Earnings Labs

NOV Inc. (NOV)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 28, 2015

$20.62

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Clay Williams

Management

Ladies and gentleman, apologies, we had some technical issues here on our end. We do plan to go full hour. So we are going to start over again from the beginning. I understand that some of you couldn’t hear our opening comments. And so, Loren, I am going to hand it back to you to start all over.

Loren Singletary

Management

Yes, and thank you very much, Clay. And what we want to do is before we begin this discussion of National Oilwell Varco’s financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2015. Please note that some of the statements we make during this call may contain forecasts, projections and estimates, including but not limited to comments about our outlook for the company’s business. These are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities laws based on limited information as of today, which is subject to change. They are subject to risk and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. No one should assume that these forward-looking statements remain valid later in the quarter or later in the year. I refer you to the latest Forms 10-K and 10-Q National Oilwell Varco has on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of the major risk factors affecting our business. Further information regarding these, as well as supplemental, financial and operating information, may be found within our press release, on our website at www.nov.com, or in our filings with the SEC. Later on this call, we will answer your questions, which we ask you to limit to two in order to permit more participation. Now, let me turn it over to Clay.

Clay Williams

Management

Thank you, Loren. And welcome, everyone, to version 2.0 of National Oilwell Varco’s first quarter 2015 earnings conference call. This morning we announced that the company earned $0.76 per fully diluted share in its first quarter ended March 31, 2015, excluding charges related to a voluntary retirement program, the write-down of Venezuela assets, and a discrete non-recurring foreign tax exposure, fully diluted earnings per share were $1.14, down 33%, sequentially, down 12% year-over-year excluding other items from all quarters. Revenues were $4.8 billion in the first quarter of 2015, down 16% sequentially, and down 1% year-over-year. Consolidated operating profit excluding other items was $692 million or 14.4% of sales in the first quarter. Decremental operating leverage was 37% sequentially. First quarter EBIDA excluding charges was $837 million or 17.4% of sales. This compares to $1.2 billion in the prior quarter and $1 billion in the quarter of last year, excluding other items from all periods. Business in the first quarter of 2015 declined significantly in response to lower oil prices. We entered 2015 with oil prices half of what they were just a few short months. Now, all commodity prices signal producers to add or diminish supply, and oil is no exception. So in the first quarter with global supplies outpacing global demand by 1.5 million barrels per day, the oil price signal rolled through our industry like thunder and thunderstruck participants responded vigorously. Spending is falling in almost all regions, driving the worldwide rig-count down by a third since September. The rate of decline of active rigs, most acute across North America is breathtaking and unequaled in prior downturns. NOV saw activities and orders slow in just about all areas of our business and all of our units are experiencing pricing pressure. Most of us in oil and gas…

Loren Singletary

Management

Thank you, Clay. National Oil Varco Rig Systems generated revenues of $2.5 billion, down 1% sequentially, but up 12% compared to the first quarter of 2014, as we continued to execute on our backlog completing 14 offshore drilling equipment packages in the quarter. Operating profit for the segment was $488 million, yielding an operating margins of 19.3%, down 70 basis points, both sequentially and year-over-year. EBITDA was $511 million, or 20.3% of sales. Q4 to Q1 offshore revenues, which represent 75% of the segment total declined slightly and land revenues, which represent 25% of the segment total remained flat. Segment margins fell slightly as bad debt accruals more than offset cost reduction efforts in the quarter. Now, let’s discuss capital equipment orders and resulting backlog for National Oil Varco’s Rig Systems. In the first quarter, we received $263 million in new orders and recognized $2.25 billion of revenue out of backlog and an FX adjustment of $99 million, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.11 times and a quarter-ending backlog of $10.4 billion, down 17% sequentially. As Clay mentioned earlier, orders were half of what they were in Q4, and Q1 was one of the first quarters in recent history, where land bookings outweighed offshore bookings. Of the total $10.4 billion in backlog, approximately 91% is offshore and 92% is destined for international markets. As we move into the second quarter of 2015, Clay noted that NOV Rig Systems revenues will decline as much as 30%. We expect revenue out of backlog to slow to the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion from Q1’s $2.25 billion, as we ship fewer land rigs and see the impact of accommodating certain customer-requested delivery modifications for offshore newbuilds. We believe margins will decline into the mid-teens percentage from 19.3% in the first quarter.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions] And from Raymond James we have Marshall Adkins online. Please go ahead.

Marshall Adkins

Analyst

Good morning, guys. As usual, a very, very thorough overview. We appreciate that. I don’t have a lot of real specific ones. I want to ask just kind of a bigger picture broader question, Clay. The industry obviously has changed dramatically in the last few years. We’re starting to see dollars flow more into the U.S. versus offshore, given the improving economics here. How do you see NOV evolving over the next five years? I know that’s kind of a big picture question, but I just want to get a sense of how you adjust to the changing environment from one where you’ve dominated offshore rigs and where improving your offshore completion stuff to one where maybe more dollars are spent in the U.S.?

Clay Williams

Management

Yes. Great question, Marshall, and something we’re obviously continuing to think about here. We benefited greatly from a lot of offshore rig building through the last decade, and have been a big participant in that. And we’ve also done a lot - we’ve been very transactional. We’ve invested a lot of M&A capital through the last decade. When we look back to the past 10 years, 97% of our M&A capital have gone into our other three segments, really away from the rig-building space, building out really interesting positions, trying to position us for option value across multiple trends underway. So when we look at, for instance, a shale well drilling operation, what you see out there is a Tier 1 rig, premium drill pipe, downhole tools, mud motors. You see on the completion side coil tubing units, in-coil tubing, frac spreads, sanders, mixing units, basically all of the picks and shovels. All of the hardware that go into the unconventional shale trend, NOV is global-leading provider of. We look across the oilfield and we see opportunities in waste management. And so things like thermal absorption technology to clean up drill cuttings. Water management opportunities, we’ve got some great technologies in around osmosis clean up and desalinization of water. De-oiling of water with our WaterWolf products. So we’re doing more on the production side. So this has been - we’ve had a steady application of capital into other trends, recognizing that this industry always changes. And over the past few years, of course, the big change were the shales have emerged as a much lower marginal cost source of oil and the deepwater has some challenges. But I also know from cycle to cycle, marginal costs sort of rearrange themselves. There’s a lot of smart people in this industry focused…

Marshall Adkins

Analyst

So obviously you’ve had this great transformation. You have an incredibly strong balance sheet. And over the historical cycles, you always end up being better. Does that mean we transform this balance sheet into more M&A, particularly in those three other parts of the business you built up the last five years?

Clay Williams

Management

Yes, we are looking hard at what’s next for NOV, and I think we are very, very good at deploying capital into acquisition opportunities and then integrating those and maximizing returns on those opportunities. And so we are engaged in lots of conversations out there. There’s a big merger you may have heard about, we’re really interested in seeing what comes out of that. So all these downturns provide pretty extraordinary opportunities to deploy capital to kind of reposition ourselves for the next upturn, and so that’s what we’re looking to do. I’m actually pretty excited about that. We’re doing the painful things, reducing costs as required, but the more fun aspects to think about through the downturn, what do we look like we come out? And our plan is to be stronger and better and to maximize opportunities in the downturn.

Marshall Adkins

Analyst

Great works, guys. Thanks.

Clay Williams

Management

Thank you, Marshall.

Operator

Operator

From RBC, we have Kurt Hallead in the line. Please go ahead.

Kurt Hallead

Analyst

Hey, good morning.

Clay Williams

Management

Good morning.

Loren Singletary

Management

Hey, Kurt.

Kurt Hallead

Analyst

So you guys again, I echo Marshall’s about providing excellent information. Appreciate all that info. At your Analyst Day back in November, you guys outlined a very long-term outlook, predicated some of it, or at least based some of it on the Exxon’s forty-year outlook, or so on and so forth. I don’t imagine in six months’ time that really changes a 40-year outlook. But given the dynamics in the offshore drilling business, how do you assess the prospective structural decline in this cycle versus any other offshore drilling cycle that you may have been a part of, Clay or Loren, however you want - may address that.

Clay Williams

Management

Yes, we talked very explicitly at our Analyst Day about basing our strategic plans on a generational look at oil and gas supply, which the ExxonMobil Outlook 2040 is. And certainly - but the other thing we highlighted at that conference, if you remember, Kurt, is the fact that we go through cyclical downturns. So this is not - where we are today is not a surprise to us. I think the challenge for management is to make sure we’re looking through this and continuing to work on a long-term strategic plans and execute our long-term vision, which is still very, very exciting. With regards to the offshore, like I mentioned earlier, all sources of crude are continually working on reducing their marginal cost, to slide down that marginal cost curve and not be the last barrel produced in terms of economic efficiency. And the offshore is absolutely no exception. And so what’s encouraging about what we see today is that at $100 a barrel, there’s not as much incentive to do things differently. When the oil price drop to $50 a barrel and the IOC’s have found, for instance, 5 billion barrels in the lower tertiary in the Gulf of Mexico, there’s a strong incentive to figure out. They know the resource base is there, how do we figure out how to produce that at lower cost? And they have the extra tailwind of drilling process deflation. Pricing is dropping for services on drilling those wells on the rigs required, the dayrates around the rigs required to drill those wells. And so it’s a pretty good backdrop to do things differently. And there’s a lot of active and constructive participation from our customers around that. We will bring the marginal costs down on subsea barrels.

Loren Singletary

Management

Yes, I might add, Kurt, that even in the darkest days of the 1980s, we never went a year when we didn’t sell an offshore rig, whether it was a jack-up or a floating rig of some sort. And I think that with the retirements and the scrapping of offshore rigs today at new high levels, I think that we’ll get a balance of offshore floating rigs sooner than later. And so we’re probably in a new paradigm, really, for the offshore market. But the next couple of quarters, maybe the next year or so, are going to be pretty skinny. But we will still be selling a few rigs in the next year.

Clay Williams

Management

That’s a great point. And the rigs that are working out there are going to need components for replacement and they’re going to need components for upgrade. And that’s kind of the base business we’ve survived on in the 1980s and 1990s.

Kurt Hallead

Analyst

Okay, great. And then maybe a quick follow-up here is, when you talk about a number of different M&A transactions and perspective businesses that may have to be sold, or at least ones that Halliburton already put on the market, you see this as a potential transformative opportunity for NOV? I know you guys have typically not wanted to be involved in the services element of things. Are you guys pretty much going to remain the equipment provider of choice? How are you assessing the outlook here?

Clay Williams

Management

We’re all about deploying capital into interesting situations to enhance competitive advantage and enhance our franchise. And so we tend to look at all opportunities continuously and reassess what we are, where we’re going continuously. So I’ll leave it that way. But this - we’re always looking for opportunities to deploy capital for the benefit of our shareholders.

Kurt Hallead

Analyst

Great. Hey, thanks guys. Appreciate it.

Clay Williams

Management

Thank you, Kurt.

Operator

Operator

From Simmons & Company, we have Bill Herbert online. Please go ahead.

Bill Herbert

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Actually a question along the same lines, and I’m going to widen it a little bit here. So a couple of recurring queries, and sort of a subtext of this call is the prospects for transformation. And so I guess my question is similar to what was just expressed. The circumference of plausible industrial fit, has it widened? And same question with regard to scale in terms of the size of the deal that you’re willing to do and the price that you’re willing to pay for it?

Clay Williams

Management

Not much of which I can answer, or will answer very quantitatively. We maximize returns by trying to minimize capital going into these opportunities. We are a veteran of many, many, many transactions. We’ve done this many times before and built up global-leading franchises around the world, across pretty much all that we do. We’re number one in just about everything that we do. And that’s very central to our strategy. And so in terms of what comes available, not just out of the big red/blue merger we’ve all been talking about, but more broadly, what’s out there, what’s possible. We’re always looking at opportunities. But the cornerstone of that effort really resides in market leadership. We’ve been very clear, we think market leadership carries demonstrable competitive advantage in this space. We think we reduce risk for our customers by being market leader. We think scale gets us up learning curves faster, it support broader global networks to deliver products and services and equipment. Let’s us leverage R&D efforts and introduce new products more quickly. For lots of reasons market leadership carries lower risk and higher returns. And so that’s pretty central to what we do when we evaluate opportunities to deploy capital, Bill.

Bill Herbert

Analyst

And a question with regard to theory versus practice. I mean, clearly right deal/right scale/right size you’ll do it. I’m just curious as to practically speaking, given the catharsis of the last six months, has the possible opportunity set ex-Halliburton increased, or do we need additional duration to this downturn in order to increase the number of possibilities and also narrow the bid/ask spread?

Clay Williams

Management

Yes, that’s the key thing, what you said last. We need sellers to reset expectations. And so we’re helping them do that.

Bill Herbert

Analyst

Okay. Thanks very much, guys.

Clay Williams

Management

Thanks, Bill.

Operator

Operator

From FBR Capital Markets, we have Tom Curran on the line, please go ahead.

Thomas Curran

Analyst

Good morning, guys.

Clay Williams

Management

Good morning.

Loren Singletary

Management

Good morning.

Thomas Curran

Analyst

So just sticking with Bill’s topic there and delving a bit deeper into the line of questioning. Clay, perhaps you give us an update on how the current pipeline of prospects compares in North America versus internationally? And certain focal technologies or niches within the divisions where you ideally would make a move?

Clay Williams

Management

I’m going to be a little cryptic around that because I don’t really want tell my competitors my playbook. But what I would say is again, we’re focused on big picture trends in the industry, market leadership and competitive advantage, and looking to deploy capital into those areas more broadly. I will tell you specifically where we’ve been deploying capital the last couple of years has really enhanced our aftermarket business in particular around rig. The rising installed base of NOV equipment and technology out there is pretty transparent to you and everybody. And so what we see are a lot more NOV rigs running and a lot more customers in need of close OEM support. And what we find is that these great little businesses that we can acquire. In fact, two weeks ago I was touring one that we bought in West Africa, for instance, South Africa. It’s been a great addition and great reputation, and what we’ve been able to bring to that business is kind of the global reach and scale. And so that’s been a great help for our customers in that region. But around the world, all of our customers want us to be closer to the coal face, closer to their rigs for aftermarket support. So that’s an interesting area, and that’s part of the reason at our Analyst Day we said, growth prospects for rig aftermarket long-term are terrific, and we’re putting capital behind that. In other businesses, again we have got opportunities to grow those, expand their footprint and so kind of a similar pattern.

Thomas Curran

Analyst

And should we think of you adhering to the same reluctance you exhibited thus far within Wellbore Technologies about pushing any further into new services that would lead you to compete directly with some of your oilfield service customers?

Clay Williams

Management

We’re always kind of reevaluating our business model, and does it make sense? And frankly, there’s already some level of competition within that business. And that’s very common across oilfield services. It’s not uncommon for competitors to sell to each other in one product line and compete on another. And so - but we think about that very closely. We don’t want to unnecessarily end up in a competitive conflict situation that really takes a toll on our P&L. So, I’ll leave it there.

Thomas Curran

Analyst

Thanks. I’ll turn it back.

Clay Williams

Management

Thanks, Tom.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now turn it back to Clay Williams for closing remarks.

Clay Williams

Management

Thanks, Brandon. I appreciate everyone’s patience this morning and apologies for the technical difficulties that we started off with. I really also want to thank our terrific employees for the hard work that they all put in here every day, and although we have a pretty challenging road ahead, we’re adapting quickly. We have lots of opportunities emerging to launch new products and to acquire some pretty interesting businesses, and really position ourselves for the upturn. So we’re doing what we got to do in the short term, looking through that for opportunities in the long term. And I know we will emerge better and stronger. And again, thank you all for joining us, we look forward to updating you in July.