Earnings Labs

New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 8, 2013

$55.54

-1.25%

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Transcript

Laurence Downes

Management

Okay. I think we'll get started. We are doing things a little differently today and that we announced our quarterly numbers this morning I think as everyone knows, but we'll be webcasting this. So, we'll have people participating via computers as well. So I've got to read an opening here which I don't like to do that, but good afternoon, you'll figure that out. Welcome to our meeting today. It is being conducting in conjunction with our quarterly earnings telecast and webcast since we are combining this with the earnings call. All of the telephone participants who remain in the listen-only mode for the entire event, but for those joining us by webcast, they will have the opportunity to submit questions via the web. If you want to do that, you must login to the webcast play, which is available at www.njresources.com. Okay, so that's for the people on the phone welcome and welcome to all of you here today. Thank you for joining us. You'll see that we gave you a gift, that's a little different than usual. Normally, it's like a pen while the last time it was [taffy], but this time we've given you a little bit of lantern which has a little bit of a story. We had originally purchased these as our gift for our shareowners at our annual meeting which was two weeks ago, today. They got put to a use that we did not expect on October 29. So we didn't have enough for today. We quickly had to reorder them. But our shareowners who many of them fatefully come to the annual meeting every year, the median age is about 75 they loved these, but we started getting a lot of calls because they couldn't turn them on, okay, seriously. The batteries…

Dennis Puma

Head of Investor Relations

I will read those questions.

Laurence Downes

Management

Okay, got it. Thanks. Questions comments Paul?

Unidentified Analyst

Management

I have is a question on your natural gas infrastructure build for vehicles, which seems like natural gas vehicles should be taken off but I'm just wondering, if you're seeing because you said some of the customer are talking to you about doing that are they waiting for potential incentives from the government to get them to utilize or I'm trying to look that how you lay it out and what's happening in the industry, because there's a all money can spend solar and electric cars and seems like natural gas is where it should be going, and absolutely huge for you.

Laurence Downes

Management

And the issue has been, when the -- I wish it was as simple as the price of natural gas had come down that should stimulate the market, but the missing ingredients has been infrastructure. And that's the purpose of the filing is to create that infrastructure and create those incentives to begin to grow the market. So there is a process of education, negotiation that's going on with them right now but Kathy you may want to add something to that as well.

Kathy Ellis

Management

Yeah, we're very close with two customers on an agreement to build those stations. And we're pretty confident that we'll be able to spend $10 million that we're able to spend via that filing on between five and seven stations in the next year.

Laurence Downes

Management

But the objective is to make sure we're addressing the infrastructure side of the question to begin to develop the infrastructure that will stimulate that market.

Kathleen Ellis

Management

And Paul, sorry Paul, I don't know how detailed do you want to get but to do that what the filing does is requires the host to take 20% of the take from that station and make it open to the public. So it should stimulate both business and individual customer use.

Laurence Downes

Management

Sure guy, you need to now give that back, yeah.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Just curious on the government side in terms of getting vehicles in trucks to convert, are you seeing any incentives coming down the pipe there, which would obviously really expand both the marketplace. And then secondarily is there any, going to be any natural gas tax on the - because it's very cheap compared to fuel right now and I'm just wondering if that comes in, what impact that might have?

Laurence Downes

Operator

I have [dialed] into second question first, I'm not aware of any natural gas tax certainly in New Jersey there's a lot of discussion going on about a lot of things at the federal level. But for your first question is what we're trying to do here is really step one is to let's start with this infrastructure right now, let's see how customers react to that and I think that will then give us some insight about the broader market potential in New Jersey.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Related to that and also more importantly I think to the conversion process, what would be the difference in the prices - the attraction to the people who are converting and should be an attraction to people of putting in CNG into their fleets because it's cheaper than gas ware.

Laurence Downes

Operator

Right.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

What's the profitability to you on an immediate basis and on a long run basis if that differed?

Laurence Downes

Operator

Well we on a natural gas side we'll earn on that investment that we're making in infrastructure on NGV side. On the conversion side a lot of that is broken equipment where people actually they've got to make that conversion. And once again the amount that money that we earn is ultimately a function of the investment, but also that's increased sales to us as well.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

You're selling the equipment?

Laurence Downes

Operator

New Jersey Natural Gas is not selling equipment, Home Services may be selling the equipment but the biggest pieces what New Jersey Natural Gas will make on the -- will make on that and that will.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

If you (Inaudible) gas.

Laurence Downes

Operator

Well the sale of the gas and actually, certainly going down to it's the infrastructure itself and if you look at the number that I gave earlier that will be part of the $3.5 million that we expect from all of our customer growth going forward.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay.

Laurence Downes

Operator

Now did I - if I'm not making that good?

Unidentified Analyst

Management

No, I'm a little bit confused. The, I don't live in your service area, okay, I'm the President of my condominium here in the city of New York, and we've got 200 and some odd units in the condominium, and we have found someone who was willing to do the conversion of (Inaudible)

Laurence Downes

Operator

Right.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Oil to gas.

Laurence Downes

Operator

Right.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Based on the savings that we have over period of years and that taking 95% of those savings of the year to repay themselves and 5% to the billing to - incent us to doing it. Now, whether that's a good deal or bad deal I don't know, we'll have to see what savings, but I'm just thinking about, these individual customers you're talking about primarily about residential or in terms of commercial?

Laurence Downes

Operator

Majority, yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And so what is the impact on the individual customer, they have to go and buy the equipment and do the conversion in that way and spend thousands of dollars for what they will then see as a payback over a period of year.

Laurence Downes

Operator

It will be the investment that New Jersey Natural Gas has to make and then there will be the investment in the equipment if you go back to the slide where I was comparing natural gas versus the others, that's was really going to effect the payback period then.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay.

Laurence Downes

Operator

But from what we get New Jersey Natural Gas in this context, it will be that increase throughput to support that infrastructure going forward and those economics are very good for us.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And the follow up, to this gentleman's question. You say New Jersey Natural Gas has to make an investment, but isn't that just connecting the street line into the house?

Laurence Downes

Operator

Absolutely, when street line is here, absolutely, that's what I'm saying, those are profitable for us and when you look at the pie chart, that's why we've got it broke, we've got those slices or showing you exactly where those conversions are relative to for example (Inaudible). Craig, you may want to add something to that. It's Craig Lynch, our Head of Operations.

Craig Lynch

Analyst

No Larry is saying, you hit it on nail on the head, when we have infrastructure out on the street we're converting those types of conversions are very unprofitable. Not a lot of heavy investment in the underground infrastructure.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

I don't live in your area, I live in Westchester County, I'm a Cognac customer, on that Cognac and then the [state] I think are coming up with credits if you convert I think Cognac has won, I am a natural gas customer anyway so I am not a potential convert. But getting back to the service area, if you have like 100 customers in your services just throughout a number and 30% on natural gas does that mean you have a potential conversion of the other 70% that have propane, electricity, fuel oil what are the numbers there I mean is there room for tremendous improvement as long as natural gas prices stay where they are?

Laurence Downes

Operator

Let me just -- first of all I think the, let me just go back to that side, it will be a lot easier to explain it. Okay here we go, that's obviously the relative cost, but here's the conversion market, okay and you can see the total there, right. As we continue to develop our system, okay and as we expand our mains and all that we would expect that some of the pieces in the near the main and the off the main would become a potential conversions for us which is why we feel optimistic about the longer term potential for that market. The focus right now is on a non-heat okay and these are customers who have natural gas services not for heat as for non-heat but also those on the main and we're trying to convert those as quickly economically as possible. And clearly, the decision to do that will be influenced by this relationship but it will also be influenced by equipment that has broken now and has to be replaced and on that basis this is actually this makes a very clear with the customer ship dealership there.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you.

Laurence Downes

Operator

You're welcome thanks. I knew we should've brought them the marketing guy with, we'll come right back to you.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

[Gaspard Barnet from Morningstar] Just couple of quick questions on the regulatory front, you might have mentioned it over earlier but I missed it when would you be filing for or have you already filed for renewal of the CIP program?

Laurence Downes

Operator

That will happen later this year.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay. And secondly do you have a time table on the O&M deferral filing that you've made it part of your-

Laurence Downes

Operator

That will be the part of the next step base rate filing and is there's not a plan to do that right now. We have to do that by November 2015, but when we look at the company's overall our profile its performance and all that we don't have a plan to file a case right now.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

May those taken that you're waiting for a approval to use that accounting treatment.

Laurence Downes

Operator

That we've tried, we have filed right now for the approval to differ those costs. We are comfortable base upon passed into New Jersey that we can defer those that's why I motioned the ACE and NTS. But then the ones those are deferred that will go into the analysis of when to actually file the case. Mark, do you want to add something to that, Mark Sperduto.

Mark Sperduto

Analyst

Larry, hit it on the head, basically we requested the filing the strong precedent in New Jersey to defer a storm-related cost, even though it's unusual for a gas company to do so via CNG, in its recent approval offered Sandy related cost and some gas cost associated with. So we're comfortable that the asset is good and it will be subject to review and recovering the future rate case.

Laurence Downes

Operator

So it will be part of the overall review of what then drives this and but when we figure out the timing of when the base rate case will be filed but no later than November 2015, so little over that three years. Gentleman, up here.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

This is as much a compliment as a question but--

Laurence Downes

Operator

I'll take those.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And famous Sherlock Holmes novel, you know, the dog that didn't bark but should have, was the [quote] and we've heard a lot of barking from the governor of New York and mayor of New York about various entities that they felt didn't perform their function as well as should have been performed, I won't mention them by name everybody knows who they are. I don't recall hearing your company -- actually my company, I'm the shareholder being criticized. So is that part of the reason you're standing with such confidence now talking about the rate case and other forth coming elements that you really do feel you have a good relationship with the regulators and political factors, governor et cetera in New Jersey.

Laurence Downes

Operator

The reason on the Superstorm, I'm not supposed to call a hurricane. But Superstorm sandy side is what our people actually did this is tough, very tough. The decision to shut down those areas was a very tough decision. But, the way our people responded absolutely inspirational. One of the thing that we did when we putting our strategy together, is that we are going to communicate with the Governor's office with our regulators, with the local mayors of every one in those towns and the media every single day, which is what we did. So I think there is more to response. You may have read, and for those of you who live in the service territory, there were estimates out there as to how long this was going to take had no idea where this is coming from. The bottom-line -- and quite frankly when it first started we didn't know because we had not have the opportunity to actually get on to the Barrier Islands, and to get into Long Beach island and see what that was. But our team got this done and exceeded expectations and I think that was - we weren't mentioned. But the credit for that goes to our employees because they did that. You detect the passion in how I'm talking about this today because when you look at our stock, we went with the whole Group we went down after the fiscal year. And I think, there were many reasons for that , you know, fiscal cliff, than dividend taxes for that. But we have underperformed since the hurricane and as we got into -- we got to a 52 weak low on November 16 and feedback that we've been getting is because of a fear of what's going to happen…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

My question is evolving the energy services area. And the broader pictures of implications of what's happening with additional load and additional opportunities, a number of us remember not that long ago, energy services was a significant driver of the bottom-line for the company and that's not in our in our forebrains right now, but NJ is picking up additional load the conversions the new, this is happening in other places in the North East. We have nuclear and coal capacity which is scheduled for shutting down that may be something we should start focusing on. I guess are you seeing in the cold snap like last month, is there buoyancy in pricing and capacity values which could reopen the opportunity that was so interesting a few years go?

Laurence Downes

Operator

Let me make couple of points. When you back 2, 3 years. First of all the team manager areas has done a tremendous job of the face of market that has changed dramatically. In you slide deck you can see we put a slide n there that goes through how we have benefit from lower natural gas prices. And what our team has been able to do is to remain profitable in that difficult environment which is something that a lot of people have not able to do that, we've seen a lot of changes. But they've also being able to expand that business model to produce the services and all that, that's number one, team-driven, and have done a great job with that. Second, when you go back to 2008 NJRES had a tremendous year but the utility was also going through the regulatory cycle, New Jersey Natural Gas have been out of a rate case from 1994 to 2008, the relationship between the two the regulated and the unregulated earnings it changed. And you've seen since that once we come out of that regulatory cycle, that's gone back. Looking longer term and I'm going to ask Steve Westhoven to talk in just a moment. We are looking very carefully as to what the dynamics are showing. There is still new infrastructure that's coming on there. There is demand. We had a very good January, you know it did react to weather and I'm communicating that through expressing my view where those earnings are going to be relative to last year, but Steve why don't you add couple of points to that.

Steve Westhoven

Analyst · people have not able to do that, we've seen a lot of changes. But they've also being able to expand that business model to produce the services and all that, that's number one, team-driven, and have done a great job with that. Second, when you go back to 2008 NJRES had a tremendous year but the utility was also going through the regulatory cycle, New Jersey Natural Gas have been out of a rate case from 1994 to 2008, the relationship between the two the regulated and the unregulated earnings it changed. And you've seen since that once we come out of that regulatory cycle, that's gone back. Looking longer term and I'm going to ask Steve Westhoven to talk in just a moment. We are looking very carefully as to what the dynamics are showing. There is still new infrastructure that's coming on there. There is demand. We had a very good January, you know it did react to weather and I'm communicating that through expressing my view where those earnings are going to be relative to last year, but Steve why don't you add couple of points to that

Just to answer your question yes, I think that the cold weather that we've experienced recently, in sharp contrast what we experienced last year you know when it was very warm. And over that period we saw a tremendous price action in the market and certainly a real need for services in the natural gas market. And I think some of that growth that you just mentioned by the retirement of nuclear plants, retirement of coal is really coming through the market. And that was essentially demonstrated by that price action. And looking forward we continue to see growth in production and I think that there is going to be tremendous growth to use that production within the U.S in the electric gen market and the industrial market and the needs and the services that that market needs to do well. We're going to well positioned to take care of that, so we're encouraged looking forward.

Laurence Downes

Operator

Okay.

Kathy Ellis

Management

Larry, we have one question, those attending by webcast. (Inaudible) first of all he apologizes he would like to have been here couldn't make it today. And then he adds thanks for getting us CVE revenue breakup between SREC sales and energy and other, that's very helpful. My question pertains to Q1, what would enter the decision to make the 25,000 of SREC sales, was most of that sold forward?

Laurence Downes

Operator

I will let Glenn take that.

Glenn Lockwood

Analyst

Yeah, on Q1 sales, the vast majority of those sales were forward sales of SREC that we had hedged the year before and that's why the Q1 sales which we are getting about 25,000 is a lot of more than you would expect when you have about 50,000 a year being generated. So yes, a lot of that was due to some hedging we had done the prior fiscal year.

Laurence Downes

Operator

Thanks, Glenn. (Inaudible)

Kathy Ellis

Management

That's it.

Laurence Downes

Operator

Okay. I think we are done. Thank you so much for joining us here today and for your support. We appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your telephone lines.