Michael Collins
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead
Yes, thanks Will. So let’s start with the last one which I – I think I kind of covered a little bit on the call. But if we get a ramp scenario, obviously we get an opportunity to react on the loan pricing, et cetera. So we do monitor a wide range of sort of scenarios which I think we've – I said a ramp scenario 4 cuts would sort of impact NII by about 3%, so it's down from the a short scenario of minus 100 parallel of 9.8. And obviously, offsetting part of that would be some of the cost mitigation that we've already put in place. Now I mean that depends on where the long end goes, but that sort of all other things being equal. If the long end starts moving down, obviously that exacerbates the reinvestment yield problem for us. But essentially as we talked about last quarter, we highlighted sort of the currency mix of deposits in the Channel Islands and lower rates on UK mortgage originations, we're placing loan volume amortization in high-yielding Bermuda loan book. So those two factors overall sort of unfavorable impact of NIM by sort of a handful of basis points this quarter. Of course we've seen, [indiscernible] we've seen 40%, 45 basis point drop in the 10-year and short end by marketers has come down by about 20, 25 basis points, which is Fed rates. So as you know, the bank doesn't have access to affect window, and we've run a short key bill book for liquidity and this is at a unfavorable yield impact of 19 basis points on a $2 billion as you can see on slide 6 of the presentation there. And additionally, duration has shorten due to low refinance rates and reinvestment rates have come down on the overall securities book, which was expected. And again, premium am, as we think about that, it's probably a handful of basis points. We don't have a lot of – we don't buy a lot of securities at above [indiscernible] sort of in the 103, 104 range across the book. So that isn’t a big factor but obviously, as we think about pre4mium ABN versus where the – duration versus weighted average life of the book, the durations is coming more than the way to average size of the book, if you will. On deposit side, we had a positive OCI for the first time since 2017. And as we already mentioned, we're focused on offsetting some of the NIM pressure with the cost reductions. But I would stress we continue to manage credit risk appetite, liquidity, capital very conservatively so we can continue to extend duration with the new monies that we're putting to work and provide additional earning support for both dividend organic growth and also reengaging in share repurchases activity later on in the year.