Earnings Labs

NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 9, 2016

$151.16

-2.40%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-0.62%

1 Week

-4.13%

1 Month

-9.59%

vs S&P

-7.34%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the NRG Energy Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Kevin Cole, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Cole, you may begin.

Kevin L. Cole - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Great. Thank you. Good morning and welcome to NRG Energy's second quarter 2016 earnings call. This morning's call is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investor section of our website at www.nrg.com under Presentations and Webcasts. As of this earnings call, any statements made on this call that may pertain to NRG Yield will be provided from NRG's perspective. Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements which are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everybody to review the Safe Harbor in today's presentation, as well as risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law. In addition, we refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation and this presentation. Now, with that, I'll now turn the call over to Mauricio Gutierrez, NRG's President and Chief Executive Officer. Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined this morning by Kirk Andrews, our Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call and available for questions, we have Chris Moser, Head of Operations and Elizabeth Killinger, Head of our Retail business. Today, we're reporting second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $779 million, a 14% increase when compared to the same period last year, thanks to a solid performance from the Generation business and a record second quarter result for Retail, which continues to benefit from lower wholesale prices, a proven ability to attract and retain customers, and outstanding execution. These are excellent…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open

Good morning, gentlemen. Great quarter. Thank you. Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey. Good morning, Greg.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open

Can you just give us maybe a little bit more granular detail on the strength of the – in the Generation business in the quarter because it's at odds with the performance of some of your competitors? I'm wondering whether it has to do with outage timing or other nuances going on there. Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. Look I mean I – as you could see on my prepared remarks, Greg, Generation business actually benefited from three main reasons. One was the hedge profile that we had and the opportunistic hedging that we've consistently done over the last couple of years. Two, we have actually focused on managing costs. We look at optimizing our maintenance CapEx, our outages and we're trying to be consistent with the way the portfolio is running today which is not the same way the portfolio ran before. So, we need to adjust our operating philosophy. And then last one, I think we also benefited from capacity revenues coming from our South Central region, where in the past, we've said that we were able to move some megawatts into the PJM capacity auction. And so those are the three big drivers on the Generation business, Greg.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open

Thanks. Second question, on your slide 6, you show that the market conditions have improved demonstrably in ERCOT, and some investors are frustrated that despite the gas price move, we haven't seen a commensurate move up in power prices on PJM. I put that to sort of the way the dispatch curve looks and you're kind of in the deep part of the smile now where gas has to keep moving up for gas plants to move back ahead of coal, but there's also a theory that coal was burning out of dispatch and that's been putting pressure on power prices in that market. And that now that that's no longer happening, we might see better conditions. Can you comment on whether either or both of those are true? And if not, what's your outlook for PJM power prices? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Look, I mean, I've heard the frustration about moving gas prices up and power not following through. I think what I wanted to represent in this slide is that in Texas, it's actually – we have seen dark spreads move significantly both in terms of heat rate expansion and following natural gas. With respect to PJM, I think the story's slightly different. If you look at gas basis in PJM, have actually significantly decreased over the summer. And I think that is putting some pressure on the spark spreads. I am not of the theory that coal generators are running uneconomically in the region. I just think that you're seeing an influx of combined cycles, you're seeing pretty good gas prices or low gas prices compared to the forward markets a couple of months ago. And I think the combination of those two are just putting some pressure on the spark equivalent. On a long-term basis, as the market implemented capacity performance standards and we're seeing this massive turnover between coal and natural gas. We should expect more pressure on spark spreads. I mean the capacity performance market was designed to ensure that generators have more availability during scarcity conditions. So as we look past 2017, and towards the end of the decade, I expect to have more pressure on the spark spread in PJM and be more constructive on capacity prices. I mean that's why we shifted the strategy in the East, particular in PJM, towards becoming a capacity resource as opposed to providing energy. We still maintain that option on energy and it's a cheap option, but most of the investments that we have made are on the back of what we think is a more constructive part of the market which is the capacity one.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hey, guys. Two questions. One shorter term, one longer term. First of all, shorter term, you reported and congrats on this, what looks like to be a really healthy, really strong second quarter and yet, you left 2016 guidance intact rather than raised. Just curious, what are some of the headwinds you see for the second half of 2016 that make you keep guidance at the current level? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Michael. Look, as I indicated, I think we're tracking towards the upper end of the guidance. I mean, it is the second quarter. We have a lot of the summer ahead of us and I think it's just prudent to keep our guidance the way we had it. We're very comfortable with the position that we have, we're very comfortable with the hedging that we have for balance of the year. But let's keep in mind that we still have August and September which can be really hot in Texas. And I think it was – it's just – from a prudency standpoint, we felt that it was the right thing to do to maintain our guidance. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Got it. Okay. And thinking longer term, I mean if you just look at the company's portfolio, if there's a scenario where you're no longer the principal of – owner of GenOn, how does the board think about the market positioning of NRG – legacy NRG in terms of markets you have significant exposure to like ERCOT and then markets maybe in a next GenOn world like PJM where…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Your line is now open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Your line is now open

Hi. Good morning. How are you? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey. Good morning, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Your line is now open

So, I wanted to ask a quick question real quickly around the Texas outlook. Obviously, things are evolving in that space and I wanted to get a sense real quickly as to what your thoughts are both as to retirements of not just coal assets but further steam assets and gas assets, more broadly, as well as the potential for any kind of settlement as it relates to the haze regulations with the EPA and how that might ultimately play out. Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Julien, I mean, I've said it before. I think the Texas market continues to be one of the most effective markets in the country, particularly from where we're starting. If you look at the spark spreads, if you look at power prices, they were completely oversold the last couple of months. And that basically shifted some of the bullishness that we have in that respective market. When you look at the fundamental there, even the first half of the year, we have very, very strong growth, and if I'm not mistaken, yesterday, we set a new all-time record in Texas. So, load growth continues; load growth is very robust. We like the market structure. We like the higher price cuts. I think there are improvements that need to happen, particularly on ORDC and to make sure that we have better price signals when we enter into scarcity conditions. And as you mentioned, I mean I think there is a risk for rationalization in supply, in retirements. My expectation is that, if we continue to see this current level of pricing, there are some old steam units and perhaps some environmentally uncontrolled coal plants, that will retire because they are not going to be able to make the math work when putting back in controls. Look, I mean I don't want to be myopic in terms of the regional haze and what will happen, and it stayed and we're going to go through the process. But behind the regional haze, you have the ELG. You have the 1-hour SO2. I mean you have a number of other environmental regulations. I think ultimately, smaller or medium sized coal units that are not controlled or well controlled, the outlook is just not going to look very promising. And perhaps it delays the retirement decision one or two years, but I think, ultimately, people will make the right economic decision. And the low gas price environment and the low spark spread environment accelerated some of that. I mean, we actually filed to mothball one of our old steamers. It was needed for reliability. Other generators have done the same. I think you're going to continue to see that in the coming years if something doesn't drastically change in the market. But we're starting to see some recovery, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Your line is now open

But just to be specific here, I mean, do you see a potential for a settlement with EPA, a universal – either with the haze or more broadly? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I mean, it's very difficult to speculate a settlement on haze with the EPA. I mean, as I said, I mean, I think there is a number of other environmental regulations that will be limiting. And even under the regional haze, you have other parts of that regulation that's still applicable in the region. So my view and my take is perhaps a little bit more generic that environmental regulations are going to be more stringent. And if you don't have good backend controls or you're in a good location or you're actually burning a lower sulfur coal, that – making the math work will be difficult.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Your line is now open

Got you. And then just a follow-up, in terms of GenOn, and I know this is kind of a little bit off the reservation, but in terms of just your ability to deal with any allocated costs, in the eventuality that something does happen there, how are you feeling about your ability to mitigate those costs? Now, I don't know if that's too far astray or not, but obviously last time you made a comment, how are you feeling about your efforts now to re-evaluate your cost structure and potentially mitigate the allocated costs, if it truly does come to it? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Look, Julien, I mean, I don't want to speculate on how we're going to be allocating cost and any potential outcomes. I mean, I think what I said about the GenOn situation is that, it's early. We are in active dialogue – or GenOn is in active dialogue with their creditors. I've laid out kind of the three principles that we're going to apply as we navigate through this process, simplifying the capital structure. And we are maximizing value and ensuring that we don't impact negatively the credit metrics of NRG. And as we go through this process, we're going to be using these three principles to make sure that we make the right economic decision. So, I mean, beyond that, Julien, it's really just – speculating is probably not the prudent thing to do as we go through this process right now.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Your line is now open

Got it. Thank you very much. Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: All right. Thank you, Julien.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Abe Azar with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Abe C. Azar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Abe Azar with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Thank you. Good morning. Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Abe.

Abe C. Azar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Abe Azar with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

On slide 13, most of these 2016 strategic priorities have been accomplished already. What are some of your strategic priorities for the second half beyond the GenOn restructuring, and do you have any further opportunities to pursue asset sales or dropdowns? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Look. I mean, I'm very pleased with the progress that we have made on all the priorities, and that has afforded us the opportunity to be looking at some other strategic objectives clearly accelerating the GenOn discussion is one, but in a more general theme, I'm looking at – continue to perfect the integrated platform that we have. And that goes from the Generation portfolio to Renewables, to our Retail, whether it's residential or C&I. I am evaluating what parts of the value proposition that we have need to be strengthened and which opportunities are available in these four core businesses that we have. So, beyond just giving you more specifics, what I will tell you is that perhaps we're pivoting weaker towards looking at other strategic opportunities as we have made such a good progress on the deleveraging front.

Abe C. Azar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Abe Azar with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Great. And perhaps similarly with the reduction in debt you have in place for 2016 and the reserves for the 2018 maturities, will 2017 capital be more focused on shareholder return or growth capital or... Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I think that's fair. When I think about capital allocation, I made the case that we needed to focus on deleveraging that was the right thing to do given where we were on the commodity cycle. As we are getting now significantly below our 4.25 target, we can start focusing on returning capital to shareholders or some other growth investments. So, as I said, it's been good progress and perhaps a little ahead of schedule that we can actually turn our attention into that. But for 2016, most of the capital is committed. For 2017, certainly we will evaluate the other two options that we have.

Abe C. Azar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Abe Azar with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Your line is open.

Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Your line is open

Hi, guys. Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey. Good morning, Praful.

Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Your line is open

Hi. So first question was on GenOn, I just wanted to – and building on, I guess, a previous question. I just wanted to confirm and understand, how strong is the ring fence? As in, is there any risk that the GenOn credit or creditors have any claim at the NRG level or is the ring fence tight enough that those two boxes will be completely independent? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. Look, I mean I feel very comfortable with the ring fence around GenOn. We have made the right operational decisions to position the portfolio to benefit from market trends at PJM. All the cash within the GenOn entity has remained in GenOn even inclusive of the asset sales which from my perspective were done very opportunistically, and at the right time, and at very good multiples. So from my perspective, the integrity of that entity is pretty strong. But, Kirk, do you have anything to add there? Kirkland B. Andrews - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, I think you summarized it well. I mean, at the outset of the transaction when we closed it, we announced we restructured it for a myriad of reasons as an excluded project sub on a non-recourse basis. And from a governance, operational, and financial perspective, we have adhered to all principles around that. So that, I would just echo that contributes to our confidence that we've established what's necessary to ensure from a financial standpoint and from a non-recourse standpoint, it is consistent with the objectives that we set out and we operated it, both financially and operationally, in line with those principles.

Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Your line is open

Got you. And secondly, in terms of the sensitivity to gas prices, just wanted to understand how Retail fits into the Generation side. And it's interesting, you clearly have Retail performing well and at low gas prices clearly it benefits. But then I wanted to understand, as gas prices go up, as you show in these sensitivities, what is the assumption around what happens to the Retail business, EBITDA and margins, under those situations? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Look, I mean when you think about the Retail book, just – our fixed price obligations on Retail don't extend beyond 6 to 12 months. And for the most part, they're hedged. They're hedged to expected lows, plus some variability around weather and different weather scenarios. We buy options to manage that variability. So if – in the short term, if gas prices increase, it doesn't necessarily impact our Retail business. I think in the long term, we have the opportunity to price low at the current market prices. So, it's further mitigated by that. I think where you'll see the difference is just in terms of the cycle around Retail in a low commodity priced environment where you have higher loads, then you can benefit from that because I guess on the margin on megawatt, you have expansion on margins. That situation doesn't necessarily happen in higher gas prices, particularly in the short term. Again, longer term, you always price at market, so you don't necessarily – our Retail business is not necessarily impacted by it.

Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Your line is open

Got you. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ali Agha with SunTrust. Your line is open.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust. Your line is open

Thank you. Good morning. Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey. Good morning, Ali.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust. Your line is open

Good morning. Mauricio, given the fact that the next big or the next maturity at GenOn is in 2017, for those of us looking at it from the outside, is it fair to say that whatever resolution you like to achieve most likely happens next year as we get closer to maturity and minds are more fixated on getting something done or might something actually play out this year? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Look, I mean, it's hard to say. I mean, this requires a number of stakeholders in the process. Certainly, the next summer is the first maturity that we have, the 2017s. From my perspective, we're trying to have a comprehensive long-term solution for GenOn. And that just resonates with one of the principles that I outlined, which is simplifying the capital structure or simplifying the message and the organization at the NRG level. So I'm looking at finding a long-term comprehensive solution and not necessarily just dealing with one specific maturity or not.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust. Your line is open

Okay. And then secondly, then just from again a big picture perspective, when you look at your new sort of cost profile given the actions you've taken, you've identified, and you couple that with your contract and capacity profile that you laid out for us, as well as the forward curves as they stand, are we still looking at a scenario directionally that implies downward pressure on 2017 EBITDA versus 2016 or can that be now mitigated with the cost actions you've taken? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Look. I mean, I'm not going to venture into providing guidance for 2017 or any indication. I think what I can tell you is that our CapEx program gets reduced by $650 million. And starting in 2017, I said it before, we're going to harvest some of the investments that we have made over the past two to three years to reposition the portfolio. So I think that combined with, as you said, some of the cost actions that we have taken in terms of streamlining of the organization, reducing costs, resizing and recalibrating businesses that were underperforming, so I think the combination of that, plus the outlook that we've had on 2017, particularly around natural gas, which is starting to play out, I think when you combine that, it starts giving you at least some direction what some of the levers and the drivers are.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust. Your line is open

Right. And just one quick follow-up. The assets that you've sold, the $563 million in proceeds, can you just remind us the annual EBITDA that goes with those asset sales? Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I am not sure that we've disclosed that, but if we have, we'll follow up with you. What I will tell you is that all the asset sales that we did, one, were non-core assets; two, they were done at pretty strong multiples compared to the EBITDA, and I think, three, capitalized actually in some of the particular outcomes on the capacity auctions and energy market. So we were – I was very pleased with the execution. It exceeded our initial target. And I think for now, we're going to pause. I mean, I don't think there is any additional asset sales that we need to do but I don't believe we have disclosed that EBITDA number.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Ali Agha with SunTrust. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mauricio Gutierrez for any closing remarks. Mauricio Gutierrez - Interim President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Great. Thank you, Andrea. I think that's all. Thank you, everybody, for participating on our call.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.