Eric D. Hammes
Analyst · Jon Block from Stifel
Yes. Yes. Excellent. So let me do that in 2 shots, Jon. Let me just talk first on core growth and then on margins and fully understand the spirit of the question, too. So if you just look at the -- our guidance, I'll just talk midpoint of our guide, which is where we see our full year. We should be about 1 point better in terms of core growth in the second half. And I'd say there's really 3 big moving pieces within there. One is our Spark Deferral. So effectively flat year-on-year in terms of the deferral change that we've been laying all the breadcrumbs for every quarter. That will be about a $30 million benefit in the second half year-over-year, with a significant majority, call it, 80% in Q3, which ultimately yields about a 2-point benefit in terms of growth. So that's, call it, a tailwind for us. We talked in the preread remarks about buy ahead. We estimate that our Q2 buy ahead of our announced price increases, which were earlier in the quarter. We're about a $10 million benefit. We think that comes back largely in Q3, maybe a bit in Q4. So that's a point of growth going in the other direction. And then just be mindful that our first half growth was held up by about 1 point in Dental Consumables' favorable comp. That was based on us really bringing the dealer inventory channel last year to a point of health, which all happened in the first half of last year. So those are kind of the big 3 points on the growth. If you do all that math, you'll find that the rest of our business is stable to call it, slightly improving in the second half. And then on margins, our margin guide at approximately 14%. What that means is we're about 2 points better in the second half. We would expect as we typically do seasonally that volumes are a tailwind for that. We're going to continue to drive good productivity. So as we just talked about, Spark gross margins, Spark unit costs will be on the plus side of the ledger. G&A will continue to deliver year-over-year and we expect to get a good amount of price. On a full year basis, of course, what we're really seeing here is upside versus our original margin guide on what we would call just core operations, volume, price, productivity, but FX is dilutive for us. And that's a favorable translation benefit, but it's offset fully by the first half transaction losses. And versus our original guide, that's about a 50 to 70 basis point headwind. We saw a lot of that, of course, in the first half, but it's factored into our full year guidance.