Adam Pollitzer
Analyst · Mark Hughes with SunTrust
Yes. So I'll answer both of those in turn, Mark. So in terms of how low it will go, we're not going to be providing guidance, specific guidance. We do expect that our 12-month persistency will dip below the 77% that we reported in Q4 but then rebound in the second half of the year. If we tied it with that, we do certainly expect to continue delivering industry-leading growth in our insurance-in-force, given our expectations for future NIW potential. In terms of the dynamic that drives this, it's really related to the persistency calculation itself. So our reported 12-month persistency, looks at the total primary, if, that was on our books 12 months ago. So in this instance, at December 31, 2018, and look at how much of that insurance-in-force remains in the portfolio 12 months later. In this instance, at December 31, 2019. And so the set we reported 77% persistency. That persistency ratio or percentage doesn't consider any of the business that we wrote in 2019 since that business wasn't in the portfolio 12 months ago. And so our persistency is heavily influenced by a few things, right? It's heavily influenced by the profile of the business that we wrote, right? What's the underlying note rate but also when we wrote it. And so what we expect to see in 2020 is that as more and more of the high-quality, but we expect to be highly persistent business that we wrote in 2019, comes into that calculation, right? So as of 3/31/20, our reported 12-month persistency will now include the first quarter 2019 production. Roll that forward to the second quarter, will begin to include the second quarter '19 production. And if you look at how note rates have developed through 2019, we expect the business that we originated, really beginning in the second and then on in the third and fourth quarters, because of the underlying node rates to be incredibly persistent. As that starts to come into the calculation, we'll expect to see our persistency ratio rise.