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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)

Q1 2025 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 30, 2025

$27.59

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the NOG’s First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It’s now my pleasure to introduce your host, Evelyn Infurna, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Evelyn Infurna

Analyst

Good morning. Welcome to NOG’s first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Yesterday, after the close, we released our financial results. You can access our earnings release and presentation in the Investor Relations section of our website at noginc.com. We will be filing our March 31st 10-Q with the SEC within the next few days. I'm joined this morning by our Chief Executive Officer, Nick O’Grady; our President, Adam Dirlam; our Chief Financial Officer, Chad Allen; and our Chief Technical Officer, Jim Evans. Our agenda for today's call is as follows. First, Nick will provide his introductory remarks. Then Adam will give you an overview of operations and business development activities, and Chad will review our financial results. After our prepared remarks, the team will be available to answer any questions. Before we begin, let me cover our Safe Harbor language. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from expectations contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our earnings release as well as our filings with the SEC, including our Annual Report on Form 10-K and our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. During today's call we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and free cash flow. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release. With that, I will turn the call over to Nick. Nick O’Grady: Thank you, Evelyn. Welcome and good morning everyone and thank you for your interest in…

Adam Dirlam

Analyst

Thank you, Nick. The operational results during the quarter largely speak for themselves, so I will cover some highlights and then discuss our outlook on the macro backdrop. The first quarter shaped up largely as expected, and we hit our stride [ph] operationally. Fourth quarter’s delays and deferrals resolved themselves quickly and our operating partners were able to bring on the anticipated TILs while logistical issues were also settled. This resulted in 27.3 net wells added to production as the Permian led the way with 40% of the activity. During the first quarter, we spun an additional 15.6 net wells and elected to 19.1 net wells. Consistent with expectations, the Permian accounted for roughly 60% in each category, while also seeing a slight increase in gas weighted activity. We are continuously monitoring and discussing plans with our operating partners. In the volatile environment we find ourselves in, our active management of the business and the benefits of a scaled non-op model will distinguish itself. We run our business and make capital decisions with constant consideration to downside risk which is why well elections are always sensitized with lower priced decks to stress test the resilience of returns in a potential lower for longer price environment. Our first quarter elections saw a 23% increase in lateral lengths relative to last year’s average, resulting in a 10% decrease to normalized well costs and driving an uplift in expected rates of return. The Permian and Uinta saw the largest increases in lateral lengths; however, this was consistent across all our respective basins. During the quarter, we elected 96% of our well proposals which had expected returns well above our hurdle rate at a flat $55 crude and $2.75 gas price deck. To date, our operating partners are making minimal changes to their development…

Chad Allen

Analyst

Thanks, Adam. We had a successful first quarter, mostly free from the noise of material disruptions seen in the prior quarter. First quarter total average daily production was approximately 135,000 BOE per day, up 2.5% versus Q4, with oil production coming in flat versus Q4 at approximately 79,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year total production increased by 13%, with oil production up 12%. Gas production has ramped both sequentially and year-over-year and contributed 42% to our production mix. Gas was up 6.5% on a sequential quarterly basis and 14% year-over-year. Our record Q1 production highlighted by double-digit sequential growth from the Uinta and Appalachian Basins help us to exceed internal estimates across several financial metrics. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was approximately $435 million a record for NOG and free cash flow is nearly $136 million, up 41% sequentially on reduced capital spending compared to last quarter. And this is our 21st consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow totaling over $1.7 billion since the beginning of 2020. On commodity realizations, oil differentials came in at the above the high-end of our guided range at $5.79 per barrel for the quarter, reflecting disruptions from the prior quarter and typical seasonal widening. However, we expect differentials to improve from here and are comfortable with our guided range of $4.75 to $5.5 for the year. Natural gas realizations were 100% of benchmark prices for the quarter, better sequentially from Q4 due to strong Williston realizations which were partially offset by weakness in Waha gas during the last half of the quarter. Similarly, we expect our guidance for gas realizations to accurately reflect the market outlook for the remainder of the year as it stands today. Cash operating costs continue to improve as our production mix continues to evolve. Our cash operating costs were…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Noah Hungness with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Noah Hungness

Analyst

My first question here, I was just hoping you guys could add maybe a little more color on the production cadence. I mean, keeping in mind the macro uncertainty that you guys had mentioned but also your strong 1Q production print; how can we think about that production cadence trending through the rest of the year?

Chad Allen

Analyst

Yes. As we discussed prior, we expect Flash [ph] production cadence to kind of the first 3 quarters of Q2 and early Q3 marking kind of the lowest in terms of activity. That means that CapEx will largely be equally weighted. It’s likely to be sequentially down in Q2. We have a large number of wells in process that are scheduled until later in the year. On the base case, we’d still expect Q4 to see the highest level of production absent any massive pullback in spending. A majority of our pullback in activity will likely affect the growth rates that we discussed but we would see -- we have to see significant curtailments or deferral -- deferrals to kind of have an effect on our production guidance, I guess. Nick O’Grady: But the situation, though, will remain really fluid. So obviously, with commodity prices all over the place, we’ll adjust accordingly.

Adam Dirlam

Analyst

Yes. I mean, the conversations that we’ve had with our operators kind of coming into quarter-end, you know, everybody is generally sticking to the plans that they came in on the year. That being said, I think everybody, you know, operators included, are going to stay nimble with their plans. And so if you’re going to see any sort of, you know, adjustment, that’s going to be seen towards the back half of the year.

Noah Hungness

Analyst

Got you. No, that makes sense. And then, my next question was on service pricing. Could you maybe talk about how service pricing today, when an AFE comes in your door, compares to where service pricing was, let’s say, at the start of the year?

Adam Dirlam

Analyst

Yes. From an AFE standpoint, on a normalized basis, as we alluded to, we’ve seen about a 10% decrease. That being said, that’s driven more from a 20% to 25% increase in overall lateral lengths relative to kind of the quarterly averages that we saw in 2024. From the conversations that we’ve had with operators and what we’re seeing on AFEs, drilling rates have generally been relatively sticky; completions is probably where we see any sort of relief. But again, I think out of conservatism, we’re keeping our estimates and guidance relatively flat as to what we released at the beginning of the year. Nick O’Grady: Yes. And I mean -- I’ll make two comments. One, for us, we will accrue basically at the AFE cost. So to the extent that costs come down, it will only be at the end. And so obviously, as new wells come in, they will be adjusted accordingly. But for older wells, to the extent we see cost relief, it will take some time for us to true that up. But what I would say is, I’ve never seen a scenario where oil prices went down a lot, well costs went up. So I’ll eat crow if I’m wrong but I don’t think I’m going to be wrong this time either. The majority of our operators have pre-purchased 6 to 12 months of their expected materials; so that is one thing to be -- we have gotten a lot of questions about tariffs and things like that. So we have not seen a material impact from that type of stuff at this point in time.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

Noel Parks

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

I apologize if you touched on this already but I’m just wondering, has the change in sort of oil and gas outlook, which of course has been particularly volatile lately, has that shaken lose any potential sellers of non-op interests out there? Just as, again, the world is looking a little different now than it did 3, 6 months ago.

Adam Dirlam

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

Yes. I mean I think it’s early days. What I would say in order to kind of frame that up for you; we screened, call it, a 100 round game transactions in the first quarter. As it stands today in April, we’ve already screened 100 transactions, so it’s certainly accelerating. And so, when you think about operators as well as other non-operators who may have the inability to fund some of these well proposals for operators looking to pair [ph] back their CapEx spend, the first place they’re going to go is to the -- their non-op regardless of expected returns. And so that’s what we’re seeing right now. I think what remains to be seen -- I mean we’re starting to make some traction in the second quarter is, you know, what does that mean from a conversion standpoint. We’re going to be highly selective with whatever we choose to bid on and we’re running downside scenarios to ensure that we’ve got full cycle rates of return that are pencilling at a lower for longer type of price environment.

Noel Parks

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

Right. It’s interesting. So is fair to say then that it -- as opposed to other non-operated holders who might have had positions for a long time like -- generational selling, that it’s actually operators themselves taking a quick look around and saying, “Okay, what can we offload?”

Adam Dirlam

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

Yes. I think it’s a combination of the two. And I would say that that’s more the -- the smaller side of things. On the larger kind of M&A, you’re going to see with the volatility a natural slowdown, right? You’ve got expectations coming into the year on larger packages where the bid ask spread is going to widen. Now if this settles out and you’ve got some relative consistency in overall commodity pricing and people start feeling the pain, and there’s capital needs wherever that might mean, then you could start seeing additional packages on the larger side -- medium to larger side kind of coming to market. That being said, we’re still very busy, right, with 10 other kind of processes that we’re actively involved in.

Noel Parks

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

I mean, generally, if you don’t have to, you wouldn’t want to sell your assets at a lower oil price, right? You’d prefer to wait for a higher price because it imbued [ph] higher activity levels in that net present value calculation, as well as higher prices.

Adam Dirlam

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

That’s right.

Noel Parks

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

However, to Adam’s point, as cash flows decline and capital calls continue, the ground game tends to accelerate. And so, to Adam’s point, we think this will be an incredible opportunity over the next 18 months for us and pretty excited.

Adam Dirlam

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

I think the other evolution, just to build on it a little bit more, is one thing that we might see as things progresses more of these drilling joint venture types of transactions alongside operators that we’ve been successful with in the past.

Noel Parks

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

Good. Terrific, thanks. And just one more quick one. I’ve been a little bit struck by some of the gassy [ph] operators who’ve reported so far that they seem to me a little bit aggressive in assessing what they think mid-cycle pricing is right now. I think -- I can think of one that has been talking like $3.50 to $4 and with the presumption that LNG is increasingly offsetting seasonal factors. I sort of wondered what your thoughts are on that?

Chad Allen

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

Yes. I don’t know if we’re great prognosticators on price. I mean, I think the street is littered with bodies of people who tried to make it [indiscernible]. You know, I think -- I might have an opinion but I don’t think it’s worth very much. I think our view is, in general, we obviously will look at the prevailing strip and the pricing. We will look at highly stressed scenarios. And as a non-operator, we try to look at assets that are going to be resilient in any market. That’s why we own extremely low cost Marcellus and Utica [ph] assets that can work in pretty much any environment. And as a result, they have survived through good markets and bad. And I think that that’s where our focus will always remain.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Phillips Johnston with Capital One. Please go ahead.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst · Capital One. Please go ahead.

In a scenario where you take CapEx to the low end of the range for this year, what do you think maintenance CapEx would be for oil for 2026 and 2027 approximately? Nick O’Grady: It would be about the same, Phillips, call it $850 million roughly.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst · Capital One. Please go ahead.

Okay. Perfect. And then, Chad, I probably missed this in your prepared comments but, seems like… Nick O’Grady: I am so sorry. Just let me caveat that; that’s at today’s drilling cost. I should also add it, right? So that’s assuming that we don’t see a change in cost.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst · Capital One. Please go ahead.

Yes. Okay, makes sense. So, yes -- Chad, I probably missed this in the comments but you guys had a pretty nice beat on both production taxes and gas prices relative to your full year guidance. Are those expected to sort of trend back into the range for the year?

Chad Allen

Analyst · Capital One. Please go ahead.

They are. They are. I think it’s really -- the production tax is really a function of our production mix. But as our Permian grows, they have a bit higher production taxes; so expect that to kind of move back into our guided range.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] I will turn the call back over to Nick O’Grady, CEO, for closing remarks. Nick O’Grady: Thanks again for your interest in our company, and we look forward to talking to you in the coming weeks.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.