David Butters
Analyst · Stifel. Please go ahead
Normally, we don't carry fewer LPG propane or butane from the U.S. Those are the very large gas carriers. The ethane -- so ethane and ethylene is so cheap in the United States, and think about it, what they can do, what is happening, is they are taking ethane in the United States, going through a manufacturing process with the incremental cost of that ethane, packaging it, terminaling it at Targa, putting it on our vessels, and able to ship it half way around the world in a relatively small 150 pounds a barrel capacity vessel to the Far East and make a profit. Now we have a rough idea of what the profit is on those trades, and its pretty significant part of the trade that its doing. Now, why is it happening, because essentially, ethane is being given away. So you are only having the manufacturing costs and pushing it through. Ethane is not competitive with LNG, because LNGs -- the manufacturing costs, to get the raw material, the manufacturing cost is so high. So there [indiscernible] appears to be any resistance, and we are moving it from the United States. We are moving ethylene from Brazil to the Far East as well, and that's an interesting trade, because you don't have, in Brazil, the cheap ethane that you do in the United States. It’s a trade that's going to continue. The economics, if we go on a very large ethane carrier, not the very large one but the mid-size ethylene carriers that we are building, cuts the cost dramatically to move it, which we don't even have to cut it, happening now in a small vessel. I think this is one of the most interesting phenomenon, and represents, what I have said before, a structural change taking place, as more of this is coming, and clearly I can envision potentially the market in the Far East, not taking ethane, but taking ethylene as rapid and going through the manufacturing. I don't really care where or when and whether its ethylene or ethane, our vessels carry either one and to change places. But I am sure it will be ethane down the road, because they are not going to close down plants, just to import ethylene into various countries. I don't know if that answers the question Ben, but it is a very powerful phenomenon that's happening, that I don't believe is going to let up, and only going to develop more, as the U.S. continues to put on additional olefins plants, more and more ethylene plants are being built, coming onstream in 2017-2018. There will be significant amounts of ethylene, and I have to say, that there has got to be more ethylene terminals, because its one relatively inefficient terminal base there in Galena Park.