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NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Wed, Jun 24, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Nike’s fiscal 2009 fourth quarter conference call. For those who need to reference today’s press release, you will find it at www.nikebiz.com. Leading today’s call is Pamela Catlett, Vice President, Investor Relations. Before I turn the call over to Ms. Catlett, let me remind you that participants of this call will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations and those statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in the reports filed with the SEC, including forms 8-K, 10-K, and 10-Q. Some forward-looking statements concern future orders that are not necessarily indicative of changes in total revenues for subsequent periods due to mix of futures and at-once orders. Exchange rate fluctuations, order cancellations, and discounts which may vary significantly from quarter to quarter. In addition, it is important to remember a significant portion of Nike Inc.’s business, including equipment, most of Nike retail, Nike Golf, Cole Haan, Converse, Hurley, and Umbro are not included in these futures numbers. Finally, participants may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. The presentation of comparable GAAP measures and quantitative reconciliations are found at Nike's website. This call might also include discussion of non-public financial and statistical information, which is also publicly available on that site, www.nikebiz.com. Now I would like to turn the call over to Pamela Catlett, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Pamela Catlett

Management

Thank you and thank you, everyone, for joining us today to discuss Nike's fiscal 2009 fourth quarter and year-end results. As the Operator indicated, participants on today’s call may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. You will find the appropriate reconciliations in our press release which was issued about an hour ago and on our website, nikebiz.com. Joining us on today’s call will be Nike Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer, Mark Parker, followed by Charlie Denson, President of the Nike Brand; and finally you will hear from our Chief Financial Officer, Don Blair, who will give you an in-depth review of our financial results. Following their prepared remarks, we will take your questions and I will now turn the call over to Nike Inc. President and CEO, Mark Parker.

Mark Parker

Management

Thanks, Pam and good afternoon, everybody. Actually, before I get going, I just want to acknowledge that this is Pam Catlett’s 40th earnings call with Nike and so I want to congratulate Pam on that milestone and all the great work that she’s done for Nike over the years, so cheers to Pam. Okay, so back to the call here, it’s no surprise that fiscal year ’09 was a tough one for the global economy. Looking back at the past 12 months, one of the most important challenges we’ve faced was defining what success means for both the near and long-term. For many companies, success was defined as simply surviving. As we’ve said in the past, we intend to do more than just survive. We plan to emerge from this downturn competitively stronger. To do that, we focus on the things that keep us healthy and opportunistic. Specifically, we build even stronger relationships with our consumers, we maintain the integrity of our brands, we strengthen our operational capability, and we deliver appropriate financial performance while positioning Nike for sustainable, profitable growth over the long-term. These are the commitments that allowed us to deliver a remarkable performance given the current environment. Q4 revenues were steady on a constant dollar basis and we significantly outperformed our key competitors and gained share in most major markets. In fiscal ’09, revenues were $19.2 billion, and we delivered comparable EPS growth of 10% thanks to industry-leading product, strong cost management, and benefits from our tax planning initiatives. I am particularly pleased by our strong working capital management, which was a key driver in delivering over $1.2 billion of free cash flow from operations, and we did this all while consumers and many companies adopted a conservative wait-and-see attitude. But Nike has never been a wait-and-see…

Charlie Denson

Management

Thanks, Mark. Good afternoon, everyone. Okay, for Q4 and for the year, the Nike brand delivered a solid performance in some pretty choppy waters. Here’s how that translates into the numbers. On the year, the Nike brand generated record revenue, up 4% to nearly $17 billion with constant dollar revenue growth in every region except EMEA, which was flat. Footwear generated revenue of $10 billion and apparel came in at $5 billion, and we finished the year with inventory in pretty good shape, down 3% year-on-year. So a good, solid performance, thanks in part to the fact that we’re having one of the greatest years in sports that we’ve seen in some time. You know, if you’ll remember back this time last year, Tiger Woods won the 18-hole playoff at the U.S. open on a torn ACL and that was just the beginning. We had the Beijing Olympics. We dominated the college sports landscape here in the U.S. Cristiano Ronaldo won FIFA Player of the Year. LeBron won the MVP and Roger Federer won his 14th major and maybe his 15th coming up at Wimbledon. That would break Pete Sampras’ record. Kobe won his fourth ring and on Monday, two great performances by Lucas Glover and David Duvall at the U.S. open. It’s been a phenomenal run that shows no sign of letting up, and with sports viewership at an all-time high, it’s all good for Nike. What’s not so good for Nike, or anybody else, for that matter, is the current economy. One of the most important things we need to do in times like these is stay healthy and be ready. We have to be organized to be opportunistic, and we are. We are closer to the market at every turn -- design, marketing, and operations. As tough…

Don Blair

Management

Thanks, Charlie. We’re all very familiar with the unprecedented challenges faced by our industry and all others in the global economy. Today’s results illustrate both our commitment and our ability to proactively manage our business and our financial performance to create long-term shareholder value, even under extraordinarily difficult conditions. In fiscal 2009, we made adjustments to our business to minimize brand risk, maximize liquidity, and offset a significant portion of the impact of the economy on our P&L. In addition, we made some difficult decisions, including restructuring our organization and our supplier base to improve our economics and position ourselves for the future. As a result, we believe our operational capabilities and our balance sheet are the strongest in the industry and the strongest they’ve ever been. With that context, let’s take a look at our fourth quarter and fiscal ’09 results. Excluding FX, fourth quarter revenues were in line with last year. On a reported basis, revenues declined 7% to $4.7 billion. As you’ll recall, we reported double-digit revenue growth in last year’s fourth quarter as our business surged in advance of the European championships and the Olympics. For the year, revenues this year grew 4% on a currency-neutral basis and grew 3% to $19.2 billion as reported. Excluding currency changes, Nike Brand revenues also grew 4% while revenues for our other businesses, including Cole Haan, Converse, Hurley, Nike Golf and Umbro grew 1%. Futures orders for Nike Brand footwear and apparel scheduled for delivery from June through November 2009 declined 5% on a currency neutral basis. Futures were lower in comparison to strong orders last year but also reflect the impact of a significantly more difficult consumer environment. On a real dollar basis, futures declined 12%. Diluted earnings per share for the quarter declined 29% to $0.70, including…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from the line of Omar Saad with Credit Suisse Group.

Omar Saad - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Thanks. Good evening. I wanted to follow-up on the sourcing, the restructuring on your sourcing business and the consolidation there with your partners. Can you go into a little bit more detail and give us some color around where you are starting from, where you are going to? Is it just on the footwear side or is it across all the categories? How many partners do you have and how many can you get it down to and is it -- is there a real scale opportunity that some of these operators can drive higher volumes through their existing capacity?

Mark Parker

Management

Well, we’ve been pursuing consolidation over a period of time in both footwear and apparel and on the footwear side, we have significantly fewer factories and partners -- at this point, probably in the high 30s and that will be moving down more towards 30, so that consolidation really is around our strongest and most innovative, most efficient partners and we think that both on the footwear and apparel side, the impact of this is that we not only maintain capacity and give ourselves the opportunity for future expansion as needed but also are able to leverage both economies of scale as well as technological improvements, things like lean manufacturing, for example. On the apparel side, we have quite a few more factories in the low hundreds for the main factory partners and there’s going to be obviously some more significant changes in that structure but the net of both of these is that we really are consolidating with our strongest and most innovative partners.

Omar Saad - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Okay, and then a follow-up question on profitability, if it’s okay -- I noticed in the quarter great profitability. Regionally, the EMEA, Asia-Pacific, Americas, kind of the pretax margin, segment margins in those businesses is way up, whereas the U.S. lagged a little bit there kind of year over year. What’s the dynamic going on there and how should we think about that going forward as you kind of think about allocating your resources in investments and spending around the different regions?

Charlie Denson

Management

Well, I think when you think about it overall, the U.S. has always been a little bit more of a -- I’ll use the term tightly wound marketplace, so we have a little bit more price elasticity in some of the international markets and I think you saw some of that coming through on a management basis, as you saw the results for Q4. I think as we go forward, we still believe that the U.S. offers us a market that we can grow in. We are going to continue to focus on the U.S. as a growth market, as well as the international markets and the emerging markets specifically in the short-term, as you think about over the next 12 to 18 months, you know, China and some of the emerging markets. South America continues to perform well, where we are still building out some of our business infrastructure. So I think that’s where you are -- that explains some of that. Western Europe will continue to be one of the most challenging markets, both economically and from a consumer standpoint. You are seeing some dramatically high unemployment numbers coming out of Western Europe and I think that will always be an indicator for us as we move into this next 12 to 18-month period.

Mark Parker

Management

One other thing to bear in mind, Omar, the fourth quarter also reflected a fairly significant year-on-year change in demand creation spend related to the European Championships in the Olympics, and that was much more of a spike in the international markets in 2008, so Charlie’s points around the business, right on. The other impact on the fourth quarter really is kind of a timing issue in the spending of demand creation.

Omar Saad - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Kate McShane with Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

Kate McShane - Citigroup

Analyst

Good afternoon. With inventories down 3% this quarter, and I know you spent some time explaining how you are able to move some of that inventory, should we expect to see further inventory declines as we go into fiscal ’10?

Mark Parker

Management

Well, we are always working to tighten the supply chain and this is something that is a long-term initiatives that has been going on for about a decade, as we’ve been really overhauling the supply chain systems. So this is really an approach that we are taking that’s very much in keeping with the way we’ve always managed the business. We feel really good about where inventory levels are around the world at this point. I think there’s still some opportunities for efficiency but we are going to keep those inventories lean based upon market conditions.

Charlie Denson

Management

I’d just add one other point to that one, in the sense that our priority is to maintain a healthy brand and healthy marketplace, and I think we’ve been pretty consistent over the years in managing our ability to do that. And I think it’s one of our core competencies both as a brand and as a company and I feel really good about where we are at right now and we are in great shape to deal with whatever comes at us in the future. So a healthy brand and a healthy marketplace is a big growth opportunity for us as we watch the competitive landscape as well.

Kate McShane - Citigroup

Analyst

If I could just follow-on to that very quickly in regard to China, I think you did mention in your last call that was one of the areas where you had seen more of a significant inventory build just post the Olympics. Was that inventory work-through more through factory outlets that have been opening in China or more through markdowns?

Mark Parker

Management

Actually, it was work-through with our retail partners in China, some through a factory outlet type format. We are increasing our own format, or our own factory store format in China as we go forward. As you think about the growth of the China business, I think it’s more than doubled over the last two years and our ability to continue to set that market up to be healthy and continue to achieve a healthy growth rate, the factory outlet store program will become a bigger part of that over the next several quarters.

Kate McShane - Citigroup

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Bob Drbul with Barclay’s Capital. Bob Drbul - Barclay’s Capital: Good afternoon. Mark, I just have a question for you and then a second follow-up, which is I guess on the swoosh-based recovery that you are talking about, where do you think we are near the bottom of the swoosh from that perspective?

Mark Parker

Management

Well, I think we are certainly on that longer road up -- you know, that longer road of recovery that -- so I’d say -- I’m not going to pinpoint exactly where on that spectrum we are but I think we’ve sort of turned the corner in the sense that we are moving slowly back to where I think we need to be. But it’s going to take a while. I mean, let’s not -- let’s be real. I think for the economy to really swing around and even approach levels pre sort of recession, it’s going to take a while. I’m not going to pinpoint or attempt to pinpoint exactly when and where, but I think we are on the upswing, but it’s going to take a while. Bob Drbul - Barclay’s Capital: And I guess just sort of following up on that, when you look at the futures orders that you reported today, are there any sequential trends to call out overall or by regions?

Mark Parker

Management

Well, we have some within the first half and certainly in the second half, we have some upside opportunities that we’ll be aggressively going after. You know, I said in my comments that we want to achieve a balance of being prudent and then opportunistic at the same time, so we’ll work that balance as best we can but yeah, we have the ability now to be a lot more surgical about where we go after growth, you know, as I said by country, by category, by product type, by price point, by channel and we are using that competency, which I think has never been higher than it is today at Nike, to our full advantage. So we are as aggressive as I think we need to be or should be in this environment. We see some good upside opportunities at certain countries and certain categories that really stand out and again, we’re going to be working those as best we can but being responsible and obviously appreciative of where the economic environment is.

Charlie Denson

Management

And Bob, just to address the math, as you know the futures that we released today basically cover the first two quarters of the fiscal year and they definitely are stronger in the back half of that window than in the front half and certainly in the second half of our fiscal year, which would be the first half of calendar 2010, our comparisons are going to get somewhat easier. So that is obviously one of the elements of the math that people should bear in mind. Bob Drbul - Barclay’s Capital: Great. Thank you.

Mark Parker

Management

I will add too that I think we are -- you know, we are bullish about our ability to continue to gain share even as we head through this first half of this next year and then certainly through a recovery, we are better positioned we think than anybody in this industry and very bullish on the product we have in the pipeline and the ability to kind of take advantage of that in terms of growing our share position around the world. Bob Drbul - Barclay’s Capital: Thank you. Good luck.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Robert Ulm with Banc of America Merrill Lynch.

Robert Ulm - Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Thanks. Good evening, everybody. A couple of quick follow-ups -- the first was just on Bob’s question on futures. Can you tell us what the ASP trends in U.S. footwear look like in the futures orders? And then the other question I had I think for you, Don, is on the gross margin expectation of being down around 100 basis points. How much of that -- is that all FX or can you walk through how much of that is related to expected -- you know, I don’t know if it would be called promotional activity or further inventory clearance or input costs or -- you know, just a sense of how we should think about that on the gross margin side? Thanks.

Don Blair

Management

Sure. The ASPs in the futures for U.S. footwear are still going up and with respect to the gross margin, the majority of that year-on-year decline is FX driven. We do expect to see some benefit from lower oil prices and a little bit of easing with some of the input costs, as well as some of our product cost initiatives. There are going to be we think some headwinds but not to the degree that we saw in fiscal ’09, but the major drive of the year-on-year erosion is FX.

Robert Ulm - Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Great.

Mark Parker

Management

Yeah, just to add to that, you know, there’s a big question around consumer appetite for premium product and I think if you look at our performance over the last year and even through our futures period going into fiscal ’10, we don’t see that appetite diminishing. If anything, we have seen steady increases on the premium side, particularly over the $120 price point. So we -- again, we feel bullish about the consumer appetite for the product at the higher end of the spectrum that is ripe and relevant.

Robert Ulm - Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

And Mark, are you seeing -- if you look at every channel of distribution in the U.S., are you seeing say the highest price points of your product say within the moderate channel outperforming the lower priced?

Charlie Denson

Management

I’ll jump in on that -- I would say no in regard to where we are seeing the channel performance. To Mark’s point, where we’ve got premium product in the marketplace, which is obviously in the specialty and sporting goods channels, it continues to perform extremely well and we are seeing a very responsive marketplace with regards to the futures orders in that area as well.

Robert Ulm - Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

That’s very helpful.

Charlie Denson

Management

If the question is are we seeing more of the moderate price point channels driving most of the numbers, not true.

Robert Ulm - Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

If you’ve just looked at the moderate channel though, would the higher price points that you guys offer in that channel be outperforming the mid-price within the moderate channel?

Charlie Denson

Management

I don’t have that granularity in front of me, so --

Pamela Catlett

Management

That’s a little deep.

Charlie Denson

Management

That’s a follow-up question potentially for Ms. Catlett.

Robert Ulm - Banc of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

All right. Thanks a lot, Charlie.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Christopher Svezia with Susquehanna Financial Group.

Christopher Svezia - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks. I guess just on the apparel business in the U.S., I was just wondering, maybe you could just talk about being down 15% and you mentioned obviously making your strategic decision to pull out of some of the value channel, I’m just wondering how we should be looking at that business as we move into 2010. You’ve made some nice advancements on the technical side. You’re working on the sportswear side of the business. I’m just wondering if you have some color about what’s working, what’s now and how we should look at this business as we move forward.

Mark Parker

Management

Yeah, I mean, actually you’ve mentioned exactly the way you should be looking at it, in the sense that we have talked about this in prior calls about repositioning the brand and the product line from a distribution standpoint. I think you are seeing some of the results of that in the numbers, coupled with the fact that apparel was a harder hit sector than the footwear business was, and we’ve seen that not only across our business but I think across that entire sector, you’re seeing the apparel folks probably dealing with a little bit bigger impact under these current economic conditions. But I think the other thing that you need to watch as far as the future and what we are doing is that premium positioned product, how well it’s performing and I think we’ll continue to talk about that in the upcoming calls in the upcoming quarters. But just to be clear, we are staying focused on performance product. We believe that is the sharp point and we are very pleased and I am very excited and I am really looking forward to this fall and into holiday as we really focus on performance apparel here in the U.S. We’ve got some great things in the works. Pro Combat is something we’ve talked about and alluded to a little bit and we are going to bring that to the forefront. And then you are going to see us take and leverage the lifestyle, the key lifestyle silhouettes against all of the categories in a much more efficient and focused way, as we go into spring and all the way into World Cup. So those are the things that I would ask you to watch for and those are the things we’ll be talking about in the coming months.

Christopher Svezia - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst

Okay, thanks, Charlie, appreciate that. And just on -- when Don, when you talk about the demand creation spending being flat this year and then you talk about the corporate overhead piece being down I think low to mid-single-digits for the year, I assume that’s on a reported basis, not in constant currency? And I guess the second piece to this, how much when you look at the operating overhead piece in terms of the reduction is related at all to the reduction in the overall staffing, being down 5% in terms of the overall employment at Nike? How much of that is just related to some of the near-term cost efficiencies in the business and how much of that is just the variability of the business?

Don Blair

Management

Okay. First of all, what I am talking about is dollar equivalent and obviously that depends on the reported currencies being broadly consistent. I mean, most of the currency reductions happened sort of beginning of ’09, so we are talking about dollars and I was referring to real dollars but that’s assuming a relatively stable currency environment, so that’s your first question. With respect to the drivers, certainly the restructuring of the organization was a key driver. There’s a number of cost areas that we are working in, including procurement and just making sure that we are very focused on everything we spend, so this is not just about the organization but we do believe that a lot of this is structural, that we were very focused on the long-term here and setting ourselves up for the future, not short-term economies that go away later.

Christopher Svezia - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst

Okay. All right, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Sam Poser with Sterne, Agee. Sam Poser - Sterne, Agee & Leach: Good afternoon. I just wanted to know, the -- how do you see the retail inventory levels other than China right now? How do they look to you?

Charlie Denson

Management

We’re pretty comfortable right now. I think one of the things that we’ve alluded to in the past has been a build-up in apparel and the apparel numbers have come down quite a bit over the last couple of months and so I think from an overall standpoint, Western Europe, United States being the two biggest ones, we feel very good about where we are at. You know, I said that in my prepared comments as well. You know, our ability to manage our brand in the marketplace is one of our core competencies and I think in times like this, we have gone to it and relied heavily on it and I feel really good about our inventory levels out at retail pretty much around the world. Sam Poser - Sterne, Agee & Leach: Two real quick questions -- when do you think the -- as you see it right now, when do you see the FX headwind unwinding? And just to confirm, I think the question was just asked, the SG&A spend in 2010, you’re saying is going to be flat in dollars based on the currency sort of staying where it is?

Charlie Denson

Management

Yes, so the currency guard rails we give people, and this is approximate, is that the lag is anywhere from nine to 18 months -- 12 months is a reasonable approximation for when you would expect to see spot rates start to flow through the P&L, so if you look at what happened with say the Euro as one of the benchmark currencies, I think we were above $1.50 in our first quarter of fiscal ’09 and we finished the year at about $1.30. You know, we are going to expect to see that reflection over a nine to 18 month period and 12 months is a reasonable approximation. Sam Poser - Sterne, Agee & Leach: Thank you very much.

Pamela Catlett

Management

Operator, we’ll have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our last question is from Michelle Tan with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.

Michelle Tan - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I just had two quick follow-ups -- first, you know, on the apparel business, can you give us any sense of how much of the decline that you are seeing right now relates to the repositioning out of some of the value distribution and when you anniversary that change and maybe see a little less pressure on the category?

Mark Parker

Management

Michelle, I think Don referenced that earlier in the sense that we think about 50% of the decline right now is attributed to some of the reprofiling and repositioning of year-on-year business. We would continue to expect to see some of that certainly through the next six months and then I think as we get into spring, we’ll start to anniversary some of that repositioning. But what consequence the economic conditions have is -- we’re not calling that shot right now.

Michelle Tan - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Understood. And then in terms of the current, the inventory number, just any kind of sense of the impact of currency on the inventory on the balance sheet?

Mark Parker

Management

On a constant currency basis, inventory was up about 2% in constant dollars but one of the things we’ve learned is with the currency volatility, that’s not a great barometer. Probably a better barometer is units of inventory and for the Nike brand, units were down 10% at the balance sheet date.

Michelle Tan - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

That’s very helpful. Okay, thanks and good luck.

Pamela Catlett

Management

Thank you, everyone and thanks for your time. We’ll speak with you soon.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the teleconference. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for your participation.