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Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 13, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for joining us for Navios Maritime Partners Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. With us today from the Company are Chairwoman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou; Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Efstratios Desypris; Chief Financial Officer, Ms. Erifili Tsironi; and Vice Chairman, Mr. Ted Petrone. As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast. To access the webcast, please go to the Investors section of Navios Partners' website at www.navios-mlp.com. You'll see the webcast link in the middle of the page, and a copy of the presentation referenced in today's earnings conference call will also be found there. Now, I will review the Safe Harbor statement. This conference call could contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 about Navios Partners. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. Such forward-looking statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of Navios Partners management and are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Such risks are more fully discussed in Navios Partners filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information set forth herein should be understood in light of such risks. Navios Partners does not assume any obligation to update the information contained in this conference call. The agenda for today's call is as follows: first, Ms. Frangou will offer opening remarks. Next, Mr. Desypris will give an overview of Navios Partners segment data. Next, Ms. Tsironi will give an overview of Navios Partners financial results; then Mr. Petrone will provide an industry overview; and lastly, we’ll open the call to take questions. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Navios Partners Chairwoman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou. Angeliki?

Angeliki Frangou

Management

Good morning all and thank you for joining us on today's call. I am pleased with the results of the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. For the quarter, we reported revenue of $327.3 million and net income of $132.4 million. For the full year, we reported revenue of $1.3 billion and net income of $433.6 million. Net earnings per common unit was $4.30 for the quarter and $14.08 for the full year. The general background in which we operate is important. In 2023, the world continues to experience disruption in normal trade routes. Regional conflict initially in Ukraine and Russia and later in the Middle East introduced uncertainty and inefficiency in transportation. Most recently, we have seen traffic in the Suez Canal reduced by over 50%. This disruption is compounded by a drought limiting traffic in the Panama Canal. Consequently, a typically seasonally slow Q1 has been surprisingly strong in 2024. In addition, the U.S. and European economies seem to have managed inflationary pressures and are generally healthy. While there are pockets of weakness, the economies of most of the top 10 economies are growing. Further, China seems to be leveraging its export strength to counter the economic issues it is facing domestically. Should the current environment remain, we would expect trade to remain strong for 2024. However, I do note that this robust environment can change quickly should conflict-driven efficiencies clear and all economies suffer from a further wave of inflation. As usual, we continue to execute on a strategic initiative by focusing on things that we can control, such as reducing leverage, modernizing our energy efficiency, and taking long-term cover where available. Please turn to slide seven. Navios Partners is a leading publicly listed shipping company diversified in 15 asset classes in three sectors. We have…

Efstratios Desypris

Management

Thank you, Angeliki. Good morning all. Please turn to slide nine, which details our operating free cash flow potential for 2024. We fixed 63% of available days at an average rate of $24,910 net per day. This created an estimated operating break-even of $491 per day for the remaining 20,497 days that are open or indexed. On the right side of the slide, we provide our 56,058 available days by vessel type so that you can perform your own sensitivity analysis. However, whatever number used, we should develop substantial cash flow in 2024. Please turn to slide 10. We are always renewing the fleet so that we maintain a young profile. It is part of our strategy to reduce our carbon footprint by modernizing our fleet, benefiting from new technologies and eco-vessels with greener characteristics. During Q4 of 2023 and Q1, 2024, we got delivery of two 5,300 TEU container ships, both chartered out for an average of 5.2 years at an average net daily rate of $37,050 per day, generating revenue of approximately $140 million. Following these deliveries, we have $1.6 billion remaining investment in 26 new building vessels delivering to our fleet through 2027. In container ships, we have 10 vessels to be delivered with a total acquisition price of approximately $736 million. We have mitigated this risk with long-term credit worth charters, generating about $0.9 billion in revenue over a 6.6 year average charter duration. In the tanker space, we acquired 16 vessels for a total price of approximately $885 million. We started out ten of these vessels for an average period of five years, generating revenues of about $0.5 million. The Dry Bulk newbuilding program of eight vessels was completed in June 2023 with a delivery of the last Capesize vessel. We have also been opportunistically selling older vessels 2023 and year-to-date in 2024 we have sold 17 vessels with an average age of 15.4 years for $327.6 million. We sold eight tanker vessels for about $215 million and 9 dry bulk vessels for about $114.5 million. Moving to slide eleven, we continue to secure long-term employment for our fleet. In Q4 2023 and year-to-date 2024, we have created about 140 million additional contract revenue. Approximately $125 million comes from our tanker fleet and about $15 million comes from one dry bulk vessel. Our total contract revenue amounts to $3.3 billion, $1.1 billion relates to our tanker fleet, $0.4 billion relates to our dry bulk fleet and $1.8 billion relates to our container ships. [Indiscernible] are extended through 2037 with a diverse group of quality counterparties. About 50% of our contracted revenue is expected to be earned in the next two years. I now pass the call to Eri Tsironi, our CFO, which will take you through the financial highlights. Eri?

Eri Tsironi

Management

Thank you Efstratios and good morning all. I will briefly review our unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and the year ended December 31, 2023. The financial information is included in the press release and is summarized in a slide presentation available on the company's website. Moving to the earnings highlights on slide 12, total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 decreased to $327 million compared to $371 million for the same period in 2022 on the back of 6% less available days and 5% lower combined time charter equivalent rate. Revenue in Q4 2023 compared to Q3 2023 increased by $4.1 million on the back of higher combined time charter equivalent rate despite lower available days. Time Charter revenue for the three month period is understated by $10.5 million because U.S. GAAP rules require the recognition of revenue for our charters with deescalating rates on a straight line basis. In terms of sector performance, TCE rates for the fourth quarter of 2023 for our dry bulk fleet increased by 6.5% to 16,902 per day compared to the same period in 2022. In contracts, our container and tank at PCE rates were approximately 11% lower compared to the same period last year at 30,356 and 27,562 per day, respectively. EBITDA, net income, and EPU were adjusted as explained in the slide footnote. Excluding these amounts, adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 increased to $227 million 13% higher compared to the same period last year and almost 31% higher compared to Q3 2023. Adjusted net income for Q4 2023 increased to $133 million 18% higher compared to Q4 2022 and 61% higher compared to Q3 2023. Total revenue for 2023 increased by 8% to $1.3 billion compared to $1.2 billion for the same period in 2022. Time charter revenue for…

Ted Petrone

Management

Thank you, Eri. Please turn to slide 17 for a view of current trade disruptions. The Panama and Suez Canals, two strategic maritime transit points, continue to operate at restricted transit levels. With regard to the Suez Canal, the Red Sea disruptions have caused a rerouting of ships via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing costs and ton miles. Since the end of November, transits have reduced by 75% for containers, 51% for product tankers, 16% for crew tankers, and 34% for drive bulk vessels. Panama Canal daily transit restrictions stand at 24 vessels, 33% below normal. Please turn to slide 19 for a view of the tanker industry. World GDP grew at 3.1% in 2023 and is expected to grow by 3.1% again in 2024 based on the IMF's January forecast. There's 85% correlation of world oil demand to global GDP growth. In spite of economic uncertainties and the crisis in the Ukraine and Red Sea, the IEA projects a 1.2 million barrels per day increase in world oil demand for 2024 to 103 million barrels per day. Chinese crude imports continue to rise, averaging 11.3 million barrels per day in 2023, an 11% increase over 2022. After a seasonally low Q3, all sector rates increased in Q4 on the back of higher global demand and increasing refinery throughput led by China and India. Additionally, seaborne crude and clean trading patterns, which were initially diverted to longer haul routes due to Russian sanctions, have once again been rerouted by the above-mentioned Red Sea disruptions. These even longer haul routes continue to increase ton miles, putting pressure on both costs and rates. Recent rates remain firm, having risen on the back of rising demand. The Saudi and Russian export cuts have been somewhat mitigated by increased Atlantic exports. Turning to…

Angeliki Frangou

Management

Thank you, Dave. This completes our formal presentation and we open the call to questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Omar Nokta with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Thank you. Hey, guys. Good morning. Good afternoon. Thanks for the update. Very good detail, I think, just on the company and the market overall. And just had a couple of follow-ups and maybe just kind of big picture. I wanted to ask about strategy. You show on Slide eight the priorities in 2023, which were deleveraging and fleet renewal, building the backlog and maintaining profitability. You generally, I would say, executed on that. How do you see strategy in 2024? Does that change in any way relative to 2023 especially in the context of what's going on disruption-wise in the Black Sea and the Red Sea? Thank you.

Angeliki Frangou

Management

Good morning, Omar. I mean, basically, we have actually put a page here, I mean, on the strategy, page eight. And this is -- our target is one. As we have very well-articulated is to have a 20%, 25% net LTV. And we gave a forecast. We gave -- we have about 176 vessels, and we have done in 2023, even though we sold 17 vessels, keeping the average age the same, increasing our revenue to about $1.3 billion, creating an adjusted EBITDA of almost $750 million and net cash of $300 million, almost $300 million. Contracted revenue is a very important element in our strategy that gives us ability to navigate. So we have about $3.3 billion, and we've managed to bring net LTV to 38%. As we've seen the disruptions which have contributed to the better market and also, we've seen economies that are the top 10 economies are doing pretty well even with some weaknesses. We believe that as we are continuing and we think the 2024 developing, we will have a much better understanding how the market will perform, and that will give us a lot of options.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Thanks Angeliki and I guess as you mentioned in the opening remarks that you'll focus on what you can control, given all the uncertainty. Obviously, the 38% LTV is obviously much stronger than where it was. Part of that is obviously incoming cash. You've also had asset value appreciation. You just said you've sold 17 ships recently. You have been taking delivery of several of the contracted newbuildings, yet more newbuildings to come. Just we've seen very firm prices in the sale and purchase market. We -- at least what it looks like, particularly in dry bulk and tankers, how do you see Navios kind of reacting in this context of rising value? The disruptions have led to higher incoming cash flow. It's also now led perhaps to rising values. Are you expecting to sell more ships into strength and take advantage of these opportunities and perhaps help you delever sooner? And if that's the case, any specific segments that you see an opportunity to sell into strength?

Angeliki Frangou

Management

We are very disciplined in that and you have seen us over the last couple of years. We always compare residual value, sale value and charter rate. When we see, I mean, we just sold a 15-year-old VLCC with a special survey due. I mean, that was at a historically high level considering the CapEx. And at the same time, we may take opportunities of fixing others. So this is something that we will do constantly with the target of the 20% 25% net LTV. It works both ways. You can create either cash flow up front or through the cash flows over the period. We just did a five-year deal on the tanker segment on product. That was at historically high level, very historically high. So this is something that we are concentrating and we are maximizing the opportunity. One of the things we have to realize is that this kind of a market we are having, we have a strong market in shipping that is driven from disruption and inefficiencies, Red Sea, Panama Canal, conflicts and good economies. We don't know how much of what is actually affecting the market. That's why you see us being taking the opportunity on fixing and also keeping in other sectors spot exposure. It's a balance.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Yes, no, that makes sense. And maybe a final one for me. Ted discussed the container market and how that's strengthened here recently. Obviously, a lot of uncertainty ahead given the order book. You do have a handful, not a big amount, but you have a handful of smaller vessels that come available for new charter. Has there been any shift in how liners have approached you or ship owners in general about looking for vessels, any sort of sense you can give on potential duration relative to what had been available, say, three months ago?

Angeliki Frangou

Management

If there is one sector that Red Sea has been very affected in a positive way, it has been the container sector. So, I mean, definitely we have seen, we have about four vessels that are coming open, and this is a kind of an environment where we judge whether you can do a two-year charter and create a contracted revenue or a sale. This is the kind of opportunity that you will be looking. Definitely, the additional round-the-cape and additional strengths of containers that you need has positively affected that sector. But it's a disruption that you don't know when, how this will change.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Yes, definitely. Okay, well, thanks, Angeliki. That's it for me. I'll turn it over.

Angeliki Frangou

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Hey, thanks. I guess I wanted to come back to the debt target, the leverage target that you mentioned, I think 25%. So can you talk about timing? How do you think, obviously, the market is stronger now, so does that accelerate the timeline at all in terms of reaching that? I want to get a sense of how you think about that.

Angeliki Frangou

Management

I think one of the issues, I'll say, you have these disruptions that if I take you back in October 1st of 2023, nobody knew what will happen. And we saw a totally different market that created cash flows and a value coming up. If we look on 2024, I think this is something that we'll see how it develops, because you can have disruptions, change, geopolitical events, and then you will see the real economies, how they are performing, which are not generally doing badly, but you don't know how much of the wind is from the one side or the other. And that will actually give you the opportunity because you may have values coming up. We have seen values coming on the dry bulk, on tankers coming up. You don't know how that will affect in a significant way. We have a very strong Q1 that we haven't seen for a long time. This developing over the year can bring you very quickly in your target. We will have on the second half, we will have the opportunity to know better. Sorry.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Okay. No, that's helpful. I appreciate it. And I guess, yes, I mean, when you think about the disruptions on the container side, whether it be Red Sea or Panama Canal, I guess two questions for you, and maybe more operational. So bear with me, I guess. Are you seeing anything from a demand standpoint transferring more to U.S. West Coast over U.S. East Coast? And then I think, and I guess, generally speaking, are you seeing liner companies change the way they deploy vessels to account for this? So are strings getting longer, more vessels being added on each one of these strings? I don't know how transparent that is to you as a vessel owner, but any comments you have there would be helpful in terms of how the operations are changing as a result of what's going on with the Red Sea.

Angeliki Frangou

Management

We've had some very interesting conversations with some of the liners, but Ted will give you in depth. I think this is a sector that is very, very much affected by both events.

Ted Petrone

Management

Hey, Chris. I would say it's a sector that's affected the most. 34% of all containers seem to go through that area, 20% of the vessels. You've had a lot of switching over to the West Coast. They've been -- the associations have been moving their ships around. So obviously, if you look at the SCFI going from the Far East into the West Coast, it's tripled since November. So there's a lot of movement around of cargo. So a lot of inefficiencies. Maybe it settles down. Maybe we've seen a high, but there's going to be a continuing upward pressure while this major sector gets eliminated, right? I mean you're just moving routes around, and now they've got to figure out what ships are going to go where. It's changing the landscape, and it looks to be with us for a while.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Do you have a sense of what you think the actual capacity reduction is from sort of the variety of disruptions going on in the market?

Ted Petrone

Management

Well, if you have – think about it. We have 34% of the containers going through and 20% of the vessels. So you're having the bigger vessels go. It's a bigger disruption for Europe. It's probably more inflationary. So it's sort of a mainline shift that's going to have to be diverted. Now, the mainline ships can't come to the States, but you have to fill in with the smaller ships. And so that's affecting the U.S. with the 14 to 16,000.

Angeliki Frangou

Management

I mean, in a ton-mile of rail, I think that you can see that you can build -- they will judge it afterwards, but it can have over 10% ton-mile effect on this.

Ted Petrone

Management

Overall the world. I'm just going to Europe. It's a good 33% more on the rail. So that you know…

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Yes, that's a good sign. Fantastic. Well, thanks so much for the time. I appreciate it.

Angeliki Frangou

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Angeliki for any closing remarks.

Angeliki Frangou

Management

Thank you. This completes our quarterly result. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And this does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.