Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's Third Quarter 2015 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Kaitlin and I will be your operator today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Steve Movius, Treasurer and Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Movius, please proceed. Stephen C. Movius - Treasurer & Vice President-Investor Relations: Thanks, Kaitlin, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's third quarter 2015 conference call. Before we start, please understand the matters discussed on today's call constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to Safe Harbor provisions of Federal Securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainties, which are detailed in today's earnings release and our SEC filings. These risk factors may cause actual company results to differ materially. Matters discussed on today's call may also include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled in today's earnings release, which is posted to our website. On the call today are Wes Bush, our Chairman, CEO and President; and Ken Bedingfield, our CFO. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Wes. Wesley G. Bush - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Steve. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I want to start our call today by expressing how proud we are that the Air Force has chosen to partner with Northrop Grumman on our nation's new Stealth Bomber. Our selection continues a 35-year partnership that has provided the world's most advanced long range strike systems. As the company that developed and delivered the B-2 Spirit Stealth Bomber, we look forward to providing the Air Force a highly capable and affordable next generation bomber. Our nation urgently needs this capability to maintain military superiority and power projection for decades to come. The Air Force has made the right decision. Our team has the resources in place to successfully execute this important program and we are ready to get to work. I want to thank our team across the company that have worked so hard on this program for so many years. This team is fully committed to building the next bomber for our nation and they are truly an exceptional group of individuals. I know that many of you have questions about the program. Given the classified nature of the program, we will not be answering questions about it on our call today. The Air Force released a set of information regarding the program yesterday when it announced its decision. We will not be in a position today to provide any more information than has been released by the Air Force. So in our Q&A session, we will decline to address the program in any more detail. This win also validates that we are successfully positioning Northrop Grumman for innovation and affordability in support of our customers' missions. Part of that positioning for the future is the organizational realignment we announced earlier this month. We announced a realignment of our businesses into three sectors effective January 1, 2016. Our new structure is aimed at better focusing our innovation and affordability efforts to provide our customers enhanced mission capability at a reduced cost. By more effectively aligning and aggregating our product and services businesses, we are enabling greater synergy in the way we operate and we are enhancing our ability to develop, produce, sustain and upgrade our products over their lifecycle. The majority of our Information Systems portfolio focuses on sophisticated systems architecture and engineering including both advanced software and hardware capabilities. These elements will be combined with our Electronic Systems portfolio to create a more integrated platform to support development of new capabilities for our military and intelligence customers around the globe. Kathy Warden, currently President of Information Systems, will lead the new Mission Systems sector. The services elements of Information Systems will be combined with Technical Services to create a new sector, Technology Services. Over the years, we have deemphasized commodity-based services and we focused our existing TS sector on lifecycle support and modernization of systems and platforms as well as advanced training. The IS services portfolio will complement this work, as it also focuses on advanced support and services. Technology Services will better integrate the breadth of our capabilities to enable us to provide differentiated and value-added offerings to the U.S. and to our allies. Chris Jones, currently President of Technical Services, will lead our Technology Services sector. Tom Vice will continue to lead Aerospace Systems. Tom and the AF team have a tremendous set of current programs and new opportunities. Gloria Flach will become Northrop Grumman's Chief Operating Officer with responsibility for operational excellence and risk management and our corporate-wide activities for programs, engineering, global supply chain and quality. Gloria, Kathy, Tom and Chris will all continue to report to me. I'd like to address some of the speculation that this realignment is perhaps aimed at separating our services businesses. It is not. We've demonstrated that we actively manage our portfolio and we continually evaluate our portfolio to assess value creation opportunities. We have over the last several years reshaped the content of our service offerings to reposition us at the higher end of the market. Our margin rates show that those efforts have been successful. The reorganization of our services business is intended to strengthen this capability within our company. So we're happy with our portfolio today and look forward to the work that Chris and his expanded team will do to further improve our position. Looking at third quarter results, our team delivered another solid performance. Third quarter EPS increased 22%, reflecting strong operating income and the benefit of share repurchases. Share repurchases continue to be an integral part of our capital deployment strategy. In May of 2013, we announced a goal of retiring 25% of our then outstanding shares by the end of 2015. I'm pleased to report that we have achieved that goal shortly after the end of the quarter. We completed the planned repurchases at an average price of approximately $125 per share. Since initiating share repurchases in 2003, we have reduced our share count by about 50% at an average price of approximately $75. Our capital deployment strategy, with share repurchases being a significant component, has successfully created shareholder value. During the quarter, our board approved a new $4 billion share repurchase authorization. At the end of the third quarter, $4.6 billion remained on our share repurchase authority. With this new authorization, share repurchase will continue to be an important element our strategy, but we do not intend to announce a new target for share count reduction. In 2013, we took the approach of announcing a specific target because we were going to the debt markets to support achievement of that target. Going forward, we will return to our prior approach of assessing our repurchases from time-to-time in the context of our capital deployment strategy, which has not changed. That strategy is to invest in our businesses, manage our balance sheet and return cash to shareholders through a competitive dividend and share repurchases. Our first priority, of course, continues to be investing in our business. We have increased our IRAD and capital spending to support our customers' needs for innovation and affordability. We also have greater visibility into a more favorable opportunity set ahead of us. We believe our portfolio is well aligned for long-term profitable growth. The global environment of continually expanding and evolving security threats drives an urgent need on the part of our customers for innovative and affordable technologies. We are investing to support their missions and we are encouraged by the news that the administration and congressional leadership have reached the two-year budget deal that provides some stability for federal budgeting and helps to minimize the threat of a government shutdown or a debt-ceiling showdown. This type of action is needed to provide stability and to support our customers' ability to plan for and properly execute our nation's security strategy. We hope that Congress quickly implements this agreement as we are rapidly approaching a debt-ceiling deadline and the CR we are working under expires on December 11. In summary, it was a solid quarter. Based on year-to-date results, we now expect 2015 sales between $23.6 billion and $23.8 billion. We are increasing earnings per share guidance to between $9.70 and $9.80. And we are refining our cash from operations guidance to approximately $2.6 billion and we expect free cash flow of approximately $2 billion. So now, I'll turn the call over to Ken for a more detailed discussion of our third quarter results and our guidance. Ken? Kenneth L. Bedingfield - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: Thanks, Wes. I want to thank the team for a job well done and also congratulate our team on the LRS-B win. It was another good quarter. Overall, we continue to perform well with sales comparable to last year's third quarter and strong margin rates. Earnings per share grew 22%, driven by strong performance and a 10% decline in weighted average share count. I would note that our third quarter results do not reflect the impact of the tax methods change we discussed on last quarter's call and previously expected to occur in the third quarter. The IRS notified us of their acceptance of the change this month and those impacts will occur in the fourth quarter. Turning to sector results. We had strong performance across the board. Aerospace Systems sales for the quarter and year-to-date are up about 1% and reflect higher F-35 and E-2D production volume as well as higher volume for our unmanned programs. These increases were partially offset by declines in a number of other programs, the largest of which was the F/A-18, as deliveries on this program continue to ramp down. Aerospace third quarter and year-to-date operating income and margin rates are lower than last year due to one-time items in last year's third quarter which added about $90 million of operating income. You recall that last year's AS operating income included $75 million for settlements and also benefited from lower CAS pension cost due to the HATFA legislation. Based on year-to-date results, we expect full year Aerospace sales of approximately $10 billion, the high end of our prior guidance, and we continue to expect a margin rate of about 12%. Moving to Electronic Systems, third quarter sales increased 2% and on a year-to-date basis are comparable to last year. Third quarter operating income was consistent with last year. The slight decline in operating margin rate is due to the HATFA driven reduction of last year's pension cost, which increased margin rates in last year's third quarter. Although year-to-date operating income is somewhat lower than last year due to the mix of mature production and cost-type development work, operating margin rate continues to be strong. We expect full year ES sales of approximately $6.9 billion, the high end of our prior range, and we continue to expect ES operating margin rate in a low to mid 15% range. Information Systems third quarter and year-to-date sales were down about 3%, consistent with our expectations. Third quarter operating margin rate was comparable to the prior year period. The sector continues to perform very well and is maintaining strong operating income and margin rates. Based on year-to-date performance, we expect IS sales of approximately $6 billion, the midpoint of our prior guidance range, and we now expect an operating margin rate of approximately 10%. Technical Services third quarter sales rose 1% and year-to-date sales are up 3%. Third quarter operating income was comparable to last year, with a decline in operating margin rate due in part to lower income from an unconsolidated joint venture. For the year, we continue to expect sales of about $2.8 billion with a margin rate of approximately 9%. Turning to consolidated results. Segment operating margin rate was 12.1% in the quarter, and 12.4% year-to-date. Operating margin rate for the quarter was 13.3% and 13.4% year-to-date. Operating income and margin rates for both periods reflect lower segment operating income offset by higher net FAS/CAS pension adjustment and lower unallocated corporate expense. The increase in net FAS/CAS is driven by the impact of HATFA legislation last year. As I mentioned earlier, third quarter corporate unallocated expense does not include the impact of the tax methods change which will now increase fourth quarter unallocated corporate expense for state taxes by approximately $45 million. In addition to this state tax item, when we complete our state tax reporting process later this year, we expect it to result in a lower future state effective tax rate. This would reduce our state deferred tax asset by between $15 million and $40 million with $25 million being the most likely. This amount will flow through corporate unallocated. Based on these tax items, and our historical pattern of higher unallocated at the end of the year, we expect 2015 unallocated corporate expense of approximately $200 million. As a result of the methods change approved by the IRS this month, we expect our fourth quarter tax rate will move above the statutory rate due to lower deductions for domestic production activities. For the year, we expect an effective tax rate of approximately 31.5%, absent an R&D tax credit extension for 2015. We continue to expect a weighted average diluted share count of approximately 192 million for the full year. Looking at our EPS guidance for the year, we now expect EPS between $9.70 and $9.80. The higher range reflects strong year-to-date performance offset by the additional state tax impacts on unallocated corporate expense. Turning to cash. Before discretionary pension contributions, year-to-date cash from operations totaled $854 million and free cash flow totaled $520 million. Year-to-date cash is lower than last year due to timing of program collections. We now expect cash from operations of approximately $2.6 billion and free cash flow of approximately $2 billion. This considers $600 million in capital spending versus our prior estimate of $700 million. Just a quick update on pension items. Based on the demographics update completed in the third quarter, we are increasing our net FAS/CAS pension adjustment to income of approximately $335 million. Net plan asset returns through the end of last week were a bit above 1%. However, assuming 2015 plan asset returns of zero and a 4.5% discount rate for 2016, we would expect net FAS/CAS pension income of approximately $240 million versus our prior 2016 estimate of $475 million. Under these assumptions, FAS essentially doubles to about $600 million and our CAS estimate increases by about $75 million to $840 million. Our prior estimate was based on our actual 2015 discount rate and expected plan asset returns of 8%. We have a couple of months to go before we finalize our assumptions but further for your modeling purposes, a 100 basis point change in return on assets impacts FAS expense by approximately $50 million and a 25 basis point change in our discount rate impacts FAS by about $70 million. Steve, I think we're ready for Q&A. Stephen C. Movius - Treasurer & Vice President-Investor Relations: Thanks, Ken. As a courtesy, each participant should limit themselves to a single one-part question and return to the queue for additional questions. Kaitlin?