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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Navigator Holdings Conference Call on the First Quarter 2016 Financial Results. We have with us Mr. David Butters, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Niall Nolan, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Oeyvind Lindeman, Chief Commercial Officer of the Company. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you, the conference is being recorded today, Tuesday, May 10, 2016. And I now pass the floor to one of your speakers, Mr. Butters. Please go ahead sir.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Thank you very much and good morning everyone. Welcome to Navigator's first quarter earnings conference call. Now, after my brief comments, Niall Nolan, our Chief Financial Officer will cover the financial details and he will be followed by Oeyvind Lindeman, our Chief Commercial Officer, who'll give us his views on the current markets. Now, while our first quarter revenues of $76.4 million were a near record, our earnings per share of $0.35 was $0.06 less than last year's first quarter. The absence of the Navigator Aries in this year's results versus her positive contribution last year, did account for about two-thirds of that shortfall. I am pleased to report that the Aries after a delay longer than we expected, did go back on term work with Pertamina in the Indonesia, the last week in March, and, in fact, had no real impact this past quarter. Nonetheless, we did begin to see some softness develop in our markets over the course of the first quarter. Some of the market softness can be explained by climatic conditions in Europe over the last two winters when temperatures averaged about normal resulting in higher inventory levels going into this past winter, followed by a somewhat diminished LPG demand for heating. In addition, LPG supplies from Norway and Russia rose at the expense of the longer-haul imports from the U.S. As you know, we have two vessels, the Navigator Leo and the Navigator Libra on long-term charter to the major Russian petrochemical company, Sibur. These vessels are ice class, a requirement from Sibur because of the normal winter icing of the Baltic Sea. Our vessels serve Sibur's Ust-Luga LPG export terminal, North of St. Petersburg and deliver product into Northern Europe. This winter however, with limited icing in the Baltic, non-ice class vessels were permitted…
NN
Niall Nolan
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
Thank you, David and good morning. The financial performance for the three months till March 31, 2016, as David said, showed some signs of weakening in the markets, mainly due to the absence of pricing arbitrage, principally of LPG between the U.S. and Europe. As a result, The Company's revenue and net income, particularly towards the latter part of the first quarter of 2016, have seen some impact as vessel utilization came under pressure, despite charter rates remaining relatively strong. Although revenue increased by 2.9% to $76.4 million compared to Q1 of 2015, net income and earnings per share reduced by 16% to $19.4 million and $0.35 respectively for the three months ended March 31, 2016. Revenue less voyage expenses increased by $1.9 million to $69.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2016, compared to $67.4 million generated during the equivalent three months in 2015. This increase in revenue was a result of a number of compensating factors. First, net revenue rose by $8.4 million due to the increased number of vessels in our fleet, which increased from 27 vessels during the first quarter of 2015 to 30 vessels operated during the first quarter of 2016. Second, charter rate movement contributed an additional $1 million in revenue during the first quarter of 2016 relative to the same period in 2015, as the rates nudged up to an average of $29,561 per day or $900,000 per month during the first quarter of 2016, compared to $29,180 or $887,000 per month during the first quarter of 2015. However, rates have lowered since the last quarter, the three months ended December 31, 2016 when charter rate averaged $30,281per day or $921,000 per month. Fleet utilization, however, declined significantly during the first quarter ended March 31, 2016 to 87.6% compared to 97.0%…
OL
Oeyvind Lindeman
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Thank you, Niall, and good morning everybody. At quarter end, we had 30 vessels carrying a total of 1.7 million metric tons of liquefied petroleum gases, ammonia gases, and petrochemical gases. Of the total 2,344 earning days during the quarter, 75% were covering LPG, 17% for petrochemical gases, and 8% for ammonia. However, for the 785 earning days across our vessels trading in the spot market, the petrochemical gas proportion reached a historic high of 53%, with LPG making up the remaining 48%. Interestingly, when comparing our petrochemical involvement with the first quarter 2015, we have experienced a doubling of cubic meter miles for the same volume, meaning that there is a tendency for increasing demand for deep sea movements of particularly ethylene, propylene, and butadiene, and principally from west to east. Further, we have doubled the volume of LPG carried on spot contracts to 170,000 metric tonnes compared to the same period in 2015. Our vessels are therefore increasingly utilizing the semi-refrigerated and sophisticated ethylene capabilities, enabling us to engage with our customers and assist them with these emerging trades. Just as an example, we recently concluded two handy-sized petrochemical shipments out of Saudi Arabia which is something we have never seen before, and we expect these opportunities to continue as we move throughout this year and next year and on. Niall mentioned the fleet employment essentially with the 15 ships from time charter and three vessels doing employment on our contract of affreightment leaving a cover ratio of 60%. This has been our historic rule of thumb going back many years, and we are excited and happy that we are able to maintain that in the current market. Thank you very much.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Good. Daniel, we can open up the call now for Q&A.
-C
Q - Jonathan Chappell
Analyst
Thank you. Good morning David, Oeyvind, Niall.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Good morning.
JC
Jonathan Chappell
Analyst
David and Oeyvind, just a couple questions, a little bit more detail on the markets. So, the softening that you referenced, I mean David when you dug deep into that, there seem like there were a couple seasonal anomalies there, warmer weather in Europe, lack of seasonal arbitrage. Can you give us any sense now that we're almost exactly halfway through the second quarter, if that same type of softening in the core LPG markets has remained improved, gotten any worse, and how that relates to both the rates that you're seeing as well as, I guess, more importantly the utilization of your spot ships.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Thank you for that question and Oeyvind, why don't you try to push through quarter's end and take a peek at what's going on in this second quarter.
OL
Oeyvind Lindeman
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Hi, Joan. I think, as I mentioned in my comment here, the petrochemical voyages are really keeping the utilization above the 85% mark. So, we haven't finished second quarter yet, but we are fixing forward on these petrochemical voyages loading in May and also June. So, we are concluding those as we speak. And if you remember, last call we had a comparison about the duration of typical spot LPG voyage for us and for our petrochemical deep sea voyage, and I think the latter is 70 days kind of round voyage and the LPG voyages are less than 10. So, the more of this we see and we are encouraging these trades with our customers. I think utilization for at least the petrochemical trade will keep that going. LPG, it depends a little bit about, as you say, the price arbitrage and so forth. We are fighting with VLGC as well for LPGs out of U.S. into Europe, and we are doing some of the business there, particularly on butane, which is, as we have mentioned briefly before, the handy-sized butane parcels are attractive to the European petrochemical industry and they are still importing handy-sized LPG vessel. So, don't know whether that answers your question, but I think the key here, at least in the very near-term, is the petrochemical trade which has completely opened for us. Last year, we did very little; this year, we're doing much more.
JC
Jonathan Chappell
Analyst
That is helpful. And I'm glad you mentioned VLGCs briefly Oeyvind, because I guess in a sense we've been kind of led to believe that there is very little direct competition between the VLGCs and the semi-refrigerated handy-sized ships, but it seems that maybe there is a bit of a trickledown effect at least as it relates to propane and butane. Can you just explain a little bit more the competitive dynamics there and as we've seen the precipitous drop in the VLGC rates, has that had a direct impact on your specific business?
OL
Oeyvind Lindeman
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
I think it's more of a perception. So, if the VLGC rates are – while they were down at 600 TCE and if a customer needs to pay more for a ship that is four times small, the customer has difficulties kind of getting around that issue, whether they are forced to have a semi-refrigerated ship or not. But when it comes to fully refrigerated propane, of course, that perception is less. So, then it becomes whether that ship is able to call that specific port or not. So again, for butane, particularly for the petrochemical industry, more of the terminals are more amicable for handy-sized ships than VLCG. So, some of those restrictions still apply.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
You have the terminal size limiting the length of a vessel is a real constraint for VLCGs, particularly in Europe and Latin America, as well as storage facilities. A very large gas carrier has a lot of fully refrigerated storage that is required. So, it's not a direct competition, but they have some influence, if you will. But I suppose there is a trickle-down effect to some extent, but not direct and not in your face.
JC
Jonathan Chappell
Analyst
Okay, and then one of Niall. Also kind of 1Q as we look into 2Q, it sounds from the comments – your comments and also reading the 6-K that there maybe is little bit of elevated maintenance on some of the older ships in 1Q. Does that really ring sense into that particular quarter or is that going to be a higher kind of daily maintenance run rate going forward for those ships?
NN
Niall Nolan
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
You're right, the additional costs related to the older ships, the five, or four of the five plans has specifically auxiliary engine issues that each of them had. We believe that's ring fenced and most of those costs now are incurred in Q1.
JC
Jonathan Chappell
Analyst
Okay, great. So to sum it all up, obviously still optimistic about the long term and you talked about Mariner East and all the new LPG exports that are coming. In the meantime, there is a little bit of headwinds, but it seems that most of them, especially from the cost side and maybe from the seasonal side was in the first quarter, little bit of weakness in the LPG going forward, but the pet chems helping offset that a little bit. So without putting words in your mouth, hopefully 1Q is the weakest quarter of the foreseeable future.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
I hope so, Jonathan. I am absolutely as excited about the future as I have ever been, in some regards, even more exciting. But yes, a little headwind here. Frankly, not expected, I think the weather and the rapid fall in the price of oil did catch us a bit by surprise. But, we're adjusting and I think I'm not terribly concerned at all.
JC
Jonathan Chappell
Analyst
Thanks to all David, Oeyvind and Niall.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Thank you, Jonathan.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much indeed, sir. Now your next question from Jefferies comes from the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir.
DM
Doug Mavrinac
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Good morning, guys and good afternoon for Oeyvind and Niall. I just had a few follow-ups for you all. First, as it pertains to the LPG portion of your business, we saw a pretty decent uptick in LPG exports out of the U.S. during the month of April, back to say 3Q, 4Q types of levels. But that gives me the thinking, for the last few April's, we've seen a similar uptick. So, as it pertains to kind of what's happening right now. How much of the rebound in activity is just seasonal, but also how much of it is a result of oil prices being much higher than they were during their first quarter. So, I guess my question is, how do you guys see a strengthening oil price environment later this year or 2017 impacting all of your businesses, LPG, the petrochemical side, et cetera.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Okay. Some of this can be answered by Oeyvind. Remember, April begins a point where domestic U.S. consumption tapers off so that more product becomes available, pricing becomes looser, and therefore the arbitrage typically opens up and therefore volumes. I think that's the April phenomenon unless Oeyvind sees anything else from that particular issue. Oeyvind?
OL
Oeyvind Lindeman
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
The direct result of that is inventory buildup in the U.S. During the first quarter, it was draw down April-May, you have every week that has been at least a million barrels of LPG being built up in the inventory. So, I think that has turned, you're right.
DM
Doug Mavrinac
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Right. So, April may be more seasonal. So, then what that leads a question to is, if crude oil prices in fact begin to strengthen and the market comes into a better balance, the oil market itself that is, how do you guys perform or how a strengthening crude oil price environment impact your business in terms of arb opportunities, spreads and so on. Just kind of given if that's where we're heading, how do you expect that to impact your business?
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
It clearly will help for a number of different reasons, Doug. First, arbitrage obviously opens up, availability of product opens up, the replacement of naphtha for petrochemicals widens and is more attractive. New projects, ethane projects, ethylene projects, they just become more interesting. Look, if ethylene right now can move to the Far East and moving it in February at the bottom of the pricing of oil, if it is attractive to send ethylene to the Far East when the bottom of $35, $38 barrel of oil, if you get a $50 a barrel of oil, it's going to be dramatically improved. There's a whole series of things. Yes, I think business becomes much more buoyant with a high price of oil.
DM
Doug Mavrinac
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
That's what I would've thought just because – in addition to kind of hammer Jon's point home that in addition to seasonality if we are in this more healthy commodity price environment and that should be good for you guys.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Yes. No, question, but I can't control the price of oil [indiscernible]
DM
Doug Mavrinac
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Yeah, that'd be great if you could. My second question, David, has to do with more of the ethane export opportunity, particularly out of the U.S., because late last month, we saw Braskem and Enterprise sign a 10-year ethane export contract. My question for you guys is, what are either the direct or probably more likely, indirect takeaways from such an agreement. I mean, does it validate U.S. ethane exports? Does it tighten the market? So, what are your takeaways from that particular announcement?
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Yes. The ethane exports are not dead. The projects were delayed, I believe, because of the low price of oil where capital commitments for terminals and storage and so on got delayed as people adjusted and try to understand what was happening in the collapse of the price of oil. But ethane is definitely, it's still on the table and will continue to grow, we'll see more of it. Now, the one issue with ethane is the availability of ethane. Enterprise has got their 200,000 barrel a day facility in Houston. They are close to capacity and I believe they do have the opportunity to expand it without a great deal of expenditure. We know that there are other companies still talking to them about incremental volumes to be purchased out of that facility. The disappointing is on the East Coast with the Sunoco Logistics' Mariner East II being delayed six months because there is a lot of ethane available in the Marcellus and Utica basins that needs to get to the market, but they need a pipeline to get there. The terminal is ready, storage facilities are there, but the pipeline is needed. I think once they get their hands around the completion of that pipeline Mariner East II, you will see a ramp up of additional ethane exports and Braskem is working out of the enterprise capacity and they're in the market now. We'll see what they settle on. I think you'll see that probably within the next month or so.
DM
Doug Mavrinac
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Got you, very helpful. And just final question; one thing I've noticed, in terms of, kind of keeping an eye on the order book is that newbuilding orders have really dried up this year. I mean, I think we literally have seen one newbuilding order for like a 7500 cubic meter vessel and that's it. My question is, given how strong the market is – I know that first quarter wasn't as strong as late last year, but it's still pretty darn strong. Kind of, what's behind in your view does that lack of newbuilding orders and how does that affect your outlook? I mean, does it go from good to really good because no one else is ordering?
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
I'm always going to expect there will be orders. Just as you don't expect it, they come at you and that's always chain around your neck pulling it down as new orders. But you're right, they haven't been really anything for a couple of years. And why, I think it's a number of different reasons, finances dried up for people. First, understand, in our handy-sized fleet, particularly the semi-refrigerated, and especially the ethylene capable stuff, it is a complicated business. I mean, it's not your simple vessel crewing and easy to do it. It requires a lot of talent on shore as well as on the vessel itself. But the complexity of financing, the collapse of the price of oil, which I think put everyone into a funk about where everything is going and the availability of LPGs and the whole economic dynamic, was said in question and a limited number of shipyards. There are basically were down to maybe two or three shipyards that can build a capable and one of the shipyards has had some serious financial trouble and there is an issue that some of the backlog in building may not get built, I've seen that in TradeWinds the other, last. So from that endpoint, very attractive, but you never can predict someone coming out of the woodwork and ordering. But at the moment, you're absolutely right. Newbuilds and newbuild orders have dried up. The order book may not be as solid as we were led to believe, if you read some of the reports. And so I think that side of the thing is better today than it was two months ago.
DM
Doug Mavrinac
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Totally agree. Well actually, that's all I have, David. Thank you so much for the time.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much indeed sir. Now from Morgan Stanley, your next question comes from the line of Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir.
SE
Sherif Elmaghrabi
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
Hi, it is Sherif on for Fotis. Just a couple quick industry questions from me. Shale production is shrinking at the same time that a number of PDH plants are ready to come online in the U.S. So, how do you see U.S. propane exports going forward? Is there room for future growth?
DB
David Butters
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
It certainly appears to be. Remember, Navigator, with its handy-sized vessels is far, far less dependent upon propane exports out of the U.S. than other LPG companies. Most of the other companies are very large gas carries; their whole dependence is designed around U.S. exports of LPG. That's not the case with Navigator. We don't need a lot of exports out of the U.S. What we need is just volumes anywhere around the world. What we need is petrochemical gases developing in areas that heretofore had not developed in giving us long-haul, but LPGs and propane, butane is coming out of the year, it is all the matter of price. We have the shale formations, the structural geological structures here in the United States to tap and produce quantities of LPG pretty much at will. The infrastructure that had never been in place until a few years ago is now in place. So, it's going to be extremely responsive. The volumes of LPG will be extremely responsive to price in the United States, because there's nothing really now that needs to be built out and all of the terminal and so on are there. Is that the question you had asked?
SE
Sherif Elmaghrabi
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
I think you tackled most of it. So, I'd imagine then you'd say that Marcus Hook accepting VLGCs that will have a limited effect on demand for semi-refrigerated vessels? Am I constraining up anyway?
DB
David Butters
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
If you have a refrigeration unit and you have a market, a very large gas carrier is more efficient way to move it, particularly to the Far East. That's where they are good at, long-haul, large volumes. Marcus Hook with 275,000 of barrels of LPG coming when it's completed, that's a lot of volume and particularly when the Mariner East III is to be followed. I think it's going to be shared by long-haul VLGCs, by short-haul into Europe and Latin America with handy-sized. It's a mixture. We couldn't handle anything like 270,000. The whole fleet of handy-sized couldn't deal with that size volume, never designed to be. We just like a little piece of it and the little piece goes a long way with our handy vessels
SE
Sherif Elmaghrabi
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
Okay, transitioning to the ethane trade, ethane production has softened a bit as drilling activities declined and producers move to dry areas. At the same time, the crude to gas ratio has narrowed significantly. So, is there a level that I think exports become interesting again and is there room for your open ethane carriers to be deployed in any of the ethane crackers under construction?
DB
David Butters
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
I would say the answer is, of course, yes. We're working currently on some projects. We cannot announce anything about at the moment, but we are working on projects that require ethane. But ethane works, ethylene works, both of those work, and they are in development stages. They take time, they take time because the infrastructure required both in the U.S. and on a receiving terminal take time, they take capital and they have to have some degree of certainty attached to it, and with the price of oil fluctuating as much as it has in the last 12 months, there has been some delay in those activities. But ethane is here, there is tons of it, a lot of it will be absorbed by domestic crackers and other facilities. But there is an abundance of ethane that will be exported, both as a pure form, raw material and as ethylene and our vessels are indifferent, will carry ethane or ethylene, doesn't matter. Ethane will tend to be longer term charters, simply because it's a raw material feeding a plant, ethylene will be more optimistic, opportunistic and looking at more arbitrage place, but it will do just as it is right now.
SE
Sherif Elmaghrabi
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
So, in terms of these projects coming online, it's more a matter of the volatility in prices as opposed to just a price rising above a certain threshold, is what you're saying?
DB
David Butters
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
That's correct. Certainly well – once it's settled, they will work.
SE
Sherif Elmaghrabi
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
Okay. Got it, that’s it from me. Thank you.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · Fotis Giannakoulis, and your line is now open sir
Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much indeed. Now from Wells Fargo, your next question comes from the line of Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir.
DM
Donald McLee
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
Hey guys, most of my questions have been addressed, but I just had a couple of quick ones. As far as the technical management of the fleet, you mentioned bringing in-house three additional vessels in 2016 and I was wondering if the longer-term goal was to bring in-house technical management of the entire fleet?
DB
David Butters
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
We'll look at that. I mean there are lot of good advantage to use outside technical manages, as benchmarking to what we do. Sometimes, they have some particular expertise in a vessel and so on. The goal is to control and make sure the quality of the operation is at the highest level possible. That's our goal. That's what we want to do. That's how we want to operate this Company. It's how we stiff up, it's slow that ultimately I could see the majority for sure being under our control, but that will take time, several years at least.
DM
Donald McLee
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
Fair enough and is there any cost savings associated with that movement.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
No, I'd like a big duffle but I look at it as the wash.
DM
Donald McLee
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
Got you. And then, my only other question is around the remaining insurance recoverable amount on the balance sheet, how should we expect that to be realized over the next couple of quarters?
NN
Niall Nolan
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
Yes, I mean we will – these claims and various litigations or potential litigations or arbitrations do take time as you'd appreciate. We did receive roughly 50% of the claim in the first quarter. The claim is currently being worked on. I wouldn't commit to be received by the end of Q2, but it would be probably more likely to be in Q3 sometime at the cash flow.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
Remember the claim. There are two claims. One is the hull and machinery which is for the repairs that we've done in Singapore. We also have a lawsuit against a company for loss of hire. We don't have insurance for loss of hire, but I think we have a good case to collect a substantial portion of the revenue we lost as we were sitting in Singapore, getting the vessel repaired. That's not on our balance sheet.
DM
Donald McLee
Analyst · Donald McLee. Your line is now open sir
Got it. That’s all my questions guys. Thanks.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much indeed. [Operator Instructions] Gentlemen, there appear to be no further questions. So, I'll pass the floor back to you for closing remarks.
DB
David Butters
Analyst · the line of Doug Mavrinac. And your line is open, sir
Thank you very much. We enjoyed being with you this morning and look forward to our next meeting in three months' time. Thank you.