Earnings Labs

NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 4, 2015

$151.32

-2.25%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-3.55%

1 Week

-7.46%

1 Month

-32.17%

vs S&P

-31.22%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the NRG Energy Incorporated Q3 2015 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference Mr. Chad Plotkin, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please begin.

Chad S. Plotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Liz. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's third quarter 2015 earnings call. This morning's call is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located on the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com under Presentations & Webcasts. Because this call will be limited to one hour, we ask that you limit yourself to only one question with one follow-up. As this is the earnings call for NRG Energy, any statements made on this call that may pertain to NRG Yield will be provided from NRG's perspective. Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. We urge everyone to review the Safe Harbor statement provided in today's presentation as well as the risk factors contained in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law. During this morning's call, we will also refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures of the company's operating and financial results. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's press release and this presentation. And with that, I will turn the call over to David Crane, NRG's President and Chief Executive Officer. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Chad, and good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining us on this, our third quarter call. Today joining me are Mauricio Gutierrez, the company's Chief Operating Officer, and Kirk Andrews, the company's Chief Financial Officer, and both of them will be participating in the presentation.…

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi, good morning. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Stephen. Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks for the enhanced disclosure, it's extremely helpful, very well done. Just on, hit on the couple topics on, first on just coal supply, Just given the very low commodity environment we're in, very low gas and power prices, could you talk a little bit further to just what you're seeing in terms of potential ability, whether it'd be on transport or the commodity itself – what are the dynamics, in terms of being able to continue to improve your position in terms of your coal costs? David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Stephen, you want to tell us the two questions, so – and then we'll answer them. So we're tipped off and we can prepare an answer to the second? Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Sure thing. My other question is just on competitive dynamics in retail. And I was curious whether you're seeing overall any competitive dynamic changes in that business, and then more specifically whether you see a potential for some of your retail competitors to try to get into solar, as you've been doing? David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Into solar, not into -- not IPPs getting into retail, but you're interested in ... Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: In retailer to solar. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: That's right. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, let me start by answering the last part of that question, and then Chris Moser's going to answer your coal question, and Elizabeth, as soon as Chris finishes, you answer the question about competitive dynamics in retail. But I would say, Stephen, given the market's reception to us getting into distributor – so I don't think that's going to encourage other IPPs to get into that area. But, so – but in terms of the other IPPs getting into retail, which is something that I've sort of been expecting for a long time, maybe Elizabeth can talk about that in terms of the context of competitive dynamics. But – but Chris, why don't you start with talking about the coal dynamics, and Elizabeth, you take over from Chris.

Christopher S. Moser - Senior Vice President-Commercial Operations

Management

Sure. I would characterize it like this, Stephen. I think we're working with our whole coal supply chain and the partners in it to make sure we've got reliable and competitively priced fuel. There's really two pieces to that. There's the rail piece and then the commodity piece. I mean on the commodity side, if you've been watching over the past couple of weeks, we've seen a pretty decent jog down in the prices, specifically PRB, but NAZ (40:36) as well, and so that will obviously help us next year. And then on the transportation side, without getting into too much specifics, I would say that our transportation partners have been good partners with us and want to make sure that the coal continues to flow. So, I think that's how I would answer that. Elizabeth Killinger - SVP & President, NRG Retail, NRG Energy, Inc.: And Stephen, regarding the competitive dynamics in the retail business, I think we continue to see intense competitive markets with – we're 50 players in Texas, and it varies by market in the East, but anywhere from kind of 15 to 30-something competitors. So, lots of competitive activity. We are seeing competitors extend their product offerings to include more products than simply retail electricity, and that takes the form of energy management solutions, natural gas, some home-control type features; as you noticed, home solar, and otherwise. So, we expect that to continue, which is why we continue to lead the market in evaluating what consumers want, and making sure we're delivering the best of it to them. Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks very much – sorry, David. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, Steve, I just, I guess my reaction on your people going into solar, response a little flippant about IPPs; what I think – and look, no one can predict the future, but I think the period ahead in home solar is going to be focused on consolidation around what I think is going to emerge as the four main players, the Solar Cities, the Vivints, the Sunruns, and ourselves. I don't expect another IPP to come into that space anytime soon, but I would actually be surprised, since – and, I'm – I subscribe to the view that home solar is a mortal threat to the utility business model. I would be surprised if, within the next 18 to 24 months, some big utility doesn't try and buy their way into this space, but that's just my speculation. Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open. Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hey, good morning, guys. Just on that update to the balance sheet, what target metrics do you guys want to get to at the corporate NRG balance sheet perspective, and of the $1.6 billion that you are expecting between now and the end of the next year for debt reduction? Is that all NRG-specific debt, or is that going to include some GenOn and some other pieces in that number? Kirkland B. Andrews - Chief Financial Officer, Director & Executive VP: Sure, Dan. It's Kirk. I'll take that in reverse order. The $1.6 billion is really a consolidated look at uplift in capital for allocation. As you know, in particular, $500 million of that is what is part of the NRG Reset in asset sales, and depending on the mix of those asset sales – some of which we expect to be at the GenOn level, because we're focused on the Northeast – that, more than anything else, would govern the proportion of the allocation of capital toward debt reduction at GenOn versus NRG. As to the targeted metric, we continue to target, as I'd said, 4.25 times corporate debt to corporate EBITDA. We also focused on FFO to debt, keeping that number below the – at or below the high-teens level. And I'd say that the tertiary component of that is, we look to stay around 50% debt-to-capital, though that is a book ratio. Certainly something that we focused on, the rating agencies focused on, but I think it's probably certainly tertiary to those first two. And so – and part of the reason why we focused on that 4.25 is, as…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Thanks. Good morning. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Morning, Greg.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Yeah. So if I'm looking at slide 17, just to be clear, thinking about the capital allocation beyond the $500 million, since the CapEx savings is coming at GenOn and a portion of the asset sales will probably be at GenOn, we should think about sort of $250 million, maybe plus or minus – plus whatever portion of the asset sales are non-GenOn, as being pointed at debt reduction at the parent, incremental to the $500 million in 2016, is that correct? Kirkland B. Andrews - Chief Financial Officer, Director & Executive VP: I think the way you've categorized that, Greg, is right, although certainly we – as I've said, we're focused near-term in allocating that capital towards debt reduction. So I'd be hesitant to say prescriptively all of it, but for right now that's certainly where we are definitely focused. And the way you describe that in terms of the geography, yes, $100 million of that CapEx savings all resides at GenOn. The $250 million in the non-recourse financing we expect to be at the NRG level, offsetting what would otherwise be NRG capital allocation or CapEx towards the completion of that environmental spend at Midwest Gen. And then the asset sales, depending on the outcome, will be a blend in terms of proceeds between NRG and GenOn. So the way you summarized that is accurate, yes.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Right. And then the first – your primary focus is debt reduction. And when we get into 2017, you're looking at, presumably, if we could keep the EBITDA from bleeding too much, an incremental $350 million improvement in cash available for capital allocation at the parent? Kirkland B. Andrews - Chief Financial Officer, Director & Executive VP: Yes. That's correct.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Okay. Kirkland B. Andrews - Chief Financial Officer, Director & Executive VP: Which is – and as I said, that does not include, at least in that calculation, any anticipated proceeds from the GreenCo process or further NRG Yield drop downs, which would obviously supplement that $350 million.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Got you. And then my follow-up question, when I look at the buildup on page 16, the GenOn EBITDA of $335 million, that's net of the shared services payments. So if I was looking at a simple EBITDA just on asset performance, you're projecting it to be about $530 million in 2016? Kirkland B. Andrews - Chief Financial Officer, Director & Executive VP: That's right. You'd add back that roughly $200 million to get to that sort of asset-level performance as you said, correct.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Okay. Thanks guys. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Greg.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Your line is now open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Hey, guys, good morning. First quick easy question for you. I wanted to focus on the $100 million cost savings, just what that comprises of, and also more importantly, I see a FORNRG statement here of a cumulative 180. Just wanted to understand – or 150 through 2018. Can you comment how the two jive? What should we expect in 2017 and 2018 in terms of run-rate increments? David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Mauricio? Mauricio Gutierrez - Chief Operating Officer, Director & Executive VP: Hey, good morning, Julien. So, I mean, the first one is the operating expenses. And I would – I mean, I listed some of the main drivers of that, but I will say the first gives you the impact of the decisions, the asset optimization decisions that we made at Portland, the suspension of Portland and the retirement of Huntley. The second one is, we've gone through a line-by-line review of every single asset, particularly those that are in more challenging market conditions, and we have right-sized the cost structure to comport with those market dynamics. And then the third one is, as we have a portfolio of close to 50,000 megawatts, allow us to optimize the management of forced outage risk, and what I call the contingency money that we know we're going to have to spend, we just don't know where. So if you have a single asset you have to budget for the forced outage, the probability of forced outage. But when you have 50,000 megawatts, then you can optimize across the entire portfolio. So that is the step one. Step two is the FORNRG portfolio, and this is a target. You're familiar with the FORNRG, because we show the fourth iteration of this. We are looking at, company-wide, how can we do the things are we're doing today, better in a more cost effective way. So think of this as contract renegotiations, rail renegotiations, property tax renegotiations. So, I mean it is the host of things that we can do, that is very difficult to pinpoint today, but we've been very effective and we've been very successful in achieving, in the past, these cost savings, which they will flow directly to the bottom line. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And that's all, in every part of the company. Mauricio Gutierrez - Chief Operating Officer, Director & Executive VP: That is, everywhere in the company, including retail, just across the company.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Got it. So perhaps just a quick follow up there. Some of your assets seem to generate negative cash flow in Texas. I'd be curious how that might fit into that puzzle? And then perhaps to boot with that, a more strategic question, coming back to perhaps the, what you alluded to earlier Dave, about yourselves being in those top four residential players, how is the strategic review proceeding? And perhaps, if you can answer one question, what is it that you need to "fix" your retail solar – your solar efforts more broadly? Is it an installation platform, or what are you kind of ending up in the strategic process thus far? David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. Do I... Mauricio Gutierrez - Chief Operating Officer, Director & Executive VP: I mean, I'll – Julien, I'll go first about your... David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I'll probably go on the second part of the question. I forgot what the first was. Mauricio Gutierrez - Chief Operating Officer, Director & Executive VP: I will take the first one, David. So, I think you are alluding to – I don't know what particular asset you are saying, but what I can tell you, Julien is I think we've demonstrated financial discipline when we have an asset that, number one, is in negative free cash flow; number two, the prospects of a recovery in that market are such that we cannot justify the continuing operation of that plant; and then number three, which I think is significantly important in Texas, is the prospect in terms of additional environmental CapEx to comply with upcoming rules. We will evaluate, and if needed retire, just like we did in Huntley. What I can tell…

Kelcy Pegler - President-NRG Home Solar

Management

No, I think that's pretty good, David. I would just say we're working on the cohesiveness. We're satisfied with both our sales and installation increase in Q3. Most notably what was important to us was we were able to sell and install more systems without adding significant head count. In fact, we ended Q3, almost exactly flat from a head count perspective. So without adding cost. And Julien, I think what we've done is, we've really focused and we're determined to achieve that 90 day from signature to energization of the solar system. And we've identified with this theme of an excess backlog, which is any job that exceeds that 90-day timeline. And then the optimal backlog, which is all the jobs being executed within that timeline, and we believe we're poised to be executing all of our backlog and all of our bookings to energization in the first half of 2016 within 90 days. And so that's what I would tell you.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Great. Thank you. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Julien.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Good morning, guys. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Kirkland B. Andrews - Chief Financial Officer, Director & Executive VP: Good morning.

Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Just picking up on the question about the GreenCo process. I was curious, David, you made the statement in your prepared remarks – I think it was the prepared remarks – that you wouldn't be surprised to see utilities wanting to buy into this business. Are you suggesting that among the parties you're talking to, there may be some utilities? Can you just give us any color, or is that sort of more further out in time? David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, no – well, I didn't say it in my prepared remarks, just for accuracy's sake. I would not say that that's the main body of – I mean, if you – I guess Jonathan, what I would say in simpler terms, if you divided the people that are interested – or if you categorized the people interested in GreenCo into financial partners and strategic partners, there are significantly more financial partners than there are potential strategic partners.

Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. I mean, that's helpful. And then I guess, I mean like, when you announced the Reset, you were talking much more broadly about potential structures, majority, minority, and the like, and it now seems to be – you have enough visibility that you are pretty confident that you can do a majority deal. Is that what we should take away from the shift in the language? David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think what you should take away is that, through the preliminary phase, we got a significant amount of encouragement on that, but I think what you should really take away is the point that was made in the prepared remarks, that first and foremost it's value that we're looking for so. So, again, it's – I'm just commenting, I mean, people have not put numbers down on a piece of paper. So there's a significant amount of flexibility that remains around the GreenCo process, and we won't – I don't want to give any sort of final answer until we see numbers on paper, and then we might modify accordingly, but definitely in the non-quantified stage, there is a lot of encouragement around that structure.

Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Thank you. And you, can you just give us any sense of when, what do you think the likely timing for this to play out? I heard you say you prioritized value over speed. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, I mean, I don't remember if we said it in our prepared remarks on September 17, but I think we did, which was that, we thought the whole process would be concluded within six months to nine months, and I continue to be highly confident in that timeframe. I mean, I know that some questions have happened, would be able to give people sort of more of an update by the end of the year. And I just can't make a call on that, because usually right when you're in the middle – I mean, we will clearly know more by the end of the year, but whether we share with you – usually you don't talk about things when you're in the middle of an active discussion. So I can't really help you, other than say, Jonathan, we're confident that it'll all be done within the original six month to nine month timeframe.

Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Thank you very much, David. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Liz, I'm sorry, and I'm sorry for the people who want to continue to get in the queue, but we – since we have an NRG Yield call in a relatively few minutes, we're going to take one more question, and then for the others in the queue, again, I'm sorry, and please call in and we'll answer any questions that you have.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Neel Mitra with Tudor Pickering. Your line is now open. Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Hi, good morning. Could you just kind of give us the timeframe for the cost cuts? So it's the $100 million, is that for the full 2016 or is it a partial year? And then the remaining $150 million, when does is that fully kick in? David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Neel, it's a good question. I'm glad you asked it, because I mean, I would say within the prioritization of time, within the, all the various initiatives that make up the Reset, our immediate focus, and something that's taken an enormous amount of time of management team and across the organization, has been cost-cutting. And that's precisely so that we could give you the answer I'm about to give you, which is we're – we're working so hard so quickly, because we want full year 2016 effect, both with respect to the G&A cost program, which internally goes under the name DOP, for doing our part, and then on the O&M cost saving portion. And Mauricio, do you have anything to add to that or... Mauricio Gutierrez - Chief Operating Officer, Director & Executive VP: No. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I don't think so. Yes. Anyway, Neel, did you have any follow-up question, and then we'll call it a day, Liz. Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Yeah, just had one quick question. So, with gas prices where they are, how are Parish and Limestone in Texas running now? Are you seeing some displacement from gas assets, or what do those capacity factors look like? Mauricio Gutierrez - Chief Operating Officer, Director & Executive VP: Yeah, Neel. So, I mean I think the statistics that we're providing on the third quarter were pretty representative of the – how competitive those two assets are. I mean, we increased our generation in Texas for our baseload fleet, that includes nuclear and coal. As we go into the shorter months, we always see a reduction in capacity factors, but that's just normal seasonality. I can't tell you that we're seeing an increasing coal to gas switching that we haven't seen in previous months, so. Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Okay. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Neel, thank you for the question. David Whipple Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And I just want to thank everyone for participating, and we'll keep you updated in the weeks and months to come. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program and you many now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.