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Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 21, 2023

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Transcript

Randy Giveans

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Welcome to the Fourth Quarter Financial Results for 2022. We have with us Mads Peter Zacho, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Niall Nolan, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Oeyvind Lindeman, Chief Commercial Officer; and myself Randall Giveans, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development in North America. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. As we conduct today's presentation, we'll be making various forward-looking statements. These statements include but are not limited to, the future expectations, plans and prospects from both the financial and operational perspective and are based on management assumptions, forecasts and expectations as of today's date and are as subject to material risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ significantly from our forward-looking information and financial forecast. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are included in our annual and quarterly reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, I now pass the floor to Mads Peter Zacho, the company's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, Mads.

Mads Peter Zacho

Analyst

Thank you, Randy and good morning and thank you for listening in. Please go Slide number 3. Our fourth quarter came in substantially stronger than the previous quarter with revenues of $123 million EBITDA, just below $60 million and net income of $10 million. Our balance sheet is robust with cash of $153 million plus $20 million of undrawn facilities at year-end. The delivering of our balance sheet continued net debt reaching just over $700 million by year-end. This is despite us buying back shares since mid-December. We finalized our refinancing efforts for now, actually just yesterday. And currently, we have our next maturities only from 2025 and onwards. So our next discussions with our banks will certainly be around growth projects. Commercially, our utilization came in just over 94% in Q4 compared to our guidance of above 90% and above the 91% reached in Q4 2021. Terminal throughput was 263,000 tonnes in Q1 that ran above the nameplate capacity which, as you may recall, for now is about 1 million tonnes per year. Seaborne ammonia transport was strong and we had 10 vessels transporting ammonia during the quarter. Fortunately, we'll grow our vessel capacity through the acquisition of 5 secondhand vessels, vessels that we know really well because we have commercially managed them over the past few years. We expect to take over all 5 a bit faster than what we had previously announced, most likely will be done by April. And that's great, of course, in the current market which is pretty robust. Our joint venture with Enterprise successfully continues to develop. We continue to run at capacity and we have great plans for expanding the terminal and Randy will talk to that in a little bit. The outlook seems right for now, Q1 is almost over and we've seen height utilization above 95% so far this quarter. The terminal throughput in Q1 is expected to be strong again at around 260,000 tonnes and ethylene is in high demand in both Europe and Asia. Handysize rates have gradually firmed and Oeyvind will talk a little bit more about those in just a few minutes. So, I guess this makes us confident that our financial performance in Q1 of this year is going to be robust. This current healthy demand for seaborne gas transport is well complemented by modest handysize vessel order book and also an aging global fleet. So with that intro, I'll just leave it to Niall who will take you through the financial results from the last quarter. Please, Niall.

Niall Nolan

Analyst

Thank you, Mads and good morning to everybody. As we show here on Slide 6, the net income and EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $10 million and $59.4 million, respectively, an improvement on the third quarter of 2022, giving a trajectory that is expected to continue into 2023. The total operating revenues for the fourth quarter were $123.3 million, $9 million less than the $132.3 million for the comparative fourth quarter of last year was $16.5 million higher than the $106.8 million achieved in the third quarter of 2022. The $9 million decrease for the comparative fourth quarter was threefold. First, we had a lower contribution of $7 million from the smaller -- the 9 smaller vessels we have in the Unigas pool. Second, there was a decrease of $5 million as a result of pass-through voyage costs as a result of having more vessels on time charters than spot charters of the comparative period. And thirdly, $1.7 million as a result of having 84 less available days during the fourth quarter of '22 relative to the fourth quarter of 2021. However, these decreases were offset by an increase of $4 million as a result of increasing charter rates which rose from just under -- just over -- sorry, just under $22,500 per day for the fourth quarter of 2021 to $23,621 per day for the fourth quarter of '22, an increase of $1,100 per vessel per day, as well as an increase of $2.6 million as a result of increased utilization which, as Mads said, has increased from 91.4% for the fourth quarter of 2021 to 94.1% for the most recent quarter. We had 3 vessels in dry dock for the scheduled surveys during the fourth quarter, taking a total -- taking the total number of dry dockings…

Oeyvind Lindeman

Analyst

Thank you, Niall and good morning, all. If you move to Slide 12, we can see that EIA is showing an increase in American LPG exports during the fourth quarter of '22. Despite a decrease in natural gas liquids production during the month of December, the winter storm Elliott disrupted some of the NGL production at that time. However, this is now more or less back up to where it was pre-storm. Despite the lower production, LPG exports grew during the period. This can be explained by an unseasonably high LPG inventory in the States, combined with very low domestic consumption. U.S. propane exports continue to rise into 2023. And we can also see that for the handysize segment, where the exports followed suit with increased for the March of this year. Propane is widening its competitiveness compared to oil. Both energy consumers and petrochemical consumers are looking to LPG due to his current price competitiveness, a widening gap between propane and oil favors demand centers which are able to switch between the two. Similar trends can also be applied to American ethane and ethylene which we can see on Page 13. That excess production of ethane translates to a fantastically competitive base for domestic and international ethylene producers. Argus is quoting market price for 1 tonne of ethane at $180 a tonne at the beginning of March. This favors producers utilizing ethane as feedstock in their production of ethylene. The American ethylene arbitrage to both Europe and Asia is widening. The price differentials have been increasing over the last few months and physical exports have been heading to both continents across the Atlantic Ocean and across the Pacific Ocean via the Panama Canal. The ethylene export terminal is running at nameplate capacity and we expect this to remain for…

Randy Giveans

Operator

Thank you, Oeyvind. So following up on several announcements made in late 2022, we want to provide additional details on recent developments regarding 3 of those announcements. So starting on Slide 19. Our fleet renewal program is making significant progress as we are selling our oldest vessels and replacing them with modern second-hand tonnage. Starting with [indiscernible]. On November 23, 2022, we sold our oldest test, Navigator Magellan, a 1998 built, 22,000 cbm LPG carrier from a third party for $12.7 million. We have these vessels with only 4 vessels built prior to 2008 or in the year 2000. And we continue to engage buyers for showing interest to acquire 4 vessels above 20 years of age. On the acquisition side, in September of 2022, Navigator Holdings announced that we entered into a joint venture agreement with Greater Bay Gas Company to acquire 5 ethylene-capable vessels. Following this announcement, our new joint venture owned 60% by Navigator and 40% by Greater Bay Gas, has already taken delivery of 2 of 5 vessels thus far and the remaining 3 vessels are expected to be delivered in the coming weeks earlier than previously expected. As a reminder, the total cost will be $233 million and 65% will be financed by the $151 million bank from with 60% of the remaining costs, roughly $50 million payable from available cash. On Slide 20, we want to provide an update on our share repurchase program. In October of 2022, we announced the Board's authorization for a share repurchase program of up to $50 million of NTTS common stock to be implemented on via open negotiated transactions or in accordance with an approved trading plan. Now following the repayment of the bonds in December, we commenced the share buyback program. And through March 17, we have…

Mads Peter Zacho

Analyst

Thank you, Randy. And yes, we will go back -- we'll go to Q&A shortly thereafter but just allow me to say a few words. And the main conclusion at least for me now is that Navigator is in a good place right now. Our earnings haven't quite reached the level we would want but the direction is clearly on an in built trend. The balance sheet is in its best shape ever with an appropriate level of net debt. And we've recently financed the loan portfolio giving us a long runway until the next maturities come in 2025. This gives us capacity for further growth and also redistributing capital through the ongoing share buyback which we're halfway through. Commercially, the trend is good with high utilization of our fleet. Terminal throughput is at full capacity and we see a good demand mix amongst our main transported commodities. We expect that Q1 '23 will continue the recent improving trend and show an EBITDA that's higher than any time before. Beyond Q1, we'll continue to grow our company with the ethylene export terminal expansion. We'll also continue to identify accretive investment projects to bend our portfolio. We are particularly excited about opportunities that we expect will materialize within transportation of green or blue ammonia as well as CO2, complementing our robust existing business with growth opportunities supporting the energy transition will take Navigator on a truly sustainable path. Thank you. And back to you, Randy.

Randy Giveans

Operator

Thank you, Mads. So with that, we'll turn over to some Q&A. Operator, please allow the first caller.

Ben Nolan

Analyst

Can you hear me? Am I on?

Randy Giveans

Operator

We can. How do you Ben? How are you?

Ben Nolan

Analyst

I can't hear you. All right. Well, I'll ask my question and maybe it will -- so -- the first is it relates to the expansion. By my math, at the low end, it would add demand for at least probably half a dozen new ethylene-capable handysize vessels and at the high end, probably more than 20. The fleet is fully deployed. I think even although the 17,000 vessels are fully deployed across the industry. There's really nothing on order. How are we going to move all of the ethylene once it's ready to be produced next year?

Oeyvind Lindeman

Analyst

So Ben, there is an interchangeability between ethane and ethylene. So I think there at least in the beginning will be a competition for moving ethane out of North America and ethylene, favoring the folks with ships that can transport either one, Navigator and others. So that is -- there are enough ships today that can carry all that ethylene but that is the detrimental on the ethane side. So there will be -- there'll be a little bit puzzle between the 2. But that's in the first instance.

Mads Peter Zacho

Analyst

And I can say maybe, Ben, also from my side here that maybe we're a little bit less worried about that. I mean we've seen rates for ethylene capable ships being relatively low, delivering a relatively modest return for all participants in the ethylene gas sector for a very, very long time. I mean, first of all, that needs to rectify itself so that the providers of that services are going to have a reasonable return on the shipping fleet. So there's still a number of ships that are -- that are capable of transporting ethylene that from time to time also transport some of the other commodities. And I think we'll just see a little bit of, you could say, adjustments so that they will do what they were built to do which is transporting ethylene over time.

Randy Giveans

Operator

All right. We'll take our next question.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Randy, it's Omar. Am I coming through it okay?

Randy Giveans

Operator

Loud and clear, Omar.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Good. Good. Nice to see you yesterday. Yes, I just wanted to ask about a bit further on the terminal. And I guess you mentioned next week, we'll get some more info on that. So I'll look for that. But I just wanted to ask in terms of the offtake agreements you're discussing with your customers, how are they looking relative? Or how are they -- these discussions developing in terms of, say, duration? And I'm sure you won't be able to comment too much, I guess, about the tariff but I guess in duration, how do those compare relative to what you have on your existing volumes?

Randy Giveans

Operator

Sure. On the new offtake bring it, it's certainly a range where we have some portfolio players running shorter term, 1 or 2 years and certainly sound that one 5-plus years. So we expect to kind of contract that out with some range of maturities, right? So they're starting in late '24, some will roll '25, '26 and some will go until 2029 plus.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Okay. And then when you think about contracting that additional cost, so you have 1 million tonnes and you're going to get it up to 550 million with the planned CapEx spend. Is -- is it -- are you expecting to be able to contract -- you mentioned being able to contract all the volumes before the end of the construction period, would that be for the 550 million? Or is that for the full build-out, including the additional 1 million?

Randy Giveans

Operator

Yes. I think it's a majority price. So we'll have at least 1.55 million tonnes of capacity. I know our partner and I spoke, would like to see at least 80%, to make 90% of that contracted, obviously, making some upside for spot cargoes which we have the expansion anyway. But I would expect that 90% number for the full 1.55 million to kind of be the goal for contracts.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Okay. And then just wanted to follow up separately. Final question. Just kind of on the shipping market itself, you guys gave a pretty good update and clearly, there's been a big bounce back in the Handysize shipping segment here. And definitely, in the fourth quarter relative to the third, we're seeing longer distances for the U.S. exports towards Asia versus Europe like it was in the third. Just wanted to ask, how are you seeing things developing now? I know you gave some color in your opening comments. I just wanted to see how are those distances going currently? And then is there any risk or anything that you see in the horizon that would shift those back towards more shorter haul trades into the European market?

Oeyvind Lindeman

Analyst

If this is specifically linked to ethylene, we're booking ethylene ship freight from the U.S. for April and May already. And the indications are that it will continue to go to Asia which is great. Some is going to Europe because there's a big arbitrage to Europe as well. So it's a little bit of who can pay the most in the ethylene freight game. But definitely, the trend continues to go to include Asia Pacific destinations.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Great. All right. Well, thank you. I appreciate the color and looking forward to next quarter, it sounds like it's going to be a record figure.

Randy Giveans

Operator

Thanks, Omar. Any other questions? Okay, everyone on the line on our or then maybe to you, can you give an update for where TCE rates are now and maybe your expectation for the rest of 2023?

Oeyvind Lindeman

Analyst

On the -- we had some color commentary in the prepared remarks. On time charter rates, the renewals we are doing at the moment or in 2023 has been repriced at or above the assessment that we are showing. So that is clearly an improvement from where we have been over the last 2, 3, 4 years; so that is great to see. On the spot side, we are reducing -- or we're increasing our spot exposure because we think the fundamentals are there, justifying that slight adjustment. So the spot rates depends very much, as I mentioned, the time, the area and the cargo. So that has a bigger variation volatility than the time charter rates. But in combination, if you combine it all, it is better than what we've seen for a long time.

Randy Giveans

Operator

Excellent. And then last question for Niall. After this quarter, share repurchases, what is the diluted outstanding share?

Niall Nolan

Analyst

The quarter, as you mentioned in your remarks, Randy, the quarter -- or the share repurchase scheme only started mid-December. So the number of shares bought in December was not a whole lot less than 0.5 million shares. We have -- up to date, we have about 2 million shares purchased. So it's 2 million less than that, given that just towards the beginning of the year, so around 75 million.

Oeyvind Lindeman

Analyst

And that's, of course, with any potential completion of the program will take another if it was the same average price, of course, it would be another 2 million. So you need to add that in because the idea is that we have the full $50 million. And so far, we are heading in that direction.

Randy Giveans

Operator

Well, thanks. That is it for the Q&A. Thank you again for all of those who joined us. We will be back likely in mid-May for our 1Q '23 results. So looking forward to seeing you then and feel free to reach out with any questions. Have a great day.