Harold Bevis
Analyst · B. Riley Securities.
Yes, it's a good question. So, our cash flow from EBITDA in the second half of this year is a lot stronger than the first half. We went through a lot of severance and 2 plant closures at once. So, our adjusted EBITDA was looking good, but our cash from EBITDA was not looking good. And so, our cash flow game plan was working capital based. In the second half of this year, we've been benefiting from the adjusted EBITDA is pretty close to the EBITDA, is pretty close to the cash. Going into next year, we're going to have that again. So, we're going to have a benefit of that. And so, we think that the cash flow is going to continue strengthening. The working capital, we did $9 million of working capital in the quarter. But if you look at 12/31 to 9/30, our inventory went up $1.5 million and our AR went up $1.5 million. We offset that by having $8 million of improvement in AP. And our sales went down, and our COGS went down. So, you would expect them to go down more strongly, inventory and AR, but they were cropped up because of precious metals. So, Tim has reset our game plans to be more aggressive with taking the unit volume of inventory down. And Chris is looking at our overdue to terms AR because to make improvements we want with precious metal basis costs going up, we have to be better than we were planning to be. So, we're not going to back off of our cash from working capital plans for next year, and we're going to add to it a higher amount of EBITDA. So, you're right with your math, Mike. I think that without the CARES Act this year, it's 4 or 5. And next year, it should be around $10 million. One of the good things, though, that we haven't input into this is our cash interest, if you look at our attachments, our year-to-date cash interest is slightly less than last year, and rates are going down now. So, when the Fed cuts rates, that helps us with our variable rate debt. And as I mentioned earlier and everyone knows, we're attempting a refi here. And of course, we're going after the rate we pay on the term loan. So, I don't know, Mike, probably 2x, but that's not a big number, right? So maybe 10, just for talking purposes. It's not going to be 20. Chris, do you want to comment on that?