Bill Doyle
President and CEO
Well, I don’t know about that last contention, Jacob. I’d debate that with you because a lot of those projects have been delayed and pushed out. I mean, I know, what we’ve got going on. But I don’t see it even in other Saskatchewan. I don’t see that, so we’ll debate that with you on the telephone afterwards. In terms of where we are for, let’s talk about ‘10, first of all. We said 50 million tonnes from the beginning of the year and everybody said that’s too high, that number is too high and all of your competitors are saying the number is 44 or 45, and those competitors have been coming up, just watching them creep up here with their various calls and we still at 50, and we think the number, we don’t have the official statistics for the first half, but when you run the numbers somewhere between 25 and 27 million, and if you keep in mind all of last year we were at 29.2. So we almost came up in the first half to ship as much as we shipped all last year. So that 50 number we feel that’s looking like we thought it was at the beginning year to be a recovery year and a substantial increase, up from the 29.2 of last year. If you look at 2011, I’m not going to get into 2012 because I’m not that smart. But 2011, if you look at some of the major markets, I already talked about China, 11 million. I’m talking consumption here and these are both domestic and imports. So if you take from 8.5 this year, which is our forecast for China up to 11, if you think about Brazil, and again you’re talking about domestic production in Brazil and imports, this year Brazil is going to be 6.5 and that number is 7 for next year that 6.5 might be a little low this year, I’m not sure. By the time it all ends but we’ve 7 in our numbers for next year and if you look at India, we’re 6 this year and we see 6.3 for next year. And then, if you want to look at other Asia, which is the big players there, Indonesia and Malaysia, we’re at 6 this year and we’ve got them for 6.3 next year. So that 55 million tonnes number, remember what I said, it doesn’t have any inventory rebuild in there, that’s just consumption. And, so if you get inventory rebuild, if the inflection point comes when the supply/demand tightens up and the price starts to move, you will see some inventory rebuild too, so that’s not in there, but that’s a real possibility.