Nick O'Grady
Analyst · Daniel Energy Partners. Please state your question.
Yeah, I mean, I think my view broadly at the macro level is a couple of things. One, this reminds me a lot of when I started in the industry at the end of the 90s. And it had been a bruising 15-year downturn for the sector. And oil went from $10 to $40. And people really didn't respond, you know, except a handful of notorious E&P CEOs, which we all know their names. And then eventually after it lasted three or four years, you saw the sector take off and get rewarded for being undisciplined. And so I think that's really going to be predicated on the overall markets, those that aren't disciplined if they're rewarded by the markets that can start to feed itself into other companies. But the one thing I think we're aided by this go round, which was very similar to that kind of 2001 to 2004 period is that, primary reservoir is shrinking in the Lower 48. And so the ability for US companies to cap - on the capital efficient basis really grow at the same rates they have the last few years without drinking, you know, their entire milkshake of inventory is getting more challenging. And the decline rates may moderate some, but you know, with lower decline rates come higher fixed costs. And so I do think, one governor, that will play into all of this is that, that overall, I think, it's going to be harder for people, you know, to have the inventory and capital efficiency to drill at the same speeds they have, you know, even the Permian, we see a lot of maturity in areas that are largely, you know, the best stuff has already been drilled. So with that, and I guess, to sum up, your question is that, I think it really depends, I think, we like kind of, you know, nice oil prices, but not super high, because that discipline can start to waver. So if oil prices are $70, I can't promise the US industry won't lose discipline, I would push that back to Wall Street and say, make sure you keep them honest, because I think that that's going to be you know, people are enterprising and if they get rewarded for certain behavior, they're going to do it like a, you know, like a lab rat trying to get his water right so.