Earnings Labs

New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 17, 2016

$55.68

-0.94%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.15%

1 Week

+6.27%

1 Month

+13.15%

vs S&P

+9.77%

Transcript

Larry Downes

Management

[Technical difficulty] second attempt at this meeting. Thanks for coming for the second attempt, and I promise you the story that we told you about why it got cancelled was true, but anyway, I do hope that didn't cause any inconvenience. Before we get started, I just want to cover the fact that our presentation today is being webcast, so that those who are on the webcast, if you have a question, please send it to dpuma -- you know Dennis, dpuma@njresources.com, and those questions will be announced, and then, we will answer them during the Q&A period. Now, what we're going to do today, we have a number of presenters as you know, what we'll do is we'll take questions at the end of each one of the presentations. I think that that's the most efficient process, and so that's what we will do and there will still be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of the presentation as well. So, let me begin by introducing our company attendees. We have Larry Barth who is our Director of Corporate Strategy. Larry spends a lot of his time in the Clean Energy business and has a very deep understanding of everything that's going on in that business, and particularly in the area of public policy in New Jersey, because as you know there are things that are under consideration and changing right now. Laura Conover, our Chief of Staff; Laura is in the back. Kathy Ellis, our Executive Vice President of Policy and Strategic Development. Joanne Fairechio, we all know in the back, Director of Investor Relations. Jamie Kent, our Treasurer; Jamie is a relatively new member of our team. Jamie is here today. There are a lot of people as you can tell, Mike Kinney,…

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Thanks, Larry. Good morning everyone. As you saw, this morning we announced our fiscal 2016 earnings guidance -- fiscal 2016 earnings results of $138.1 million or $1.61 per share. This compares to 151.5 or $1.78 per share last year. Results of the lower year-over-year are in line with our earnings guidance as communicated earlier in the year. Importantly 2016 earnings reflect strong contributions from each one of our business segments, and I'm going into more details shortly in the presentation. But before I do that I want to cover some fiscal 2016 highlights. As Larry mentioned, we increased our dividend for the 23rd time in 21 years to a rate of $2.0 per share. Additionally, we provided shareholders with return of 12.6% this year. We grew our customer base, some of the base rate case, and invested $200 million in infrastructure at New Jersey Natural Gas this year. We received our draft environmental impact statement from FERC for the PennEast pipeline project, an important step forward for the project. And finally, we constructed five ITC-eligible commercial projects and added 1,123 customers to our Sunlight Advantage program. Looking at New Jersey Natural Gas on slide 26, you can see that we delivered net financial earnings of $76.1 million this year as compared to $76.3 million last year. By the decrease year-over-year, improvements of margin from customer growth and contributions from our infrastructure programs were offset by lower BGSS results and higher depreciation and O&M expenses. We saw an increase of 4% in customer additions this year. This customer additions combined with the conversion of a single large industrial customer from interruptible firm service added incremental utility of $5.4 million this year. We have invested $19 million in our SAFEGREEN program, and saw an increase of $800,000 in gross margin from that…

Mariellen Dugan

Management

Thank you, Pat. Good morning everyone. This morning I'm going to review some of the key attributes of our utility New Jersey Natural Gas Company including customer growth and infrastructure program. New Jersey Natural Gas has a vibrant service area. Our annual customer growth average is about 1.6% and last year fiscal 2016 we had the highest number of customer additions since 2007. We continue to receive high customer satisfaction ratings and recently we were named most trusted utility brand and an environmental and utility champion by cogent report. We have a collaborative and constructive relationship with our regulators in New Jersey port of public utilities and we have several infrastructure programs that benefit our customers directly by providing resiliency and reliability to our system but also promote stay policy by creating jobs. Now let's talk for a few minutes about why our territory, our service area is so attractive. We are located between two major metropolitan areas, New York and Philadelphia both of which have strong job markets. The median household income in our service area is above both the state and national averages, and people like to live near the beach. We have 100 miles of beautiful New Jersey coastline area in our service area, and particularly what we're seeing is active adults and retirees are moving to our service area. We're seeing a lot of these communities spring up particularly in Ocean County. We captured 95% of the residential construction market and we have a strong penetration in the multifamily market which is one of the fastest customer segments growing across the country. We also have a strong conversion market. Now there are several key trends that we think are going to support future customer growth in our area and I'd like to talk about a few…

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Thanks. So just to focus on the key messages for New Jersey Natural Gas Company I think it's clear that long term infrastructure investment, customer growth are going to drive the growth of New Jersey Natural Gas Company and importantly there are a lot of opportunities to continue to do that. I think Mariellen mentioned a very important statistic going back to 2008 that number was over $800 million and the impact on our system in terms of its performance has been outstanding. A lot of reasons for that, you get a better sense this morning of why we're optimistic about our ability to grow by 1.6% demographics in our service territory are excellent. We're being aided by the price of natural gas; the ability to work with our regulators continues to be important as it has been really over a long period of time right now. The SRL which is an important part of our future infrastructure plan that we're working on right now that will help us promote resiliency with a feed into Ocean County. It's been approved by the board of public utilities. We're going through the rest of that process right now. And I think the main message from a financial point of view is that we continue to believe that as the company grows that the majority of our net financial earnings will come from New Jersey Natural Gas Company. So with that let me open it up for questions. Larry?

Steve Westhoven

Management

Thanks, Larry, good morning everybody, this morning I am going to be reviewing a few of our non-utility businesses. First I am going to start with clean energy ventures and talk about mid-stream and PennEast and move on to NJR Energy Services and discuss some of the market conditions that we are seeing there. EV is focused on developing, owning and operating portfolio of renewable energy power projects. We concentrate on three specific categories -- commercial solar, residential solar and onshore wind. Energy Ventures was established in 2010 and since that time, has met the needs of our customers to clean and reliable and affordable power. It leverages NJR brand recognition and diversify NJR into one of the fastest growing segments in the electric business. EV takes advantage of NJR's strength to execute plan. We have delivered approximately 27 commercial solar facilities, five wind farms, and over 5,000 residential solar customers. Over the past five years we have invested $600 million in the clean energy market. These assets provide many sources of revenue among them, tax savings from ITC and PTC, solar renewable energy certificates or SRECs. These payments from residential customers are energy sales or electric sales from wind and solar fields. Last December congress extended the ITC and the PTC. The ITC is tax credit utilized when investments in solar are made. PTC is a production tax grade that's utilized when windmill produces electricity and as a result of this we have developed a new strategy to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these extensions. The details of the extensions are listed here, but generally speaking they add certainty, the energy investments in our planning horizon. So what are the major impacts of these extensions? The IT extension has done number of things. It has increased the…

Larry Downes

Management

Okay. So, just to give a summary of some of the main points of Steve's presentation, I think we've made clear in clean energy ventures the area that we are going to focus on and the areas that we are going to stay away from and that is solar in New Jersey as well as on to our wind and you could see how we are executing those projects. When Pat speaks in just a few minutes here, you'll get a sense of the capital that we expect to invest in that over the next several years. The areas that we are investing, New Jersey is one of the fastest growing solar markets in the country and that is obviously because of the favorite -- favorable policy environment that we have in New Jersey. Steve alluded to the legislation that's currently pending in New Jersey that's past the senate. The assembly will be voting on that on Monday. The extensions of the tax incentives at the end of the last year, I know there was some uncertainty with that, but those ultimately were extended and that gave us more certainty as far as those incentive goes. We take what I consider to be very conservative approach to our SREC hedging strategy to take as much risk out of that as we possibly can, and I think a topic that we are talking about here this morning, we tend to focus on the RPS which is obviously important which I have referred to as really the centre of the universe in New Jersey as far as clean energy investments go. But, it is very important to understand the demand side of that equation and understand the buying patterns that go along with that. I think Steve has laid that out very…

Pat Migliaccio

Management

So, Mariellen and Steve walked you through many of our long-term infrastructure projects. You see those, and in addition we got our capital expenditures we have planned for NJR on slide 60. We plan on spending $700 million at New Jersey Natural Gas to serve new customers, to maintain safety and reliability and to prove resiliency. Importantly, and as you can see here, our combination of our new customer spend, SAFE II and NJ RISE which equates approximately 40% of the anticipated capital expenditures over this planning horizon are earnings current returns. Looking now to the non-regulatory business segments, we will continue to build on the success of our residential solar program Sunlight Advantage, where as you saw from the slide early in the presentation, demand for the product, which has been competitively priced and offer Clean Energy to new customers, continues. We will spend $35 million to $43 million over the course of 2017 through 2019 on new residential solar customers. Additionally and subsequent to our last update, because of the ITC/PTC expansion, we are going to be investing in incremental $160 million in both meter commercial and some good connected solar projects to the 2017 through 2018 timeframe. We remain committed to the wind space as well, and you can see in '17 and '18 and '19, we will invest $200 million in wind investments, in wind projects, predominantly in areas where the energy prices are supportive or baring that where we expect the renewal policies will drive our investments. All told, we will invest $600 million over the '17 to '19 timeframe in renewable energy investments, which as Steve alluded to earlier will result in nearly 500 megawatts of installed solar capacity during that timeframe. How we're going to pay for it? With strong cash flow operations for one, 2016 was a bit of anomalous year from a cash flow perspective. We saw the impact phonetically of a warm winter, as well as a voluntary pension contribution of approximately $30 million, which we don't expect to repeat for the planning horizon. When you look at the impact of the base rate case, we get some more normalized cash flow from operations of between $250 million to $270 million. Additionally, we've got some modest equity needs over that timeframe. We plan to invest $200 million of equity between 2017 and 2019. The combination of our strong sort of for operations and our appropriate financing plans, we believe will result in maintaining our existing credit rating. So, I will head on capital expenditures and cash flows. Does anyone have any questions? I think Brian or someone had a -- by a fraction.

Q - Unidentified Analyst

Management

Can you tell us what the BGSS incentive assumption is in the 2017 guidance relative to the $50 million reported in 2016?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

So, we will provide discrete BGSS incentive guidance given the uncertainties of the marketplace. I think it's fair to say that when you look at the midpoint of the guidance range for NJNG as a whole and are --- midpoint of their expected earnings contribution, that would translate into approximately a $1.2 of NFEPS [ph]. Historically, the BGSS incentives have contributed about $0.05, so that's probably you know, from an assumption perspective would be fair for what you should assume.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

So it was the 50 million that you reported in 2016, is that considered normalized even though you had a warm winter?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

No, if you look over the course of, say, fiscal year 2014, '15 and '16, the BGSS incentive results have been higher than what they have been historically, excuse me, which is in a range of about $10 million to $11 million.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay, thank you.

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Hi. Could you give us your GAAP earnings for the fourth quarter and full year against last year, and through the first three quarters you were nursing some losses on derivatives they were unrealized, could you talk about what happened to those or what you see happening to those going…

Pat Migliaccio

Management

So, we will provide GAAP earnings as part of the reconciliation table. I've actually got it -- excuse me, we do provide net financial earnings, and the reason for that predominantly is because of the swings and derivatives, and we believe that net financial earnings is a more meaningful measure of our performance. The derivatives that we engage in are generally related to Steve Westhoven's businesses and the Energy Services. So, natural gas futures contracts and basis contracts, and it's difficult to predict with any accuracy what the ultimate value of those and will depend on the price and the time of month at the end. So we are at a -- I don't offhand know the GAAP earnings but we'll be filing the 10K by Wednesday of next - sorry, Tuesday of next week. You'll see this at the point in time. Oh sorry Sam.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Pat, I think you mentioned with NJNG you saw some increased O&M can you elaborate on that at all? And is that kind of a one off thing or something that we should expect?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

More of a one off thing, as a matter of fact the primary driver that was really higher depreciation expenses, so if you look at the variance depreciation it was up year on year close to $4 million. That warm winter cut a couple of different ways so the advantage of that is we were able to do some work that we wouldn't otherwise normally able to and that accelerated to earlier in the year with some projects and services.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you.

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Yes. Did Barry have a question? Okay. So seeing no more questions I'll turn the presentation over to Mariell.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

After you receive all the permits for the SRL how many months will it take to actually complete the project?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Mariellen?

Mariellen Dugan

Management

We are predicting right now that estimating that we will have the project in service in fiscal 2018, and we have assumed into that the construct, the amount of time it will take to construct the project.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Hi, since so many of your new customers are retirees that love the New Jersey coast are any of the recent tax changes thought to be helpful or harmful or they cancel each other out in terms of inflow of new people?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Okay. I think the way to look at it when we think of the retirement villages and when you look at the senior citizen population; recent statistics show that it's the greatest concentration of senior citizen in any county as anywhere in United States except for Florida. So New Jersey as you know is a relatively high tax state right now. But that has really not affected the growth in the senior citizen population. So based upon that and what we have seen in the past I would not think that that would be a problem.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

But it could be even better of the changes for…

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Oh absolutely. No, it could be. I think the point is that you know the when you look at that population they spent a lot of time down in Florida come back up to New Jersey. But we haven't seen any degradation in that growth rate at all.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you.

Pat Migliaccio

Management

You're welcome, thank you.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Yes. In regards to the SRL project when might we expect the remaining permit from the DEP to be issued?

Mariellen Dugan

Management

Right now based upon the schedule that the DEP has in place we expect to receive those permits in the spring of 2017.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay and just based on the updated CAPEX forecast looks like there's roughly 55 million of SRL spend in '18. So would you assume kind of a second half 2018 type operational date?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Yes, it will happen at some point during 2018. I don't think that's unreasonable what you suggest.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And then last just remind us why it was stripped out of the general rate case settlement and targeted for a separate regulatory filing?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

We actually hadn't begun the construction so in order to get rate treatment for that you need to have started the have the construction in the ground. So that's why it was taken out. But I'm glad you raised that because there was some reporting that it was denied. That statement is false it was taken out because it wasn't ready for rate treatment.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you. At current oil prices $50 oil and around $3 natural gas how does the conversion economics look in your territory?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Even at $50 oil bearer the conversion economics continue to be favorable. The slide that Mariellen had that showed that cost advantage, I think it's still on a per therm basis roughly half or a third of the cost natural gas and never minding the environmental issues and logistic issues. I think what we find is from an environmental perspective there's additional rules around heating oil, tanks that are kept in the ground that cause issues when people try to sell homes in New Jersey. And then even just from a logistical perspective navigating, of course you always run out of heating oil when you need it most. And so for that reason natural gas remains the fuel of choice. That's what we captured 95% of new construction and expect conversions to continue.

Larry Downes

Management

Barry, even if you go back to the days of double digit natural gas prices, we really never saw a drop in the conversion market in fact the only ones that we don't get is our infrastructure is not there yet. Okay. Steve you're up.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Hey, guys. Can you just talk a little bit about the outlook of the CEV segment and the 20% corporate tax scenario vis-à-vis sort of do you see any kind of impact to your pipeline sort of the behavior, your customers on the solar side? And then, on a legislative front, are you hearing any kind of movement about New Jersey potentially rejoining Reggie in the outer years and if there's any opportunities there?

Larry Downes

Management

I didn't hear the first question.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

First question was, is there -- what's the impact of CEV to growth within that segment in the 20% corporate tax scenario?

Larry Downes

Management

Pat will take that.

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Yes, I'll take that. So it is -- what a 20% corporate tax rate or any other corporate tax rate for that matter would do, it would take longer for us to harvest the investment and production tax credits that we are currently generating. Those have a 20 year life though and so certainly not in danger of losing those, clearly there will be a benefit to see the lower tax rate and one of the things that may occur depending upon the nature of the legislation, as I am sure you can appreciate there is a book first tax difference from a depreciation perspective, those deferred tax liabilities are recorded on the balance sheet at the current tax rates. So if you did see a lower tax rate result from that, we remeasure those liabilities and you may see a onetime benefit associated with that re-measurement. And if I can ask you to repeat the second question, I was having trouble hearing you, I am sorry.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Just on the legislative side, are you hearing any sort of movement with majority rejoining Reggie?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

I will give you my personal opinion on that. I would be shocked if that happened anytime between now and 2018. I do think based on what we know right now that that could be a possibility after 2018.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Could you just talk about what's driving the noticeable decline in SREC price since your last update in October?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

I think what we -- I think you are alluding to going to the out years into 2018 and 2019 and that's the point. I am going to ask Steve to comment on that, but that's what we have added to the presentation today is to give you a sense of the demand and the buying patterns through, not only the basic generation service but also the third party suppliers because it is important to understand that so that we can make really a logical explanation as to why SREC prices would come down in 2019. So I am going to ask Steve to comment on that, and then we will come back and talk about how we try to deal with that through our, I will ask Pat to comment on our hedging strategy. Steve?

Steve Westhoven

Management

So just referring back to that original slide where it showed the amount of demand of SRECs really being in your front years, as you move out number of years, the liquidity starts to dry up and you can imagine there is a number of entities that produce SRECs, they want to sell SRECs but the only buyers out there are those that have essentially burned up their commitments with the UBGSS suppliers and also your third party suppliers. So I think a portion of it is lack of liquidity in that market as we move towards it. We will see a, you could see prices move up but I think it takes time for that market to materialize.

Pat Migliaccio

Management

This slide here, Brian, I think it says it all, when you are looking at going out into the later periods of energy 18 and 19 actually I am going to ask my colleague Larry Barth to comment on that as well. I want to stay on this because this is an important point that we have not emphasized in the past and it is important that you understand that. Go ahead, Larry.

Larry Barth

Management

Right, and it is important to note that the buyers of SRECs, they are really just focused on the next couple of months, the current energy year that's where the focus is. When you start to get out two years, three years there is not lot of buyers, there might be some speculators there. The compliance buyers that are really behind the RPS, you are not going to find a lot of them. And so sometimes we even look at some of those prices and we even question how real they are when you get out into those periods, because there is not lot of transactions volume.

Pat Migliaccio

Management

And I think what we are trying to do, Brian, with this slide is answer the questions why are there not lot of buyers out there and to give a better sense of where the demand is coming from when we get out to those years. Go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

To summarize are you saying that, we are already approaching December 2016, are you saying that 2017 isn't liquid SREC market?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Steve, you want to take that?

Steve Westhoven

Management

No, that's not, can you just move ahead one slide.

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Sure.

Steve Westhoven

Management

So if you look at this slide, you will notice that we have almost all SRECs hedged for 2017 and that matches up with the slide prior as well because markets develop for that. If you look at this period 2018 which is almost 22 months away, we have got good chunk of that hedged as well because that market is materialized but looking fiscal year 2019 there is not a lot of hedging takes place because there is not a lot of buying in the marketplace. The only way we would be able to actually, I guess for lack of better words, shove those into the market at the end of the arm some speculators who really don't need and they are just buying it for profit because the market hasn't developed yet.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay, that's helpful. And also want CEV -- we put a number of utilities, recently announced shift in strategies field-own and operate more renewables to grow like this, et cetera. How does that play into your strategy and where -- how does the CEV encounter that over what's the competitive advantage for CEV to sign PPAs with entities?

Larry Downes

Management

Well, there are a couple of questions there. First of all, we think that the solar market in New Jersey still has a lot of opportunity. We think that opportunity is diverse between not only the residential market but also the commercial market. From the tax incentive point of view, we think that the extension that we saw there was obviously helpful. We think that the legislative support is there through the -- not only the RPS, but the responsible legislature to the things that we are learning in the marketplace. On the wind side, I think what you are alluding to, it's important to understand where we are focusing. We are not focusing on the larger projects. We are not focusing on offshore wind. We have found a market that is basically referred to as community wind, the smallest size projects. We have built the operational capability internally. We've developed the relationships that we need with firms like Morris. So, we think in that space that we can compete, but to the larger rate base projects, that's not the market that we're going after.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks. Larry, we have a question from a webcast participant. PennEast was recently pushed back two months in the FERC process, but our CapEx projections haven't changed. How should we be thinking about this going forward?

Larry Downes

Management

Okay. You want to take that?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

The FERC issue, notice that there going to issue our final environmental impact statement approximately 90 days than originally planned. That being said, we are still holding to our original commitment of in-service state sometime in our first fiscal quarter of '19. Many of the partners of the project are calendar years, so you will see the end of calendar year 2018 and there are leases -- I don't know Steve has something else to add on the project.

Steve Westhoven

Management

Yes, basically the project timeline hasn't changed in light of that FERC.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Yes. Thanks. Just keying off that, you've got that portion of your business at 5% to 15% of your forward earnings growth, what portion of that is represented by PennEast? And maybe if we just consider the scenario what PennEast completely went away, how much would that move your forward earnings guidance, if you can comment on that?

Larry Downes

Management

Yes, Midstream is 5% to 10%. PennEast would come in a construction is roughly half of that overall earnings guidance, but in terms of how that would affect either for this kind of long-term growth, we are still committed to 5% to 9%. So, we clearly have the final turnout investment vehicles to support that. Hope that answers your question, Sam.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Looking at '16 actual for the renewables businesses and then comparing with kind of the midpoint of '17 guidance, it looks like it is roughly flattish, and just thinking about there is more spend on solar, SREC prices are up, you are selling more SRECS. Are we missing anything in terms of growth to offset those?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Okay. One is it would be incremental on [indiscernible] associated with now what will be five fully operational wind projects. And so, you see those coming in at a price that spending in the -- ITC spending as you point you is slightly up, the CapEx schedule is based on CapEx, not necessarily placed in service. So, sometimes we have a disconnect between when recognize the ITCs in a particular fiscal year versus when the actual CapEx occurs, and so that maybe masking some of the growth.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

We have one more question. What is the base to your 5% to 9% NFE growth objective?

Larry Downes

Management

Well, fiscal year '16 now is the base year.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

My question in the background is -- should be in the electric grid cyber vulnerability versus a gas distribution system cyber vulnerability. Several weeks ago I heard that New Jersey U.S. attorney addressed this point for about an hour, and the takeaway point was that in order to assess the vulnerability of common appliances, usually those were the manufacturer's default settings are never changed. There ran a test with the common kitchen appliance, I believe, it was a grid connected toaster, but don't pull me into that.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Oh, I won't; don't worry.

Pat Migliaccio

Management

And within 10 hours there were an excess of 300 attempted hacks on that appliance. So, it's real and I'm wondering if the legislature and the regulatory side is assessing the risk properly which want to be a tailwind for distributed generation and the gas distribution system generally.

Larry Downes

Management

If I don't answer the question properly, you can back to me. When you look at New Jersey and you look at the Department of Homeland Security and you look at the coordination between various industry sectors on issues related not only the cyber, but overall security, that is a very robust process, a lot of communication on all of that, okay? I didn't see the comments that you are referring to, I can't -- I really comment on those accepting -- we know what that process is, and quite frankly the experience of super storm Sandy is one that is one that is in the minds of everybody in the States. So even there is a hint of -- for example, a hurricane, the different protocols are implemented. There has been and you have seen this in energy master plans discussion of the importance of distributed generation. As you would not be surprised to learn there was a higher level of awareness and interest in that after super storm Sandy that is obviously weighing, but my expectation personally is that as we move into 2018 and beyond you'll see more discussion specifically on that point. Inside the company, I alluded to this in my comments honestly, when we talk about technology and we talk about changes in technology and how that might create additional opportunities for CEV down the road, that's one of the things that we are alluding to.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay.

Larry Downes

Management

Pat is going to now, as I said, talk to you about the money is going to be spend, where it's coming from. So, please…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

The CapEx for Clean Energy Ventures doesn't tie from the capital plan to the cash flows, timing difference in terms of when the actual project replacement service versus when the CapEx will actually be made? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like you shifted your CapEx primarily due to the delays in PennEast, but it looks like your financing activities have remained constant from your last update and I'm just curious as to why you didn't shift the financing as well?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

You mean the last update on October the 20? It's fairly consistent with October; October the 20th which reflected a change from our earlier capital plan that was released in this fiscal year. So we have that in $72 million of incremental equity as compared to that earlier capital plan. And we had shifted the expectations of debt insurance. So, you are correct, there is no change from our earnings call -- analyst call from the 20th. It should be the same information, because we already factored in those shifts.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay, thank you.

Pat Migliaccio

Management

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Just doing some rough math on your CapEx, former CapEx outlook, it looks like that drives kind of a low double-digit compound growth rate over the next couple of years. How we reconcile -- what are the factors to reconcile that to your 5% to 9% quarter earnings growth guidance?

Pat Migliaccio

Management

I have to think little more carefully about that to give you a robust answer, but you know, keep in mind that a number of -- a significant portion -- even though we're earning and our current return on 40% of the NJNG CapEx, the balance of 60% isn't contributing to earnings. And so, as part of the SAFE II expansion, we'll require to file a base rate case in November of 2019, at that point we would start to see the recovery of some of those expenditures of utility.

Larry Downes

Management

Stan, the question you are asking, the percentage growth rate on the CapEx is not lining up with the earnings.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

That's basically -- I understand a lot of the investments you are making, particularly outside of utility are not rate case, and so you know, there is a lag in thought in that basis, is what I…

Larry Downes

Management

Yes, I think just looking at the math, those numbers, those percentage growth rates may not line up perfectly with each other. It's coming with different bases and all that. And I see that when sometimes rate base growth of X percent is equated to earnings growth of X percent. Those percentages may not necessarily line up with each other. I think just looking at the basic math.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

All right. When we say we are valuing a $100 million pipeline, additional pipeline commercial solar investments on slide 50, would this be incremental to our capital or CapEx projections on slide 60?

Larry Downes

Management

No. The pipeline that we are referring to would be the investments that would support the capital plan here on slide 60.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay, thank you.