Clay Williams
Analyst · Barclays
Thank you, Pete. National Oilwell Varco posted second quarter 2010 net income attributable to the company of $401 million or $0.96 per diluted share, compared to $1.01 per share for the first quarter of 2010 and $0.53 per share in the second quarter of 2009, all on a GAAP basis. Included in the second quarter 2010 results were $4 million pretax or $0.01 per share after tax and transaction charges. Excluding these earnings were $0.97 per share. This compares to $1.10 per share in the first quarter of 2010 and $0.90 per share in the second quarter of 2009, excluding unusual transaction, restructuring impairment and discrete tax items from these periods too. As I do each quarter, I will focus my comparative remarks on results excluding these unusual items, which are reconciled in our press release to highlight changes in our underlying businesses. Overall, results were solid. Domestic rig activity was robust. Canada breakup was not too bad, and outlook for Canada is rising for the second half of the year. And a steady recovery has taken root in international markets, albeit a bit more subdued than the vigorous recovery we've seen on this continent. Second quarter gross orders of $689 million of capital equipment for our Rig Technology group marked the third quarter in a row, gross orders have exceeded $600 million mark. Revenues out of NOV's backlog of capital equipment were a little less than $1.3 billion comparable to shipment levels generated during the beginning of 2008. Second quarter operating profit of $494 million produced operating margins of 20.2%. Compared to the first quarter, flow-throughs were 59% on a 3% sequential revenue decline due to the underlying mix changes. Compared to the second quarter of 2009, the company generated $5 million higher operating profit, despite a $69 million year-over-year revenue decline, lifting operating margin 60 basis points year-over-year. This is due in large part to better year-over-year margins on work coming out of backlog due to continued excellent performance by the Rig Technology team. Rig activity in the United States grew 12% from the first quarter and 61% from the second quarter of last year, as the shale play Juggernaut continued to regain traction following the sharp downturns of last year. Our customers are expanding the application of shale play technology, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracture treatment to unconventional liquids plays in addition to unconventional gas. Horizontal drilling in the United States now handily exceeds its prior 2008 peak and has grown eight folds since 2004. Virtually all business lines within Petroleum Services & Supplies and Distribution segments benefited from the domestic rig count increase, both sequentially and year-over-year, with particularly ardent demand from products utilized in horizontal shale well drilling and completion operations, coiled tubing, multiplex pumps and flowline products, downhole drilling motors and tools and premium drill pipe. The Petroleum Services & Supplies segment saw U.S. revenues increased 16% sequentially. Distribution domestic results were up 24% sequentially. Similarly, within Rig Technology, demand for pressure pumping equipment and coiled tubing unit surged, with significant orders placed by many North American pressure pumpers. And interest in new land rig technologies from top drives to complete fit-for-purpose rigs remain resolute. United States, actually North America, because I have to include Canada, too, has become one massive laboratory for the application of shale and unconventional reservoir technologies pioneered by the industry throughout the past decade. As these technologies have matured, the scientists and land men and entrepreneurs that comprise the oil and gas industry have become increasingly energetic in their quest for the next promising shale play opportunity, and are pressed with technology into oil-productive regions in addition to gas. The progeny of the Barnett Shale is far more than gas and dollars and profit. It has fathered the Woodford, the Fayetteville, the Haynesville, the Montney, the Marcellus, the Horn River, the Bakken and the Eagle Ford. And stay tuned, because it's not done yet. The Utica, the New Brunswick, the Cardium, the Green River, with Niobrara, the Collingwood and the Monterey, along with others, have been placed in the Petri dish, and all hole promised to contribute in a safe, environmentally sound and profitable way to the energy needs of this continent through the 21st century. And that's just here. 2010 also marked the export of this technology to Asia, the Middle East, and most significantly, Europe, where half dozen major shale plays are also under serious study. We don't know which plays will win this race, but we are confident that all of the racers will need lots of drill pipe, drill bits, drill motors, pumps, fluids, coil tubing picks and shovels. And supplying the picks and shovels and other oilfield hardware they need is NOV's specialty. During the second quarter, Petroleum Services & Supplies witnessed stronger demand in international markets as well, up about 16% sequentially. While Distribution's International business was up more modestly. Both segments posted sequential declines in Canada as expected, due to the seasonal breakup in road bans there that led to a 65% sequential decline in the rig count. Both Petroleum Services & Supplies and Distribution Services posted higher revenues and margins, both sequentially and year-over-year for the second quarter of 2010. We believe that this improvement signals that the results of mid-2009, Q3 specifically, will prove to have been the bottom of the recent sharp downturn. In the short run, the moratorium on deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico will generate some headwinds to the second half of 2010. But we are nevertheless hopeful that these segments will continue to grow with rig activity as the world emerges from the great recession of 2008 and 2009. Certainly, oil price is trading with a seven handle, stable if not heroic gas prices, and gradually improving access to credit should continue to fuel recovery, at least in the oil and gas sector. The Rig Technology group has done a terrific job bridging NOV through this difficult period. We entered the downturn with record backlogs of long-term offshore rig construction projects, which enabled NOV to largely sustain earnings for 2009. Our portfolio businesses and the financial construct date simplifier are working as planned. We participate in a highly cyclical space, and our strong balance sheet and access to credit enable us to seize opportunities, both organic and transactional, as they present themselves, and for example, enabled us to assemble a leading drilling fluids business, expand our foreign assembly capabilities near our shipyard customers, grow our mission flowline products and enter into new rig equipment inspection services during the downturn of 2009. Including the pro forma results for Grant Prideco and excluding transaction and restructuring and other unusual charges, the company's quarterly operating profit has exceeded the $0.5 billion in every one of the last 14 quarters, even though the average quarterly worldwide rig count has exhibited extreme volatility through this period, ranking from 2,000 rigs to over 3,500 rigs during a period in which National Oilwell Varco generated over $5 billion of cash. Our strategic effort to enhance our offering for FPSOs is underway and we hope to get a transaction closed soon in this space, provided we can get the numbers right. Maintaining financial discipline is paramount to the successful execution of our strategies. Our playbook here is simple and similar to what we've accomplished in the drilling rig space: Develop a package of products to offer through our well-honed manufacturing assembly, installation and commissioning operations that offer superior value and low risk to an area that we see as high growth in the years to come. This takes time and patience and fortitude, but should ultimately create value for our shareholders. Specifically, we'd like to boost our offering into FPSOs to exceed $100 million per package, up from about $25 million currently. The credit market crisis significantly impacted our orders for Rig Technology for the past several quarters. Building a deepwater rig spans four years and costs several hundred million dollars. So the availability of financing looms large in the decision calculus of most of our customers. Nevertheless, we are seeing improvements, having landed one drilling equipment package for a Brazilian floater during the second quarter. Also, you may have heard form the shipyards in Asia that we signed two more floaters for Brazil just a few weeks ago. These two should flow into our backlog during the third quarter, pending receipt of our customers' down payment which we expect to receive next week. We are pleased to see these long-awaited projects achieve financing after a two-year effort, and finally start to cut iron. Gross orders for the second quarter were $689 million, hopefully signaling that, again, mid-2009 marked the low point for orders during the downturn. Orders for pressure pumping and coil tubing equipment were particularly strong in the second quarter, closely followed by land rigs, both domestic and international, lifting and handling equipment, top drives and mobile rigs. Like Q1, this represents a broad cross-section of our product offering and reflects consumption of existing equipment through day-to-day operations, and a steady workmanlike conversion to better technologies as driller economics permit. As an example, the rising day rates for new AC electronically controlled rigs illustrate the superiority of this equipment, which stands in sharp contrast to the market for 30-year-old rigs that still comprise a majority of the fleet. Our backlog of capital equipment for Rig Technology stands at $4,856,000,000 as of June 30, 2010, which is down 11% from the prior quarter. Orders were adjusted for the cancellations of two small rigs in the Middle East and a handful of negative change orders totaling $29 million, resulting in net order additions of $660 million. We consider $188 million to be at risk of cancellation. As expected, revenue out of backlog declined about $254 million and totaled $1,251,000,000 during the second quarter, reflecting the completion of numerous projects won in the 2007-2008 time frame. Approximately 81% of the backlog is offshore projects and 19% land, reflecting a 31% sequential increase in our land rig backlog from the first quarter. 86% of the backlog is for international markets and 14% is for the U.S. Execution remains superb. We delivered two drill ships and two semi-submersibles during the second quarter, bringing our total to 84 offshore rigs built during the last cycle, with essentially all on time and on budget. Installation and commissioning activities remain brisk, with nearly 700 personnel at work on additional rigs. Margin performance on these projects once again exceeded our expectations, owing to close attention to execution, favorable cost variances and FX movements, and above all, experience. Like many of you, we've been watching Brazil with rapt attention. And so far, so good. After an extended prelude, Petrobras is now in receipt of tenders for 28 deepwater floating rigs from several local shipyards and a handful of mostly local drilling contractors. The technical proposals within these bids have been opened, and the commercial proposals within these bids are to be opened soon. These sophisticated deepwater rigs are required to be constructed in Brazil and are drilling equipment packages in which National Oilwell Varco has a very high level of interest, are required to contain a minimum level of local Brazilian content, which rises from 20% for the first few to 50% for the last rigs. Deliveries of these rigs are scheduled between 2014 and 2017. NOV has devoted considerable resources to developing our plan to achieve the local content requirements within this time frame, and we are confident that we can comply. To this end, we're expanding operations and are underway adding three new facilities in-country to service this growing market. It will be challenging, but we are up to the task. Petrobras has signaled that they intend to own a controlling interest in some, perhaps most of these rigs, and intend to contract others to be built and owned by drilling contractors. We all await their decision on a number of rigs in each category and the ultimate winners of the tender process, but NOV has pursued these aggressively and we like our odds. NOV is well known in Brazil, and we are committed to meeting the needs of this market. In terms of timing, we could begin to land orders from this tender process late this year, but the first quarter 2011 is probably more likely, and as always, the process could be subject to further delays. Nevertheless, we remain convinced the Petrobras is committed to building these rigs in-country, using it own needs for rigs to bootstrap the company into becoming a major supplier of deepwater rigs for years to come, much like Norway used its North Sea discoveries of the 1970s to bootstrap itself into becoming a major oilfield services participant. The moratorium on deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico following the Macondo blowout, had minimal impact on our financial results in the second quarter. We shut down 19 Solids Control and Waste Management jobs on affected rigs, but we were able to largely redeploy these field crews into new areas in the Rockies and the Marcellus. Distribution Services saw second quarter sales rise as our stores scramble to outfit the massive response effort with basic supplies. The Rig Technology group saw modestly lower purchases of spares and consumables among the affected rigs, but many of the rigs appear to be moving toward using this time to catch up on upgrade and maintenance activities, so we are likely to see higher sales in spares in the coming months. However, we expect to see a larger negative impact overall across all three segments in the second half of the year, as customers struggle through tougher permitting requirements, even in shallow water, and are generally pausing to see the ultimate resolution of new pressure control requirements. Consequently, some specific purchases such as drill pipe and conductor pipe connections have been deferred, pending the outcome of the pause, which could cause NOV $0.01 or $0.02, on a consolidated basis, over each of the next two quarters. Additionally, a number of deepwater rig construction projects from the Arctic and elsewhere, which we believe we're close to signing, have been suspended pending the resolution of the moratorium. However, we have also seen a couple of drilling contractors launch exploratory studies of new rig projects, soliciting budgetary quotes from shipyards for new deepwater rig build projects in recent weeks. These are a long way from becoming firm orders for NOV, but we are pleased to see some rekindled interest. We believe the roughly 25% decline in the all-in construction costs for deepwater rigs, mostly due to some very hungry shipyards along with some FX help, is catalyzing this interest among opportunistic potential buyers. With the tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico leading to new blowout for vendor regulations and specifications from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, customer inquiries are trending significantly higher and orders for pressure control components, spares, repair and services rose during the second quarter. Accordingly, we have ordered a substantial quantity of long lead time BOP body forgings to be in a position to quickly supply replacements for those which cannot be recertified, additional cavities to enhance existing BOP stacks, as well as for additional capital spares. One customer has already asked for enhancements to a block for vendor stack previous law and order for a new offshore rig being fabricated in Asia to be in a position to meet or exceed the expected new regulatory requirements. We're also fast-tracking the creation of a new expanded research and development center for testing new pressure control technology near our bloffervener [ph] plant in Houston. Prior to the accident, we were at work on new low-force shear capabilities designed to expand the size and range of drill pipe and other tubulars, which can be sheared by rams, and have been awarded a patent on low-force shear blade design with a few more applications in the works. Our goal is to get a product to market quickly that can shear larger higher-strength drill pipe bodies and even tool joints. Many lives along the Gulf Coast have been touched by the terrible tragedy that occurred on April 20, with the loss of the Deepwater Horizon. And our condolences go out to the families who have lost 11 loved ones. Like everyone in this industry, we are committed to cleaning up the mess and securing the well. Several NOV businesses have been engaged in the installation of the cap, the rapid execution of the relief wells and the cleanup efforts on the beach. We understand our imperative to operate safely and in an environmentally responsible way. This has been an extraordinary accident and a somber reminder of the responsibilities all of us in the oil and gas industry share. Now let me turn to our segment operating results. The Distribution Services segment generated revenues of $366 million during the second quarter of 2010, up 9% from the first quarter of 2010 and up 20% from the second quarter of 2009. Second quarter operating profit was $13 million or 3.6% of sales, up 30 basis points from both the first quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2009. Operating leverage or flow-through was 6% sequentially and 5% year-over-year. The U.S. led the way, posting 24% higher sequential revenues through a combination of higher sales into the shale plays, shale play drilling and completion operations, higher sales into new domestic land rigs being outfit for service and higher sales into the Gulf Coast region to support cleanup efforts, leading to solid double-digit incremental growth sequentially and year-over-year. Canada declined seasonally at high decrementals, owing to lower volumes and a litigation accrual. International revenues improved slightly, but margins fell due to mix and higher scrap expense. We expect the Distribution Services segment to generate good sequential growth in the third quarter, provided the U.S. rig count stays up, held by seasonal turnaround in Canada and certain international projects we see in the works. Margins are expected to continue to improve at a steady rate. The Petroleum Services & Supplies segment generated total sales of $1 billion in the second quarter of 2010, up $110 million or 12% from the first quarter of 2010, and up $120 million or 13% from the second quarter of 2009. Operating profit was $138 million or 13.4% of sales, up about 120 basis points from the first quarter on a $25 million sequential operating profit increase. Sequential operating leverage or flow-through was 23% sequentially and 35% year-over-year. Most businesses posted solid gains on sequentially higher levels of drilling activity in the U.S. and overseas. Sales of composite pipe surged on large project orders into the chemical and industrial space in the U.S. and large project in the Eastern Hemisphere. Coiled Tubing sales through coil tubing, Tuboscope Coating & Inspection Services and NOV Wellsite Services also posted strong double-digit sequential increases on higher domestic activity. Mission sales of Drilling Expendables and Multiplex Pumps and ACCEL system sales of large diameter connectors also posted increases, while IntelliServ Downhole Tools posted lower sequential results, partly due to Canadian breakup. Drill Pipe sales jumped 25% sequentially, with modestly improved margins, as more land contractors and rental tool companies placed orders for premium pipe for shale plays. While premium XT connections and higher volumes and commensurate higher absorptions helped profitability, the smaller-sized, generally about 4 inch, and higher mix of alliance customers, alliance being the code word for discounted, led to lower revenue per foot and limited operating leverage on the revenue increases. We also sold more drill pipe into the domestic Chinese market from our plants in China, which was diluted to the mix in margins. Orders for the quarter increased 11% sequentially. Overall, the sequential leverage for Petroleum Services & Supplies of 23% fell below the historical average for the group of around 30% through the cycle, but that is typical for the group during the second quarter due to Canada, where most products and services declined at high decrementals, often more than 50%. Lower leverage on drill pipe reflecting the mix shift also contributed to the softer incrementals. Overall, pricing has stabilized for most, but not all products, and certain products are just starting to win back pricing increases in North America. International pricing is also mixed and has historically demonstrated more inertia and less volatility both up and down. Looking into the third quarter of 2010, we expect revenues and margins to remain roughly flat with the second quarter, as seasonal recovery in Canada offsets lower revenues in the Gulf of Mexico related to the moratorium and lower revenues on some specific international projects. The Rig Technology segment generated revenues of $1.7 billion in the second quarter, down $214 million or 11% sequentially, and down $245 million or 13% compared to the second quarter of 2009. Operating profit was $509 million, yielding operating margins for the group of 30.4%. Decremental leverage or flow-through was 34% from the first quarter to the second, and 11% from the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of 2010. Project margins remained very strong, despite the 17% sequential decline in revenue out of backlog, as the group continued to execute new rig fabrication projects exceptionally well. Compared to the first quarter, non-backlog revenue increased $40 million or 10%, led by higher parts, sales, rental revenues and modestly higher small capital equipment sales, which fall below our $250,000 backlog threshold. Higher Spare Parts sales began to flow-through late in the quarter as our aftermarket repair centers filled up with equipment coming in from the idle Gulf of Mexico rigs, many of whom are using this time to overhaul and upgrade components with particular emphasis on pressure control equipment. Instrumentation Monitoring and Optimization posted sequentially improved revenues on higher U.S. leasing and instrumentation sales overseas. Well Intervention and Stimulation equipment revenues were down in the second quarter following large deliveries in the first quarter, but are expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year, owing to strong order intake from North America and Chinese pressure pumpers which more than doubled Q2 shipments. Generally, the shift toward higher diameter, thicker wall coil tubing, typically 2 inch or 2 3/8 inch, for shale plays is spurring demand for new equipment. Increase for new land rigs have remained brisk. Operators of overland fleets in North America are upgrading, ordering top drives for their fleets and/or complete new AC rigs outright. The second quarter marked an important milestone, NOV shipment of its 1,000th model TDS-11 Top Drive. Interest in new AC technology land rigs in the Middle East and certain Latin American markets remained steady. Iraq in particular, will need a number of new land rigs to execute its ambitious drilling plans for that country. Orders for lifting and mooring equipment picked up in the second quarter, partially related to FPSOs and construction vessel demand and order also improved for mobile rigs, both domestic and international customers. Approximately $2.4 billion of the $4.9 billion in backlog on the books as of June 30, 2010, is scheduled to flow out in revenue through the remainder of 2010, with $2 billion scheduled for 2011 and the balance thereafter. Looking into the third quarter of 2010, we expect Rig Technology revenues to remain roughly flat with the second quarter and expect margins to decline into the mid to high 20% range, owing to a lower mix of higher margin offshore rig fabrication revenue. Turning to National Oilwell Varco's consolidated second quarter income statement, SG&A increased $13 million sequentially to $338 million or 11.5% of annualized sales due to higher outside consulting expenses related to tax planning, along with higher incentive compensation accruals. Equity income in our Voest-Alpine joint venture was $8 million, up from the first quarter on sharply higher OCTG sales and a strong dollar. Other expense was $3 million related to minor foreign currency exchange rate losses and bank charges. The tax rate for the second quarter was 31.8%, about what we expect for the remainder of the year. Unallocated expenses and eliminations on our supplemental schedule totaled $66 million in the second quarter, up $9 million sequentially on higher intercompany profit eliminations between segments. Depreciation and amortization declined $3 million from the first quarter to the second, and CapEx increased $16 million sequentially to $47 million, a little more than a third of DD&A. We expect CapEx for the full year to be below $300 million. EBITDA excluding transaction, restructuring and devaluation charges was $728 million in the second quarter, down 9% sequentially and up 6% year-over-year. National Oilwell Varco's June 30, 2010 balance sheet employed working capital, excluding cash and debt of $3.6 billion, up $204 million, or 6% sequentially due primarily to the decrease in billings and excess of cost and increase in accounts receivable. This increased working capital to about 30% of annualized revenues this quarter. During the second quarter, cash flow from operations was $187 million, cash spent on four small acquisitions totaled $16 million, and our ending cash balance was $2.7 billion. Now let me turn it back to Pete.