Earnings Labs

NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

Q1 2009 Earnings Call· Wed, Sep 24, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Nike's fiscal 2009 first quarter conference call. For those who need to reference today’s press release, you’ll find it at www.nikebiz.com. Leading today’s call is Pamela Catlett, Vice President, Investor Relations. Before I turn the call over to Ms. Catlett, let me remind you that participants of this call will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations and those statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in the reports filed with the SEC, including forms 8-K, 10-K, and 10-Q. Some forward-looking statements concern future orders that are not necessarily indicative of changes in total revenues for subsequent periods due to mix of futures and at-once orders, change rate fluctuations, order cancellations, and discounts, which may vary significantly from quarter to quarter. In addition, it is important to remember a significant portion of Nike Incorporated’s business, including equipment, most of Nike Retail, Nike Golf, Cole Haan, Converse, Hurley, and Umbro are not included in these future numbers. Finally, participants may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. The presentation of comparable GAAP measures and quantitative reconciliations are found at Nike's website. This call might also include discussion of non-public financial and statistical information which is also publicly available at that site, www.nikebiz.com. Now I would like to turn the call over to Pamela Catlett, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Pamela Catlett

Management

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Nike's fiscal 2009 first quarter results. As the operator indicated, participants on today’s call may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. A comparative presentation of reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP reported items can be found in our press release, which as you know was issued about an hour ago and can be found on our website, nikebiz.com. Joining us on today’s call will be Nike Inc. CEO Mark Parker, followed by Charlie Denson, President of the Nike Brand, and finally you will hear from our Chief Financial Officer, Don Blair, who will give you an in-depth review of our financial results. Following their prepared remarks, as usual we will take your questions and, as many of you know, we’d like to allow as many of you to ask questions as possible in the allotted time. Consequently, we’d appreciate you focusing your initial questions to two and in the event you have additional questions, please do re-queue if others do not cover them. With that, thank you very much for your cooperation and it is now my pleasure to introduce Nike Inc. CEO Mark Parker.

Mark G. Parker

Management

Thanks, Pam and welcome, everybody, to the first quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2009. Q1 again demonstrated the strength of our brands and our business. We continued to gain share in key markets and delivered growth in revenue and profitability. That said, we’re not stopping to celebrate and we’re not complacent and we are clear on what’s needed to deliver our goals through fiscal year ’09 and beyond. Let’s go to the numbers first -- Nike Inc. revenue was up 17% to $5.4 billion. That’s 28 consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth. Gross margins were up 240 basis points. Reported global futures are up 10%, which marks 31 consecutive quarters of futures increases. And diluted EPS was down 8% from Q108, influenced by a one-time tax benefit that contributed to $0.20 per diluted share last year. As I’ve said in the past, Nike will continue to invest in growth opportunities that offer the greatest potential for return. These Q1 results are in line with our ability to leverage those investments, our brands, and our resources across the portfolio. We can’t talk about results or opportunity without considering the broader environment. While there is financial uncertainty in some sectors, our results continue to warrant confidence in the power and flexibility of our businesses. We recognize the impact from prices, inflation, and currency fluctuations and we realize that no one is immune, all of which reinforces my commitment to our simply and consistent strategy, manage for continued growth by leveraging the competitive advantages that we control, namely innovation, focus, and consumer relevance. Innovative product is at the core of Nike and practically speaking, it’s where consumers cast their vote on your brand. We landed in Beijing with new footwear and apparel for all 28 Olympic sports. We launched Fly Wire technology in…

Charles D. Denson

Management

Thanks, Mark. Good afternoon, everyone. Well, the Nike brand is off to a solid start for fiscal year ’09. It’s been an amazing summer, our little summer of sport, and we’ve been busy. We started with the NBA Finals, where Paul Pierce led the Boston Celtics to their first title in 22 years. We watched Tiger’s amazing Monday play-off win at the U.S. Open, and then Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres led Spain to their first Euro title in 44 years. Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer put on the greatest show ever at Wimbledon. It put tennis back on the front page and it took Rafael to the number one ranking in the world, only to be followed by Roger’s U.S. Open title, his 13th Grand Slam victory and just one short of tying Pete Sampras’ record. And of course, the biggest show on Earth, the Beijing Olympics. We had a heck of a summer for ourselves as well. On the quarter, the Nike brand generated record revenue of $4.8 billion, up 18%. Every region increased revenue. Global footwear was up 19% and global apparel was up 18%, and all six of our key categories saw revenue increases year over year, so a really solid performance by the Nike brand in the first quarter. I am very confident in our ability to build on the success of Q1 and I will give you three reasons why. First, our category offense -- as Mark said, it’s at the center of our growth strategy for the brand and we are just beginning to see the depth of its true potential. Let’s take running for an example -- 18 months ago, Nike held a number of two or three spots around the world with the core competitive runner. Respectable for most but unacceptable…

Donald W. Blair

Management

Thanks, Charlie. Well, as you’ve heard from my colleagues, we think Q1 is a great start to fiscal 2009. All of our brands posted higher revenues for the quarter and our gross margin grew 240 basis points. While first quarter earnings per share declined as a result of planned SG&A investments and the comparison to last year’s one-time tax benefit, we are right where we expected to be at this point in the year. On balance, we are very happy with the strength of our brands and the performance of our businesses. Over the past several years, you’ve often heard me talk about our commitment to investing for the future while also delivering growth in revenue, earnings, and cash flow. In the dynamic global environment in which we compete, our focus on managing all of the levers of the Nike Inc. P&L and balance sheet has allowed us to achieve that goal and is a strength we believe distinguishes our company. To paraphrase Mark, today’s results reflect our ability to leverage our investments. We’ve invested in our brands to drive top line growth and we posted double-digit revenue growth on a constant currency basis. We’ve invested in emerging markets and this quarter, China grew over 50%, Russia grew over 40%, and Brazil grew 30%. We’ve invested in our multi-brand portfolio and revenues from our continuing other businesses are up almost 20%. We’ve invested in our supply chain to optimize our efficiency and our gross margins grew strongly despite Asian cost pressures. And we’ve invested in Nike brand retail, which grew 14% in constant dollars, highlighted by a 6% increase in comp-store sales for inline stores. In short, revenues up, futures are up, gross margins are strong, and consumers continue to seek the Nike brand experience around the world. In today’s…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Robert Drbul with Lehman Brothers. Robert Drbul - Barclay’s Capital: It’s actually Barclay’s Capital now, but thank you. Congratulations on a very good result, you guys. I guess if I might be able to squeeze in a question-and-a-half, Pam, Don, the first question is just around the international businesses, seemed very strong, can you help us get comfortable with the currency going forward in terms of the strengthening dollar and how things are hedged out for the rest of the year? And then the other half-a-question would be on the oil prices -- with oil prices moderating, what would be the expectation in the gross margin guidance? How have you planned that in the hundred basis points for the year going forward?

Donald W. Blair

Management

Well, first of all to address currency, our outlook at this point for the balance of the year is broadly consistent with where we are right now. That doesn’t mean that there isn't going to be some volatility but as far as this particular year is concerned, the guidance we’ve given you is that we are broadly going to be roughly where we are today. Now, as far as our hedging is concerned, we are largely hedged against our transactional exposure, against the major currencies for fiscal ’09. We do expect that in the long run, we are probably going to see some dollar strengthening and so in the last six to nine months, we’ve been doing some extended hedging out into fiscal ’10 and ’11, so at this point we have some protection for ’10 and ’11. We have a great deal of protection against fiscal ’09, so we are largely hedged for ’09 and we are putting hedges out into ’10 and ’11. And the way that we think about this is hedges are really intended to give us time to adjust our business model, so what we are also doing is with the expectation that we are going to see some dollar strengthening, we are working the other elements of the P&L around product and looking at cost structures and so on. So it’s something that is definitely on our radar screen. Oil, what I would say is at this stage, oil comes into our cost structure over an extended period of time so we had expected this to flow in on a relatively quicker basis than it did. That’s why our Q1 numbers were pretty strong and what we are expecting over the balance of the year as we are still going to see some cost pressure out of Asia but we definitely think it’s coming in a little slower than what we expected. Robert Drbul - Barclay’s Capital: Great. Thank you very much. Good luck.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Ohmes with Merrill Lynch.

Robert Ohmes - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch.

Thank you. My question is on -- is a regional question. I was hoping you could give us an update on your partnered stores in terms of the numbers you have in China, Russia, and Eastern Europe and some rough guidance on how rapidly you expect to grow those regions, the partnered store numbers, over the next year or so. And then related to that, your inventory levels, if you could sort of comment on inventory levels in China and post the Olympics, both yours and competitors and if you see any sort of shorter term inventory issues post-Beijing, and also inventory builds in Russia and Eastern Europe as well. Thank you.

Charles D. Denson

Management

I’ll talk a little bit about the store growth. We will continue to see the store growth expansion on a pretty consistent basis. We don’t see it really slowing down too much. We had a little bit of an acceleration to get some extra stores open just prior to the games in China but it’s a pretty well-oiled machine now and as we’ve talked many times about the success that we’ve had in the core cities and we are now starting to branch out into the tier two, tier three cities and would expect to continue the expansion levels at relatively the same pace that we’ve been on over the last couple of years. So we have the capacity and the capability to do that and we’ll continue to do that with our partners. With regard to Russia and Central Europe, we continue to see a pretty robust environment in both areas where we are seeing some great growth coming out of Russia, Turkey, places like that and we are really following a lot of the same model that we are following in China with partnership, mono-brand type retail stores. So I would say that we would start to see a little bit, although I am going to be very cautious here, but a little bit of an acceleration in places like Russia where we can really start to build some of our capabilities and capacities. It’s in its much earlier stage of growth than China is overall. (Multiple Speakers) I’m sorry, Rob, I forgot. The inventories in China coming out of the Olympics, we feel very good about them. We are in good shape. We are building, continuing to build our factory store outlet program in China, that it will continue to be an assist in our ability to manage our inventories over the long haul and so we feel pretty good about coming out of the Olympics. We knew that there would be a little bit of a build-up going into the games. We certainly did that. As we noted in the prepared remarks, we broke all of our records at retail so it was a huge success for us on the ground in all the stores, whether it was in Beijing or out into the geographies, and so we feel very confident that we are in a good place to continue to grow in China. And I think the futures orders numbers reflect that as well.

Robert Ohmes - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch.

And is there any concern about your competitors and their inventory position sort of pressuring the market near-term?

Charles D. Denson

Management

Well, I’m going to leave that question for them to answer.

Robert Ohmes - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch.

All right, good enough. Hey, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Duffy with Thomas Weisel Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Jim Duffy - Thomas Weisel Partners

Analyst · Thomas Weisel Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks very much. Nice quarter. Something I’m hoping you can address -- there’s been some concern in the investment community that at the end of the Olympics, the party is over in China. You know, your futures suggest this isn't the case but can you maybe speak to it a little bit, how you can sustain the momentum in China?

Charles D. Denson

Management

We’ve talked about this quite a bit going into the games and actually over the last couple of years, our destination was not the Olympic Games. In fact, we actually tried to position that more of a launching pad than a destination. I think, as I like to say, once the circus leaves town we were going to be there for the long haul and we’ve committed to that. We have a completely well-thought-out and positioned branding campaign that continues now well beyond the Olympics, continuing to stay connected with the consumer and one of the things that we are seeing coming out of the Olympics which we did anticipate was just completely accelerated interest around sport that fuels both participation as well as association, and I think those things are starting to pay themselves out. I mean, it’s early days but we feel very confident that the Chinese consumer and the Chinese athlete has a more robust appetite than ever.

Mark G. Parker

Management

I’d add that the retail execution for Nike in China is really some of the best in the world. Personally, incredibly impressed being in Beijing during the games and seeing the execution we had at retail was really phenomenal and I think it’s really setting the pace for Nike retail in other parts of the world. And I couldn’t agree more with Charlie that the appetite for sports in China is tremendous and really feel like the Olympics went a long way to kind of reinforcing our brand strength in that market, so a great accelerator for us and we are very bullish on Nike in China post the Olympics.

Jim Duffy - Thomas Weisel Partners

Analyst · Thomas Weisel Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Great. I look forward to further success.

Pamela Catlett

Management

Thank you, Jim. As the Operator brings in the next person, I want to just clarify one number that was stated -- the retail comp number that Don and Charlie both spoke to for the U.S., the number is 8% growth.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Shanley with Susquehanna Financial Group.

John Shanley - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial Group.

Thank you and good afternoon, everybody. Pam, you just saved me a question so thank you very much for that U.S. comp.

Pamela Catlett

Management

I must have known you were next.

John Shanley - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial Group.

At any rate, Charlie, you mentioned in discussing Europe that some of the countries in the CEMA region did extremely well and some of the countries in Western Europe, surprisingly enough, the U.K., did well in addition. I wonder if you could break out for us, just give us an overall regional comparison in terms of how the first quarter developed for the CEMA region versus the rest of Western Europe in aggregate.

Charles D. Denson

Management

I think essentially Europe continues to be very strong growth and I think Don went through some of the numbers up front as well. I think where we’ve seen the softness is really along the Mediterranean -- Iberia, Southern France, Italy. What’s probably the biggest challenge right now in Spain and Portugal where we’ve seen some significant softness. I think but one of the things, and obviously as we watch this, one of the things that I would just say we’ve kind of done some due diligence here in the sense that the brand is in very good shape, that we are looking at some overall economic conditions that are slowing down, maybe a little bit faster than in some of the other parts of Europe. And so we aren’t as concerned around the brand as we are just keeping an eye on the business, the mechanics, the inventories, and all the things that we do in a slower economic state.

John Shanley - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial Group.

Is there a possibility that eventually Eastern Europe could be as big or maybe even bigger than Western Europe for you guys?

Charles D. Denson

Management

Well, when you look at the overall capacity, I mean, certainly from a population standpoint, I think the buying power still has a ways to go. We’ve got some countries lining up to get into E.U. but then there’s some issues there too as well. But the other thing I guess I would say that makes me feel pretty confident and comfortable is the appetite for sport from a consumer standpoint is every bit as big in Eastern Europe as it is in Western Europe.

John Shanley - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial Group.

Okay, fair enough. My other question is to you, Don -- you mentioned in your prepared remarks that U.S. footwear futures were one of the key drivers for the 9% increase in overall future numbers, and the U.S. futures in total were up 3%. Can we assume from that that the footwear segment of the U.S. futures markets were up substantially more than 3%?

Donald W. Blair

Management

Yes, you can infer that. That number that you quoted, the 9%, that’s actually U.S. footwear growth in the first quarter. That’s revenue growth in the first quarter but your conclusion is correct -- U.S. footwear was up significantly more than 3%.

John Shanley - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial Group.

Would you be so good enough to share with us what --

Donald W. Blair

Management

Not that good. As you know, John, we traditionally don’t get to that level of granularity. You just needed me to say that.

Pamela Catlett

Management

He knows.

John Shanley - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial Group.

He knows and you can’t hurt from trying, though. Thanks a lot, appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Kate McShane with Citigroup.

Kate McShane - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup.

Thank you. Good afternoon. Just following up on John’s question in Europe with some of the macro concerns in Europe, is it possible that we can see similar type of market share gains that we’ve seen in the U.S. from Nike and are you seeing that at all so far?

Donald W. Blair

Management

Well, certainly the opportunity is out there. We feel great about the -- that’s why I talk so much about our brand position in these markets because the brand numbers, the brand recognition studies that we do on an ongoing basis continue to show a very strong brand position so there is some opportunity there. I think it depends on how long and how severe some of these conditions go on and then what goes on in some of the local market places. But we would like to think that we can take advantage of that.

Kate McShane - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup.

Okay, and then just unrelated to that, you mentioned that Umbro broke even during the quarter. Can you update us on where you are with integrating that acquisition and is the guidance for Umbro still expected to be $0.10 dilutive this year?

Mark G. Parker

Management

Yes on the $0.10 dilutive expectation for the year. That’s where we sit right now. Actually, I feel incredibly good about the progress we’ve made over the last few months in really getting Umbro to a better position. Obviously, as we said, we are really working to try to leverage their history and heritage in the world of football, which is deep and rich, as you know. We have, practically speaking, we’re jumping in and helping to shore up the leadership team there and feel really good about where we are there and some critical positions. We’ve done a lot to help them on the operational global sourcing capability side of the business, really helping them accelerate the global distribution, expansion opportunities that they’ve got. Product wise, incredible progress from where they’ve been to where they are now, both on the footwear side of the business, particularly on the performance side and also in the apparel side of the business. So we really feel like we really put a great team together on the Nike side to go in and work with the talent that’s already there at Umbro to try to shore up the areas that are going to help Umbro realize their potential here going through the year and obviously out into the future. So great leverage opportunity. Again, I continue to look at Umbro like I do Converse. Converse has a tremendous amount of opportunity, as Umbro does, so it’s applying the competencies, capabilities that we have to help them leverage that and we’ve made great progress over these last 90 days or so.

Kate McShane - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup.

That’s great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Sam Poser with Sterne Agee. Sam Poser - Sterne, Agee & Leach: Good afternoon, everybody. I just have a follow-up on the average selling prices in the U.S., if you could give us some idea of what kind of growth that you saw and a little bit of color as well on your channels of distribution within the U.S. and where your major strengths were.

Charles D. Denson

Management

Our average selling price, we’re not going to give out specific numbers but the good news is that they are up and we feel really good about some of the new premium performance product that has gone into the marketplace. We’ve referenced a product like the Hyper Dunk and the Zoom Victory, which are specifically products that were featured in the Olympic Campaign. But we’ve also seen some great response to some of the more premium apparel products, the iconic products that we put into the marketplace, which is a great indicator for us and so I think those are the types of things that we use as indicators in regard to what the consumer’s appetite is for new innovation and continues to give us a lot of confidence going forward because our innovation agenda is still pretty well -- the pipelines are still pretty full with things coming down the road. There was a second question too?

Pamela Catlett

Management

Retail, how the --

Charles D. Denson

Management

Oh, the channel -- sure. I think, well, our sporting goods channels continue to do extremely well and we’ve seen some really nice progress coming out of both the athletic specialty channel, as well as some of our own retail. So I think you guys obviously follow the U.S. retail numbers as well as anybody and you’ve seen some of the progress that they’ve made and we are very excited about some of the new environments that we are working on, both that you’ve seen that we mentioned in the Nike Town stores, as well as some of the things that were going on with our partners, with a category focus. So you know, no big news flash coming out of the commentary. I think it’s pretty consistent with what you guys have seen across the landscape over the quarter. Sam Poser - Sterne, Agee & Leach: Could I just have a quick follow-up on -- as far as the ASPs and how they may have affected the futures numbers, maybe as a percent or was there any impact there?

Donald W. Blair

Management

I actually don’t have that one close to hand but my belief is it’s pretty consistent with the quarter. Sam Poser - Sterne, Agee & Leach: Okay. Thank you very much.

Pamela Catlett

Management

Thank you, Sam. Operator, unless -- do we have anymore in the queue?

Operator

Operator

No, we do not.

Pamela Catlett

Management

Thank you, everyone, for joining us and we look forward to speaking again soon.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.