Jonathan R. Symonds
Analyst · Barclays
Thank you, Joe, and good afternoon or good morning, everyone. So another quarter passes, and by and large, it's gone pretty well. In 4 more quarters, you'll begin to see what the true potential of this business is in the second half of next year. So you can see here on Slide 17 the numbers for the quarter in constant currency. Sales grew by 1% for the quarter and were flat for the 6 months. Core operating income declined by 3% in the quarter and by 5% for the 6 months. You'll notice that core EPS declined by the same amount as core operating income in the quarter now that we have passed the anniversary of the Alcon's merger and the issues of shares that followed that. And free cash flow for the quarter was $2.3 billion and $4.4 billion for the 6 months. Slide 18 gives you the detailed reconciliation between the core results and the reported results. For the quarter, you see that there was really very little distortion from exceptional items as there was very little difference between the exceptional income of $191 million and the exceptional charges of 230 -- $203 million. It was a different picture last year when we had both higher exceptional income from divestments, as well as higher exceptional charges from both impairments and from legal settlements. I won't go into any more detail on this slide as I hope for you the table is clear. If it is not, you can ask later. While talking about the business as a whole, I want to, over the next 2 slides, look at currency. As you can see from Slide 19, the last year has been very volatile, especially if you look at quarter 2 last year where it was 8% positive on sales, and quarter 2 this year where it was 5 percentage points negative. A 13-point swing over the course of the year is really quite extraordinary. On profit, it's been a slightly different story, less volatile, which is what you would expect, but nonetheless stubbornly negative. It's difficult to boil all of this down to a simple explanation. But broadly, there are 2 factors. One is the extreme movements of a year ago which particularly affected the euro and Swiss francs, which is still working through its base. As we get into the second half, this effect should be neutralized as the current peg rate of 1.20 will be in the base, meaning that the natural hedging effects of euro profits and Swiss franc costs should be visible again. However, the second factor is probably more relevant now, and that's the dollar strengthening against many other currencies in the last few months. As there is a different mix of sales by currency and profits by currency, this trend has had a more negative impact. What I've just said is broadly laid out on Slide 20. And the key point here is expressed in the final bullet point, where you can see that we now expect the negative impact of currency for the year as a whole on both sales and operating profits to be about 1 percentage point higher than we were expecting in quarter 1. So turning now to the results for the quarter. And you can see on Slide 21 the disaggregation of the top line for the group. It shows that the base, which should be no surprise to you, a healthy underlying growth of 5%. And as we get into the second half of next year, this should become more visible in our reported results, as some of the factors in this analysis begin to diminish. David will show you shortly how this picture looks for the Pharma division, and it's even more impressive. Slide 22 is, in my view, the most important slide, as it demonstrates where the underlying momentum comes from. Overall, this group of products account for nearly 30% of our revenues. And as Joe has already shown you, few of our peers can get anywhere near this level. Pharma continues to be a very important component to this with another 30% growth over the 6 months. Although it has a different -- completely different product development cycle, you should not ignore the increasing contribution that Alcon is making to our new product growth. You can also see here the impact of the shorter product cycles in Sandoz and the benefit from enoxaparin in the authorized generics last year, which has depressed the overall growth rate this year. I think the extraordinary contribution that we've had from enoxaparin has now run its course as the competition continues to drag prices down even in the absence of new competitors. So if recently launched products are one dimension of our performance, the other side is shown here on Slide 23, and that's the impact of generics. You can see that the evolution over the last 6 months where we face generic competition to Femara and, since the latter part of last year, to Diovan in Europe. This quarter, we've tried to give you a picture as to how we expect the impacts of generics to unfold over 2013. This should contain no surprises to you. But you can see that the next few quarters will be challenging as we begin to face generic competition to Diovan in the U.S. from the end of September. What is also clear from this chart is that by the time we get to the second half of next year, the impact will largely be in the rearview mirror. You'll also note that compared to the picture I showed you last quarter, the impact of generics in 2012 is less than we first thought. As a couple of the -- as for a couple of products, we benefited from a shortage of generic buy. Slide 24 puts these 2 things together and shows for the Pharma division why its top line is being so robust in the face of generic competition. I think it also illustrates why 2013 is going to be a story of 2 halves. So hopefully you have a good picture of what the moving parts on the top line are now. Let me now turn to margins on Slide 25. And in a moment, I'll talk about productivity. Most of you have already identified that, as with the first quarter, the profitability trends would be a story of margin improvement in Pharma and Alcon, which they have achieved again, adding 80 basis points to the group margin and offsetting this margin erosion in Sandoz and Consumer Health. The Sandoz story for the quarter will inevitably concentrate on 3 things: lower sales of enoxaparin in the U.S., which created the highest quarterly profit margin last year; the declining market in Germany; and the burden of quality remediation costs and the resulting lower production levels. But behind this, there are some excellent regional performances, especially in the rest of Western Europe and biosimilars, where sales grew by 39% and where we further strengthened our leading position in this important category. The second half should be better for Sandoz, as enoxaparin started to face additional competition in the second half of last year. So we'll be comparing to a lower base than was the case in the first half. The Consumer Health performance is really all about Lincoln and the slow resumption of production. And Joe's already given you a current update on Lincoln. So if I now look ahead and reflect on the margin for the year, Joe has already mentioned that with the scale of the new product opportunities ahead of us, we have decided to increase the amount of investment behind our products and development projects so that we get the right balance of profit today and investment for growth tomorrow. So what does it mean? In truth, it's not very dramatic and it doesn't change our overall guidance of a constant currency core operating margin slightly below last year. However, we would now interpret this as a bit more than 1 percentage point of margin decline. We've been measuring productivity for some time to ensure that all parts of the business have the discipline to create the resources that are necessary to sustain longer-term performance and improve profitability. Slide 26 shows you the contribution from these measures in the quarter and for the year-to-date. There are a lot of individual initiatives here, some of which commenced in the quarter. But most of them have been layered in over the last year or 2. Overall, the projects are delivering well within -- well with the 4.3 percentage points of benefit generated in the 6 months and 5 percentage points for the quarter. Procurement savings, of which we've spoken of for some time, are a major component, and we continue to find new opportunities to exploit. These, together with benefits from the manufacturing footprint project and ongoing shift in resource allocations, enabled us to continue to deliver benefits. And for example, in this quarter, we started to realize the benefits from the U.S. field force restructuring, which we announced at the beginning of the year. So overall, if you look at how productivity benefited each division, for Pharma we've been able to improve the core margins for the 6 months by 60 basis points, continue to invest in the recently launched products and absorb the mix effects from generic competition on the gross margin. For Alcon, the synergies arising from the integration programs have improved margins by 60 basis points and enabled a launch of Dailies Total 1 and make further investments in emerging market expansion. For Sandoz, we've been able to absorb the impact of price erosion but not obviously the full impact of the low enoxaparin sales and quality remediation costs. And not surprisingly here, Consumer Health has been unable to recover the loss of sales from Lincoln. Finally, turning to cash flow and net debt. On Slide 27, we see the evolution of cash flow for the quarter and for the 6 months. I won't go through all of the details here, but for the quarter, you can see the impact of payments out of provisions, as well as the absence of divestments proceeds. And this picture will continue through the year, especially as we continue to cash our previously made provisions and as CapEx begins to build and will become more of a feature in the second half. Finally, to net debt, and Slide 28 shows you the movements for the quarter and for the half year. Again, it should be relatively self-explanatory and it shows how the quarter's free cash flow has reduced net debt from $19.2 billion at the beginning of the quarter to $16.5 billion at the end. So with that, I hope you see that quarter 2 is another solid performance on our journey. I believe we continue to execute well on the top line and are focused on generating resources from productivity to protect ourselves from the impact of generic competition while also sustaining the investments the business needs to continue to grow. And with that, I'll now pass you over to David and the Pharma performance.