Earnings Labs

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 29, 2020

$576.45

+0.20%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-0.35%

1 Week

-2.65%

1 Month

-0.35%

vs S&P

-4.56%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Northrop Grumman’s First Quarter 2020 Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. My name is Josh and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to your host today, Mr. Todd Ernst, Treasurer and Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

Todd Ernst

Analyst

Thanks, Josh. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Northrop Grumman’s first quarter 2020 conference call. We will refer to a PowerPoint presentation that is posted to our IR webpage this morning. Before we start, matters discussed on today’s call, including 2020 guidance reflect the company’s judgment based on the information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to Safe Harbor provision of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are noted in today’s press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially. Matters discussed on today’s call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled in our earnings release and supplemental PowerPoint presentation. Our earnings release contains a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating measures to our GAAP results. On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chairman, CEO and President; and Dave Keffer, our CFO. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

Kathy Warden

Analyst

Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today. Before turning to our quarterly earnings, I would like to address the COVID-19 impact. I want to thank those who have been working to keep us safe, particularly those on the frontlines in the healthcare and first responder communities. I also want to thank our Northrop Grumman employees. While each of us faces unique challenges, our team’s dedication to the mission is allowing us to continue providing products and services to our customers. Our first priority is protecting the health, safety and well-being of our team. We are requiring telecommuting for those who can do so and we have enhanced the safety of workspaces for those who must come to work in person. Our facilities remain open and we are taking extraordinary measures in an effort to maintain healthy working condition. These include implementing staggered shifts, health monitoring, social distancing, face coverings and more robust cleaning. In addition, we have expanded employee benefits and well-being programs. We are also supporting our suppliers with a particular focus on our small and midsized business partners. We are advancing approximately $30 million of payments per week to critical, small and midsized suppliers and we expect these payment advances will exceed $200 million. In addition, with the actions taken by the Department of Defense to increase progress payments, we are flowing that full supplier benefit to our suppliers in a timely fashion. While we have not had a material supply chain disruption, some are being impacted more than others and our global supply chain team continues to actively engage with our suppliers to address issues and find new opportunities to help them and we are supporting our local communities. We are donating to organizations involved in COVID-19 relief efforts, supporting frontline…

Dave Keffer

Analyst

Thanks, Kathy and good morning, everyone. Before I begin my comments, I would call your attention to this morning’s 8-K filing that recast certain sections of our 2019 Form 10-K to reflect our new sector alignment. We also provided a schedule in our earnings release that provides recast sales and operating income by sector for the last 3 years in each of the quarters in 2019. My comments begin with first quarter highlights on Slide 3. Excluding the impacts of the pandemic, our first quarter results were about as expected. Sales were up 5%, reflecting top line growth in all four of our businesses. Segment OM was solid at 11.1% and net awards totaled $7.9 billion. Awards were particularly strong at space, where total backlog increased 3%. Earnings per share increased 2% to $5.15. Slide 4 provides a bridge between first quarter 2019 EPS and first quarter 2020 EPS. While we did not have material COVID-19 operational impacts in Q1 and our businesses performed largely as expected, the volatility in capital markets did impact earnings as losses on marketable securities and the related tax impacts reduced this year’s first quarter earnings. I will begin a review of sector results on Slide 5. Aeronautics sales were up 1% for the quarter with higher volume at both autonomous systems and manned aircraft. Higher volume on restricted programs and Global Hawk drove the increase partially offset by ramp-downs in B-2 DMS and NATO AGS as those programs near completion. While not a significant factor in first quarter results, later in March we did begin to see COVID-19 related volume pressure in the supply chain and in employee attendance, particularly at certain manufacturing facilities. I will talk more about this when we cover guidance. At Defense Systems, sales rose 6% due to higher volume…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. You may proceed with your question.

Robert Stallard

Analyst

Thanks so much. Good morning.

Kathy Warden

Analyst

Good morning, Rob.

Robert Stallard

Analyst

A question I have on GBSD, there has been some talk that the Air Force may move a bit quicker in awarding this contract, I was wondering if this might make any sort of material impact on your results in 2020 or does this really flow through in later years? Thank you.

Kathy Warden

Analyst

So, Rob, yes, we are working with the Air Force and negotiating the contract now. And we are prepared through actions we have been taking to move if the Air Force is able to accelerate this award. But it would be a modest acceleration. We anticipate the award was already planned for the quarter of this year and what we see is that it would likely be only a month or two of acceleration if acceleration happens. We don’t expect that to have a material impact on 2020, but certainly getting started more quickly de-risks the program to some extent and allows us to be more confident in meeting those milestones along the path to the 2029 IOC dates for the program.

Robert Stallard

Analyst

That’s great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jon Raviv with Citi.

Jon Raviv

Analyst · Citi.

Thank you and good morning. Just kind of big picture here. How are you guys thinking about the business positioning on not only the current environment, but sort of what the environment is going to be going forward understanding you have a lot of products and capabilities that’s still aligned with current national defense strategy requirements. By anyway, how would you align to maybe future government spending priorities, you mentioned your work with the CDC, for example, in recent weeks, how do you think about where you aligned – where you put a line elsewhere going forward?

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Citi.

Well, certainly, Jon, we see the demand for our product remaining strong and that’s primarily driven by the threat environment. And I noted a few areas where we are seeing the Presidential budget for ‘21 reflect significant increases in areas like space, missile defense, hypersonics and other advanced weapons. And so those areas we expect to continue to be in focus as well as the deterrent strategy of our nation which depends on the triad and has obviously modernization happening across all three legs of the triad. So those areas are going to continue to be areas of both strength in our portfolio, but areas of importance as we look at demand near and long term. We are very pleased to be supporting the government in other areas that has become increasingly important in dealing with the pandemic. I noted the work that we’re doing currently for the CDC and we’re very proud of that work. We’ve been doing that for a number of years and while it has been relevant, previously, it’s never been as relevant as it is today. And the amount of information that we’re able to share around the globe to help people make informed decisions about this pandemic spread and how to reduce the spread is certainly something that we’ll continue to do and work that we are very proud of.

Jon Raviv

Analyst · Citi.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse.

Robert Spingarn

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Good morning. Kathy, I wanted to ask you just a high-level question about the budget now that we’ve had it, and what you might be hearing from the hill in terms of your programs and how they’re doing and specifically, if you could touch on Triton and the fact that that program was zeroed out at least from a procurement quantity perspective?

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Thanks, Rob. So we are overall pleased with the ‘21 budget request. As I noted in the previous question, there are areas of significant budget increase that are well aligned with our priorities and certainly we were pleased to see that. We also have a number of programs that are well-supported in the budget. I noted a few of those in my opening comments, areas like SABR, E-2D, certainly F-35 continues to be well-supported as well. As we look at areas where we saw some provision on our programs, Triton being an example, what we see in the budget request is the pause in production with the intent of putting resources toward R&D on new sensor. And we had anticipated that. So it will be somewhat of an offset to the production pause, the works that we’ll do in the R&D. We also have the sale in Triton which will provide some quantity that bridge the US production pause as well. And of course we continue to work with Congress as they deliberate on the budget to determine if we can get those two aircraft added back. So those are some of the actions that we’re taking with Triton, but we do see that it is not just a production pause. This is the continued commitment to the program and investment in additional sensors to make the program and the make [Phonetic] the platform more robust.

Robert Spingarn

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

Seth Seifman

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Oh, thanks very much and good morning. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about, you mentioned higher second half margins in Aeronautics and its implied by the guidance as well. So I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more specifically about what gives you the confidence after the kind of 9%ish in Q1, and what seems like operationally it will be more challenging Q2 because of the virus, kind of, what gives you that confidence in the second half?

Dave Keffer

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Hey Seth, it’s Dave. I’ll get started on that one. The – Our outlook for the year for AS margins and for total Company margins is that we expect the second half to be stronger than the first, largely because of the easing of COVID impacts in the second half, particularly compared to Q2. In AS, in particular a lot of the margin rate movement from quarter to quarter in that business is timing related. On a year-over-year basis, we saw that the timing of some risk reductions, particularly around F-35 made for a tough compare year-over-year, and we do see opportunity for greater margins going forward in that business both near and long-term than those that it delivered in the first quarter. And so, we expect that kind of strength in the second half of the year to materialize in AS. I think of it as largely timing driven around key program profit milestones and risk reductions that we see more likely coming in the second half than the first.

Seth Seifman

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

Peter Arment

Analyst · Baird.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Kathy and Dave. Kathy, just you mentioned some of these supplier disruptions, or you started to see that a little bit from COVID-19. Maybe just give us a little more color on kind of your assessment of the supply chain and your confidence around whether there is alternative sources or what kind of audits you went through to kind of assess the impacts going forward? Thanks.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Baird.

Yes. Thank you, Peter. As I mentioned, our supply chain management team has been very active in monitoring our supply chain for risks and mitigation strategies that can counter those risk. We have not seen significant disruption to this point, but every supplier has unique circumstances with some we have worked to enable them to continue operations by sharing best practices for social distancing and other safety protocols. With others, we have advanced payment to help with liquidity concerns as I noted in my script. And then, in addition, we have continued to monitor for disruption in the supply chain to our production lines. We’ve seen a few modest impacts at this point in time, nothing that is causing us considerable program interruption. But as I said, the Q2 impact is where we expect to see the most significant, so we’re not through the disruption at this point in time, but we are seeing positive trends both in our own facilities and with our suppliers. We are starting to see absenteeism reduce and more people coming to work in the production facilities. We are seeing small businesses that had to pause operations for a short period of time resuming their operations. And so, I would say that the trajectory is positive, but we still have uncertainty ahead.

Peter Arment

Analyst · Baird.

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

Sheila Kahyaoglu

Analyst · Jefferies.

Hi, good morning Kathy and welcome Dave. Kathy, a question for you please. Your overall business is set to grow at 3% to 5% this year. And given restricted is a higher proportion relative to peers, how do you think about the trajectory of restricted growth and are there areas, specific areas outside of space that you have higher confidence in the growth outlook, irrespective of what happens with the budget?

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Jefferies.

Sheila, good morning and thank you for the question. We do see restricted continuing to grow faster than the remainder of our business. And in the first quarter is just an indicator, we saw 1.3 book-to-bill in our restricted portfolio. This was largely driven by space awards as you know, we have significant restricted work across the portfolio. We’ve in the past talked a good deal about the Aeronautics restricted business, that space is also growing rapidly as is Mission Systems. And so, it really is a widespread that we are seeing that restricted growth. And we anticipate that continuing, as we look forward at opportunities that we have for the remainder of the year as well as programs in the portfolio today. And their growth rate, we anticipate that share of restricted business to continue to grow. It’s up to about 28% now and as we have previously said, we expect that to go even higher.

Sheila Kahyaoglu

Analyst · Jefferies.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Strauss with Barclays.

David Strauss

Analyst · Barclays.

Thanks. Good morning.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Barclays.

Good morning.

David Strauss

Analyst · Barclays.

Kathy wanted to ask you, so you comment on the impact from commercial aerospace. I assume that’s all A350, can you just touch on that? And then on GBSD, I think you talked about $250 million in revenue this year. Can you give us some color on how that’s going to ramp over the course of the next couple of years and when does that program become bigger than B-21? Thanks.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Barclays.

So David, I’ll start on the question about commercial aero. Our commercial aero work is actually spread over three different efforts, the largest of which is the A350. And we are expecting the impact across all of those efforts. And we will begin to see that in Q2, but it will persist. It’s largely driven by the demand in commercial aero. And so that is why in particular, Aeronautics sector is contributing to the slight decline that we have in our revenue guide for the year. In response to your question about GBSD and the ramp, we expect that to be a gradual ramp as is the case when you start E&P contract, the engineering phase tends to be very label driven and we will be adding headcounts and driving activities over the next several years. And we wouldn’t see a peak in that program for a while. I am not going to specifically address the part of the question, but when it becomes larger than B-21. I know what you are trying to do there is give a little bit more information on B-21 than I could do. But certainly, GBSD will be a significant program in our portfolio as will B-21.

David Strauss

Analyst · Barclays.

Okay, thanks.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Barclays.

Okay. Good try.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe DeNardi with Stifel.

Joe DeNardi

Analyst · Stifel.

Hey, good morning. Kathy, can you just talk a little bit about the opportunities for the in-orbit servicing work that you are doing, I think that was a program we are not considering that Orbital was pretty excited about longer term. Are there certain milestones that you are looking for there and then just kind of what’s the optimistic scenario for what could look like eventually? Thank you.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Stifel.

Yes. And we continue to be excited about that opportunity. And as I noted, this award from DARPA that we received in the first quarter now will add capability to what we can do with the servicing mission. So at this point, we are able to do life extension as we are doing on the Intelsat 901 satellite with our first operation, but the robotic servicing will allow us to provide other servicing functionality. So it opens up the market in that regard and clearly is an indicator that we would be able to service not only commercial, but potentially government satellites as well. So when we look at the market, we are bullish, but cautious and that this is the first of a kind and we want to continue to march through milestones of succession that would lead us to believe that we can accomplish this much broader set of servicing missions that certainly life extensions servicing which we have already accomplished with the Intelsat satellite is something we feel comfortable will be a robust and growing market for us.

Joe DeNardi

Analyst · Stifel.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Doug Harnett with Bernstein.

Doug Harnett

Analyst · Bernstein.

Yes. Good morning. Thank you. In the new organization structure and I am interested in understand what – how this works now, in other words, those in terms of the costs you are still working through on integration, but then also in the structure what should we now see as the benefits going forward? And I would say that on two sides, one in revenue synergies and the other in the ability to actually improve margins a little bit as you look at the next couple of years?

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Bernstein.

So Doug, certainly with the integration that we are doing, we have already met our cost targets for the integration of Orbital ATK. And the next logical step that we took at the beginning of this year was realigning the sector structure, we see continued opportunity for cost reduction through the new sector alignment and that is a clear objective that we had for doing that realignments at the beginning of this year one of the other and I would say that more important is the ability to capture the revenue synergy and successfully execute on those programs. So that is the primary reason why we took the new sector alignment, but certainly, cost reduction was also a part of our objective help for the team. And I am pleased with the progress that we are making there as a matter of fact as we look at this year we have some increased COVID-19 related costs as company does as we do more of the safety protocols, cleaning, social distancing and we fully expect as we have said in our guidance that we can offset those through other cost reduction measures that we anticipate taking this year. So we are looking ahead and believe that not only the sector realignment, but actions that we will continue to take as the sector is operate in this new structure will allow us some cost reduction opportunities. Dave, anything else you would like to add?

Dave Keffer

Analyst · Bernstein.

As you mentioned, Doug, we are going through the standard process now around realigning systems and rate pools and such kind of on the administrative side of the realignment. But I think the bigger picture Kathy mentions is the important one which is that the realignment enables both top line synergy going forward as well as further improvements in cost management around the business and that those are timely given the environment we find ourselves in, in 2020.

Doug Harnett

Analyst · Bernstein.

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Myles Walton with UBS.

Myles Walton

Analyst · UBS.

Thanks. Good morning. Kathy, I wanted to hone in on a comment you made about hiring actually, which was 10,000 jobs unfilled that were posted and 3,500 hires in the first quarter. On a 90,000 employee base, I’m just wondering how much of this is going to be net growth and should we use that as a calibration as to the speed of revenue growth, as you look into 2021? Thanks.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · UBS.

Thanks, Myles. So, as we look at our hiring, we have a number of open positions both to support existing business, but also anticipation of future awards. So I would tell you that we only do that hiring if we indeed get those awards as we look forward. So, open positions are not necessarily a direct correlation to the number of hires that we will ultimately make. And as we look at this year in particular, we go into a year with an assumption around attrition. So that gets us to net head, and the labor market was very tight at the beginning of this year. As we are working through the last two months, we’re seeing that attrition is dropping as you might expect as other opportunities are becoming more scarce. And so, we are in the process of looking at what that may present, it’s both challenge and opportunity for us going forward. And so, we are actively working on hiring and being very successful in hiring as I noted. Still even as we were dealing with the challenges of the pandemic in March, we saw 1,300 plus hires and April continues to also be strong where we’ve moved to virtual as you might expect to accommodate most of that hiring. And so, as we look forward, the net head, I wouldn’t put a number on it, but we do expect significant headcount growth this year because of the program volume increases that we have, the sales growth as well as the anticipated awards in the latter half of this year.

Myles Walton

Analyst · UBS.

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Carter Copeland with Melius Research.

Carter Copeland

Analyst · Melius Research.

Hey, good morning. I wondered if you could just expand briefly on the hiring. It looks like obviously the classified portion of the business is increasing in its share. And I wondered if you might just speak to what portion of that hiring that you mentioned, the 10,000 jobs is cleared personnel and maybe just give us a sense of, if there is a challenge given the growth in restricted work that you expect in terms of getting either clear personnel on or getting folks hired and then getting them cleared, just help us understand kind of that dynamic and how you are dealing with it? Thanks.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Melius Research.

Thanks, Carter. Yes, a significant portion of that hiring is for cleared personnel. We don’t always hire an individual who is already cleared. We have other opportunities that we are able to put people on while they await their clearance. And we’ve also seen the department take actions that have accelerated clearance processing. And those have been very helpful. We still obviously have a waiting period for those individuals, but it is getting shorter through the actions that the government is taking. And so, what we do is, we do both hiring of individuals who already have clearance directly onto those restricted programs as well as pipelining through our unclassified work with the intention of moving those individuals on restricted programs once their clearance comes through. And we have been doing that for years, and it has worked well for us, it’s not something that’s driving an inordinate amount of increased costs to our business because we have this portfolio, that has so much both unclassified and classified work. And I’ll note that classification is relative to their different levels, of clearances required and so people can step through those clearance levels as well.

Carter Copeland

Analyst · Melius Research.

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen and Company.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst · Cowen and Company.

Yes. Thank you very much. So, could you give us any color on the significant classified space awards in the first quarter? And secondly, you know, it was a little stronger for first quarter in terms of total bookings than maybe some of us expected. Where do you see the backlog going by year end and what are the key drivers to get it there?

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Cowen and Company.

So, Cai, in terms of backlog for the year, we still anticipate it to be above one even without GBSD. Clearly GBSD, we expect to be a sizable award if we receive it. And so, that would drive book to bill well above one. As we look at the first quarter, we did have less than one book to bill, but we had anticipated, that as you said and it signals that we expected, most of our significant awards to happen later in the year. We did have the large space restricted awards that we noted. And while we can’t provide any detail about what they are, who they are for, or the value of them, they were ones that we have been working for a period of time and did anticipate getting, but they were competitive. So we clearly had factored them to some extent in our plans for the year and we are very pleased to be selected and awarded those contracts for the quarter.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst · Cowen and Company.

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research.

Hunter Keay

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Hey, good morning.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Good morning.

Hunter Keay

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Thank you. So I was wondering, if you could follow up to the exchange we had with Doug earlier. I’m kind of curious about – can you maybe give me some examples or even better quantify the amount of costs you’re taking out specifically from coronavirus and this is obviously primarily an Aerospace conversation, how many of those – how much of those costs can you actually keep out once you resume normal production rates? And again, if you could maybe quantify the margin potential, just basically trying to figure out if you can use this as an opportunity to take out cost that you wanted to take out before and maybe keep them out, if you understand. Thank you.

Dave Keffer

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

So, I’ll be happy to start on that one, Hunter. It’s tough to quantify that specific volumes of cost take out that are possible both near-term and then on a permanent basis as you mentioned. Certainly, there is an opportunity to reduce costs during the pandemic related to travel and conferences and trade shows and other kind of low hanging fruit like that, that are naturally declining in the business. And we’ll look to harvest those cost savings and continue to manage those areas throughout the rest of the year. But then, we’re also taking this opportunity to look around at the business and find other areas of efficiency. Kathy has been clear over the past year about driving increased efficiencies, strong performance around the business, being an agile Company that moves quickly and reduces bureaucracy. And so, that’s part and parcel of what we’re looking at today and that’s not in any one sector more than others nor more than at the corporate level. At all levels we’re taking a look at those opportunities. The margin impacts will depend to a degree on the business mix by segment. And so, those that have more cost-plus work have less margin impact, but greater impact on the competitiveness of their businesses as we look for opportunities to take out cost. So those are different impact depending on the segment, but a broad Company effort to drive that efficiency this year.

Hunter Keay

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

Noah Poponak

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Hey, good morning everybody.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Hi, Noah.

Noah Poponak

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Just want to make sure I fully understand all the moving pieces and the Aeronautics margin in the quarter. In the release it cites the EAC move in autonomous, F-35 risk retirement and then some mix. Is it may be possible to size those in terms of how much of the year-over-year change came from each of them? Was there any one-time kind of charge related to the commercial aerospace pieces? Just want to fully understand that year-over-year change. And then, if you have any thoughts you could share on where that segment’s profitability can go longer term three years to five years out, would love to hear that. Thank you.

Dave Keffer

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Sure. Thanks Noah. I’ll get started on that one. The two buckets you mentioned were approximately even in overall size. What I think is important to note is that, no one specific program had a material enough impact to be called out individually. And so year-over-year, it was a tough compare quarter for AS given that there was, the timing of some of those risk reductions in last year’s Q1 created a tough compare. But in this year’s Q1, there were pressures on a few programs, fewer upsides on others than we might typically see in a given quarter, again much of that is timing related, and we try to take that into account as we look at the rest of the year. I think the other thing that’s important to note there is, in a more typical year, we would have expected to see more opportunity to mitigate those Q1 challenges in Q2 through Q4. But of course, our timing is increasingly short there given the impacts of the COVID pandemic on Q2, particularly in the volume pressures that we’re seeing in AS. And so that makes it more difficult to mitigate those Q1 pressures than a typical year would provide.

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

And Noah, on your question about the longer term and where we think AS margins can go. Certainly, all things being equal, we expect three years to five years out to have a higher production mix than we have today, because we have some significant development program in Aeronautics as we sit here today. And that would naturally create opportunity for margin improvement during that period.

Noah Poponak

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

George Shapiro

Analyst · Shapiro Research.

Yes, good morning. I had wanted to know, the expectation has been that your sales would grow faster than other people. But it hasn’t happened that way. Can you point to some inflection point or what quarter or year we might start to see the sales growth to better than others or much better than the budget that’s going to decline over the next several years?

Kathy Warden

Analyst · Shapiro Research.

So, you know, George, I wouldn’t want to try to predict a quarter, at which point we would see an inflection compared to peers because I don’t have the insight into our peers. I do feel like we’ve performed well relative to the market. We have increased our competitive win rate and that’s a strong indicator of performance in the competitive marketplace. We have also shown significant improvement in our backlog and we’re pleased with where it sits and also have a number of opportunities that we’ve outlined to build that backlog this year, and we anticipate doing so. So, what I really focus on is looking forward, how are we positioned regardless of what defense budget do in this country and around the globe. Do we have a portfolio that’s well aligned to the highest growth areas? And the answer to that is yes, as we sit here today and we believe will continue to be areas of exposure like the strategic deterrence programs that – in the case of B-21, we’ve already captured, in the case of GBSD we anticipate being awarded later this year. In the case of Space, which is the fastest growing in the President’s ‘21 budget for this year, we certainly have good exposure with hypersonics and other advanced weapons now in the portfolio and expect that we can continue to grow off of what is today a small base, but an area where we expect to have significant demand. And we believe those areas of demand will be key regardless of what the top line budget looks like, because they are based on the advancement of our adversaries capabilities and the threats that they impose. So based on that, we feel positive about how our portfolio is positioned for growth. And we anticipate that we can continue to create strong shareholder value through that growth, successful execution and turning that into earnings.

Todd Ernst

Analyst · Shapiro Research.

Operator, we have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

Ron Epstein

Analyst

Yes, good morning everyone. Kathy…

Kathy Warden

Analyst

Hi, Ron.

Ron Epstein

Analyst

There has been discussion in the industrial policy office in the DoD about accelerating progress payments and then getting that pushed down in the supply chain. How is that impacting you, and when you think about your supply base, particularly those suppliers who have significant commercial aerospace businesses, do you worry about disruptions there and how are you handling that?

Kathy Warden

Analyst

Yes, Ron. We have seen the impact of the increase in progress payments to 90% that the Department has offered. And we are flowing that full supplier benefit down to our suppliers in a timely fashion. And as I noted earlier in my comments, in addition to that, we are also doing some advances for suppliers paying in advance, because we want to help them with the challenges they are having, particularly those suppliers that straddle both defense programs and commercial aerospace programs. And so we believe that our suppliers are well supported by us today, but we monitor that on a daily basis, because it’s an evolving situation for them, particularly those that are exposed on that demand side to the commercial aero market.

Dave Keffer

Analyst

And what I would add to that is we have fewer progress payment contracts than some of our similarly sized peers do and that we are being sure to quickly flow through to our suppliers their portion of that benefit. So, when you aggregate the net benefit to Northrop Grumman certainly we appreciate the work of our customers to increase that benefit, but it doesn’t change our cash flow guidance for the year. The upside we have some additional benefit from the progress payments as well as potential tax benefits we mentioned on the call. And offsetting those, we have the impacts of COVID that we discussed to include the interest on the new bond. So, that keeps us in the same range of cash flow that we were projecting previously.

Ron Epstein

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Todd Ernst

Analyst

Alright, great. Well, thank you. I now turn it over to Kathy for closing comments.

Kathy Warden

Analyst

Thanks, Todd. Well, I am very pleased to have Dave on our team and helping to lead through the challenges of the pandemic. We and the entire Northrop Grumman team remain resolute in managing through these challenges and being well-positioned for the future. So, we look forward to speaking with you again in July. And until then, please stay well.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation.