Brien, our Executive General Manager and Company Secretary. This morning, we released our quarterly report for the fourth quarter of the 2026 financial year. Hopefully, you have had a chance to go through the report, but in any case, I will briefly step you through our key highlights before we open up the lines for Q&A. The July quarter marks the end of the 2026 financial year for the New Hope Group. Operationally, it has been a great year for the group, and we are very pleased with our results today. During the quarter, our TRIFR decreased to 3.89, 12% lower than the previous quarter. However, our high potential event frequency moved up in an unfavorable direction from 1.21 in the previous quarter to 4.65. Critical and fatal risk management remains a continuing focus for the group. In response to the increase in high potential events and recent serious events across the broader industry, the group has doubled down in terms of focus of the effectiveness of controls for fatal risks. This has included group-wide safety pauses, increased frontline engagement, and targeted review and verification of critical controls. The safety of our people remains our highest priority, and we are focused on continuous improvements in all aspects of safety and well-being. Bengalla Mine recorded a strong finish to the 2026 financial year, with the operation performing at the targeted 13.4 million coal production for the rate for the quarter on 100% basis. Raw coal production was 3 million tonnes, a 16% increase compared to the previous quarter, as the strip ratio moderated following the significant prior overburden removal in the first half of the year. Saleable coal production was 2.3 million tonnes, up 8% from the previous quarter, driven by the increase in raw coal volumes. At New Acland Mine, the raw coal production totaled 1.7 million tonnes, a 3% increase on the previous quarter, also driven by a reduction in strip ratio. New Acland Mine achieved coal sales of 0.9 million tonnes, 7% lower than the previous quarter, primarily due to rail cancellations across the network, resulting from Queensland Rail-protected industrial action. The group achieved an underlying EBITDA of $169 million, a 30% increase on the previous quarter. The uplift in earnings was driven by improvements in the group's realized pricing with both favorable movements in benchmark indices and foreign exchange. With the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, volatility in energy markets is expected to continue following supply concerns, which underpin support for thermal coal generation as a reliable energy supply. Turning to our full-year results, 2026 marked another great year for New Hope Group as we continue to increase volumes and deliver our organic growth profile. The group achieved saleable coal production of 11.5 million tonnes, an 8% increase on the 2025 year's financial year result, and above the group's guidance range. At New Acland Mine, we continue to successfully ramp up the operation towards a 5 million tonnes per annum target. For the 2026 financial year, New Acland Mine produced 3.3 million tonnes of saleable coal, an uplift of 17% compared to the previous year. The operation was able to take advantage of increased spot rail capacity during the year, achieving coal sales of 3.6 million tonnes, which exceeded guidance. Looking forward, access to the Manning Vale West pit is scheduled for the second half of the calendar year 2026, which will deliver the next step in the production volumes. Over at Bengalla Mine, the 2026 financial year reflected a period of recovery following significant weather events in the Hunter region late in the 2025 financial year. Despite these impacts, the operation delivered a strong finish and showcased its ability to achieve its targeted raw coal production rate. Bengalla Mine delivered saleable coal production and coal sales of 8.2 million tonnes, which exceeded its guidance range. In addition, the operation achieved an FOB cash cost of $81.30 per sales tonne, sitting right at the lower end of guidance range of between $81 to $89 per sales tonne. Despite a challenging backdrop, the group achieved an underlying EBITDA of $514 million for the 2026 financial year and generated operational cash flows of $564 million. We invite you all to tune in on Tuesday the 15th of September as we release our full-year results. We are pleased with our ability to remain a resilient, low-cost producer, and we are looking forward to another safe and productive year ahead. I'll now hand over to the operator to start Q&A session. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first phone question today comes from Glyn Lawcock from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Cash flow generation exceptionally strong. I guess you finished the year with cash well ahead of everyone's expectations. Was there anything to call out in the quarter?

Nothing more than what we have already stated. Certainly, we had a strong second half to the year, and that was continued in the final quarter. But heightened coal prices along with increased production certainly has given a good outcome to get to the cash level where we are at.

I guess, was there a working capital unwind or anything you can call out? Because, $200 million cash in the quarter, $800 million annualized. It is pretty impressive. That is 18% free cash flow yield. So I just wondered if the working capital with it was a one-off.

Yes, I think, there is a slight reduction in coal stocks. I do not have the figure in front of me, but that could have played a part in it. I do not think there was a significant drawdown on receivables.

I guess one thing, Glyn, just to note on it, during Q3, we did have a number of significant outflows. I am sure you have already got the dividends in there, but we also had the cash impact of the convertible bond buyback. So there was a few outliers probably in Q3, which then I guess accelerated the look of Q4 in terms of cash flow.

Okay, that is cool. Rob, I know I am not trying to get too far ahead, but you have now got almost $800 million of available cash. How do you think about how much you want to hang on to of that cash? Obviously, you have got New Acland. And if you could maybe share with us how much you have got left to spend there. Once we get through New Acland, which I think is another 12 months' worth of expenditure, how are you thinking about what is the right level of cash to hold on the balance sheet?

Yes. No, good question, Glyn. I think New Acland, we are sort of partway through executing that capital expenditure. I think we gave guidance of around $130 million required to complete the Manning Vale West pit or opening up that pit with the road realignment and fleet required to open up that pit. That is partway through, and I think as you would have seen in the quarterly, we should be into first coal beginning of next calendar year. That is really the focus from a capital expenditure. We are rounding off a bit more at Bengalla, but following those, capital expenditure should get to more modest levels moving forward, albeit while production is increasing. So cash generation should improve even further than where we have been at, which is a great story. You are quite right. Cash balances are quite high, which is a good problem to have, and certainly we have got a significant franking account balance. So, we will be looking to reward shareholders like we always do and have pretty much every year since we have been around. So that will continue. From a how much cash we want to hold, certainly we still sort of look at it that we need to probably hold a little bit more than what we would have historically going back sort of 5 to 10 years ago. But fair to say our cash balances at the moment are higher than what we would ultimately want to hold on the balance sheet.

Sorry, can I just ask you, in your mind, what was that cash balance 5 to 10 years ago? Your memory is probably better than mine.

When I say that, it is more a case of it was quite easy to go and source funding being a thermal coal mine, going back many years, and you could argue that you could hold less cash. Our view is although we certainly are finding markets which are opening up to us, and we have seen that with the convertible bond recently. I guess we do not want to be in a state of stress if we did have a major stoppage at site. Not that we intend to do that, but if we were in a situation, we would not want to be stressed going to market for cash. The typical banks that would have been there for us previously are not. It is prudent for us to ensure that we have got a bit of extra cash on our balance sheet, just from a risk management perspective.

Would that have been $100 million to $200 million 5 to 10 years ago? You are probably thinking 50% more than that? I am just trying to understand what was the previous thinking 5 to 10 years ago.

Yes. It was probably closer to one. You would also need to take into account the operations which we had operating. Up until recently, we were a single asset mine, whereas probably 5 to 10 years ago, we had probably 3 to 4 operations. There is a lot of things we need to take into account. We certainly increased our minimum cash view, when we just had Bengalla going and Acland was going into care and maintenance. Obviously, with Acland ramping up, there is good solid cash flows coming out of that. So the risk is spread a bit more. But certainly, as I said, cash is probably materially higher than what we would see as a minimum cash balance. And we have got a significant franking account balance. So I think it is fair to say there will be a reasonable dividend paid.

The next phone question comes from Daniel Roden from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Congratulations on the results.

Thank you.

A couple for me. I just wanted to get a bit of color on, I guess predominantly Bengalla, but if I look at your strip ratio for the quarter, it has come back down to 4. I probably just wanted a bit of color around, I guess, operationally, what you are seeing at the mine. Is 4 strip ratio, is that kind of more the new precedent that we're expecting into FY '27 and FY '28, or is that a bit just of a quarterly short term kind of recalibration of the pits?

It was certainly a strong quarter. We previously provided guidance on strip ratio, going back, I think, to last year or last year's full year result, I think. You can probably look to that for some more detail. Certainly, at both the strip ratio is very low, and certainly, looking forward to remain in the 4s on average for Bengalla for the life of the mine. For Acland, we will see some swings in between quarters, but certainly, in the range of 4 is probably a fair estimate. I would probably recommend you go back and have a look at that prior presentation where we had that detail relative, and I think we had both Acland and Bengalla on that slide relative to industry.

Yes. No, thank you. Yields as well, yields have come back a little bit. Notwithstanding it is within line of normal kind of things. Was that, I guess the lower yields, an increase in saleable, was that a deliberate response to, I guess what you are seeing in the spreads between API 5 and Newcastle? Or is that a, I guess, recovery sequencing into areas that are a bit marginally lower quality coal relative to prior quarters? I guess just a little bit of color around what is going on there.

Yes. You have touched on a few points there and it is fair to say that our wash strategy is very much driven by what we are seeing in the market. We do have the flexibility and particularly since the growth project where we have upgraded the wash plant, we do have the ability to flex between periods of high discount or low discount between high and low ash coal sales to really maximize the profitability of the mine. You will see that happen throughout the year. We also are in a mine which is, we have got a number of seams there, which are not mined for a number of months. You will see some swings between the high ash and low ash on a quarterly basis and yields as a result. But probably if you sort of look more over an annualized basis, it will be pretty consistent year on year.

Yes. Okay. Last one from me for now. The sustaining CapEx, you decreased guidance for that mid-year, and then you have come in below and on deferral of some of the capital programs. To the extent you can talk about it, how much of that deferral would we be expecting FY '27? Or is it still a bit of an open question on what is happening in Manning Vale West and the rail?

Yes. So I think really the focus from a capital perspective, and it is something which we, it is similar to cost, we are very focused on minimizing CapEx when we can. So that really comes down to good management of overhauls, pushing our assets so that we maximize the productivities, but also balancing that up with risk of unplanned breakdowns. So we put a lot of focus into really optimizing that work in the last year, and that has meant that we have been able to push out some sustaining capital. Some of that is deferral, but some of it is just taking it out and ensuring we are keeping our cash outflows to a minimum.

Okay, sounds good. I had a few questions maybe on Malabar, but I might break you and let others ask some questions.

[Operator Instructions] Moving to webcast questions. The first webcast question is: Could you please provide an update on the Brisbane rail network? You mentioned there was constraints in the quarterly.

Yes. Unfortunately, rail performance in the fourth quarter was impacted by QR or Queensland Rail protected industrial action. This has been well-publicized. There is also the complication of Cross River Rail outages. We have been working very closely with QR to try and mitigate as much of that impact as possible. But certainly, we have seen some constraints and has resulted in lower overall paths provided during the quarter.

next webcast question is: Safety in the coal industry has been at the forefront of media in recent weeks. What are you doing at New Hope Group to ensure safety at sites?

Yes. No, it is a good question. I think probably first of all, just want to acknowledge those affected by recent events. Mining is a large industry, but a small community. The events which we have seen probably go back only 3 or 4 weeks ago with the 2 fatalities across the east seaboard is very tragic. It has also prompted us to really reflect on our own sites. Consistent with our values, we have held safety pauses across the group and really had a particular focus on listening to the frontline people, understanding what they are seeing and experiencing, rather than assuming that we know all the answers and we run safety perfectly. It is always a journey, for want of a better term. It is always going to be something which we can never keep our eyes off. We have got a strong culture of sharing across the group, learning, and really challenging ourselves Our primary focus of safety is just to really focus on risks capable of causing fatal or serious harm. Certainly it is an area of focus for the group and will remain so.

Going back to the phone questions, we now have a follow-up from Daniel Roden from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Just a few cheeky ones, if I can. I was just wondering with the, I guess, the 25% or aggregate 26% equity ownership, how you are expecting to account that on the books going forward now that it is in its ramp-up period and starting to generate a bit of cash.

Yes. It is certainly in its ramp-up phase. We were down on site probably about a month or so ago. Got down underground to see the longwall operating, which was great to see. Certainly, for the team there, it is an exciting time and productivities will continue to ramp up from this point onwards. It should get to a point in the not-too-distant future of being cash generative, which is exciting.

Yes. Okay. I guess, you saw Malabar picked up some tenements from Mount Arthur, the BHP asset to the north. To the extent you can talk about it, do you have, I guess, any indication around how that might fit into the, I guess, production and development pipeline, given that New South Wales has a ban on greenfield developments now? That seems like a pretty good strategic asset to have in that portfolio.

Yes. No, it is a good point. That in itself, that transaction was a good outcome. It provided assistance to BHP but also provided future optionality for Malabar. You just pointed out the stance from New South Wales government. I think that really supports the kind of transaction which happened. This would not be regarded as greenfield if the team at Malabar were to progress any potential opportunities for further development in those tenements.

Yes. Okay. I just wanted to ask as well, it's just a bit of a, maybe potentially left field, but you've seen Malabar has been, I guess, semi-publicly doing a bit of a data center play out the Mayfield's kind of energy precinct and data center project. I guess, do you have a, given you have a fairly material stake in Malabar, do you have a view on, I guess, how that shapes up and what the, I guess, mechanisms there are and how that gets monetized into the portfolio? I guess firstly, I'd like to get a view on that. Are you looking at any similar opportunities given your tenements are a stone's throw away as well? It seems like there's a lot of moves in that area to go and try and monetize data centers and battery developments and everything like that. Yes. Cheers.

Yes. No, it's a good question. I think just with regards to New Hope, if you look, I guess, at the Malabar set up with regards to land and access to various infrastructure, et cetera, Bengalla is probably in a bit of a different space. It's not something we're actively pursuing at Bengalla, but it is certainly a potential opportunity in the future for the Malabar team. It's fair to say the focus or number one focus is on the Maxwell Mine and ramping that up. But there's also some exciting opportunities on the side, for want of a better term, for the data centers, battery, et cetera, which Wayne and the team are progressing. Then some, I guess, larger decisions will have to be made on those potential investments in the future given their quantum.

The next phone questioner is from Christopher Creech from Morgans Financial. Please go ahead.

On the fourth quarter. Just a cheeky question from me, Rob, just around New Acland. I mean, you guys had a pretty good year there, and last year in your end of year presentation pack, you put some color in there around your growth potential for all 3 of those assets, Bengalla, New Acland, and Maxwell. That implies that you are getting to your nameplate capacity at New Acland by sort of, let's say, '29 onwards. Is that still holding true, or are you thinking that you potentially could get there slightly earlier? How should we view the ramp-up to nameplate for New Acland, if you would be so kind?

Yes, I think, and it's probably been consistent with what I've said previously. We're pushing as hard as we can to ramp up that asset, obviously in a safe manner. We haven't been holding back, for want of a better term. Opening up the Manning Vale West pit is key to that. As I said, we'll be on first coal first quarter calendar year next year, and that'll really sort of open up the mine to get up to that 5 million product. I think as far as our target goes, that probably hasn't changed. But certainly, as we've probably seen this year, we're probably a little bit ahead of schedule. So, we're managing the rail or the short-term rail impacts of QR. But certainly, we'll be pushing as hard as possible to get to that 5 million tonne run rate.

The next phone question is a follow-up from Glyn Lawcock from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Maybe one for Rebecca. The Bengalla cost jumped around a lot. I mean, first half was $84, then you went down to $74, back up to $84.50 in Q4. And the $spend was, if you multiply by the coal sales, quite low in Q3. Why is it jumping? Is it somewhere in the middle as we exit '26, or is the final quarter more indicative of how we should think about Bengalla moving forward?

Yes, I think probably the final quarter is more indicative of Bengalla. But as Rob touched on, cost control is a key focus of ours. We are trying to really, I guess, stay in front of those inflationary impacts which we have seen across the industry over the last 6 months. Just to touch on the higher unit rate for Q4, though. There were, I guess, less sales than we originally planned, and I think in terms of waste, that first half of the year, we had to move a lot more waste to get the pit back into sequence following the significant weather event back end of 2025. But Yes, I think coupled with inflationary impacts, we will try and really hold tight on the full-year cost. But noting Bengalla, and you have seen the pit, Glyn, it is quite generally pretty consistent. So when sales potentially move out of the plan, that does drive a bit of a variance in the unit cost.

Okay. But the final quarter, it had the diesel in. Is there a new contract for the workers that kicks in this year?

No, that is next year. Sorry, this year that we are in now. That is, I think, August, September. That will be negotiated and finalized.

Okay. Maybe just a final question going back to you, Rob. Obviously, last quarter there has been a couple of sales completed. The Anglo American sale second time around, plus the old Rio Tinto mine, which gone a couple of ways. Anything out there exciting you or grabbing your attention? Or is the real focus all just internal at the moment, there is nothing external?

Yes, I don't think there's anything external which is getting us excited. Our focus is, and has always been, focusing on the organic growth piece. We're almost there. Nothing really out on the market at the moment, which is the right fit for our assets.

That does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll hand the conference back to Rob for any closing remarks.

No worries. Thanks very much for your time today, all. Appreciate you dialing in, and have a great day. Thank you.